Investment Highlights

• October 2019 TIV was up 24% MoM and 14% YoY to 53.9K units. We believe that the higher sales volume in October this year was due to a longer working month and year-end promotional campaigns. Cumulatively, 10M19 TIV was down 1% to 496.9K units from 502.1K units in 10M18.

• We note the following for major car marques’ October sales figures:
  
  1) Perodua registered a total sales volume of 22.8K units (+34% MoM, +17% YoY). The Aruz SUV continued its strong position as the most popular SUV in Malaysia with 2.2K units sold for the month. YTD for 10M19, 24.4K units of the Aruz have been sold, ahead of its nearest competitor the Proton X70 at 22.2K units sold. In 10M19, 201.6K units of Perodua have been sold and it is well on track to achieve its full-year 2019 sales target of 235.0K units.
  
  2) Proton delivered 9.5K units (+9% MoM, +87% YoY) in October, including 1.7K units sold for the X70. The total 10M19 sales for Proton stood at 79.4K units, recording a YoY growth of 61%. Proton maintained its position as runner-up in terms of YTD market share at 16.0%, ahead of Honda’s 14.4%. A total of 4.3K units of Proton Saga were sold in October, while for the 10M19 total units sold were 30.3K units (+26% YoY). Additionally, four new 3S/4S outlets has been added to the dealer network in October. Proton now has 108 3S/4S outlets.
  
  3) Honda sold a decent 6.4K units (+11% MoM, -12% YoY). YTD, Honda sold a total of 87.1K units compared to 75.0K units in 10M18. Honda’s YTD market share of 14.9% anchored its position in the third place behind national carmakers Proton and Perodua. The 10th-generation Honda Civic 2019 facelift is currently open for bookings nationwide with a tentative launch in 4QCY2019. It will be priced from RM108.2K to RM128.7K.
  
  4) Toyota sold 6.5K units (+23% MoM, +36% YoY) in October. The UMWH management highlighted that Toyota’s top three best-selling models for the month is the volume-driven Vios, Hilux and Yaris, comprising of circa 72% of total sales. We continue to be apprehensive on Toyota’s outlook in CY2020 due to our expectations of lower new launches next year while we anticipate competition to heighten in the passenger vehicle space with the expected launch of the all-new Nissan N18 Almera and the Honda City 2020. It is important to note that these two models serve as direct competitors to the Toyota Vios.
  
  5) Mazda’s sales normalized after hitting a multi-year low in September, registering a total of 1.0K units (+122% MoM, - 39% YoY) in October. We believe that the monthly sales volume would hover around this level for the upcoming months, with the recent launch of its CX-5 facelift and the all-new CX-8. Upcoming launches this year for Mazda include the CX- 30 (December) and possibly the CX-3 CBU. This will be supportive of Bermaz’s earnings in 2HFY20. The CX-5 is priced from RM134.0K to RM178.0K in five variants while the CX-8 is priced from RM176.0K to RM214.0K in four variants.
   
• The approval rate for loans on passenger cars slipped to 63.3% in September, a decrease of 0.3% from August but was higher than the average rate of 59.6% in 2018.
• We continue to be optimistic on the national car marques Proton and Perodua while we stay cautious on the foreign and premium car brands as consumers change their preferences towards cheaper and better value-for-money vehicles.

• Our top picks are DRB-Hicom (FV: RM3.18) and MBM Resources (FV: RM5.54) as they ride on the strong sales of Proton and Perodua vehicles which command the bulk of the market share in terms of TIV sales.

Source: AmInvest Research - 28 Nov 2019