2013 Market Cap of Bursa = RM1,706 billion

2013 GDP of Malaysia = RM787.6 billion

2013 Household Debt of Malaysia = 86.8% of GDP (RM683.6 billion)

Market Cap/GDP = 216% (is this high compare with previous years?)

Statistics as at 31 Dec 2013 (From The Edge)

1.  EPF                       RM597b

2. PNB                        RM237b

3. Khazanah              RM135b

4. KWAP                     RM96b

5. LTH                         RM84b

6. LTAT                       RM73b

7. 1MDB                      RM45b

8. Equity Nasional    RM2.6b

9. Johor Corp             RM18.7b

10. PKNS                    RM4.2b

EPF

1. For 31 Dec 2013, EPF has invested 43% of its fund in equities.  Historically, it was between 20-30%.  The total invested in equity is rather high at RM256b

Unit Trust  (17 million holders)

1.  Unit trust NAV as at 31 Dec 2013 is RM349.3b.  It is also quite a high figure, and unit trust has been growing 10-15% p.a. over the last 5-10 yrs.

PNB (11 million holders)

1. Largest fund management in Malaysia.  In its website, it claims that asset under its management is RM255b.  Say, 50% invested in equity, the amount is RM127b.

OTHERS

1. Khazanah, KWAB, LTH and LTAT, say 20% in equity, the amount is RM78b

TOTAL invested in EQUITY

EPF + UT + PNB + OTHERS = 256 + 349 + 127 + 78 = 810b

or equal to 47% of Market Cap of Bursa @ 31 Dec 2013

(Will update the statistics when ther are new data or information which is deemed important)

Market Cap/RGDP       R.GDP        EPF in equity/%

2005     131%            544         103/19%

2006     150%           574

2007     174%           610

2008    84%              640

2009    132%            630

2010    172%           677

2011    141%            712

2012     156%         752

2013     216%         788            256/43%

ADDITIONAL UPDATES

6 JULY 2014

Market Cap = RM1.7 trllion, PE of 17 x, i.e. Earnigns = RM100b p.a.  Expected to grow at about 11% for 2014.

Out of RM100 billion earnings, do you know how much is the Banking industry contributing?

The last I check, about 30 to 35%.  Is it high?

7 JULY 2014

EPF FUNDS IN EQUITY

2005 19% RM103 b

2009 30% RM189 b

2013 43% RM256 b

The CAGR is 12% p.a. (over 2005 to 2013 - about 8 years) whereas the EPF's CAGR for the same period is only 4.75% p.a. Now you can see gradually why our share market has went up so much.

UNIT TRUST FUNDS

2005 98.5b

2013 349b

The CAGR is about 17%.  

COMPARISON

                             RGDP            MCAP           EPF+UNIT TRUST   Property debt

2005                   544               716                  202                                98

2013                   788              1702                 605                              444 (to check)                     

DIFF                    244              986                  403

Growth               1.5x               2.4x                  3.0x

CAGR                 4.75%          11.4%              14.75%

DID the market cap out running GDP?  Yes, based on the figures above, real GDP compounding growth is about 4.75% p.a. while the market capitalisation of Bursa is growing at about 11.4%.  Can this continue for a long run? Look at the participation of EPF in equity as well as Unit Trust, they have grown at compounded of about 15% p.a., even faster than the Market Capitalisation, now you know why our market is so high.  Is it sustainable?  Very much depends on the big boys & little boys (EPF & UT), their percentage in market cap has grown from 28% (2005) to about 35% (2013).

Wait, one more element I like to add into the equation is the Debt increase in the Banking System (Private Debt) since 2005 to 2013 as well as the Public Debt (Government Debt)