Kenanga Research & Investment

Property Developers - Selective Bottom Fishing Opportunities

kiasutrader
Publish date: Thu, 02 Jan 2020, 12:16 PM
There could be opportunities for investors to bottom fish selective property stocks that are poised to rebound from their overly depressed valuations. To be sure, the underlying property market outlook will remain challenging as supply continues to overwhelm demand. In essence, the property glut is expected to persist with properties currently under construction coming in progressively to add to the already huge inventory of completed stocks. On the other hand, demand will still be soft amid a slow economic backdrop and low affordability factor. Yet, following the sell-off of property stocks (with the KLPRP Index down 6.0% YTD until 20 Dec 2019), valuations have been beaten down to multi-year trough levels. Reflecting this, the KLPRP Index is currently trading at PBV of 0.49x (1SD below mean) after hitting a four-year low of 0.45x in Oct last year.

We are keeping our OVERWEIGHT sector call (following an upgrade from NEUTRAL post the earnings reporting season for the Jul-Sep quarter). Riding on a probable relief bounce, our top picks are: (i) IOIPG (trading at PBV of 0.35x or 1.5SD below mean), and (ii) SPSETIA (trading at PBV of 0.50x or below minus 1.5SD level), which replaces SIMEPROP as the latter has climbed 16.8% since our sector update in a strategy report dated 03 Dec 2019. Separately, during the recent results season, we have switched our valuation methodology from RNAV to PBV to derive our TPs. We believe this more conservative yardstick represents a better gauge on the trough valuations of property stocks amid the prevailing market down-cycle.

Fundamentals still tough. To put things in perspective, the Malaysian property market will still be struggling with supply dwarfing demand going forward. As property developers continue to launch new properties to keep their business operations going, the balance number of unsold units under construction is expected to add to the already high inventory levels of completed properties. On the demand side, there are fewer property buyers as property prices are perceived to be less affordable relative to the mass market especially against a soft economic backdrop. In response, we expect property companies to ramp up their aggressive marketing efforts to help clear the inventory holdings. To shore up their bottom-line, they may also be looking to monetise their non-strategic assets such as disposing of selected land parcels.

While unbilled sales will provide near term earnings visibility… In terms of earnings visibility, this will be underpinned by property sales secured from new launches in recent years, which typically will be booked in over two to three years according to percentage-of completion progress.

Source: Kenanga Research - 2 Jan 2020

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