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[转贴] "投机”冷眼推荐股之成效 - 水星

Tan KW
Publish date: Thu, 09 Feb 2017, 11:20 AM
Tan KW
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Wednesday, February 8, 2017 

 

去年11月初冷眼前辈在他的新书推介礼上所提到的30家可研究的公司, 经过了大概一季或三个月的光景,如果短期”投机”在其中,成绩将如下:

公司            price@5/11/16       price@8/2/17    期间除权的股息          盈利/(亏损)

PERSTIM            6.54                        6.85                      0.20                                  7.80%

TGUAN               4.00                        4.39                        NIL                                 9.75%

ASIAFLE              3.70                        3.55                      0.03                               (3.24%)

TAANN               3.50                      4.18                    0.05                                        20.86%

SOP                    3.72                     3.97                     NIL*                                     6.72%

UMCCA             5.54                       5.80                    0.08                                      6.14%

HEVEA              1.33                        1.47                  0.013                                   11.50%

SUPERLN          2.41                       2.53                  0.025                                      6.02%

PENTA             1.46                       1.64                  NIL                                         12.33%

IQGROUP        2.29                       3.00                   0.05                                        33.19%

ECOWLD        1.34                       1.49                    NIL                                          11.19%

RCECAP           1.31                       1.49                    NIL                                         13.74%

POHUAT         1.56                        1.84                  0.02                                         19.23%

JAKS                1.01                        1.27                    NIL                                         25.74%

MFCB              2.25                        2.79                   NIL                                          24.00%

JTIASA            1.34                         1.42                 0.013                                           6.94%

FREIGHT         1.19                         1.18                   NIL                                           (0.84%)

PRLEXUS        1.53                          1.42               0.0175                                        (6.05%)

JOHOTIN        0.98                          1.32                 NIL                                            34.69%

MBSB            0.915                         1.19                 NIL                                              30.05%

OPENSYS       0.355                          0.37                NIL                                              4.23%

MMSV           0.595                          0.64                NIL                                              7.56%

SOLUTN        0.265                         0.335              0.01                                            30.19%

RGB                0.22                           0.335               NIL                                             52.27%

HOMERIZ       0.90                          0.995              0.03                                            13.89%

SENDAI          0.50                          0.715               NIL                                              43.00%

WASEONG    0.88                          0.895               NIL                                                 1.70%

OCK               0.795                        0.82                   NIL                                               3.14%

WCEHB         0.895                         1.26                  NIL                                              40.78%

WILLOW       0.74                           0.795                NIL                                               7.43%

*SOP在这期间有附加股的调整, 因懒惰而没计算在上表内

如果每家公司均额买入, 这三个月的平均回酬率为 15.8%,比市面上各种”老鼠会”所保证的回酬来得差 :p

30家公司里,负回酬的只有3家, 赚钱的机率高达90%, 虽然不鼓励以此心态出席前辈的讲座,但个人确实不难理解许多人到场观看他的风采之余,也想拿到第一手资料的心情.

此文只是为了趣味性和验证效益而记录, 非鼓吹短期投机和跟风的行为, 亦非赞同大家去盲目相信所谓名人所讲的一切, 因为缺乏自立能力的人, 少了可以依赖的人就无法行事, 终究会被时间的洪流给淘汰.

记得以前Walkers皇后也有写过过同样性质的文章, 只不过她所记录的时期是一年, 将来自己还记得的话虽然也是可以分享, 但功夫将会繁琐很多, 只写这一季也已经让自己感到相当慵懒了.

有兴趣也可以到”暴涨”Ah Boon生活笔记本的部落格读读关于这30家公司的简介文章, 至于较深入的内容当然还是理应由投资者自行搜集.

短期的成绩, 或许只是一时的炒作效应, 一家公司能否经历起时间的考验, 才是投资最大的挑战. 但站在小股东的角度而言, 价值投资也不代表永生留存, 和持股时间长短未必有直接的关系. 最重要的, 在于作出投资决定前, 必需要有全局的意识, 考虑一项投资各方面的有利和不利因素, 然后将之综合起来作评估,得到结论后就根据它来采取投资行动, 这样虽然我们还是做不到”必胜”,但可以减低失误并提高胜算. 只要投资考量是出自于公司前景可视度范围内,对应其价格而做出的判断,亦可谓价值投资. 盲目持有基本面恶劣的公司十年,则即使是”长期”但也非价值投资.

该保存一辈子的,不是”投资项目”, 而是属于自己的”投资方法”, 而要坚持一种投资方法, 就一定要让自己了解这方法背后的逻辑和哲理, 如果只是道听途说地运用他人的方法, 我们自然就容易信心不足,无法持之以恒.

前辈也再次告诉了我们,无论命中率有多高, 也不会有100%必赚的组合,个别公司的亏损是所有投资者都会面临的事情, 只要能够凭一己之力建立一个胜多败少的组合, 已经是一位选股能力合格的投资者, 如同考试一样, 不必每次都拿100分才能及格, 80分就已经属于优秀的一群, 60分也能算及格了. 所以我们不该畏怕错误而止步不前, 而是从失败中让自己成长, 即使你不是那群买在前1%最低价或卖在前1%最高价的人,你依然可以是一位胜利者.
 
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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 9 of 9 comments

joe2703

impressive!!!!

2017-02-09 11:29

Hiu Chee Keong

Recently stock going up, a lot of shares also up. 90% shares i bought last few months also up alraedy, make some hansome profit. Wait for trump to make some big mistake, then market will be in bargain again :)

2017-02-09 15:50

warren22

all share up, no intend to buy

2017-02-09 17:12

Ryan88

Ya. Most the stocks up 2017. Haha

2017-02-09 20:10

paperplane2016

Win most,loss little! That is winning Liao.

2017-02-09 21:28

Raymond Fan

impressive records.

2017-02-09 21:50

Patrick13

As long as good FA counters, they have chances to go up in 2017.

2017-02-10 07:54

Alwin Wong

sipek power

2017-02-10 12:58

Chong Hon

like

2017-02-11 19:16

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