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SOS Does Charlie Munger's Investment Principles works?

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Publish date: Tue, 20 Feb 2018, 05:37 PM
VALUATION DOES NOT DETERMINE THE PRICE, IT'S JUST A TOOL TO ESTIMATE A VALUE OF A BIZ

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“You need a different checklist and different mental models for different companies. I can never make it eary by saying, ‘Here are three things.’ You have to derive it yourself to ingrain it in your head for the rest of your life.” —Munger

Charlie Munger’s Investment Principles

1. Risk—All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational

  • Incorporate an appropriate margin of safety
  • Avoid dealing with people of questionable character
  • Insist upon proper compensation for risk assumed
  • Always beware of inflation and interest rate exposures
  • Avoid big mistakes; shun permanent capital loss

2. Independence—“Only in fairy tales are emperors told they are naked”

  • Objectivity and rationality require independence of thought
  • Remember that just because other people agree or disagree with you doesn’t make you right or wrongthe only thing that matters is the correctness of your analysis and judgment
  • Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean (merely average performance)

3. Preparation—“The only way to win is to work, work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights”

  • Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day
  • More important than the will to win is the will to prepare
  • Develop fluency in mental models from the major academic disciplines
  • If you want to get smart, the question you have to keep asking is “why, why, why?”

4. Intellectual humility—Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom

  • Stay within a well-defined circle of competence
  • Identify and reconcile disconfirming evidence
  • Resist the craving for false precision, false certainties, etc.
  • Above all, never fool yourself, and remember that you are the easiest person to fool

5. Analytic rigor—Use of the scientific method and effective checklists minimizes errors and omissions

  • Determine value apart from price; progress apart from activity; wealth apart from size
  • It is better to remember the obvious than to grasp the esoteric
  • Be a business analyst (Porter's 5 Forces), not a market, macroeconomic, or security analyst
  • Consider totality of risk and effect; look always at potential second order and higher level impacts
  • Think forwards and backwardsInvert, always invert

6. Allocation—Proper allocation of capital is an investor’s number one job

  • Remember that highest and best use is always measured by the next best use (opportunity cost)
  • Good ideas are rarewhen the odds are greatly in your favor, bet (allocate) heavily
  • Don’t “fall in love” with an investmentbe situation-dependent and opportunity-driven

7. Patience—Resist the natural human bias to act

  • “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world” (Einstein); never interrupt it unnecessarily
  • Avoid unnecessary transactional taxes and frictional costs; never take action for its own sake
  • Be alert for the arrival of luck
  • Enjoy the process along with the proceeds, because the process is where you live

8. Decisiveness—When proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction

  • Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
  • Opportunity doesn’t come often, so seize it when it does
  • Opportunity meeting the prepared mind: that’s the game

9. Change—Live with change and accept un-removable complexity

  • Recognize and adapt to the true nature of the world around you; don’t expect it to adapt to you
  • Continually challenge and willingly amend your “best-loved ideas”
  • Recognize reality even when you don’t like itespecially when you don’t like it

10. Focus—Keep things simple and remember what you set out to do

  • Remember that reputation and integrity are your most valuable assetsand can be lost in a heartbeat
  • Guard against the effects of hubris and boredom
  • Don’t overlook the obvious by drowning in minutiae
  • Be careful to exclude unneeded information or slop: “A small leak can sink a great ship”
  • Face your big troubles; don’t sweep them under the rug

The Constant Search for Better Methods of Thought

Since humans began investing, they have been searching for a magic formula or easy recipe for instant wealth.

Charlie’s superior performance doesn’t come from a magic formula or business-school-inspired system.

It comes from his “constant search for better methods of thought,” a willingness to “prepay” through rigorous preparation, and from the extraordinary outcomes of his multidisciplinary research model.

In the the end, it comes down to Charlie’s most basic guiding principles, his fundamental philosophy of life: Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Each attribute is in turn lost without the other, but together they form the dynamic critical mass for a cascading of positive effects for which Munger is famous (the “lollapalooza” ).

Finally, a word or two on why this overview of Charlie’s investment philosophy has focused so much on the subject of “what to buy” and so little on “when to sell.” ‘the answer, in Charlie’s own words, serves as a wonderful summation of the “Munger School” of highly-concentrated, focused investing described here: 

“We’re partial to putting out large amounts of money where we won’t make another decision. If you buy something because it’s undervalued, then you have to think about selling it when it approaches your calculation if its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But, if you can buy a few, great companies, then you can sit on ass. That’s a good thing.”

Like his hero, Benjamin Franklin, Charlie Munger painstakingly developed and perfected unique approaches to personal and business endeavors.

Through these methods, and the development and maintenance of sound, lifelong habits, he has achieved extraordinary success.

"continuing learning is the pillar of preparing yourself for the opportunities.  knowledge is useless without successful application."
 
 
"market does not goes in a linear way.  whatever the market knows, is priced in today. one must learn to see two to three years forward that others unable to see yet."
 
1.  Investment must be independent - based on objectivity and rationality
2.  Different stocks, uses different models (different country has different characteristics)
3.  Invest in your own circle of competence.  
4.  Normally it's the 2-3 ideas for hedge fund managers to achieve 80% of result, instead of wasting time with 20-30 ideas.
5.  Market and economy is not connected, don't waste time trying to connect them.  Its more of sentiment and liquidity driven
6.  Investment is for long term (Malaysia perspecitve, as most companies have <20 years history), long term can be 3-5 years and of course monitor time every 6-12 months.
 
 
 
 
Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 1 of 1 comments

Zai Zai

thanks as usual

2018-02-20 23:23

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