Collection on KLSE.8K article

怎样避免“选股”的风险?

value_investor
Publish date: Thu, 03 May 2012, 10:33 AM
Collection of KLSE.8k articles from a famous chinese forum in Malaysia.

He was a very dedicated investment guru who contributed his knowledge to the public.

I plan to share those old articles from my local archive to this community and hope everyone can enjoy and benefit from it.

More References: a post from another i3 member - http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/11579.jsp

Published Date: 2002-02-14 

身为小股东我们是很难知道公司的日常操作。
如果管理层有心要进行“不道德”的商业手法来占小股东的便宜是轻而易举的事情。
这是现实的事情,没有人有办法去改变它。
但是我相信这世上不会全部是坏人,它也是有好人的。
所以不是全部的公司都是坏的,股市里也是有好的公司。

问题是:如何去分辨好和坏呢?

我是这样的认为:万变不离本宗,公司成立就是为了赚钱,为股东赚钱。
不管黑猫白猫,能够捉老鼠的就是好猫。
只要那一间公司能够替股东赚钱,它就是好的公司。

公司赚钱是反映在它的业绩。

公司所赚的钱合不合理就是反映在它的ROE,也就是每股净盈利 (EPS) 除以每股净资产(NTA)。

ROE = EPS / NTA

一般情况下ROE能够反映管理层的素质。
如果管理层有占小股东的便宜,公司的盈利就会受损,通过ROE我们就能够提早警惕了!
当然,在某些情况下,好的管理层也是无法阻止公司亏损的,所以我们也不能单单从ROE的差劲表现就断定是管理层的不好。
无论如何,只要是ROE不好我们就避开,这样我们就可以省却许多的麻烦。

股神BUFFETT认为:
只要每股净盈利EPS除以每股净资产NTA是大过0.15,公司的盈利就是很合理的了!
也就是说:ROE大过0.15就是合理了。

怎样解释ROE等于0.15?

ROE等于0.15就是说:公司每1.00零吉的净资产,一年内就能够赚取0.15零吉的盈利。
也就是说公司的净资产每年能够赚取15巴仙的利润。

例子:
RUBBEREX的每股净盈利 (EPS) 是0.245零吉,每股净资产 (NTA) 是1.53零吉。
ROE = 0.245 / 1.53 = 0.16

也就是说,RUBBEREX的每1零吉的净资产,每年可以赚取16巴仙的利润!
一年能够赚取16巴仙,这当然是很不错的了!
(相比之下,把钱存在银行只能赚取4巴仙!)
所以RUBBEREX所赚的钱就是很合理了!

当然公司也可以通过做假账来瞒骗小股东,例如美国的ENRON。

那么如何知道公司的帐目是可靠的呢?

数目字是可以骗人的,只有真金白银是不会骗人的!

什么是真金白银?
股息就是真金白银!

股息是要开支票发给股东的!
什么都可以骗,就只有股息不能够骗人!

只要收到公司的股息支票我的心里就踏实了:它是真的赚钱了!

所以我认为,只要所选的股票的ROE超过0.15,而且公司是有股息的,我们就能够大大的减少了“选股”的风险!

RUBBEREX一年的股息是20巴仙,投资买进1张就能够获得200零吉的股息。
RUBBEREX的帐目上说,它一年可以赚取245零吉,而且分发200零吉的股息给股东,这样的盈利当然是假不了的!

我们就是要选这样的公司!

结论:

1) 能够维持0.15以上的ROE,公司就得有良好的管理层和优越的赚钱方法。
2) 能够派发股息,就能确保公司所赚的钱是真实的,而不是数目字而已!

这就是我避免“选股”风险的方法。

Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 17 of 19 comments

Fat Cat Tim Buddy

ROE = EPS / NTA - is incorrect

ROE = EPS / EQUITY - correct

NTA - nett tangible assets

equity include intangible.

next time when copy article please do some revision la, and dont keep posting ages article..

2012-05-03 12:10

loke35

Please post in English, we are in Malaysia.

2012-05-03 22:03

stncws

please learn chineses lah..

2012-05-03 22:30

jacklew

In Malaysia, then post in Malay...why English??

2012-05-03 22:35

jacklew

stncws: Agreed. Should learn mandarin.

2012-05-03 22:36

chongkonghui

Agreed.

2012-05-22 11:48

Namoyaki Takarajima

Dear Friends, Note: Translated as per above. Please make a correction if you may find it is wrongly translated at anywhere. Thanks friends, we are all friends in here. Love, Namoyaki T.
*
As a small shareholder is difficult to know the company's daily operations.
If management really wanted to be "unethical" business practices to account for the small shareholders cheap is easy.
This is the real thing, no one way to change it.
But I believe that this world will not be all bad, it is a good man.
Therefore, not all companies are bad, the stock market is a good company.

The question is: how to distinguish between good and bad?

I like this: Stuck in this case, the company set up to make money, make money for shareholders.
Whether black or white, able-and-mouse is a good cat.
Which companies can make money for shareholders, it is a good company.

The company makes money is reflected in its performance.

The money is reasonable is reflected in its ROE is net earnings (EPS) by dividing the net assets per share (NTA).

ROE = EPS / NTA

Under normal circumstances the ROE to reflect the quality of management.
If management has accounted for the minority shareholders of cheap, the company's profit will suffer through the ROE, we will be able early alert!
Of course, in some cases, good management can not prevent the loss of the company, so we can not simply conclude that management is not good from the poor performance of the ROE.
In any case, the ROE is not good that we avoid, so that we can save a lot of trouble.

Warren BUFFETT think:
As long as the net earnings of EPS by dividing the net assets per share NTA is greater than 0.15, the company's profit is very reasonable!
In other words: the ROE greater than 0.15 is reasonable.

How to interpret the ROE is equal to 0.15?

ROE is equal to 0.15 means that: net assets of each 1.00 ringgit to 0.15 ringgit of profit within a year to earn.
In other words, the company's net assets each year can earn 15% profit.

Example:
RUBBEREX net profit per share (EPS) is 0.245 ringgit per share, net assets (NTA) is 1.53 ringgit.
The ROE = 0.245 / 1.53 = 0.16

In other words, for every 1 ringgit, RUBBEREX the net assets each year can earn 16% profit!
Year to earn 16 per cent, which of course is very good!
(By contrast, the money in the bank can only earn 4%!)
So RUBBEREX money is very reasonable!

Of course, companies can also be cooking the books to deceive the minority shareholders, such as the United States ENRON.

So how do you know the company's accounts are reliable?

Number of words can be deceiving, the only real money is not a lie!

What is the real money?
Dividend is real money!

Dividend checks to shareholders.
Anything can be deceived, only dividends can not lie!

As long as the company received dividend checks my heart at ease: it is really to make money!

So, I think, as long as the ROE of the selected stock of more than 0.15, and the company is a dividend, we will be able to greatly reduce the risk of "picking"!

RUBBEREX year the dividend is 20 per cent investment to buy one will be able to get a dividend of 200 ringgit.
RUBBEREX accounts on it for a year can earn 245 ringgit, and to distribute a dividend of 200 ringgit to shareholders, such a profit, of course, is false can not!

We want to choose this company!

Conclusion:

1) can be maintained above 0.15 the ROE, the company must have good management and superior way to make money.
2) to pay a dividend, you can ensure that companies with the highest real, rather than the number of words.

This is to avoid the risk of "picking".

2012-05-22 12:23

euscilyn

Thanks Namoyaki, Hope to receive more translated from you. It's help me more clear understanding.

2012-05-22 13:31

Trader Hub

Namoyaki, why don't you create a new blog here and post all your translated articles into the blog. That way, we will be able to read all the English version articles from a separate blog here.

p/s: Also, with new blog post you can translate the post title, hence it is easier for us to know what to read from the post title..

2012-05-22 13:36

Namoyaki Takarajima

dear Trader Hub, much appreciated for the idea given. building a chapter by chapter would be nice for our reference in the future. i must quickly study this investor.com web system & arrangement. i like to help people even when i am down, ever since im here, i met lots of good people, good energy, good heart. thanks euscilyn, a word from you made my day.

2012-05-22 13:58

aunloke

By definition ROE is not EPS/NTA but the value is quite close,thank to our accounting system that the value of intangible asset ( like special right, brand name, wide moat etc.) is not included in the balance sheet. In most balance sheets ROE=EPS/EQUITY PER SHARE is only slightly smaller than EPS/NTA sometimes can be equal if there is no minority interest included, this explain some people mistakenly use ROE=EPS/NTA.

2012-05-22 14:18

Namoyaki Takarajima

Dear Tan Kian Wei, that is easy! Simply is always the best. some other blog are difficult for us to follow their system style. Thank you very much. You guys must wait a story from my side where i walked to fishing village in Penang and Kedah and asked them about SAVING, one old lady told me that "money do not have magnet, but we did". :) mingling around with the children at kuala muda kedah is another breathtaking experience. I asked them, what is SAVING? they simply answered this: "Ermmm...Bila di Jeti kami dah ada Bank, tempat kami mesti dah OK". :)

2012-05-22 14:28

Gajah

Very good of Bro Namo to translate. But he can't do this every time, also busy bah! So why not do-it-yourself. Go to Google Translate, copy paste the article in whatever language, the translation arrives instantly.

2012-05-22 14:34

winwin

NTA, DY, ROE, EPS, PE are most easiest method to understand and fundamental of each stock. For me, fundamental weighing ratio is 70%, vs technical analysis 30%.if economic turn bad, the ratio for fundamental may increase to 90% compare to TA.it means focus more on blue chip or strong cash flow stock.

2012-05-22 15:03

aunloke

Good translation, I don't think Google can compare. I have read through both posting. the translation is perfect , so carry on the good work.

2012-05-22 15:33

alntm

food for the mind, when markets are bearish. thumbs up..

2012-05-22 15:43

kl foong

agree with Kian Wei.

2012-05-22 16:23

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