kcchongnz blog
When Market Retreats, Pong Pong Pong Again kcchongnz
When the stock market goes down, there are people now coming out Pong, Pong, Pong again and start making personal attacks on some contributors in i3investors, as if they have committed some big crimes, just like the last one here:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/84923.jsp
Investment is supposed to build long term wealth, for some future events down the road, like retirement or your children’s education decades away, or even to beat inflation when you are in a 20-30 years of retirement life.
Instead many people treat investing as speculating for quick profit in matter of months, weeks, or even days, chasing stars and themes and react irrationally when the market exhibit some blips in the short run.
Retiring in 30 years? You lose sleep when Ringgit or oil price strengthen and also when they weaken in the short term and the volatility of the market increases. It has been shown again and again that nobody has predicted correctly and consistently in all these macro-economic thingy and know for sure how they will react in the future.
Children going to university in 20 years? Stocks have a bad day, and you start to question your investing strategy, hopefully you have a plausible one, and doubt the stocks you have selected based on sound fundamental principles.
I see this all the time. It is human. I do it sometime too.
Focus on your career, stop looking at the screen, and let those worries for those margin players.
It's dangerous. While long-term financial plans benefit from compound growth, short-term reactions are cursed by emotions and randomness. Very few decisions made based on reactions to short-term market moves will help you achieve your long-term goals. The investor who ignores the noise are likely to have a big advantage over the others who watch every tick.
In my last article written two days ago on “Does fundamental value investing (FA) have any predictive power?” In the link below here:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/92580.jsp
I talked about some academic research that demonstrate buying cheap in any form, be it be low P/B, P/E or P/CF (and also P/D) have been consistently over-performed than the broad markets and with less risk.
I have also shown the track records of each of nine disciples of the Master of Fundamental Value Investing, Benjamin Graham, who had generated annual compounded returns (CAR) of between 18% and 29% over track records lasting between 13 to 28 years, out-performing the broad market by wide margins.
I have also shown my personal experience of two portfolios of mine published in i3investor three years ago have over-performed the broad market by over 120%.
The above were shared for the purpose of showing evidence that the right fundamental value investing works in the US, in Bursa and all over the world. Hence I encourage, and I always encourage investors to follow this path, the right path of investing. I have no intention to offend the operators of other methods of investing, as I have little knowledge of them.
It is just like in religion. A true Christian will encourage his friends to embrace Christianity, and a Muslim to propagate his Islam Religion. I don’t see it as a problem.
Then came these comments out of the blue in my thread talking something completely out of point:
Posted by lux88 > Mar 6, 2016 09:36 PM | Report Abuse 
KC, what your stock performance for 2016?
U not even dare to compete for the i3 stock pick competition.
Even though OTB portfolio is doing weak now, at least he dare to take part and dare to admit mistake.
OTB i believe will be stronger and wiser now.
Posted by lux88 > Mar 6, 2016 09:51 PM | Report Abuse
Kchong,u no ball to compete, OTB better than u.
No need to talk big here.
How well? Ur Coastal also drop 50%.
When I saw the first sentence I thought there was a kind soul who cares about me, whether I got margin calls or not recently due to the sharp falls of a number of export stocks. I was deadly wrong when I carried on reading the rest. I will deal with the first point later on how are my stocks performance. Now I will deal with this “stock pick competition” first.
Stock Picks Challenges in i3investor
The first “Stock Pick Challenge” named “GE13 Watch” was initiated by Tan KW in January 2013. There were three participants, one pulled out later and left with me and Ooi Teik Bee, the same OTB mentioned in the comments of lux88 above. See the link below.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp
The second “Stock Pick Challenge” named “2H 2013” was initiated again by Tan KW around July 2013, and again there were the same two participants, me and OTB, as in this link below:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/blidx.jsp
No one said the one who pulled out “got no balls”, or anyone who did not participate as “no balls”. Just wonder how this degrading term came about.
In fact, I have clarified that I joined in the “Stock pick Challenge” not as a challenge, but as a mean of sharing my way of stock selection; every stock selected, especially the second portfolio, came with detail analysis, and with valuations. Those who are interested can still read each of the detailed analysis in the link above.
Then there was this third “Stock Pick Challenge”, and the fourth one, both have many participants. I did not participate as firstly, I have no time to write about the analysis, and secondly for me, putting up some stocks for “Challenge” for a one-year period has not much meaning for sharing of value investing, because value investing is not for a “challenge” for a short duration of one year, and fourthly, may be it was time for me to “retire” from this kind of “challenges”, and let my course participants to do the job. And in fact there were a number of them in the third challenge and they all did very well using FA.
This is what one of the forumers said:
Posted by NOBY > Jan 4, 2016 01:52 PM | Report Abuse
@TanKW, I believe KC Chong has shared his picks and write ups on i3 and will continue to do so outside this competition.
Nevertheless, Tan KW still use what I have written in i3investor and compile a gigantic 25-stocks portfolio for sharing purposes, which I had no objection. But do you see me, or anyone, putting that up for the “challenge”?
Actually the gigantic portfolio did very well in my standard for the one year, I think it was about 25% return, but there are still people using it to ridicule it, because it was way below the return of many contestants for the third challenge, including this one below.
Posted by koonthebest > Mar 7, 2016 07:23 PM | Report Abuse
PONG PONG PONG! below average returns portfolio! 70% participants in 2015 stockpickers did better!
|
Tan KW's Portfolio: Stock Pick 2015 - kcchongnz
PONG PONG PONG! kcchongnz empty tong PONG PONG PONG loudest! |
The portfolio of 25 stocks returns 15.2% as at 7th March 2016 as shown in i3investor, compared to the drop of the broad market of 3% for the same 5 quarters period, or a compounded annual growth rate of 12.5%. This beats the return of the broad flattish market during the same period.
In fact, it should be much better as I can see some stock prices have not been adjusted for bonus issues, such as TASCO, and probably, not all dividends have been included too. Besides a couple of warrants which have incurred heavy losses and hence pull down the average return of the portfoliio, should not be given the same weightage. If you understand, they are used as financial risk management, and not for speculation as explained in the articles. Nevertheless, and despite of all these, if I can maintain this return for long term investing, say 20 years, I would be doing very well then.
So I have no complaint, but remember, that is not a portfolio for challenge, but something to share with others on my investment thesis. No need to compare that with your return. It has no meaning.
Let us go to the more productive part, to answer the question below.
Posted by lux88 > Mar 6, 2016 09:36 PM | Report Abuse
KC, what your stock performance for 2016?
Here I do not want to talk about those portfolios set up three years ago, as they have been doing extremely well in the last three years and a blip of the market recently won’t affect much on their long term performance.
Stocks compiled for 2016
Many would have noticed I don’t write much about stock picks nowadays, and I rely more on what my previous course participants’ recommendations for my personal investment. Hence for the last 6-8 months, I have only written on a handful of stocks; they are appended below:
- Scientex
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/83903.jsp
- Pintaras
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/83959.jsp
- Perstima
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/85379.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/85405.jsp
- Padini
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/85828.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/85800.jsp
- ECS ICT
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/90072.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/90900.jsp
All the stocks written above came with detail analysis and valuations for sharing of investment ideas, and a specific investment strategy as explained in my write up in the appended links respectively. I appreciate your critical comments.
Since the beginning of this year, the broad KLCI dropped just 0.6% from 1698 to 1688. However, the smaller capitalized stocks, especially the hot export stocks dropped by more than 20%.
As on 8th March 2016 today, the portfolio of 5 stocks return an average of 20% as shown in Table 1 in the Appendix. There is not a single loser in the five-stocks portfolio. That means not only the portfolio way out-performed the broad market, every single stock does so.
Thank God, those stocks were chosen with safety first in mind with the motto of:
"Take care of the downside, and the upside will take care of itself."
With that principle, my stocks performing very well in 2016, otherwise there will also be Pong Pong Pong on me too.
Mr. lux88, any more comment? Does it make you happy?
For those who wish to learn about investing with this “Golden Rule” in mind, you may contact me at
K C Chong
Table 1: 2016 Stock Return
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Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 50 of 60 comments
Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 8, 2016 10:43 PM | Report Abuse
Not only Coastal drop 50%. BIMB-W, MRCB-W also drop a lot.
You know this guy is so stupid. People teach him what is financial risk management using warrants as example, he followed blindly without understand the articles, and simply bought loads of MRCB and BIMB warrants and lost until pok kai.
He was so lucky that he had never bought tens of stocks I wrote about which went up sky high, but just bought the only stocks (one of the very few stocks) which I wrote about until also pok kai.
That is why you must change you name and don't follow blindly.
2016-03-08 22:55
Leave out Maybank C6 which is 100% loss.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/58905.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/68905.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/58419.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/49210.jsp
2016-03-08 22:59
YES, trapped with a lot of profit
I bought 3 lorries at 23 sen few weeks ago
checked out BIMB and BIMB-WA threads to see whether I BS you
Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 8, 2016 10:43 PM | Report Abuse
Icon8888 get trapped in BIMB-W so must keep support KC.
2016-03-08 23:00
Hi Icon, I am monitoring BIMB & BIMB-W also. Still awaiting my target timing to enter.
2016-03-08 23:02
Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 8, 2016 11:00 PM | Report Abuse
YES, trapped with a lot of profit
I bought 3 lorries at 23 sen few weeks ago
checked out BIMB and BIMB-WA threads to see whether I BS you
Icon, how come you can make tons of money whereas that follow blindly one always lost his underwear whatever he follows.
Actually he doesn't understand what the article is trying to teach him. I doubt he reads also, except Pong Pong Pong.
2016-03-08 23:16
You never say bad things about your stocks which is not true.
kcchongnz Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 8, 2016 10:43 PM | Report Abuse
Not only Coastal drop 50%. BIMB-W, MRCB-W also drop a lot.
You know this guy is so stupid. People teach him what is financial risk management using warrants as example, he followed blindly without understand the articles, and simply bought loads of MRCB and BIMB warrants and lost until pok kai.
He was so lucky that he had never bought tens of stocks I wrote about which went up sky high, but just bought the only stocks (one of the very few stocks) which I wrote about until also pok kai.
That is why you must change you name and don't follow blindly.
2016-03-08 23:17
Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 8, 2016 11:17 PM | Report Abuse
You never say bad things about your stocks which is not true.
So you want me to follow blindly this fellow below who only say bad things about anybody?
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/donfollowblindly.jsp
2016-03-08 23:22
Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 8, 2016 11:19 PM | Report Abuse
We need more forumers like lux88.
Me: oh I see
birds of same feather flock together
Posted by lux88 > Mar 6, 2016 09:36 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
KC, what your stock performance for 2016?
U not even dare to compete for the i3 stock pick competition.
Even though OTB portfolio is doing weak now, at least he dare to take part and dare to admit mistake.
OTB i believe will be stronger and wiser now.
Posted by lux88 > Mar 6, 2016 09:51 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
Kchong,u no ball to compete, OTB better than u.
No need to talk big here.
How well? Ur Coastal also drop 50%.
2016-03-08 23:24
thanks KC for the timely article
I like the title, it inspires me to come up with a nick for those that like to launch personal attack when others are down
Let's call them Pong Pong Boys and Pong Pong Girls
Top Pong Pong Boys of i3 :
(1) Optimus
(2) terenceguh
(3) donfollowblindly
Top Pong Pong Girl of i3 : kk123
2016-03-08 23:32
kcchongnz, thanks for your article. It is emotionally soothing to read your article when small caps are having a tough time.
2016-03-08 23:56
LOL i thought my luck was bad but this pong pong fella is even worst
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/donfollowblindly.jsp
he seems to FOLLOWED all the writers on ONLY the Down Stocks - boy talk about Extremely Suwei :( must go to bangkok n mandi bunga 3x a year for the next 3 years to wash off the pong pong curse :)
Pong Pong sounds funny but these fellas r more ngong ngong LOL
2016-03-09 04:52
maybe due to most bloggers only cares to give buy calls and no sell calls. : )
2016-03-09 10:22
Posted by chonghai > Mar 8, 2016 11:56 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz, thanks for your article. It is emotionally soothing to read your article when small caps are having a tough time.
Thanks chonghai for your kind words.
This is a good investor which in my opinion everyone should follow.
I wrote many articles about V.S. which I share my concerns on its cash flows. chonghai had invested in V.S and I think could be quite a lot. He evaluated what I have written, and has his own independent thinking and made his own decision to hold, or may be buy more, and as a result, I believe he made a lot of money.
While many others, including a couple of very respected forumers came out and personally attacked me, some even called names, using terms like bullshitting, misleading, etc. (yes, I am human, hard to forget certain things too)chonghai never attack me. Instead, he expressed thank to what I wrote. Hard to find this type of people around.
Why should anyone attack me personally as I was helping you to give another opinion, which you can evaluate and make your own judgment?
I think it boils down to some personal self interest and agenda.
2016-03-09 10:37
I have a few portfolios, one of which is called "kcchong" since last year that has given me handsome gains such as Magni, Scientex, Perstima, Padini. Apollo, Kuchai and Hexza. My "kcchong" portfolio is the best performing one because it consists of fundamental value stocks with margin of safety.
2016-03-09 11:02
Posted by ckkhen > Mar 9, 2016 11:02 AM | Report Abuse
I have a few portfolios, one of which is called "kcchong" since last year that has given me handsome gains such as Magni, Scientex, Perstima, Padini. Apollo, Kuchai and Hexza. My "kcchong" portfolio is the best performing one because it consists of fundamental value stocks with margin of safety.
ckkhen, thanks for your kind comment. I hope you don't mind me using this comment when the next time I get Pong Pong Pong. and also for marketing, ok?
2016-03-09 12:32
kcchongnz Posted by ckkhen > Mar 9, 2016 11:02 AM | Report Abuse
I have a few portfolios, one of which is called "kcchong" since last year that has given me handsome gains such as Magni, Scientex, Perstima, Padini. Apollo, Kuchai and Hexza. My "kcchong" portfolio is the best performing one because it consists of fundamental value stocks with margin of safety.
ckkhen, thanks for your kind comment. I hope you don't mind me using this comment when the next time I get Pong Pong Pong. and also for marketing, ok?
09/03/2016 12:32
Yes, of course!
2016-03-09 14:12
you see, all of us fighting what is right and what is wrong. then, later becomes who is right and who is wrong.
Ultimately, mr market will showed u who/what is right and wrong!.
you want to play margin? play lah. its your money.
you want to invest in VS? invest lah. its your money.
you want to invest in kfima? by all means buy more. its your money.
see, one happy family. : )
2016-03-09 15:54
kc l have been reading u articles n they make sense, why do u bother with some negative people here. U just can't please all the people all the time.
2016-03-09 17:18
Posted by Godevil > Mar 9, 2016 05:18 PM | Report Abuse
kc l have been reading u articles n they make sense, why do u bother with some negative people here. U just can't please all the people all the time.
Thanks for your kind words. I thin it is good to engage with them so that I can explain and try share some wonderful investing principles.
It is a surprise many still need some proper guidance.
2016-03-09 19:19
Hi KC, I have been reading your interesting articles for a while. At times, I wonder why you offer your FREE articles and have to subject yourself to such rubbish (S..T) from ungrateful readers. I guess each of us have our own perception on our calling and on society. BTW on your third portfolio’s performance, not sure whether you have adjusted for the 30 sen dividend by perak corp. Good on you for sharing your knowledge.
2016-03-10 08:58
and another thing is all of us are infected by been rude in commenting as we are not communicating face to face. we tend to write stuffs that will hurt other peoples. Take for example, if you know I am encouraging ppls to use margin ( but I never ask ppls to use 80%, I myself use only 30-50% margin from pledged shares)and you disagree. but when you communicate face to face, you will very politely maybe ask him, brother, be careful ya as margin got its pro and con, nanti kena burn ya. then I will say ya, brother thanks for letting me know, actually I also only use 30-50% margin as just in case my pledged stock plungd by 50% and I still have time to adjust my position. but very thankful for you to remind me.
See, so peaceful and friendly when we talk face to face unlike in forum.
something for all of us to think and adjust. Maybe we should start anew here.
what you all say?
time to go battle.bye.
2016-03-10 08:59
U r one of those rude
Posted by sharktank > Mar 10, 2016 08:59 AM | Report Abuse
and another thing is all of us are infected by been rude in commenting as we are not communicating face to face. we tend to write stuffs that will hurt other peoples. Take for example, if you know I am encouraging ppls to use margin ( but I never ask ppls to use 80%, I myself use only 30-50% margin from pledged shares)and you disagree. but when you communicate face to face, you will very politely maybe ask him, brother, be careful ya as margin got its pro and con, nanti kena burn ya. then I will say ya, brother thanks for letting me know, actually I also only use 30-50% margin as just in case my pledged stock plungd by 50% and I still have time to adjust my position. but very thankful for you to remind me.
See, so peaceful and friendly when we talk face to face unlike in forum.
something for all of us to think and adjust. Maybe we should start anew here.
what you all say?
time to go battle.bye.
2016-03-10 16:08
Haha, Icon, that's why I said what sharktank said here is good, we all know how some people behaved all the time at other places.
2016-03-10 16:11
I rude to all those that are rude : optimus, paperplane, Desa2020, cold risks, sharktank
if you see me rude to nice people, scold me
2016-03-10 19:46
i also not rude to nice peoples : ) if you see me rude to nice people, scold me. : )
2016-03-10 19:47
really ? you never been rude to nice people ? felicity wrote an article "what I think about AirAsia and AAX"
that is how you were rude :-
sharktank gosh, who cares what you think. : )
05/03/2016 09:08
2016-03-10 19:50
now is your turn to dig out my sheet
show me how I was rude to good people
2016-03-10 20:48
Markets are gearing up for an expected rate cut from the European Central Bank on Thursday, but stock investors shouldn’t get too excited about the prospects of lower interest rates, according to some analysts.
Looser monetary policy—such as rate reductions—usually spark a rally in the stock markets, but when it means yanking the deposit rate further into negative territory, the easing could end up doing the opposite, according to J.P. Morgan Chase JPM, +0.58% analysts.
In a report out earlier this week, the bank outlined how major economies with rates below zero, such as the eurozone, Japan and Switzerland, all have suffered stock-market losses since negative interest-rates policies (NIRP) were introduced. Eurozone equities are down 4.6%, Swiss stocks have lost 9%, while in Japan stocks have dropped 6.7%, as laid out in the chart below, published on Monday.
“NIRP has been counterproductive for equities so far where it was put in place, in Japan, the eurozone, Sweden, and Switzerland. We are a bit concerned about how NIRP is negatively impacting the banks and we think the banks should rather be helped to lead to better economic growth going forward,” said Emmanuel Cau, equity strategist at J.P. Morgan.
“It’s hard to see the eurozone economy growing materially, if banks do not lend more,” he added.
Read: Will Portugal be next flashpoint in eurozone debt crisis?
Lower interest rates are aimed at boosting a flagging economy by making lending cheaper and encouraging investing and fueling purchases. The ECB deposit rate currently sits at minus 0.3%, but is expected to be cut to minus 0.4% on Thursday in an effort to lift inflation, which currently stands at negative 0.2%. That is far below the ECB’s target of near, but just below 2%.
Read: 5 things to watch for at Thursday’s key ECB meeting
Several economists have spoken out against the use of negative interest rates, arguing it hurts bank’s profitability and effectively works as a tax on the financial system. With the banks in poor shape, there are fears NIRP could derail the economic recovery and continue to keep a lid on inflation and growth.
These concerns have weighed hard on the banking sector. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 banks index FX7, +0.54% is down 16% year-to-date, compared with a 7.2% loss for the broader Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +0.62% This is less an issue in Denmark, where negative rates also are in play, because banks aren't as heavily weighted in its main benchmark OMXC20, +0.23%
“Banks constrained by negative rates may seek to recoup some of their lost profit by increasing rates on new loans and thus tighten financial conditions, which major central banks would likely view as a counterproductive response to their easing,” analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch BAC, +0.61% said in a note.
So what is the ECB to do at its meeting this Thursday? J.P. Morgan’s Cau said another cut to the deposit rate is unlikely to help sentiment. He said Draghi & Co. instead should instead come up with a way to fight low inflation without hobbling the banking sector’s profitability. This could happen through another round of cheap, long-term loans and a tiered-deposit system where some of the excess liquidity from banks would be placed at the ECB at a rate above the deposit rate.
Read: Here’s what a ‘radical’ European Central Bank would do
“I think the markets are becoming more and more skeptical about the endgame. Will these policies be successful, or are they just a reflection of policy makers being desperate to find the right tools to combat low inflation?,” Cau said.
“The endgame is whether inflation expectations will go up, if the ECB succeeds, in boosting inflation expectations, whichever tool they use, that will be a very good development for the market,” he added.
Read: Disappointment reigns as ECB’s QE celebrates anniversary
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2016-03-10 20:48
I only scold rude people like paperplane, optimus, coldrisks, Desa. They all deserve it (never scold sharktank also, even though I think he is negative)
show me how I use vulgar words to scold nice people and I will apologise
otherwise you just shut up
2016-03-10 21:04
Fed reduce interest but tighten up loan requirement and they hope the market to react positively
Too bad the fed only can save the market by printing more money.
2016-03-10 21:33
I scolded you not because of your religion discussion in NSOP thread, moron
I scolded you because you joined paperplane to scold me even though it is none of your business. I have never offended you before, why you so busybody ? Paperplane is well known to be a bad guy. I think I have a reason to scold him. Why on earth you want to sinkalan and put a leg in to defense him ? that is why i taruh you loh, moron
Posted by Coldrisks > Mar 10, 2016 09:14 PM | Report Abuse
I hardly scold anybody, you come and scold me the other day in NSOP that I was stupid, who was rude. Scold yourself for being rude to me.
2016-03-10 21:34
Icon. Your ego growing too big thinking you are the best. Your karma will come one day. Good luck to you.
2017-06-13 07:20
No one own this forum. It is free and this country is Democratic. When people said something you don't like you said ppl rude. Then where got different between you and an orang utan staying inside cave. Grow up and be mature icon. Don't be surprised some living in 80,90 of age still behave like a kid
2017-06-13 07:24
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Posted by Tom > Mar 8, 2016 10:29 PM | Report Abuse
kk123 is a girl :)
Ans : Worst than old lady because he is good in bad mouth writers in I3.
2016-03-08 22:44