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MYRUSD=X - will the Ringgit finally print a bottom and turnaround?

DividendGuy67
Publish date: Mon, 12 Aug 2024, 12:25 AM

Chart below for future reference only.

Key observations:

  1. A decade ago, the Ringgit is strong where 1 MYR can buy nearly 33 US cents.
  2. The downtrend is obvious with a series of LHs.  One can also draw the downtrend channel as shown.
  3. Over the past 6 months, it appears to have printed a bottom, with the Doji candlestick with long lower tail, touching the bottom of the downtrend channel, near 20 cents.  Since then, it appears to stage a recovery touching the top of the channel.
  4. It won't be easy for the Ringgit to appreciate fast if it is able to break the top of the channel - there's a lot of resistance to overcome.  Even today, besides the top of the downtrend channel, there is also the horizontal resistance connecting 2015 bottom, 2016 bottom, 2020 bottom and other bottoms around 0.225 +/- .  

Future Expectations 

I don't personally have much expectations for currencies because I don't trade them directly and I avoid trading them too.  

However, we have increasing foreigners looking to come back to invest in Bursa Malaysia, and the currency factor is of course important to them.  Should MYR/USD breaks out, it bodes well for both currency and Bursa stocks, since traditionally the appreciation of Bursa stocks depends on foreigners too.

Additionally, not all stocks behave the same way - some stocks will benefit more from appreciating MYR, others less / not / detracts.   Understanding your stock holdings might benefit/worse from future potential appreciation in the MYR over the next 3-5 years or so may / may not be helpful.  We note longer term investing is never a single factor consideration and currency is rarely the primary factor.  However, in the short term, Mr Market is manic depressive, often exhibits irrational behaviours which short term traders will be looking to capitalize.  

My time-frame is longer than short term traders - I prefer to look out over years, ahead to minimize activities and optimize gains.  My personal expectation after a decade of downtrending is to at least see say 3-5 years of appreciation or longer.  However, this remains to be seen, as we are technically still inside that downtrend channel.

Good luck over the next few years!


Disclaimer:  As usual, you are fully responsible for your own trading and investment decisions.

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