A WORD FOR THE FUTURE STOCK TRADERS

A WORD TO OUR POLICY MAKERS-- WAKE UP!

STOCKHACKER
Publish date: Wed, 03 Dec 2014, 08:39 PM
A personal opinion in stock trading

A serious plead to our policy makers;

As usual, risk cannot disappear, it can simply be masked or transferred. The systemic risk can manifest in the heavily protected banking sector and the sovereign debt market, since they already wore out the sector considered safe and low risk -- OIL.

Once the narrow basis of collateral shrinks, as it has in oil, the inverted pyramid of debt and leverage collapses, distributing losses that then triggers defaults as the dominoes fall.

The risks are real and serious;

Financial markets in turmoil. -- Right now, the extent of the losses created by the sharp decline of oil prices has yet to become visible. The full consequences of losses and damages will only become public in the weeks and months ahead. --- How many hedge funds and mutual funds own stocks and oil related bonds, loans and instruments?

Currency markets turmoil. -- Some oil producer country has led the currency collapse resulting from the abrupt decline in oil price. Some may blame other sanctions and excuses, but the real driver is the collapse of oil prices.

Geopolitical conflicts. -- History suggest that declining oil revenues tend to spark geopolitical conflicts as those losing revenues seeks scapegoats at other oil exporters who refuse to reduce production to support higher prices. Stronger rivals may seek to exploit the weakened state of oil exporting competitors. 

The unknown and the rising odds of miscalculation. -- Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences may appear to be positive before revealing their destructive nature. Some can be foreseeable some not. Some will be controllable, some will not.

Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger the waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable events.

Some suppose that something hasn't happened are always interesting because they are known knowns. There are things we know that we know. We too know there are unknown, unknowns.

The real risks are; The ones that we don't know, don't know. That is what tends to be the difficult ones.

All the activities and choices are piling up risks, but why refused to acknowledge and deal with the consequences of all that risk that are rising fast systemicly. 

Then when the house of cards predictably collapses, can you plead ignorance? 

Wake up or fall apart.

More articles on A WORD FOR THE FUTURE STOCK TRADERS
Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 1 of 1 comments

Up_down

The impact of crude oil crashed has not been truly reflected to the corporates. Think some speculative funds companies would go burst soon. Don't know when will it happens. Will it trigger another crisis? Kikiki.

2014-12-03 21:09

Post a Comment