Consistent Dividend-Focus Long term Investing

First 10 years as an “Investor” or that’s what I thought I was doing (2002-2012)

Value Investor Coo1eo
Publish date: Fri, 23 Feb 2018, 05:46 PM
Dateline: Feb 1 2018 - After close to 5 years of reading blogs and articles online here on i3investor it time for me to start writing and sharing, my way of giving back.
I am very passionate about Investing. It's in my DNA.

Dear Fellow Investors / Readers,

After getting a lot of encouragement from the 1st blog post, I pondered on what to write in my 2nd Blog here at i3investor.

I do not want to start “lecturing” and giving free unsolicited advice or stock tips on how you should invest in the market or manage your personal finance. After all, I am no super investor or Guru (think: Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, John Templeton or Carl Icahn) even though I have been inspired by many of these great individuals and have tremendous amount of respect for them.

Instead, I think I will share with you my journey beginning as a rookie speculator (not investor) and how I grew and groomed into what I consider myself today: “Consistent Dividend Focus Long Term Investor”

It is through my journey in the market that I found my identity which is 6 words long to describe myself. Long title, but each word is very meaningful.

I will explain that meaning that I found for each of these 6 words, in 4 parts.

Let us start with the word “Investor”

When I started out, like most retailers in Bursa (KLSE back then) I was not investing (although I thought I was).

These days, some people take offense when I say that they are not investing. Many youngsters (and oldies alike) think they are investing when they buy and sell shares or properties or Cryptocurrencies. I do not mean to offend anyone, but only want to spread the awareness to a large population out there that are speculating but think they are investing.

So, what’s the difference between investing (an investor) and speculating (a speculator)?

             Is it the time horizon? Is it the type of shares? Is it the amount you buy?

To date, the best analogy and description I got to differentiate an investor from the rest goes as follows (extracted from Investopedia) –

” Speculators are forever trying to be smarter than the market. Investors simply participate in the markets. Speculating is akin to gambling. Investing is like going to work.”
 

There is this example given in this story –

Amy uses the $100 to buy lemons, sugar, an old table, and some poster board and sets up a lemonade stand on a busy road. Business is brisk, and she reinvests her profits by buying more supplies. By the end of the summer she has turned $100 into $500. Some days (rainy, cool days) business was slow, some days (the hot sunny ones) it was brisk. She was never discouraged. She did not throw up her hands on the first rainy day and say "no one is ever going to buy lemonade again - I'm going to sell my stand".  She is an investor. 

Johnny on the other hand goes and spends his entire $100 buying lemons, which he hopes to sell to Amy next week at a higher price. He heard the price of lemons will go up because the forecast is calling for record heat and lemonade is popular in the hot weather. Lo and behold, the forecast is wrong, the price of lemons drops, and Johnny is wiped out. Johnny is a speculator.  

In the story above, Amy starts a business (investing) by carefully allocating her capital of $100 to buy lemon, sugar etc (diversify). In doing this, she is managing her risk. Johnny, on the other hand decides to speculate and put all his capital into lemons, taking the high-risk approach. Amy does the “hard work” and to make and sell the lemonade earning “small profit”, while Johnny decides to wait for the “right timing” to make the “big profit”.

Any reinvest her profits(dividends) back to the business to grow and earn the sustainable income. Johnny relies on news that there will be hot weather. Amy does not get affected by price of lemons in the market as she is focus on the business, which is in her control. Price of lemons will go up and down but is not in her control. Johnny is burnt when the price of lemon drops.

Folks – if you buy and sell shares in the market considering them nothing more than a “counter” not knowing the business and company behind that “counter” or its management competency merely with the “hope” that this “counter” will get some deal/contract or market conditions will work in the favor or maybe because the “chart is showing you the signal” for a quick gain – it is mere Speculation.

However, if you invest in a company because you believe in the business and management competence and have fair knowledge of the company’s fundamentals and financial position then it is an investment.

Some quotes from the super investors (Munger, Buffett etc)

 “Investing is like watching the paint dry or the grass grow - it requires patience and perseverance, if you want the excitement, go to Vegas!”

“Investing is not easy, anyone who said it is, is stupid”

“Investing is simple, but not easy”

Not everyone has the bandwidth to spend time studying a company and analyze the business, understand the financial statements, let alone read the annual report of the company they intend to invest in.  For such people, it is then better to buy mutual funds (unit trust) or ETFs. This way, you are protected from making mistakes and will adhere to the 2 cardinal rules of investing –

Rule 1: Do NOT lose money

Rule 2: Do NOT violate Rule #1

I will stop here to conclude that buying a share just with the hope that the price will go up because the company “will win government contract” or “RM is going up/down” is mere speculation and may “win” and make you some money those trades. However, I am not sure how many times you can be successful. Market is full of syndicates and there is no way you can outsmart them.

Investing however, is very different – if you invest, especially if you go for value, you are almost guaranteed to reap the fruits of your investments and it is sustainable.

In my subsequent blogs will continue to elaborate on the next words “Long Term”, “Dividend Focus” and “Consistent”

AK 

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Discussions
6 people like this. Showing 13 of 13 comments

resilient911

Good to share..

2018-02-23 22:44

arv18

Thanks for sharing. As a fundamental, long term investor, what is your take on Marco?

Are you invested in the company? cheers.

2018-02-23 22:52

3iii

Good advice. I am eagerly waiting for your subsequent articles. Thanks for sharing.

2018-02-24 01:18

Albukhary

Very good article and very good example using.

2018-02-24 01:50

Albukhary

Amit, what is your view on trend investment, do you categorise it as investing or speculating?

For example, Amy aware that currently market consumer trend like Milk Tea, so Amy closed its lemonade business and start its Milk Tea. After 1 years, Amy see its profit margin for Milk Tea business has dropped, and Amy foresee the next market trend is healthy fruit juice, so Amy closed it milk tea business and switch all her capital to start the Healthy fruit juice business.

In the above example, Amy is investing or speculating?

2018-02-24 01:57

Jibaihosehliao

thumbs up!

2018-02-24 15:04

Amit Khindriya

@arv18 I am no invested in Marco and do not know about Marco. However, since you asked, I did a quick check.
Here is my take on Marco
Financials
- Small cap, company that has been around for close to 50 years
- Good financial fundamentals; sitting on cash pile of RM100M; debt free.
- I like that they consistently have been rewarding shareholder with dividends year after year
Business Analysis
-Past years,earnings are flat despite higher revenue
- Marco is in a tough Business position - In an age of Smart Phones, Smart cameras in phones, wearable, fitbit, i-watch, ipad and all sorts of other gizmos, Marco is trying to stay in market selling Casio watches, calculators and cameras in the consumer space.

Outlook
The business margins to be squeezed further a competition is very intense and there are so many players and new technologies.

Having said that, it all depends on what Marco's mgmt. plan to do.

Anyways, the above is just my take based on a 20min quick check, do not take my inputs literally. There is much that is unknown by me. Do your research.

2018-02-24 17:54

Amit Khindriya

@Albukhary - I think it really depends how and why Amy moves from one business to another. If she finds Milk tea giving her better returns (profit or yields) than lemonade, it means going for a business that is more profitable, and soon after move to the next (Healthy Juice) when the profits for Milk Tea drops.

You see, the purpose of any business (investment) is to maximize the returns. For as long as Amy understands the business that she is going into well, the risk and the returns it is not speculation.
If she does her homework that the new business it is more profitable and does not just follow the "fad" blindly, it is an investment.
However, if Amy just jump on the Milk tea "bandwagon" because other are doing with the "hope" to sell higher without knowing that business well, then she is speculating.

"Never fall in love with a stock, it is always important to be objective and sell when it price exceeds the intrinsic value and there is a better opportunity."
I will write about this in the future - how to appraise your investments and how to determine intrinsic value.

2018-02-24 23:06

Albukhary

Thanks Amit, really feel goods to have you share your investment methodology in this forum.

2018-02-25 00:16

arv18

THank you for taking your time Amit. Much appreciated.

We live in an age of smart phones & devices. However I've noticed that folks still need & want to own affordable, durable wristwatches.

I mean, all the smart-watches need to be charged everyday, and are insanely expensive. Not a practical or reliable proposition for the majority of folk.

My take is that the casio watch, especially G-shock business has a natural moat.

Additionally, they sell casio keyboards and electric pianos - higher margin , more expensive products. A great solution for kids who's parents aren't able to afford the real deal, but want something to practice on.

There will be furious competition online and from parallel imports. I do hope management decides what to do with that very large cash pile.

Cheers!

2018-02-25 02:34

Amit Khindriya

@arv18 - thank you for bringing Marco to my attention. It will be in my radar for now.

2018-02-25 09:10

Amit Khindriya

@Albukhary - mutually we share and learn from each other.

2018-02-25 09:31

ajim102

excellent write up

2018-02-27 18:09

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