I have been doing this for many years and there really isnt a good time or a bad time because a bad time is really a good time to buy in while a good time may present more stability however the stock you invest in may be stagnant.

What i like to propagate is movement because any movement makes money if you know how to play it while a stagnant counter is the worst kind of situation any trader can get into as the money is not working for him.

As long as the market doesnt crash, and the counter you invest in doesnt stay stagnant, the market is your opportunity. No one can predict a market crash at this point because we are moving at information speed and all realtime. Accoording to market analyst and economic experts in US, recession is not insight however according to Donald Trump, a massive recession is on its way for US. He sighted the unemployment figures are incorrect and is above the 20% mark. As such, a combination on high unemployement and overvalued stock market will create a economic slump. 

Here again we need to ascertain who is talking...right? Who is the real Donald Trump speaking ? The comedian, the politician or the real estate mogul. There maybe some truth however there is nothing pointing towards that direction as with many suggestion of market crash by experts over the last 2 years.

The message for investors and traders here is simple. We decide from the situation that we see at current and not a long term view which leads to market crash. If the market is going to crash, it will crash and no prediction will tell in such long term. At best the prediction can be accurate to a quarter performance and anything longer than that is basically gambling on the chance.

With that out of the way, I would like to focus on what is real in Malaysia and what really to expect.

1. With El Nino effect, plantation will be affected!. Price will go up only because of supply affected

2. Oil price in market is retracing. Output is still high. In my opinion, this is a commercial issue, and a political one. On one hand having low oil price will severely damage the infrastructure and framework of the OnG business. They will spend unnecessarily to build more infra to pump more oil to sustain revenue while the ongoing effects is yet to be seen. On the political side, the lower the price is to curb terrorist funding and ISIS is on a decline and the Arab world and middle east is severely affected if this prolong. In short it is a double edge sword while for Malaysia being a nett importer, this is seen as a advantage.

3. Together with a strengthening MYR against USD, this is the other advantage Malaysia will have together with the instability and currently falling oil price. The KLCI is reflecting this.

4. In the local political scenario, Sarawak Poll (expecting to dissolve parliment on Apr 20 this month and have the polling within 60 days of dissolution. Meaning last date will be June 19)  

5. New Malaysian Bank Governor end of this month. Together with the Sarawak polling, I am expecting some market interest to show confidence in BN. 

6. More allegation surfacing on the political scene of the ruling party leadership both local and abroad. The attack on LGE on the bungalow, Mahathir on Proton etc, Rafizi and so on is to gain traction for the Sarawak poll.

I believe IF the ringgit continue to strengthen and oil price continues to slide, it will work towards BN's agenda to prop the market before the Sarawak poll and New Bank Governor to show market confidence. In fact, I think the timing may be right if it comes together toward end of this month. I know of many who have already selected Sarawak base counters but were disappointed as timing was not correct.  This may be life and death for some as a loss by the ruling coalition will spell BIG trouble for PM while a WIN can be seen a turnaround.

If all this while the PM was attacked  for the 1Mdb scandals, weak ringgit and inflation in our economy, this will be the chance to right the wrong, to correct the perception while riding on the strenthening ringgit!

HOW???? 

For those who thought BRIM doesnt benefit them, that is because you are average income base and morever the RM500 or RM1000 will not take you far. So for those, especially  in Sarawak will be rewarded if Sarawak base counters are taken care . This will ensure confidence and motivation and will lead to inspire the people to vote their choice of govt. That is not all. If the federal govt starts hedging the oil and MYR (the 2 key component that decide the price of retail petrol at the pump) or the price of crude oil continue to slide at strengthening ringgit and presented in May or June before the poll say at RM1.40 or 1.50 per litre this will definitely rile up interest. So far we have been hit by low crude oil price at the backdrop of weak ringgit which cause the price of petroleum at retail to be  higher than expected. BUT this time if ringgit strengthen to weak oil price INSTEAD of double whammy it WILL BE DOUBLE BOOSTER!!!!

YES expect the unexpected. Though customary weak oil will have stronger USD and hence weak MYR but this time we have seen for last 3 days ringgit strenthening at weak oil price. 

So the question now really is .....what is the federal govt doing to capitalise on this??? Hedge?? Give out goodies early while the phenomenon is happening and ride on it???

THIS IS A PERSONAL VIEW. IF YOU AGREE MAKE USE OF THE INFORMATION IF NOT, IGNORE!!