Collection on KLSE.8K article

从MEGAN的股价表现看长线投资

value_investor
Publish date: Wed, 23 May 2012, 09:38 AM
Collection of KLSE.8k articles from a famous chinese forum in Malaysia.

He was a very dedicated investment guru who contributed his knowledge to the public.

I plan to share those old articles from my local archive to this community and hope everyone can enjoy and benefit from it.

More References: a post from another i3 member - http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/11579.jsp

Published Date: 2005-04-02

我常常说,股票是致富的捷径,我玩股票是为了致富,不是为了赚零用钱.
根据我的经验,长线投资是最好的致富方法.
只要买赚大钱的好公司收藏起来,成功致富就是顺理成章的事情了.

怎样寻找 ‘赚大钱’的 ‘好公司’呢?
我是这样的认为: PE低就是 ‘赚大钱’,ROE高就是 ‘好公司’.

习惯上,我是先看ROE才看PE.
也就是说,我是从 ‘好公司’里面挑选 ‘赚大钱’的股.

这样的投资方法是否有效呢?
长期而言,成功的机率比较高.

但是,成功的道路并不平坦.

就举一个 ‘有趣’的例子, MEGAN.
一个在佳礼论坛备受争论的股项.

根据ROE和PE选股的投资者,肯定不会错过MEGAN.
但是,有买过MEGAN的股友都知道,MEGAN的股价走势和它的业绩并不平行.

我说它 ‘有趣’是因为自从挂牌至今,MEGAN年年赚大钱,ROE连续四年都高企在0.15以上的高位,但是股价却相当疲弱,业绩步步高升,股价却节节败退.
它的本益比已经从2000年8月的20倍急退到2005年4月的4倍.

就让我简单的说一说MEGAN的历史:

MEGAN是于2000年8 月8日开始挂牌,当时的新股认购价是RM 2.50.
第一天的上市价:最高是RM 4.50,最低是RM 3.90.

根据当时(2000年)的资料,MEGAN的EPS是0.21令吉,NTA是1.45令吉.
所以,ROE就是0.14,PE就是19(以4.00令吉的价钱来计算).

根据当时的情况,MEGAN的ROE相当不错, PE也蛮合理.
(因为当时综合指数是826点,本益比大约是19)

假设我们在MEGAN上市的那一天以4令吉的价钱买进了8000股的MEGAN,我们的投资额就是32000令吉.
(4.00 X 8000 = 32000)

从2000年8月8日到2005年4月2日(今天)
MEGAN共发了两次红股和一次附加股.
依次为:
5/2/2002  红股4送1
30/6/2004 红股2送1,附加股5配4,另送4张凭单.

经过了红股和附加股,8000股的MEGAN今天已经变成了23000股的MEGAN和8000股的MEGAN-WA.
而我们的投资额也从32000令吉变成了44800令吉.
(因为我们以1.60令吉的价钱,认购了8000股的附加股)
(1.60 X 8000 = 12800)

今天,这44800令吉的投资额变成了多少?

就来个检讨:
根据2005年3月31日的闭市价:
MEGAN是1.23令吉
MEGAN-WA是0.29令吉

23000股的MEGAN X 1.23 = 28290令吉
8000股的MEGAN-WA X 0.29 = 2320令吉.
总计: 30610令吉.

所以,经过这四年多的长线投资,这44800令吉已经变成了30610令吉.
(亏了大约31.7%)

讽刺的是,这期间KLCI已经从826点(8/8/00),上升至871点(31/3/05).
(升了5.4%)

从这个 ‘有趣’的例子来看,长线投资是否行得通呢?
四年多的长线投资,还得亏损31.7%,怎么说都是说不过去了!

但是,话又说回头:
当年MEGAN挂牌时,那4.00令吉的价钱是否值得做长线投资呢?
刚刚上市的公司我是存有戒心的,虽然0.14的ROE是不错,但是那个19的PE却只是市场的平均而已(因为综合指数的PE也是19).
所以,当年这4.00令吉的价钱对我而言,并没有吸引力.

现在已经过了四年,这四年里MEGAN的业绩突飞猛进,营业额从2000年的8千万飞涨至2005年的8亿,足足成长了10倍.
净盈利也从2000年的8百万飞涨至2005年的6千万!

根据MEGAN刚刚公布的9 个月的业绩(截至31/1/05)来推算,它的全年EPS将是0.30令吉,而NTA 将达到2.00以上.
所以,它的ROE将保持在0.15左右的水平.

以这个连续5年高水平的ROE来衡量,MEGAN的确是一间 ‘好公司’.

再看看它的PE.

2000年的EPS只有0.21令吉,以4令吉的价钱来计算,PE就是19.
(4.00 / 0.21 = 19.0)

2005年的EPS是0.30令吉,以1.23的价钱来计算,PE就是4.
(1.23 / 0.30 = 4.1)

以4倍的本益比来衡量,MEGAN肯定是一间 ‘赚大钱’的公司.

深入的研究了MEGAN的过去,再仔细的考虑了它的未来.
我还是认为MEGAN是难得一见的好股.(年年 ‘赚大钱’的 ‘好公司’)

虽然过去的四年它已经令许多‘长线投资者’对它失去了信心.但是,我还是坚信,它是值得长线投资的好股.
(也许对MEGAN而言,四年还不算是长期)

以下是我的研究心得:

MEGAN一共投资了6.3亿来设立庞大的生产线.
(其中的3亿是刚刚投入的生产线)
对于这批新的机器,研究过去的四年是没有意义的.
想一想,这批新机器所能够带来的利润更为有意义.

MEGAN的资产只有4亿,而它的生产线的价值却高达6.3亿.
所以,MEGAN的债务偏高是可以理解的.
我们不必担心它的债务,因为银行比我们更关心.

原料涨价虽然重要,但是原料只是成本的一部分而已.
工资,机器,厂房是产品成本的重点.
如果原料只占成本的10%,就算它涨价80%,它也只是成本的18%而已.

DVD-R的价格稳定,而CD-R的价格上涨,这对盈利的贡献将是直接的.
(最后一季的报告将显示它的贡献)


(注: 目前我的组合里,MEGAN的比重占了30%.)

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 28 of 28 comments

foomeiling

who is 8k, he is in Kota Bharu now right

2012-05-23 10:23

gohchinlim

the worst is megan now is delisted due to fake account problem, how can we assure good share is alway good??..

2012-05-24 09:08

Fat Cat Tim Buddy

this moron ROE also don't understand, i hope he get burned, stop giving false education!

2012-05-24 09:27

aunloke

Look at the dividend, most of all the payout ratio, a stock can seem good because of fraudulent
acc. but nobody cheats to give you the money.

2012-05-24 10:40

Fat Cat Tim Buddy

what about ponzi scheme?

2012-05-24 17:20

aunloke

Yes you have the point, it gives good return first to tempt the victims. That's big time fraud, it needs large capital to fish, hope it won't happen here. Anyway, if the scheme sounds too good to be true it's NOT true. But in stock the fraudulent acc. more or less is used to cover the loss and it's not necessary for the comp. to give the div. to convince the share holders, besides it's hard for the company to come up with the cash as it already suffers a loss.

2012-05-24 17:56

eagleis

I pity 8k, he was conned by the unscrupulous Megan's 'buayas'. We may be conned too. Never put all the eggs in 1 basket. I spread my investment out in about 20 companies. Aunloke is absolutely right. Beware of company like Sam E n E, good results but not a single sen of dividend. Avoid that type of company. I learn a beautiful quote today, 'Nobody cheats to give you money'. Always remember, we rear chicken for the eggs, we rear cow for the milk. We buy share for the dividend.

2012-05-24 18:03

Fat Cat Tim Buddy

but warren buffet berkshire hathaway never pay a dividend?

2012-05-24 19:08

aunloke

He has the name and that is the company intangible asset.

2012-05-24 19:14

Fat Cat Tim Buddy

u said 'We buy share for the dividend.' ?

if so, why would people buy berkshire hathaway ?

the answer is, beside dividend, capital gain also the another factor.

2012-05-24 19:20

eagleis

Warren buffet keeps saying that he pays less tax relatively than people earning less than him. He also keeps saying that the tax structures in USA favour the rich people like him. He's 1 of the smartest guy on earth who understands tax structures thro' and thro'. By not declaring dividend, he actually save taxes for his investors. I invested in bond fund before when shares were flat from Jan to Dec. Prudential bond fund didn't declare any dividend at all so that investors wouldn't have to pay any tax. If an investor needed money, he or she could just sell some units.

2012-05-24 23:14

aunloke

what I'm pointing out here is to use dividend especially the payout ratio as an acid test to the accuracy of the company account and not as the reason we buy share. In fact I would prefer capital gain to dividend which is a useful tool but too small as a reward .

2012-05-25 08:26

eagleis

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/Annweb.nsf/LsvAllByID/482568AD00295D07482572830031B275?OpenDocument

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/Annweb.nsf/LsvAllByID/482568AD00295D07482573FE003D75A2?OpenDocument

When Transmile earned 66 sen/share in 06, no dividend was proposed. A smart and serious investor should question as to why there was no dividend being proposed to the shareholders. Avoid this type of company.

2012-05-25 12:22

aunloke

WE should thank 8K for showing us that his method is not so perfect; we should be happy that we are not learning it the hard way to avoid the pitfall.

2012-05-25 12:52

eagleis

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/LsvAllByID/F2D5CB5B35BBC0AD48257A0700342098?OpenDocument

Sam E & E earned an aggregate of 50 sen in 2011 and 2012 but no dividend. Avoid.

2012-05-25 13:08

eagleis

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/Annweb.nsf/LsvAllByID/482568AD00295D0748256EC2003B4F5B?OpenDocument

Megan made an aggregate about RM1 in 03 and 04 but no dividend. Haiya. Orang Kelete ini tak kenal gua. Kalo dia kenal gua, dia tak akan kena Meganlah. Haha only kiddinglah.

2012-05-25 13:20

eagleis

Melabor ini ada kalanya stress juge! Kenalah buat lawak sikit untuk release tension. Paham tak. Haha.

2012-05-25 13:22

Namoyaki Takarajima

Megan? Megan Fox i kenallah.

2012-05-25 14:53

Namoyaki Takarajima

Megan? Megan Fox i kenallah.

2012-05-25 14:53

James Chieng

how u ppl think of klse.8k? he is a good investor? got many articles written by him. but if he is as bad as some ppl say, so i jz ignore his articles.

2012-05-31 11:29

eagleis

He's a bit stubborn. Despite advice from friends to be careful of Megan. He called up Megan's head office to talk to a manager only to be told that Megan was doing alright. Please tell me where on earth is there a company which says that it's not doing well in the annual report. Please tell me where on earth is there an MD who tells you to sell the shares because the company is not doing well or it's in deep financial difficulties. An illiterate relative of mine who bought tonnes of Omega shares asked me to call up the head office to inquire about its financial position only to be told that it was doing very very fine. It was already too late despite my advice. Needless to say he lost a fortune.

2012-05-31 11:49

James Chieng

Maybe megan is a bad investment for klse.8k. But, maybe he does good in other stocks.

2012-05-31 12:06

eagleis

Even if he does good in other stocks, his portfolio isn't good because the weight of Megan is too heavy.

2012-05-31 12:14

James Chieng

but why there are many people praising and talking about his good, especially in cari.com.my, plus many articles written by him.. just today i know got ppl give him bad comments...so his articles can be read? tq for ur view.

2012-05-31 12:17

eagleis

Overall he's good at investment and is not selfish in sharing his thoughts and experience. The cunning directors of Megan should be locked up till they die in prison and their bodies eaten up by maggots. The prison's keys should be thrown into South China Sea. His misstep is Megan and that costs him dearly. He was conned big time. And because of his good nature, he believed in a Megan's senior manager assurance that the shares were sold because of force selling.

2012-05-31 12:30

jacklew

i think 8k is having a good personality despite being conned by MEGAN. He is very dedicated and meticulous in his investment. Perhaps a little stubborn as he choose to ignore the advices from the friends (perhaps from GOD):-) Other than choosing the wrong counter, he is well respected being an investor. Those losing money because of MEGAN shouldn't blame him as every purchase is at your own risk. That's the risk if you press the buy button by believing someone rather than do your home work. 8K's articles are still worth of reading nowadays.....

2012-05-31 17:53

CP TEH

Hi Kian Wei

I do not follow the posts or what-so here. But, can I know where I could read his articles? Is it in Chinese? I can't read Chinese(too bad).

Is Megan a stock traded in KLSE as I could not find the stock mentioned.


Thanks

TEH

2012-05-31 22:00

CP TEH

Hi Kian Wei

Appreciate your sharing.

Thanks

TEH

2012-05-31 22:51

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