ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.05.17
Personal opinions today
The China and US trade consultation is scheduled to resume soon, and it is believed that the US trade secretary will go to Beijing for consultation before the G20 meeting in late June. Besides, U.S. jobless claims, the federal reserve's manufacturing index, and housing start data all the better than expected, bullish US dollar. The investment sentiment turned positive, with global equities rising and gold falling to $1,285. Gold prices and the JPY are also likely to fall as stocks rise on further positive news, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Chinese RMB are expected to rise again.
Today, the market is focused on the Eurozone CPI for April, which is the inflation data, the market expectation is lower than the previous value; the euro has fallen. If the data comes in better market expectations, it could stabilize the EUR. Besides, the market looked at the U.S. leading index and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index. If the U.S. economy continues to do well, it will be bullish US dollar. But the market is now pricing in the possibility that the above data could underperform. The dollar is likely to fall ahead of the announcement.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
17:00 Eurozone final monthly and annual CPI for April
22:00 US leading indicators for April
22:00 US University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for May
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1170/1.1155 support
1.1200/1.1215 resistance
US economic data yesterday, in line with expectations, bullish the US dollar. Besides, the prospect of a resumption of trade talks between China and the United States improved market sentiment, with money flowing out from the euro, which fell. The market is waiting for the Eurozone CPl data today, the market is expected to decline from last month, is also the reason why the euro fell earlier yesterday. If the Eurozone CPI in line, the euro will have a chance to keep rising on expectations that U.S. economic data will be weaker today than last month. Technically, the euro's short-term reference resistance against the dollar stood at 1.1215 and its reference support at 1.1155.
GBPUSD
1.2790/1.2735 support
1.2830/1.2855 resistance
The British prime minister has indicated he is willing to resign if the opposition party accepts a draft Brexit deal proposed. The GBPUSD continued to fall as investors' confidence in the UK was undermined by uncertainty about the political future of the UK parliament's delayed decision on a Brexit deal. But if U.S. economic data underperform today, the GBPUSD has a chance to correct the decline. Technically, there is resistance at $1.2855, which is testing a three-month low of $1.2790. If break, it will try the next level support 1.2735.
AUDUSD
0.6920/0.6940 resistance
0.6875/0.6855 support
After the escalation of the trade war between China and the United States, China and the United States imposed additional tariffs on each other. The market worried about the global economy and the decline in demand for resources, and concerned about the impact on Australian exports; the Australian dollar continued to fall. If China-US trade relationship still does not an improvement, the AUDUSD trend continues to be bearish. The New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar tend to move in the same direction, we recommend that we continue to focus on the downward trend of the Australian dollar. If AUDUSD break through 0.6855 support, the next level of support is estimated to be 0.6805.
USDJPY
109.95/110.15 resistance
109.55/109.35 support
Sino-US trade talks, the United States is planning a short-term reopening, the Dow rose, the Nikkei also rose, the trend of the dollar against the yen to follow the Nikkei trend. If market sentiment continues to improve, boosting stocks, the dollar will remain resilient against the yen. However, the trade war between China and the United States is still unresolved. It is estimated that the rise of the USDJPY will be limited at the level of 110. At present, the USDJPY continues to be the Dow and the Nikkei leading the direction of reference.
USDCAD
1.3475/1.3505 resistance
1.3425/1.3400 support
Middle East Tensions, the market worried about tight supplies of crude oil. Besides, the U.S. economic data beat expectations yesterday, led to the rise of crude oil futures prices, bullish Canadian dollar. The USDCAD is ranging between $1.3400 and $1.3500. Crude oil prices are likely to fall in anticipation of the impact of lower crude demand and believe that bearish Canadian dollar.
U.S. crude futures USOIL
62.05/61.65 support
63.85/64.05 resistance
Tensions in the Middle East and better-than-expected U.S. economic data supported higher crude oil prices but could limit gains as trade tariffs between China and the U.S. weigh on each other's crude demand. If the U.S. and China trade talks are expected to resume, it could support crude oil prices. Technically, see initial support at $62, resistance at $63.85 and resistance at $64.05.
XAUUSD
1291/1293 resistance
1284/1281 support
China and the United States trade talks are expected to resume soon, easing tensions, gold price rise limit at 1300 strength. Gold also fell on the back of better U.S. economic data that lifted the Dow Jones industrial average. Suggestions must pay attention to the China and US trade talks related news or the U.S. Dow performance. As yesterday this analysis said, if any news positive, led the stock market rebound, gold prices are expected to test support level.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25995/26210 resistance
25775/25655 support
China and the United States have separately said they intend to reopen trade talks between the two countries, with trade relations expected to ease and the Dow rising. Besides, our economic data made good, the Dow rose more than 200 points yesterday. At present, the Dow is expected to continue to rise if the China and US trade talks are resumed and the investment climate improves. Instead, tensions flared again and the Dow fell. Current reference to suggest resistance and support levels.
BTCUSD:
8150 / 8550 resistance
7750 / 7600 support
China and U.S. tension, global stock markets fell; Dow overall decline, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price broke $7500, forecast to $8000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. If contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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