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KLCI waves
KLCI waves 82 - COULD KLCI SUSTAIN MORE DOWNSIDE PRESSURE?
hotstock1975
Publish date: Mon, 01 Nov 2021, 12:41 AM
hotstock1975
0 101
Elliot wave analysis to measure price behavior for projecting next price actions
Monthly Time Frame
To recap from session 78, weak momentum drove KLCI returned below 1566 and next support is 1494. A breached below 1494 would ignite a stronger momentum for more downside in longer run.
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For the past one month, KLCI had made an attempt to penetrate 1610 but failed and retraced below 1566 again. These is indicating that weakness is still ahead for a month at least. Currently, we will see it would consolidate within a bigger range in between 1494 and 1610. No doubt that 1610 is still the major resistance to watch if KLCI need to advance upward convincingly.
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On wave counts perspective, Primary Wave 1 could be formed after 5 Higher Degree of Impulsive Bull Waves had been structured from March to Dec 2020. No doubt that Primary Wave 2 correction is underway which expected to be a prolong waves unless a unknown catalyst emerged to re-write the extension waves within. Therefore, smaller time frame would be monitor closely for any unexpected waves incurred. Subsequent minor waves would be elaborated further in daily time frame.
To reiterate, the Double Top Formation (DB range) structure formed in between July 2014 and April 2018 could be overwritten by Primary Wave 3 Bull Run when Primary Wave 2 Correction end.
The new Super Cycle Bull Wave is still valid and expecting some knee jerk reactions along the prolong cycle.
Prevailing trend could be emerged if Monthly levels listed below was broken:
Resistance : 1566, 1601.65, 1610, 1627, 1643
Support : 1538, 1533, 1524, 1504-1500, 1494, 1465
Weekly Time Frame
To recap from prior session 81, KLCI had tested 1610 and retraced back below ET1 line. There was an minor bearish divergence which indicated weaknesses might emerged next week. Since 1610 had not been penetrated convincingly, i was still assuming that the corrective wave was still not over yet.
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For the past one week, bearish divergence had driven KLCI to end lower for the second session which was further down away from ET1 line. Besides that, one of the critical support 1564 has breached which indicates weakness might still emerging next week. Let's check the temperature of the trend.
TREND indicators
1) -DMI (red line) has curved up with greater margin indicates bear strength is increasing with greater pace.
2) +DMI (blue line) has curved down with greater margin indicates bull strength is decreasing with greater pace.
3) ADX (pink line) is decreasing with greater margin implying that the volatility of the current trend is low and weak.
Therefore, the summations of the 3 signals above is still implying Short Term Bull strength is in favor but weaker. +DMI has crossed above -DMI for the third week indicating the Bull strength is in favor but slower ADX has indicated the current trend is weak and not firmed yet. Since KLCI has not penetrated above ET1 and 1610 yet, I am still expecting KLCI will be consolidating in between ET1 and ET2 in Medium Term as any rebound would not be as solid trend reversal. Therefore, caution is still required unless ET1 or 1610 could be penetrated to the upside CONVINCINGLY.
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From wave count perspective, the Higher Degree of Correction wave would be prolong with Multiple WXYXZ complex waves before a new set of Higher Degree of Bull Wave take place. Besides that, wave D has been justified to end at 1604.98 and wave E might be in its way to the downside. Therefore, Wave Z is still not been realized yet. Subsequent minor waves would be elaborated further in daily time frame.
Prevailing trend could be emerged if Weekly levels listed below was broken:
Resistance - 1633, 1642, 1650, 1700, 1720
Immediate Resistance - 1564, 1571, 1575, 1580, 1590, 1595, 1600, 1610, 1615, 1619, 1627
Immediate Support - 1557, 1548, 1533, 1530
Support - 1520-23, 1510, 1505, 1500, 1484-1488, 1474-1476, 1466, 1452, 1447, 1436, 1407
Daily Time Frame
To recap from session 81, sub minuette 5th wave extension has been completed after micro sub minuette 5th wave ended at 1613.35. In conjunction-ally, it may form an complex wave of sub minuette x2 and sub minuette z could be started to the downside after the Throw Over effect from the high of 1613.35. As mentioned, we could see KLCI to consolidate in between ET1 and ET2 line again.
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For the past one week, KLCI continued to move downward and created a gap down on Thursday. These might fuel another possible selling in next few days before it consolidate. As mentioned, sub minuette z could have started with sub minuette 3rd wave is still being constructed to the downside as labelled. if this is true, UT line is the level to watch for any short term rebound.
As usual, i am still leaving Wave Z alone since the assumption of new corrective wave above is still yet to be justified with wave E is still in the run unless there is an new catalyst to drive KLCI to penetrate above ET1 or 1610 Convincingly for new wave structure.
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To reiterate, Wave Z could be formed in various correctives wave structure (Zig-Zag, Flat, Diagonal and etc) with momentum changes.
Since Multiple Complex Wave emerged, the new set of Higher Degree of 5 Waves Bull Run or Primary Wave 3 have yet to be seen until all corrective waves are served convincingly unless Wave X1 (1646.24) is penetrated. Thus, Higher Degree of Correction is still being prolong by these Multiple Complex Waves WXYXZ.
All waves' count and projected target are generated based on past/current price level and it may be subjected to vary if degree of momentum movement change.
Prevailing trend could be emerged if Daily levels listed below was broken:
Resistance - 1639, 1645, 1650, 1662, 1679, 1685, 1700, 1720
Immediate resistance - 1566, 1570, 1573, 1581, 1590-1593, 1599-1602, 1608-1610, 1615, 1620, 1625-1628
Immediate Support - 1562, 1556-1557, 1546-1548, 1536, 1530, 1522, 1515, 1512, 1505, 1500
Support - 1495, 1490, 1484-1488, 1475 , 1461-1466, 1452, 1435
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Patient is required for the SUPER CYCLE Bull Run.
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 3 of 3 comments
Foresee this month further downside risk until 1512 ~ 1517 level...
Once break anytime can re-visit again 1483 ~ 1486 level...
2021-11-01 08:15
Just a swift and nice supported at UT line. If this level can hold, a technical rebound could emerged to realize sub minuette 3rd wave today and sub minuette 4th wave would be on the run towards lower gap. Otherwise, there would an new extension waves down for sub minuette 3rd wave if UT line breach tomorrow. Finger Cross.
2021-11-01 21:40
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KLCI waves 82 - COULD KLCI SUSTAIN MORE DOWNSIDE PRESSURE?
Author:Â hotstock1975Â Â Â Â | Â Â Â Publish date:Â Mon, 1 Nov 2021, 12:41 AM
Thank you
2021-11-01 07:41