Crucial 1,600 support to avoid a rout toward 1,566-1,589 region amid foreign net outflows 

KLCI: 1610.47 (-7.8)
DOW: 42387.57 (273.2)
MSCI Asia: 187.03 (0.5)
FCPO (RM): 4535 (6)
BRENT (USD): 71.42 (-4.63)
USDMYR: 4.3622 (0.019)
SGDMYR: 3.2989 (0.01)
EURMYR: 4.7169 (0.017)
AUDMYR: 2.8797 (0)
GBPMYR: 5.6589 (0.022)
US: 10-yr yield (%) 4.2821 (0.042)
BNM:10-yr yield (%) 3.897 (0.036)

Asia/US. Asian markets ended mostly higher while oil prices tumbled as investors were relieved that Israel’s airstrikes avoided Tehran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure. Additionally, Nikkei 225 rallied 1.8% as investors speculated that the loss of LDP-led coalition on Oct 27 election could raise political and economic uncertainties, complicating the BOJ’s normalization plans ahead of its meeting on Oct 31. After sliding 1,162 pts in the past five sessions, the Dow rebounded 273 pts to 42,387, buoyed by cooling geopolitical tension as Brent slid 5.2% after Israeli airstrikes on Iran avoided oil and nuclear facilities. This week, investors are gearing up for a packed week of earnings from MSFT, GOOG, V, META, TSLA, K, AAPL, AMZ, MA and XOM. Additionally, key economic releases, including job openings, NF payrolls, advanced 3Q GDP and PCE inflation, will offer further insights into the US economy’s resilience. 

Malaysia. In line with a selloff in ASEAN bourses and ongoing net outflows by foreigners, KLCI slipped 7.8 pts (its 6th straight loss) to 1,610.5, driven by heavy selling in TENAGA, MAYBANK, IHH, CIMB, SUNWAY and HLBANK. Market breadth weakened to 0.38 from 0.54 last Friday, with subdued trading volume (-0.8% to 2.45bn shares) and value (+3.3% to RM2.21bn). Local institutions (+RM88m, Oct: +RM844m, YTD: +RM2.15bn) and local retailers (+RM30m, Oct: +RM109m, YTD: -RM4.75bn) emerged as major net buyers. In contrast, foreign institutions (-RM118m, Oct: -RM953m, YTD: +RM2.6bn) were the single largest net sellers for a 4th consecutive session.

Outlook In anticipation of the upcoming 3Q24 local results season, foreign net outflows (Oct MTD: -RM953m, Sep: RM510m) and bearish technical readings, KLCI is likely to consolidate further (support: 1,589-1,600; resistance: 1,625-1,636-1648) in the near term. Moreover, the outlook may be tempered by external risks, including lingering Middle East turmoil, US elections, and uncertainties surrounding China's stimulus measures and its economic recovery plans.   

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 29 Oct 2024