RHB Research

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 20 Jan 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 20 Jan 2014, 10:00 AM

Asia

Japan Raises Its Economic View, Capex Seen On The Rise. Japan raised its assessment on the overall economy for the first time in four months, reflecting strong private consumption and improving capital expenditure, suggesting Tokyo's aggressive stimulus is solidifying an economic recovery. The government on Friday also raised its view on consumer spending for a second straight month, saying it is "increasing" as sentiment remains upbeat and as demand rises ahead of a sales tax hike in April. In addition, with company profits and business conditions recovering, the government upgraded its assessment on capital spending for the first time in four months, saying it is picking up. "The economy is recovering at a moderate pace," the government said in its January report released on Friday, using slightly stronger wording than the previous month when it said the economy was on track towards a moderate recovery. (Reuters)

Japan Machinery Orders Hit Five-Year High. Japanese companies are gearing up for significant new investments in domestic factories, distribution networks and other infrastructure this year, government data suggested on Thursday, in a shift that would bolster the country’s Abenomics-driven expansion. Orders of new machinery by businesses, considered a leading indicator of overall capital investment, surged to a five-year high in November, rising 9.3 % to Y882.6bn. The yearon-year increase, which handily beat analysts’ expectations, was the second in two months and the fifth biggest on record. (FT)

China Showed Modest FDI Rise in 2013. Foreign direct investment in China rose a modest 5.3% last year compared with 2012, and Chinese officials said they expect a steady inflow of capital this year amid a recovering global economy. China's Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday that China attracted a total of $117.6 billion in foreign direct investment in 2013, and that pointed to continued confidence among investors in the health of the world's second-largest economy, a ministry spokesman said Thursday. Foreign direct investment from the U.S. rose 7.1% in 2013 to $3.35 billion, and investment from the European Union increased 18.1% to $7.21 billion, according to ministry data. Combined investment from 10 Asian economies, including Hong Kong and Taiwan, climbed 7.1% to $102.5 billion. (WSJ)

China Home Price Rises Show Signs Of Easing In December. China's home prices continued to surge in December, though the pace of gains overall did not exceed the previous month's and rises eased in some major cities, suggesting that government tightening measures may be starting to bite. Average new home prices in 70 major Chinese cities climbed 0.4 % in December on the month, easing from November's 0.5 % and the fourth straight slowdown since August's 0.8 % gain, according to Reuters calculations from data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Saturday.(Reuters)

China Central Bank Plans Various Tools To Adjust Liquidity. China's central bank will use various tools to adjust liquidity in a flexible way to help maintain appropriate growth in credit and social financing, a senior central bank official said in remarks published on Friday. Rising money market rates and bond yields in recent months indicate the People's Bank of China is committed to curbing high debt levels in the economy to head off potential financial risks, but there is little sign of abrupt policy tightening. "We will use various liquidity management tools in a flexible way and improve the system to appropriately adjust liquidity to maintain reasonable growth in credit and social financing," Zhang Xiaohui, head of the central bank's monetary policy department, wrote in an article published in China Finance magazine, which is run by the central bank. (Reuters)

USA

Job Openings In U.S. Rise To Highest In More Than Five Years. Job openings in the U.S. climbed in November to the highest level in more than five years, a sign the labor market was picking up before the pause in the final month of 2013. The number of positions waiting to be filled increased by 70,000 to 4 million, the most since March 2008, from a revised 3.93 million in October, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The pace of hiring was little changed, and more Americans quit their jobs. (Bloomberg)

Builders Begin Work On More U.S. Homes Than Forecast. Factories churned out more cars and appliances in December and homebuilders overcame inclement weather to begin work on more homes than projected, putting the U.S. economy on a strong footing heading into 2014. Output at factories, mines and utilities climbed 0.3 % to cap the strongest quarter since 2010, according to Federal Reserve figures issued today in Washington. Housing starts fell 9.8 % to a 999,000 annualized rate following November’s 1.11 million pace that was the highest in six years, the Commerce Department reported. (Bloomberg)

Michigan Sentiment Index Decreased To 80.4 In January. Consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly declined in January, a sign spending may take time to accelerate early this year. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment fell to 80.4 from 82.5 in December. Economists in a Bloomberg survey called for a reading of 83.5, according to the median estimate. (Bloomberg)

Europe

U.K. Retail Sales Beat Forecasts With Record Christmas Increase. U.K. retail sales rose more than economists forecast in December, led by a surge at department stores and smaller shops during the key Christmas season. Sales including fuel increased 2.6 % from November, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That’s the strongest December since records began in 1996. The median forecast of 22 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.3% gain last month. Department stores posted a record 8.7 % increase in sales. The pound strengthened. (Bloomberg)

Irish Debt Upgraded From Junk Status By Moody's. The credit rating agency Moody's has upgraded Ireland's debt from junk status to investment grade, saying its economy has growth potential. The news is the latest in a run of positive reports for Ireland and comes as investors start to welcome the chance to invest in the country through its governmentissued bonds. Moody's was the only one of three key agencies to class the debt as "junk". An investment grade mark means more investors can buy Irish debt. Moody's has lifted its rating, which appear as a sometimes complex series of numbers from Ba1 to Baa3. (BBC)

European Car Sales Fell At Slower Rate In 2013. New car registrations in the European Union fell 1.7% in 2013, largely thanks to a sales slump in Italy and France. The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) said11.8 million new cars were sold across the region, about 200,000 fewer than in the previous year. But the decline was much less than the 8.2% fall recorded in 2012 - the sector's worst result for 18 years. Italy's new car sales fell 7.1%, while France's fell 5.7%. Even Germany, the EU's strongest economy, saw sales slide 4.2%, says the ACEA. By contrast, the UK was buoyant, with sales rising 10.8%, boosted in particular by a strong performance from Tata-owned Jaguar Land Rover. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Up Broadly As Week’s Data Outweigh Jobs Shock. The U.S.dollar gained against most rivals Friday, as a week of data reassured investors that December’s dismal employment report wasn’t indicative of a broader shift in the economy. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against six rivals, rose to 81.245 from 80.904 late Thursday. The pound rose to $1.6410 from $1.6359 late Thursday. For the week, it fell 0.4% against the greenback. The euro fell to $1.3528 from $1.3619 late Thursday. The dollar traded at ¥104.26 versus ¥104.29, and was up 0.1% against the yen on the week. In other forex action, the Australian dollar dropped to 87.74 U.S. cents from 88.15 U.S. cents late Thursday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Rises On Gasoline, Heating Fuel Demand. Demand for heating fuels and rising gasoline prices drove oil higher on Friday, but gains were limited by a stronger dollar and expectations for increased supply from Libya and Iran. Brent oil for March delivery settled up 73 cents at$106.48 a barrel, rebounding from the two-month low of $105.44 it hit earlier in the day. U.S. crude settled at a two-week high, up 41 cents at $94.37 a barrel, reversing two weeks of losses. (Reuters)

Gold Up 4th Straight Week, Deutsche Quits Gold Price-Setting. Gold rose on Friday as weakness in U.S. equities, strong fund buying and Asian physical demand lifted bullion to its fourth consecutive weekly gain. Spot gold, which fell initially, climbed 0.8 % to $1,252.11 an ounce by 2:45 p.m. EST (1945 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver rose 1.2 % to $20.29 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.7 % to $1,448.99 an ounce, while palladium was up 0.5 % to $743.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

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