It could be too soon to call for a bull market and even more unbelievable for anyone to actually think that a bull market may return to Asia quite soon. Not with all the bad news about the trade war and the weak economic data coming out from China.
But I am somehow starting to be more confident that a bull market may return sooner rather than later despite the weak US stock market simply because the China and Hong Kong markets have fallen deep into bear market territories almost a year ago! Do remember that fortunes are made in bear markets; money is lost during a bull market. Fortunes are made during a bear market because discerning investors start buying while money is lost in bull markets as a result of investors chasing the bull and refusing to cut losses.
Yes, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) have both been in the doldrums for almost a year ever since both indices fell 20% from its closing peaks on 29 January 2018!
Now let us examine the charts of the SSE, HSI, and the STI to see how long each bear market had lasted for the past 12 years. This will more or less help us determine if we are already at the tail end of the bear market from a technical point of view.
SSE 10-Year Chart
From the first red arrow that appeared in late 2007, which was when the global financial crisis took place, the “Buy Signal” was triggered in early 2009. From sell to buy, the entire bear market lasted no more than 1.5 years and bearing in mind that the 2008 crisis was no small matter, the signal asking investors to buy took a rather short period of time.
Subsequently in 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2015, time taken from triggering of sells signal to buy signals all took no more than 1.5-2 years. Since the last sell signal was triggered on 29 January 2018, the bear market is already one-year-old meaning we are at least halfway through the bearish phase if we were to look at the bearish phases of the SSE over the last decade.
The definition of a bear market, or a bull market, is for the value to fall or rise by 20% or more. These signals, however, appear much earlier than the 20%-prescribed fall in value. If you had waited for the 20% fall or rise to appear before you took action, it would have been too late!
Now, let us look into Hang Seng’s charts over the last decade.
HSI 10-year chart
From its closing peak of 32,966 on 29 January 2018, which incidentally was the day when the SSE peaked, to the sell signal of 28,545 that was triggered on 3 July 2018, the process took about 6 months be confirm. If an investor had waited for the 20%-fall to occur before cutting losses, the investor would have had to wait till the HSI to reach 26,372 before he or she would take action. It would have been in September 2018 before the HSI reached this level. Late, isn’t it?
Similarly, from peak to trough, or from sell to buy, the HSI took an average of one year with the exception of 2008 which took slightly less than 1.5 years.
What about our very own STI?
STI 10-Year Chart
Great news for local investors! The good news is that the STI typically takes just slightly more than a year to turn from sell to buy! Does it mean that we should start buying now?
The newsflow is negative; the sentiment is horrible; and we are in the midst of a tightening cycle whereby interest rate hikes and a bear market almost go hand-in-hand. In the short-term, I am looking at 2,950 for support while, if this support is broken, the index may go as low as 2,550.
Factors That Can Bring Back The Bulls
While these factors may or may not come true in the short term, it is still worthwhile to take note if we want to buy cheap instead of being pessimistic and doubtful during bear markets and chase after buying frenzies during bull markets only to end up getting hurt.
I am trying to inject some optimism as I am seeing the possibility of the bulls coming home to Asia. As long as there is some evidence to be optimistic, we should not disregard the possibility. Having said that, however, things may drag on for a while longer so do not jump in with your eyes closed and homework not done.
For a start, the Sino-US trade war should end before investors can feel some optimism in the air.
http://aspire.sharesinv.com/59447/riel-gan-early-signs-of-asian-bull-markets-returning/
Created by Tan KW | Jul 26, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Jul 26, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Jul 26, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Jul 26, 2024
speakup
yes. it's time to go all-in (sai-lang).
just whack any counter, and see buta profits come!
2019-01-11 11:05