Background
Another question posed to me is would you swap PPHB for BRIGHT? I blogged about PPHB before here, so, let me share my thoughts on BRIGHT.
Introduction to BRIGHT
On paper, BRIGHT is extremely under-valued. At 21.5 sen, it's Net Cash is larger than the entire Market Value. Value investors love this type of situation and would be buying already. However, Mr Market rarely get things wrong over a long period, so, the question is - why? In particular, if Mr Market doesn't trust, should you trust the Net Cash in this company?
Long Term Charts
With 3 decades of investing and trading experience, I have learnt to trust price charts, especially long term charts and what does the chart say?
This monthly chart is interesting because the triangle over 28 year period is quite clear (and unusual). Another way of looking at this is that Mr Market is uncertain about this stock for decades. It seems to be heading towards a critical decision sometime in 2026-2027. Why is that?
Past 10Y Fundamentals
Using FYE14 as starting point, doesn't seem shabby. However, some question marks:
Shareholding
Question first on Syed Ali
Questions on Lye Jun Fei - why did he dispose all his direct holdings in 2023, and convert to indirect? Why did he buy on 17 May 2024 indirectly?
Controversies surrounding Ricky Wong (Wong Shee Kai)
Ricky Wong is the son of Teh Sew Wan, they both own Wong SK Holdings.
A series of google searches shows the following
It's quite clear that somebody has been dictating things, especially what happens to the Net Cash.
What is the Company doing with its Cash Holdings?
This image has a lot of information. Key highlights:
Who is the CFO? Who are the Management Team?
It strikes me a bit strange that in 2023 Annual Report, there is only 1 person in the Management Team disclosed in the Annual Report. Same with 2016 Annual Report too. I don't know about you, but to me, this is serious red flag. CFO is typically the 2nd most important person in the company after the CEO, and only having the CEO all the time is not transparent, like everything else about the company.
Poor Governance
One of Buffett's critical criteria is "trust" and "integrity". Due to the controversies, I don't normally compare Board compositions across various annual reports, but here, I show a snapshot of 4 different Annual Reports just to highlight the very serious question marks on governance:
How would Buffett view this company?
Buffett has this clever saying about what qualities to look out for, when hiring people to work for you. If you are the shareowner then, the Board Members and the Management works for you and you like to see these qualities in your Board members and management.
You look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if you don't have the first, the other two will kill you. You think about it; it's true. If you hire somebody without [integrity], you really want them to be dumb and lazy.
In short, I don't trust the CEO, the Board nor the controlling Shareholders.
I feel, Buffett would not touch this company with a 10 foot pole, and so do I.
What about Speculative Trading?
If you are not going to be an investor, would you consider speculative trading?
Let's take a look at the Daily candles - it is widely stated that TA traders don't care about the fundamentals of the stocks they trade because they trade on supply and demand, and what do we see?
The first thing that strikes me is the low daily volume. Only 200K recently. At 20 sen, that's only RM40k traded. Serious traders should avoid this stock.
What about the small retailers?
On supply and demand basis, there seems to be 2 interpretations - since 2018, horizontal sideways (16 sen to 24 sen), shown on the blue line. By this box, BRIGHT at 21.5 sen is not cheap yet. Or the Green Channel over shorter period (less convincing). By this metric, BRIGHT could be monitored to approach Accumulation zone.
However, the main risks is not the charts, but whether you can trust the charts. In general, TA doesn't work much in Bursa because of the smaller volume. It works better in much deeper, much more liquid markets where the market psychology shows itself better when volumes are much larger.
Why does Mr Market not value the Net Cash?
On the surface, it looks crazy, that Mr Market would discount the value of cash in the company so persistently.
Is Mr Market so pessimistic?
Are BRIGHT's problems temporary?
I think Mr Market is probably behaving like Buffett - it is too hard to tell if he can trust the CEO, the Board nor Controlling Shareholders and so, Mr Market is discounting the cash because of numerous warning signs. If you don't have trustworthy CEO, Board nor Controlling shareholders, then, you cannot trust its published books especially when its auditors frequently changes, and clear signs someone is controlling for their own benefit and it won't be the minority shareholders.
Summary and Conclusion
BRIGHT clearly have a lot of Net Cash in the Company at the last QR, but the core question is - can you trust the Net Cash to be shared with other Shareholders?
There are many warning signs. Some are really super easy to change, but why hasn't this been done? Some of these warning signs are:
Chart shows something may eventually happen in 2026-2027. Your speculations are just as good as mine what will happen by then.
If you are a large trader, the lack of volume already shuts you out - I would pass and give this a miss.
If you are a small retail trader, I would adopt a shorter timeframe than investors - I would not wait until 2026-7. Instead, I would wait at accumulation zones and immediately after fill, queue to sell higher by a few sen below resistance and look for small gains for most of it and maybe hold on to tiny amounts in case it runs higher, but depends on price action. Bear in mind, small volume, small spread = small gain i.e. better to hone your trading skills elsewhere where volume and price action is much larger.
Disclaimer: As usual, you are solely responsible for your own trading and investment decision.
Created by DividendGuy67 | Jul 27, 2024