To-date, the world has more than US$8 trillion inclusive of direct spending, infrastructure investment, tax breaks, cash handouts, wage subsidies, bank guarantees, loan & equity injections, ready to fight Covid-19 pandemic. Combined fiscal and monetary supports range from a low of 3% to a high of more than 20% of GDP demonstrating world-wide governments’ willingness to prioritize near-term stimulus over the usual long-term deficit concerns. The Economist writes that this comes at a price with public borrowing in the rich world is set to soar to levels last seen, amid the rubble and smoke of 1945.

If stocking out excessive supplies, intentionally passing out fake news, to pervasive profiteering from health-related items are all that we see so far, the deep sense to stay alive runs deeper than that. The “affordable” groups are preparing for the crack-up of civilization, find ways to improve their odds of surviving a disaster, whether natural or man-made. Product inquiries including generators, solar panels, underground bunkers, air filtration system, hydroponic vegetables under grow lamps, shattered resistance glasses and even of weapons are rising unprecedentedly, according my China business contacts.

Bloomberg reported that some Silicon Valley denizens have already activating “Plan B” as the pandemic is escalating. For years, New Zealand has featured prominently in the doomsday survival plans for its natural beauty and premier health facilities. According to Rising S Co. which has planted about 10 private bunkers in New Zealand, the average cost is US$3 million for a shelter weighing about 150 tons and can easily go as high as US$8 million with additional features like luxury bathrooms, game rooms, shooting ranges, gyms and surgical beds. It is my own view that this is the time to invest in solutions, not escape! Our state of mind is always oscillating between optimism and sheer terror. I take note that talk of fleeing is the symptom of a deeper crisis in the making. Human motivation is complex, in short.

Not only income, right, access to healthcare and security inequalities will become more pronounced, Covid-19 will further complicate human diplomacy in today’s already fracturing world. It could take an awful lot of sting out of society. Trump’s “America First” policy, creeping autocratic regime in Venezuela, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, Hungary among, and rising nationalistic sentiment that permeates Chinese social media may be useful in unifying support to fight Covid-19 but on the broader stage, it is more likely to stir up animosity and distrust.

Some leaders see this an opportunity not only to censor criticism, political demonstration but also to undermine checks and balances on their power! And others are using this to intensify digital surveillance. History suggests to us that it is rarely, if ever, the governments allow their emergency powers to expire. As seen post 11th September, it is much more difficult to put this surveillance genie back in the bottle after the crisis fades.

Chee Seng, Wong
CIO, Athena Advisors
wong-chee-seng@outlook.com