KLCI waves 72 - Is The Current Momentum A Dead Cat Bounce? What Next For KLCI?

hotstock1975

Publish date: Mon, 23 Aug 2021, 01:45 AM

Weekly Time Frame

To recap from prior session 71, KLCI was able to trade higher and close above 1500 at 1505.11 as supporting volume came from plantation sector on 13/8/21. Even the volume were low, i saw there was some upside divergence in short run but it still depend whether there would be continuous rotation sector play other than plantation sector. Therefore, 1488 was acting as an current support for any possible upside momentum.

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For the past 1 week, no doubt that the upside divergence was able to drive the momentum with improved volume where KLCI was able to close above 1500 for second week at 1518.03. Currently, it was being resisted below DT1 line and 1520-23. Could the momentum continue from here? Let's check the temperature of the current trend.

TREND indicators

1) -DMI (red line) is still heading down with consistent margin indicates bear strength is decreasing with consistent pace and bearish momentum might make a halt since -DMI is below new R1 line by small margin.

2) +DMI (blue line) is still heading up with consistent margin indicates bull strength is increasing with consistent pace BUT not in favor yet.

3) ADX (pink line) still heading up with reduce margin implying that the volatility of the current trend is still increasing with slower pace. Besides that, the reading is still above 20 indicates the current trend continue to be firmed.

Therefore, the summations of the 3 signals above is still implying Bear strength is still in favor. +DMI is still below -DMI lines with Decreasing spread which indicating the Bear strength is still in favor but Decreasing volatility and Bear momentum is slowing down. Even the slower ADX has crossed above +DMI for 8 weeks, it indicates the bear momentum may continue and weakness may still emerging unless there is a strong trend reversal signal detected. Therefore, I am still expecting KLCI will further consolidate inbetween the support range of 1484-88 and DT1 line before a clearer signal emerged. Nevertheless, caution is still required for any knee jerk reaction which could threaten the support range of 1484-88 for an possible breakdown test the next support range of 1474-1476.

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From wave count perspective, the Higher Degree of Correction wave would be prolong with Multiple WXYXZ complex waves before a new set of Higher Degree of Bull Wave take place. Subsequent minor waves would be elaborated further in daily time frame whether wave C is Valid to end at 1483.73.

Prevailing trend could be emerged if Weekly levels listed below was broken:

Resistance - 1610, 1615, 1619 , 27, 1633, 1642, 1650, 1700, 1720

Immediate Resistance - 1520-23, 1530, 1535, 1541, 1556, 1564, 1571, 1575-78, 1590, 1595, 1600

Immediate Support - 1510, 1505, 1500, 1484-1488, 1474-1476

Support - 1466, 1452, 1447, 1436, 1407

Daily Time Frame

To recap from session 71, wave c criteria had been met at 1483.73 in conjunction with sub minuette wave 5 of sub minuette wave v But Not wave C yet, so i Assumed the current momentum was bias to the upside with completion of sub minuette wave 1-2 and sub minuette wave 3 was still being constructed with micro wave extensions i-ii-iii formation as shown. Currently, micro wave extension iv could consist of multiple complex micro waves w-x1-y-x2-z and micro wave z would be justified if 1514.52 penetrated. On the other hand, i would leave wave C alone as i won't rule out that sub minuette wave v was still not out of wood yet if 1496.6 breached.

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For the past 1 week, the momentum was quite uncertain until 1496.6 has been breached during the construction of complex micro waves z. Therefore, the recent upward momentum from low of 1483.73 is assumed to be corrective waves which formed as sub minuette waves abc. Due to these momentum changes, the entire of wave C structure could be formed in 5 waves structure (1-2-3-4-5) instead of 3 waves (abc) as labelled. That was the reason why i had not justified wave C yet as mentioned in prior session. If this is true, sub minuette wave c target has already met it minimum criteria in conjunction with wave 4 at 1526.34. I won't rule out that it may travel further up to FIBO 50% level (1541) before reverse down to two NEW possible target of wave 5 (1455 or 1440) which could be justified if 1483.73 breached.

As expected, a prolong corrective waves will prolong Wave Z since wave 5 is still yet to be justified.

To reiterate, Wave Z could be formed in various correctives wave structure (Zig-Zag, Flat, Diagonal and etc) with momentum changes.

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Since Multiple Complex Wave emerged, the new set of Higher Degree of 5 Waves Bull Run or Primary Wave 3 have yet to be seen until all corrective waves are served convincingly. Thus, Higher Degree of Correction is still being prolong by these Multiple Complex Waves WXYXZ.

The entire wave structures will still be monitored closely if the high of Wave X1 (1646.24) is penetrated which indicates Higher Degree of implusive Wave 1 could have emerged.

All waves' count and projected target are generated based on past/current price level and it may be subjected to vary if degree of momentum movement change.

Prevailing trend could be emerged if Daily levels listed below was broken:

Resistance - 1595-1598, 1600, 1608-1610, 1615, 1620, 1625-1628, 1639, 1645, 1650, 1662, 1679, 1685, 1700, 1720

Immediate resistance - 1525, 1528. 1530, 1535, 1540, 1544-1548, 1556-1560, 1562-63, 1570, 1578, 1583, 1588, 1590

Immediate Support - 1512, 1505, 1500, 1495, 1490, 1484-1488, 1475

Support - 1461-1466, 1452, 1435

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Patient is required for the SUPER CYCLE Bull Run.

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Let's Mr Market pave the waves.

Trade safely

Wave Believer

Discussions

Be the first to like this. Showing 2 of 2 comments

hotstock1975

KLCI just closed well below DT line yesterday. Finger cross.

2021-08-26 08:58

hotstock1975

What an nice breakout of DT line. Momentum has changed and could this be the fresh start of Super Bull Run to end Wave Z ? Lets see .

2021-08-26 22:54

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