Personal opinions today:

 

US June inflation, in line with market expectations. The monthly core inflation rate beat market expectations by 0.3 per cent. Yesterday, this noted that if the monthly U.S. consumer price index rose sharply above market expectations of 0.2 percent in June and edged closer to 1 percent inflation, the dollar could rebound sharply. So far the result has been only month-on-month growth, with little rebound in the dollar. The dollar index rose to 97 from 96.7. The dollar rose, while adjusted prices for gold and crude oil fell relative to other currencies. The federal reserve chairman Powell in the hearing presentation, Powell once again expressed concern about the U.S. inflation and economic downside risks, hinted that if the U.S. economy changes, ready to make monetary policy adjustments. Once again, the market will judge the fed's monetary policy and change the value of the dollar in response to U.S. economic data.

 

Next week, U.S. regional manufacturing indexes, retail sales and the US beige book will be released. Markets move the dollar based on forecasts and results. First up today are Japan  industrial output and China trade account. The data will affect the Japanese yen and other Asian currencies, particularly the Chinese RMB and the closely linked Australian and New Zealand dollars. It also has an impact on crude oil prices. In addition, U.S. June PPI and core PPI data are likely to influence the performance of the dollar and U.S. stocks. More attention should be paid to the governor of the bank of Italy and the bank of Italy's quarterly economic bulletin. The news will have a very important impact on the euro and the rest of Europe. Any expected improvement in Italy's economy could boost the euro and further hurt gold prices.

 

[Important financial data and events]

 

12:00 Japanese industrial output for May

15:00 China trade account for June

16:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report

17:00 Eurozone industrial output for May

17:00 European central bank of Italy speech 

20:30 U.S. June PPI and core PPI

21:00 Economic bulletin of the bank of Italy

22:00 Chicago Fed chairman Charles Evans, interviewed

 

Today suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1275/1.1300 resistance

1.1240/1.1225 support

The US Core inflation beat market expectations by 0.3 per cent in June. Federal reserve chairman Powell said that Fed watches the economy closely and judges monetary policy. Just in time, U.S. inflation rose in June, lowering expectations of a rate cut. The dollar rose and European currencies fell. The market was particularly focused today on a speech by the governor of the bank of Italy and the bank of Italy's quarterly economic bulletin. An upbeat economic outlook could boost the euro. Second, keep an eye on U.S. June PPI and core PPI data. Technically, the euro's key resistance levels of 1.1275 and 1.1300 are still persistent. With only more good news to stimulate it, the euro could break through that resistance. Reference support bit 1.1240, significant support bit 1.1225.

 

GBPUSD 

1.2545/1.2560 resistance

1.2480/1.2465 support

The dollar fell and the British pound rose as markets considered a rate cut by the federal reserve. But U.S. inflation still beat market expectations. Fed may cut interest rates eased and British pound fell. But further questions, such as the popularity of Britain's next prime minister, Johnson, have raised the prospect of further delays. The Brexit does not improve, the trend of GBP will continue to fall. Technically, the trend may still test 1.2425. Resistance levels can be referenced at 1.2545 and 1.2560.

 

AUDUSD 

0.6955/0.6940 support

0.6995/0.7010 resistance

U.S. federal reserve chairman Powell left open the possibility of a rate cut, while the dollar's gains were capped, creating a rise in the Australian dollar. More importantly, the trade relations ease, indirectly bullish Australian dollars. It is worth watching today's release of June PPI and FOMC voting members, federal Chicago chairman Evans interview content, may affect the us dollar, indirectly affect the Australian dollar. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the resistance of 0.6995 and 0.7010. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, continue to influence the trend of the New Zealand dollar.

 

USDJPY 

108.30/108.15 support

108.60/108.80 resistance

The dollar stalled at 108.59 yen after federal reserve chairman colin Powell confirmed at the Fed was keeping expectations of a rate cut and limiting the dollar. Technically, close to the short - term rebound ratio of 61.8%. Today's focus is on Japan industrial output and China trade account. U.S. trading hours, the June PPI and core PPI, as well as the FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed chairman Charles. More important to pay attention to the trend of the Dow, the indirect impact of the USDJPY.

 

USDCAD 

1.3055/1.3035 support

1.3115/1.3135 resistance

The Bank of Canada has left interest rates unchanged, with the market believing it will keep its options open until next month. The chairman of the federal reserve said the fed still has an opportunity to consider a rate cut. On the other hand, the USDCAD can return to 1.3055 and test the recent low support of 1.3035. At present, Canadian economic data and US economic data still need to be observed. At present, if the crude oil price rise, will possibly strengthen the Canadian dollar, the suggestion maintains the attention.

 

US crude oil futures

60.85/61.30 resistance

59.70/58.85 support

U.S. API crude oil inventory reduction, the Mexico storm, OPEC production cuts, bullish crude oil prices. Federal reserve chairman Powell's speech further confirmed that the federal reserve continues to consider interest rate cuts, let the crude oil prices rose further. Technically, after the breakthrough of the important resistance of 59.30, the first resistance of 60.85, the current focus on the next resistance, US61.30. If fail to upward, it would be test the first reference support at $59.70 and $58.85.

 

XAUUSD 

1415/1417 resistance

1401/1399 support

U.S. inflation rose in June, while gold prices fell. Yesterday, this analysis noted that if U.S. inflation rose more than expected in June, watch for the gold prices fall. Gold prices are likely to be volatile and should be noted for risk management. Please note the news related to the trade consultation and June’s PPI in the US. Moreover, the committee on the FOMC, Charles Evans, is giving an interview that could cause gold price volatility.

 

U.S. Dow Jones futures US30

27255/27405 resistance

27005/26895 support

U.S. inflation data rose in June, the Dow rose. Increasing sentiment for stock market, Dow break 27000 and close above this level. Currently, the Dow has broken through the technical resistance of 27005, seems uptrend. But please note the news related to the trade consultation and June’s PPI in the US. Moreover, the committee on the FOMC, Charles Evans, is giving an interview that could cause stock market volatility.

 

BTCUSD:

11750 / 11950 resistance

10750 / 10550 support

As mentioned this week, the China and U.S. trade tensions cool down. US non-farm payroll over the market expected, the Fed may not cut rate in this month. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Technically, the critical resistance lower to US12000, seeks the support. First reference support looking at 10550.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.