Personal opinions today:

 

Trade tensions between China and the United States continue, with the market worried about slowing down global economic and damage to the U.S. economic outlook from a trade war with China. Besides, the market expected the U.S. revised first-quarter real GDP. All these factors have triggered a fall in the stock market and capital flowing to US government treasury, the Dow Jones industrial average fell. Long-term Treasury yields fell again below short-term yields, reflecting investor sentiment and capital flow into the bond market. With Treasury yields above 2 % and Treasury yields higher than gold yields, gold is less attractive and has not boosted the price of gold yet. If Treasury yields fall below 2 %, or even below 1.8 %, that could increase the gold price.

 

Focus today, on the revised annualised rate of U.S. real GDP in the first quarter and the number of jobless claims in the week ended May 25. If the real GDP of the United States in the first quarter is lower than the market expected and the number of jobless claims is higher than the market expected, it may further decline of the stock market, the fall of bond yields, the fall of the dollar and the rise of the gold price. 

 

Canada reported a first-quarter current account deficit that was expected to widen to $18 billion, a bearish for the Canadian dollar. Investors note that the market has already reacted to the bearish sentiment earlier this week, prices in already. If the data is not dropped too much, the market sentiment may improve, and USDCAD reverse after the data results are released.

 

[Important financial data and events concerned]

20:30 US the revised real GDP in the first quarter

20:30 US Initial jobless claims in the week

20:30 Canada the first quarter current account

22:00 US Existing home sales index in April

22:30 EIA crude oil inventories for the week

 

Today suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1125/1.1105 support

1.1165/1.1185 resistance

The European Union on Italy for running a deficit lost investor confidence. The euro fell as markets sold off Italian bonds, investors to sell other European Union bonds as well. Although, the euro fell, today the United States release the first quarter real GDP revision, the market expected to fall, the dollar may fall, bullish euro. Technically, the resistance of 1.1165 and 1.1185 is estimated the support at 1.1105, near a week low.

 

GBPUSD 

1.2660/1.2680 resistance

1.2605/1.2585 support

Next week will see a vote in the British parliament for a fourth Brexit. Believe that the risk of a hard Brexit of the UK has increased, there are financial institutions analysis, the pound may fall to 1.20, and may even try to 1.10. Technically, GBPUSD resistance is 1.2660 and 1.2680. The trend continues to downward, estimates under 1.2605 and 1.2585 support.

 

AUDUSD

0.6930/0.6945 resistance

0.6900/0.6880 support

The trade war between China and the United States has not subsided, affecting Australia's economic outlook, bearish Australian dollar. But the Australian dollar held steady at 0.69 on expectations of a similar recession in the United States. Technically, there are still downside risks to the AUDUSD. Focus on the U.S. first-quarter real GDP today. If the data weaken over market expected, USD fall, bullish AUD and NZD.

 

USDJPY 

109.75/109.90 resistance

109.30/109.15 support

The Dow Jones industrial average continued to fall, Japanese stocks followed the step, and the USDJPY fell to 109.15, near a three-month low. The trade war between China and the United States has raised concerns about investor sentiment. If the stock market continues to fall, USDJPY may follow. Today, the United States announced the first quarter of real GDP, if significantly lower than expected, estimated that the Dow and the Nikkei index fluctuations, the USDJPY also fluctuated, and follow the direction of the Dow and Nikkei.

 

USDCAD 

1.3515/1.3535 resistance

1.3485/1.3465 support

The Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada kept interested rates unchanged. The BoC said it was worried about the future economic outlook and investment sentiment was cautious. U.S. crude stocks have fallen sharply, lifting crude prices to $59 and bullish the Canadian dollar. Focus today, crude oil prices and the U.S. first-quarter real GDP results. If the U.S. dollar falls, USDCAD may test 1.3485 or below.

 

Us crude futures USOIL 

59.25/59.75 resistance

58.40/57.85 support

The trade war between China and the United States investment and production confidence lost, and crude oil demand has dropped. Luckily, U.S. API crude oil inventories fell over expected, crude oil prices rebounded. Technically, crude oil prices tested resistance at $59.05 before further testing resistance at $59.75. But crude oil demand fell in the face of a likely deepening slowdown in real U.S. GDP in the first quarter. Estimated crude oil prices failed to break through resistance; then it expects support below 58.40 and $57.85 support.

 

XAUUSD 

1278/1276 support

1285/1287 resistance

The trade war between China and the United States is tense and is expected to depress the U.S. economy. The first quarter of U.S. real GDP is notable today, and should the results come in much lower than expected; the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, boosting gold prices. However, at present, the capital funds first flow into the US Treasury bonds, with higher income, the price of gold fell. But estimates suggest that gold prices could eventually be triggered by falling us and global stock markets and further declines in bond yields as a result of the trade war It is recommended to refer to 1278 and 1276 for support and 1285 and 1287 for resistance.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

25315/25480 resistance

24900/24750 support

Markets are watching for the release of revised first-quarter real GDP figures in the United States, with the broad market expecting a decline. If the fall is deeper than the market estimates, the Dow could fall further. If in line with expectations, believe the Dow has a chance to rebound. At the moment, the key of trade talks between China and the United States, blocking the Dow uptrend. Currently recommended resistance is 25315 and 25480. Support 24900 and 24750.

 

BTCUSD:

8950 / 9250 resistance

8550 / 8300 support

Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed will not be intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price breakthrough $8000 and probably reach to $9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend. 

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.