i3 Stocks Competition Game (Closing 30 March 2018)
Total about RM7.8m invested, loss about RM1.2m, average down about 15%.
The statistic shows that when whole market is down, whatever method you use, as long as you stay invested, on average, >90% of the participant loss. To be exact, 4 out of 78 will lose money.
This also clearly shows that most of the participants focus on second and third liners, the more volatile stocks since this is just a "hypothesis game".
Even in reality, the CI 30 stocks hover with a positive of 5%, only about 4 stocks achieve about 15%. Now, you take 4 out of 30, you only have a 13% chance this year to achieve more than 15%. The odds is very low (at least for 2018). Based on the above, NOBODY achieve >15% in the i3 game
The morale is, the 30CI stocks may be doing fine, the other 900 counters has gone down more than 15%. That is today's sentiment (GE uncertainty + Trade war issues + Interest rate concern)
LONG TERM INVESTORS
How many of us hold shares more than 10 years? I believe, less than 10%, although I know a few, they are 80 years old, some of the stocks, they even hold more than 30 years. If you do the same for a piece of land in Cameron Highland 30 years ago, very high chance you will do many times better than the share markets.
On the same pretext, should we buy a piece of land, and wait for 20-30 years? At least it won't subject to the participant sentiment?
STOCKS or PROPERTIES or LAND?
Anyone?
DON'T FORGET ABOUT INDEX FUNDS- for people don't have time to research stocks or not interested in financial markets
WHY? In US, only 1% active manager can out performed the S&P500 index funds, in the long run (>20 years). You think you can?
Similarly, less than 0.0001% people can do better than Warren Buffett over the last 30-40 years. You think you can?
Mutual funds, and unit trusts is like buffets of dishes on a long banquet table (>500 types), by the time you are able to choose the top 5 mutual funds, you would have educate yourself how to choose 5-10 good stocks across different industries, and better yet, don't need to pay for the service and management fees.
A research was done why many get mediocre returns even though their funds did well. An they find out those who do better than their funds, by investing in the funds, are those people who:
1) have died
2) forgot they have mutual funds
3) invested during a market crash
Try VOO or VTSOX
VOO - S&P 500
VTSOX - about 3600 stocks, is Vanguard Total World Stocks (S&P500 weightage is 80%)
For those who don't have time to research and pick individual stocks, invest say 70% into (VOO or VTSOX) and keep 30% in CASH or Bond Index. When market crashes, rebalance more cash/bonds to VOO/VTOX.
qqq3
KLCI is the top 30 stocks by market cap...that is not the portfolio of i3 members
2018-03-31 09:37