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[转帖] 陈鼎武:美股恐大调整 投资者须谨慎

Tan KW
Publish date: Tue, 18 Nov 2014, 12:18 PM
Tan KW
0 433,371
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2014年11月17日 


(吉隆坡17日讯)资本投资(ICAP,5108,主板关闭式基金)董事经理陈鼎武指出,根据罗伯特席勒(Robert Shiller)的本益比理论,他对美国股市的前景保持谨慎。

陈鼎武在今日出席记者会后,被追问对股市走势的看法时,如此表示。

他指出,美国股市目前已触及经济学家罗伯特席勒的经过週期性调整的本益比(Cyclically adjusted PE,简称CAPE)的10倍水平。

从过往经验来看,美国股市在触及这本益比水平之后,通常会出现更大型的调整。

对上一次美国触及此水平后,就发生了2008年的金融风暴。因此,对於目前美国股市的情况,投资者必须谨慎。      
 
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=148956:&Itemid=198
 

 

陳鼎武:市況比2008年糟‧全球股市調整空間大

(吉隆坡17日)“大馬股神”陳鼎武直言,全球股市現況比2008年次貸風暴時更加值得擔憂。

 

陳鼎武在媒體匯報會後指出,這些年不斷推出量寬政策的美國聯儲局(FED),資產規模如今已達4.5兆美元,加上現有利率不可能長期維持偏低水平,全球股市如今具備極大的調整空間。

 

他透露,在2008年,旗下基金平均僅保留20至30%現金,惟目前卻保留高達60至65%現金,因認為股市估值過於昂貴,且附帶顯著調整風險,難以找到值得投資的股票。

 

“雖然聯儲局近期再轉口風,表示不會再短期內升息,惟現有失業率已跌破聯儲局的6%目標,至5.8%,若失業率未來繼續改善,美國必定得開始正常化利率及聯儲局資產規模。”

 

陳鼎武相信,一旦美國啟動正常化程序,股市料將顯著調整,尤其當利率被大幅上調時;就美國股市而言,陳鼎武認為30至40%的調整幅度亦是有可能的事。

 

此外,陳鼎武亦表示,按“經週期調整本益比(CAPE)”推算,美股過去僅曾3次上探現有估值水平,分別是1929、2000和2008年,結果3次均是以大調整收場。

 

他補充:“更讓人擔心的是,各國這些年來幾乎已耗盡貨幣政策選項,倘若經濟衰退風險在正常化過程中再次浮現,主要先進國還能如何應付?”(星洲日報/財經)



點看全文: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/105570?tid=6#ixzz3JOfR9SnF  

 

Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 50 of 65 comments

Cowboy

钱那么多,放那里呢?
PE到15,都比银行的2~3%利息强。

2014-11-18 17:28

1007lsl

May be he is too kind or too coward in the past two years.
In the past 2 years,he has been advocating to SELL,
as per professional & expert,
he thinks Mr MARKET is too high /too dangerous to touch,
however,Mr.MARKET falls in love with Miss MARKET ,
COPULATION takes place,
the real market went up all the way.( till today )
Will the market face a sharp pull back /correction (30-40%) tomorrow? next week?
...............
I may agree with him
may be in one of the on coming 52 weeks.
................
You can do better prediction than him ,right?

2014-11-18 17:39

cruger12345

Kept on saying the market will crash for another 5 years it will eventually happen. If it happen next year he could boost fully day I told you I predict it 3 years ago .

2014-11-18 17:43

9898

david?

2014-11-18 18:43

Kian Leong Lim

放屁話!,股市是不會因為經濟危機恐慌性下跌的。講的全部都是別人的想法,這種人的腦袋全部長在別人的屁股上 。如果人沒有先犯錯,老天是部會先犯錯的。我個人深信只要我們大家共同努力,替自己跟別人想辦法,世界將是一個永遠都在進步的地方。有些人的工作其實是在幫自己算命,然後把決果隨便告訴別人,這種人實在是對社會一點供獻出一點力量都沒有。你不用相信這些算命人的畫,它們不能夠救你的不用付金錢給它們。天理:一分耕耘一分收獲,只要我們國家的人民都很努力,我們的股市不會讓算命的講講就一定的下跌的。講股票會上漲的時候是要賣你股票,講股票會下跌是要賣你基經或債券,講來講去還不是要賺你的錢而已。經濟或股市短期需要停頓但不會下跌,經濟不好的時候,只有商品或貴重的黃金會下跌比較厲害。現在銀行利率這末低,結構好大公司的股票現在是最好的投資時期,這些大公司的股票不會大幅下跌,尤其是美國。但是,未來美國股市的漲幅不會先前的漲幅,所以亞洲股市特別是中國會漲比較多。現在資金氾濫,而股票又是最能夠代表現金,股市是要如下跌呢,現金是不會自己下跌的。唬人也不用這莫沒智慧。因為我們不能老是靠美國,所以亞洲人就算比較辛苦,我個人認為天無絕人之路。最重要的是,我們已經不能夠再靠別人了,我們需要更加靠自己了,這裡指的自己是亞洲各國。馬來西亞那些在鄰居國家有業務的公司將是最好的投資標的。馬來西亞貨幣在貶值,馬來西亞房地產的價格是要如何跌下去呢,只是那些比較差的建築公司,規劃不善的,才會有麻煩。這裡是馬來西亞,這裡不是地域,你要相信自己更要靠自己。

2014-11-18 19:32

ohshit

everyday say US will crash for 5 years already la this icap.

2014-11-18 19:36

Cyborg

The trick is they want to buy cheap... coz oredi wrong speculation about market crash... they sold everything previously.. pity

2014-11-18 19:41

1007lsl

halilujah
may the ALMIGHTY/GOD/THE HEAVENLY FATHER/MERCIFUL GODDESS OF MERCY/LORD KRISHNAH........
D PROTECTIVE ANGLES FROM D LORD
TAKE CARE OF US
...........................................................
but always remember

TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
BLAME NO OTHERS

2014-11-18 20:51

1007lsl

This world is full of
real & fake
truth & false
black & white
up & down
happy & sad
.................
GOD & DEVIL

YIN & Yan

finally

profit or loss

LOVE IS THE ULTIMATE ANSWER

2014-11-18 21:02

ntpboon

Relax, just for laugh......................

诉说股灾有几年,
不买股票存现钱。
夜晚想睡不能眠,
谁人知道我可怜?

2014-11-18 21:18

kakashit

好像恐了两年都还没有恐到,没关系,陈伯伯,你再恐多十年,总有一年会被你恐中。啊,忘记你不会看中文。

2014-11-18 21:23

sense maker

TTB has been so wrong for the past 5 years. With his reputation, I-capital should have made lots of profits in the past 5 years and be trading around RM8 a share. Look at the share price of I-Capital now. He should be fired, by all standards.

2014-11-18 22:06

gohchinlim

全部一致看好股市不下,这个一致可能带來麻烦

2014-11-18 22:31

buffetthe2nd

明年2015市场肯定会比较波动,现在靠近年尾厨窗粉饰是时候卖掉一些没什么信心的股了
保留多点现金吧,尽量集中在最有信心的股,涨市就别买,调整时才一点点买进吧

2014-11-18 22:32

bsngpg

太多乐观者时、或许就是该停下脚步想想之时。

雖然做不到老陳那套,还是非常赞同他的看法。

长期來说,我买他比一般喜欢呼天唤地者強。

2014-11-18 23:15

Cowboy

Choose those strong foundation counters.
Market maker may want to crash the market, but notice that their money also no place to go. When they dump, it will be pick up by someone else.
All facing the same problem, money has no place to park.

2014-11-19 00:54

tjhldg

this icap tan since index 1500/1600 already say so with different excuses liau ... but for sure 1 day he cun aeh with just keep on say nia ..... hahahahahahaha expert ...knn

2014-11-19 01:14

tjhldg

sorry not just si ia bo aeh expert ... is malaysia god of share .... kakakakakakakakakaka .... malaysia boleh ...kikikikikikiii

2014-11-19 01:15

ohshit

Post removed.Why?

2014-11-19 01:18

apini

I know very well I can't escape from the bear, as long as you are still in the market, you can't escape. So follow sifu cold eye advice. Do not borrow money to trade and buy only those company with good fundamental value like gadang, matrix, lbs. Ptaras.... Up happy down borrow money to buy more. Mean while enjoy the dividend. If you are young you still have a lot of time to win big.if you are old, money is not very important to you unless still hope to make more for your children. Then trading shouldn't be that difficult. Right?

2014-11-19 01:28

ohy2012

美股肯定会大调整,只是时间的问题而已。让我们拭目以待吧!

2014-11-19 07:47

Kkbull

大调整??别乱猜测了,现在大市很好,那来调整,现在才是开始大赚钱的时候,我肯定谁卖了,必后悔。马股已经到底了,现在才是享受大反弹的时候。

2014-11-19 10:04

ufoisreal

i know why market r up-ing this 2 day,bcz next week major quarter report r coming out

2014-11-19 10:09

文耀

Lolz....still got ppl think big...lolz ...market alwys will reach equilibium state....now not much vol but significant grow in index...lolz..really bad...all ppl expect things to be happenend...remember u wont expected when it coming but when it did...something really bad will coming....despair come when sudden hike in all index...XD...God will make u crazy b4 ending...XD

2014-11-19 10:18

kakashit

不要以为不梳理头发,穿衣服随随便便,人家就会以为你是深藏不露的高人,然后就崇拜你啦

2014-11-19 11:04

koi koh

DJI may go for 20000 mark in 2016

2014-11-19 11:04

ufoisreal

next week is coming quarter report r flushing out,will be a kawaii week

2014-11-19 11:10

Kian Leong Lim

陈鼎武先生,你犯了全天下男人都會犯的錯誤。你很會辦事情,辦到你自己爽死之後,你以為爽在前面死在後面,你時時刻刻都想要落跑,你反而鼓勵別人向你學西,而你就像美國人學,教大家本來就因該睡過就要放麥記。

2014-11-19 16:51

William Ng

trust = is lose money is you, make money i enjoy first

2014-11-19 16:56

dannyjie

看来有好多乐观者认为股市还会继续冲, 情况越来越不妙..
别人贪婪时我还是恐惧为妙..

2014-11-19 17:03

Kkbull

别担心,现在反弹的时候,没股票在手才担心,多现金在手才头痛,要让股票为你达到财务膨胀啊。

2014-11-19 17:52

Kian Leong Lim

我只是要輕輕地碰你一下……我只是要輕輕地碰你一下……
(1) 緣分是什莫東西? 想信大家早已經忘記了,現在的經濟是停頓,沒有錯,我們可以在等一下,人家是有常常聽到別人對我講,你這兩巴士沒坐上不用擔心,你就等做下一輪的巴士,說不下一輪巴士更好也說不一定,說不定你不要等反而吃虧.
(2) 快12月了,當然外資是無心陪你玩的,外資也要吃飯,何必大驚小怪呢?現在外資賣EPF買,以後外資買EPF賣. 下一個買點說不定就是後年,榴槤也不是每天可以吃到,你越想要吃榴槤不是更辛苦嗎.
(3)不知道有那一間旅行社公司是掛牌上市的, 我相信生意會不錯,你不用想太多,現找一個地方去爽爽一下先在回來不是很好.不要胡思亂想,什末銀行是經濟指標,什末所有東西的價錢都在下跌. 是有下跌但是是百分之5%左右.
(4) 你心裡面對我早就有成見,總是認為,我升利率的目的,好想是要害所有東西都會跌價. 把你們當成好歲三歲小孩不懂事,好像利率上升價格就會下跌,這個道理是沒錯,但是你不懂得變通,在上面跟在下面不是一樣,但是在上面這一件事情是要做到25~30年, 這個升利率在上面的事情,是要做到25~30年的事情,是要讓你爽25~30年的事情,沒有讓你爽這末久, 你怎末可能滿足,我是要每次輕輕的碰你一下,你開始你會不習慣這我可以理解你,但是我們是要再一起25~30年的,你不可能叫我永遠都不要把,這太慘忍了把,你叫我偶爾都不能碰你一下,你叫我偶爾都不能升利率,這實在是不近人情把.

2014-11-19 18:36

Kian Leong Lim

我的建議是:不要買太多股票先,大環境不好,全世界大部份的國家,經濟還是很困難.明年的股市,不要對它的表現抱持太樂觀,其實我希望大家想一想,明年那朵花因該是會凋謝,跑去結婚因為羊年是個很好結婚的一年,最快至少要等後年以後以後才會生小孩,才會再開始開花或結果.這是出自小弟的個人觀察.现金多最好不要手癢,因該先去做其他事情好像去旅行.美國的經濟未來再好也就不了我們,人家現在還是負債累累的國家,開銷還是全世界最多的國家,你最好要相信,美國已經沒法子像過去那樣的進口其他國家的貨品.所以小弟在建議:未來要投資,最好是找一間賣跟日常生活習慣不能分開產品的公司比較有機會.中國的製造業非常可怕,我們國家的製造業最好是能夠找跟中國沒有辦法生產的商品.現在真正的問題是,我們的政府未了選票,過度擴充我們國家的財政資源.我們真正的問題是我們自己,我們太會花錢了,通通都是向別人借的,然後再出最後一招,向國人伸手要錢.我真的不敢想信,我們國家的GIC常常要到外國去投資,結果現在要把公司趕快上市籌錢,目的還不是要國人去分攤他們的經濟夢想後遺症.

2014-11-19 21:10

stockoperator

Ha, market is always there for you to throw. I really wonder if everybody thinks about the same thing at the same time, the market will go Bust.

Throw whatever you don't want and market will take everything that you throw and keep quiet.

But remember One day you might want to ask it Back. Well, market is still there to Supply everything you want.

2014-11-19 21:32

Kian Leong Lim

The way you wrote the email you seemed to me to be a very matured person. We all get a choice to do what we want, who cares about the market, the point is we just want to make money. In the immediate future year, are we able to do that or not. What is the probability? If you don't have any confidence I suggest you better don't say so proudly that you might want to ask it Back. I recently dump Shell Refinery shares, I will never ask for it back. It is a broken marriage, I don't want a drug and worthless husband, why should I be asking something I don't want back. Go to Hell with what I threw away. I don't stand to lose anything if Ijust be myself.

2014-11-19 21:46

William Ng

专家=专骗人家
现在如果不说几句万一股市一下才说,人家会说我马后炮。反正现在说了股市将会调整(每个人都知道啦)不要说几时就可以了。呵呵呵。。。专家嘛!!!有保留是正常的。。。(就说天机不可泄漏咯)

2014-11-19 21:56

Kian Leong Lim

我是個長期投資股市的人,我的股票很少賣出,但是只要是他讓我對他反感,我是不會留情的把它賣掉。我所知道的東西都不是我所發明出來的,都是我看書看報紙學的,我從來都不是股市發明家,但是我會想就像你說的,不過我不用想我也知道你是一個衝動的人.我不會去想美國什末時候要下跌趕快建議大家趕快賣股票,专家=专骗人家.我沒有叫你股票要下跌了趕快賣股票.我只是把我認為我們的股市問題在馬來西亞,不是在美國. "就说天机不可泄漏咯"講這句話更本就是狗屁,Forum本來就在交流,如果你認為你有很多的秘密的話,你不用告訴別人.我只是說明年股票大概是會休息一段時間,才建議大家先方輕鬆一下先,明年國內國外有那末多重要是大事情要進行,你如果不是白癡,你就不能夠先看看再買嗎?你是害怕買不到股票還是害怕買不到狗屎?

2014-11-19 22:26

Tom_lks

LimKL,你有说不完的话。。。。。

2014-11-19 22:32

Kian Leong Lim

Tom-lks 你是一個無聊的人還是说大家講話都要看你的臉色,你要不要先去照一下鏡子。

2014-11-19 22:40

Tom_lks

LimKL。。。。。你的疑心太重了,我只不过是说你有说不尽的话,你想到哪里去了 =.=''

2014-11-19 22:43

stockoperator

Dear friends, there is no where to Hide and Run. Where do we want to Hide?

As a buying professional, our job is clear which is Actively Invest, Actively Managing our portfolio, Risk Management, Cash Management and Always hunt for Good Business with Fair price.

Once process is simplified we will enjoy the journey. Surely along the ways, there are Winners and there are Losers.

2014-11-19 23:02

stockoperator

I always remember Warren first closed down the funds in early 1970s and reinvested a few years back.

Thereafter, he never did that again. And he is always at the Buy side at each downturn. WHY?

We are all so amazed how fast the Business with Good value bounced back each time even stronger than before.

We are Not going to live in Fear anymore. Just let Bear market comes. It will go away as before.

2014-11-19 23:11

Kian Leong Lim

stockoperator: I would like to apologize for my misconduct. Sorry about this bad temper, it is just the local market these days only very few big cap stock performance are standing out but others are just very slow in moving. But I do have a question to ask you? Could you please tell me what is the lightly scenerio for our country if oil prices were to sink further, like maybe go down to RM60 or later to RM40? Are you at all worried that we have taken so much for granted that we thought we issue a lot of bonds so when the interest rate goes up the bond price will drop so we will be the beneficiary. If we think we are the beneficially by issuing a lot of bonds, what if the oil price and palm oil were to sink in price? What happen then to our local stock market? Are we leaving too much debts for our future generations to bear and so much that as the current people we don’t care? Do you think we are competitive enough as a nation in the future to payback our debts?

2014-11-19 23:18

1007lsl

Do not worry too much,
God shall take care of us,
Why not be SINCERE,COMPASSIONATE ,LOVING,FORGIVE & FORGET,
let us PRAY everyday
for a PEACEFUL meal
a warm clothing
& a shelter

OK?......OK??????

May LORD Bless all the BEINGS
& FORGIVE their ignorance
for they know not
they are doing wrong
.........
halilujah.

2014-11-19 23:45

stockoperator

My Dear Friends, Buy the Company knowing that even the country goes Bankrupt your company will be doing just fine.

Nothing has proven to destroy the Business Value so far. We have gone through World War, we have gone through Inflation, We experienced Oil at USD30 before and many many recession before and Bank bankruptcy before. This is Not what i say But the market has said so since its existence.

We need a Bear Market anyway to build Wealth.

Having said that Spend lots of time in Learning the Business Not the Economics.

TQ.

2014-11-20 00:21

MG9231

Go to Casino betting big and small.
If TTB keep shouting small every minute, a matter of time it definitely will open small, is this considered great?

2014-11-20 16:16

stockoperator

I know we all hate challenges and difficult times and we love good and strong market.

But market can only be Higher and Stronger after going through difficult and challenging time. The Tough keeps going.

So which one is which?

Luckily Businessman Never runs away and Always prepared to strive in Good and Bad times.

And Market is always well positioned to take it Head On. Unless something unexpected happens.

2014-11-20 19:11

dragonfruits

Lama lagi, buybuybuy,,wakaka

2014-11-20 23:28

ak2899

人称大马巴菲特,我笑倒了。哈哈哈

2014-11-20 23:29

dragonfruits

Even if big bear come, it only sustain for 1 year plus, big bull came, sustain for 5 years plus..matter of time ma..

2014-11-20 23:33

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