Journey to Wealth

Media Chinese International - Bleak Outlook Awaits

kiasutrader
Publish date: Fri, 30 Nov 2012, 10:04 AM

Media Chinese (MCIL)'s 1HFY13 earnings fell short of expectations, representing only  45%/46%  of  our/consensus  full-year  estimates.  Despite  a  promising  start  in 1Q, the group's top- and bottom-line in 1H were flat y-o-y. Hence, we are trimming our  FY13/FY14  earnings  forecasts  by  13%/25%  in  response  to  the  lackluster  1H financial  performance.  Our  new  FV  of  RM1.17  is  based  on  unchanged  13x  CY13 PE. With little upside potential to the current share price, we are downgrading thestock to NEUTRAL.  

Missing expectations. MCIL's 1HFY13 earnings fell short of expectations, representing only 45%/46% of our/consensus full-year estimates. Despite a promising start in 1Q, the group's top-  and  bottom-line  in  1H  were  flat  y-o-y.  During the quarter, MCIL's revenue contracted by 5% q-o-q, pushing earnings down sharply (-18% q-o-q) after the company recognised  a  one-time  gain  of  RM5.4m  (sale  of  convertible  notes)  in  1Q.  Other takeaways were:
  • Advertising revenue slid 6% q-o-q (-4% y-o-y) amid a lethargic adex environment in Malaysia and Hong Kong. Meanwhile, its Chinese newspaper segment posted only a tepid 1% q-o-q revenue growth (+0.3% y-o-y), based on the recent 3QCY12 adex numbers from Nielsen Co.
  • The seasonally strong travel division also saw a revenue decline in 2Q (-6% q-o-q,-21% y-o-y). Management claimed that there was a shift in customers' preference to travel in early summer to avoid the typically peak season in 2Q.
  • After  forking  out  a  huge  bumper  dividend  of  41  sen/share  on  28  Nov,  MCILdeclared its first interim dividend of 2 sen/share during the quarter,  payable on 15 Jan 2013.
Downgrade  to  NEUTRAL,  FV  revised  to  RM1.17.  We  are  trimming  our  FY13/FY14 earnings forecasts by 13%/25% respectively in response to the company's lacklustre 1H financial performance. Going forward, we expect MCIL to book in higher interest charges after  committing  to  RM500m  worth  of  debts  to  partly  fund  its  bumper  dividend  on  28 Nov.  Hence,  we  arrive  at  our  new  FV  of  RM1.17  based  on  unchanged  13x  CY13  PE. With  little  upside  potential  to  the  current  share  price,  we  are  downgrading  the  stock  to NEUTRAL.  Nevertheless,  the  company  still  offers  a  commendable  dividend  yield  of 5.4%.
 Source: OSK
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