Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H
Stock Pick Challenge - [HAIO] by kcchongnz
海鷗
http://www.youtube.com/watch?
Hai-O Enterprise Berhad is engaged in the wholesaling and retailing of herbal medicines and healthcare products and investment holding. The Company operates in five segments: wholesale, which include wholesaling and trading in herbal medicines and healthcare products, herbs and tea; multi-level marketing, which include operating multi-level direct marketing of health food, healthcare, wellness and beauty products; retail, including retail chain stores; manufacturing, which include manufacturing, producing and distributing pharmaceutical products and health food, and technology, which provide heat transmission and energy saving technology. The Company is also operating in leasing of machinery and equipment, licensed money lender, insurance agent, advertising services, rental income and investment holding.
During the US sublime crisis, Haio’s revenue had a fantastic rise from 374m in 2008 to 511m in 2012. Its net profit also rose in tandem from 49.1m to 71.9m. That was the time its share price rose to an all time high of RM5.40 in March 2010. Then suddenly in 2011, its revenue and net profit plunged from a cliff to 223m and 29.7m respectively, both less than half of the previous year (Table 1 below). These couple of years, the revenue of this fallen angel slowly rises from the trough to 268m last year. Its profit has risen at a much faster rate to 43.5m. Will it go back to its days of glory?
Let us refer to Greenblatt’s Magic Formula to see if Haio is a good company having a great business. Then we will do a little computation to determine if it is worth investing at the present price of RM2.72. For those who are interested in the Magic formula, you could go to the following link for the explanation.
http://klse.i3investor.com/
The key driving formulas used by Greenblatt for his Magic Formula are:
• Return on Invested Capital = EBIT*(1-tax rate) / (Fixed Assets + Net Working Capital)
• Earnings Yield = EBIT / Enterprise Value
From the computation based on the financial statements of Haio ended 30 April 2013, and the price of Haio at RM2.72, the following are obtained:
ROIC=43061/148000=29%
EY=58716/407967=14.4%
Hence it can be seen that Haio has a great business with a high return on invested capital of 29%, much higher than its cost of capital. Its earnings yield of 14.4% is also good as it is above my minimum 12% requirement.I would say buying the stock of Haio now at RM2.72 is a good move to invest in a good company at a reasonable price. This is the fourth stock in my portfolio.
Table 1: Revenue and net profit of Haio
| Year | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
| Revenue | 267,920 | 239,533 | 223,254 | 511,064 | 435,216 | 373,823 |
| Net Income | 43,491 | 35,702 | 29,710 | 71,863 | 53,010 | 49,118 |
Posted by kcchongnz at Aug 3, 2013 06:34 PM
What is the intrinsic value of Haio?
“If we think through these questions, we can gain some insights about what may be called “owner earnings.” These represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges less ( c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume. (If the business requires additional working capital to maintain its competitive position and unit volume, the increment also should be included in ( c) . – 1986 Berkshire letter
Warren Buffet stated that the value of a company is simply the total of the net cash flows attributed to the common shareholders (owner earnings) expected to occur over the life of the business, discounted by an appropriate interest rate.
To compute the intrinsic value of Haio, first we will need to estimate the current owner earnings based on Buffet’s interpretation. Next we need to assume a growth rate for the next 5 years. Then a terminal growth rate of 3% is used to assume that Haio will grow at that rate forever after that which is about the growth in GDP. These future earnings will be discounted to present value to obtain the intrinsic value of Haio.
The discount rate is related to what is the required return by the equity holders; i.e. how much risk premium above the risk-free rate would be required. For most practical purpose, in contrast with the academic approach in capital asset pricing model, a risk premium applied is related to how stable the earnings and cash flow of the company and its financial health. Haio’s earnings and cash flows have been positive for the last 6 years as shown in the Table 1 below. It has a healthy balance sheet. So it would be conservative to apply a risk premium of 6% above the MGS rate (currently about 4%), or a required return of 10% (4%+6%).
Next is the assumption of growth rate which is crucial for the determination of the intrinsic value. Last year, the revenue and profit of Haio grew by 12% and 21% respectively. Thanks to the growth in its multi-level marketing in the higher sale of food and beverage consumer products, personal care and wellness products. I will use a growth in profit of 15% for the next 5 years. Other data and assumptions are shown as below:
Data
2013 Revenue 268 m
2013 net profit 43.5 m
Capex 10.5 m
Depreciation 5.3 m
Working capital 35 m
Assumptions
Growth for the next 5 years 15%
Terminal growth rate 3%
Required return 10%
ROE in stable growth 12%
The discount cash flow analysis of the owner earnings yield an intrinsic value of 775m, or RM3.83 per share. At the close of its share price at 2.72 on 2nd August 2013, the margin of safety is 29%, or an upside potential of 41%. The question is what if the growth of the owner earnings is a different value? Table 2 below shows the theoretical intrinsic value of Haio at different growth rates.
Table 2; Scenario analysis
| Growth rate | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Intrinsic value | 2.15 | 2.61 | 3.17 | 3.83 | 4.62 | 5.53 | 6.59 |
| Upside | -21.00% | -4.00% | 16.50% | 40.80% | 69.90% | 103.30% | 142.30% |
Haio at RM2.72 on 2/8/13
If the growth rate of Haio’s owner earnings is 5% instead of 15%, the intrinsic value is RM2.61. There is a downside potential of 4% if you buy Haio now at RM2.72. However, if the growth rate is higher than expected 15%, say at 25% for the next 5 years, its intrinsic value is RM5.53, or an upside potential of 103.3%.
So what do you think is the growth rate of Haio for the next years?
Table 1: Earnings and cash flows of Haio
| Year | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
| Revenue | 267,920 | 239,533 | 223,254 | 511,064 | 435,216 | 373,823 |
| Net Income | 43,491 | 35,702 | 29,710 | 71,863 | 53,010 | 49,118 |
| CFFO | 36,359 | 50,062 | 13,870 | 69,196 | 53,427 | 53,765 |
| FCF | 25,834 | 47,121 | 1,582 | 65,541 | 33,721 | 51,938 |
Related Stocks
| Chart | Stock Name | Last | Change | Volume |
|---|
More articles on Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H
So what is wrong with the pick on Kumpulan Fima which lost 2.4% since a year ago? - kcchongnz
Created by Tan KW | Jan 02, 2014
Hexza and Graham net-net and high dividend yield investing strategy - kcchongnz
Created by Tan KW | Nov 08, 2013
Graham Net-Net Investment Strategy and some property companies - kcchongnz
Created by Tan KW | Sep 06, 2013
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 50 of 86 comments
Tan KW, you can deduce the par value by looking at the earnings or the equity attributed to common shareholders and the share capital.
EPS=net income attributed to shareholders/No of shares, or NAB=Equity/No of shares.
2013-08-04 11:31
Hi :
Among MLM i.e. Amway, HaiO and Zhulian, I like Zhulian the most for
i) highest div yield
ii) highest PAT
iii) highest net margin
iv) highest growing profit contribution from oversea ventures seeing the limited if not saturated domestic market
v) bigger market cap which is approaching the US$1bn market cap factor(in this perspective Amway is better)
vi) higher and more consistent growing rate in net profit
vii) self mfg products with no risk on discontinuation on exclusivity
viii) My Sifu, Mr. Fong SiLing is one of the major shareholder(his name is no longer appeared in Annual Report 2012, he may have sold some and converted to GTronic)
I started to accumulate the 1st batch of Zhulian in celebration for the birth of my daughter in 2008 at RM0.91 which is now almost zero cost after ~RM0.70 div so far and 1: 3 bonus in 2010.
Including those accumulated at higher cost after 2008, my current average cost is RM1.1 excluding the received div each year. So the div yield is about 0.155/1.1=14%. My point is buying a good high yield counter and keep for long term, we can achieve financial freedom. By the way, Zhulian has been locked for the education fund for my daughter who is at 5 now.
Thks
2013-08-04 11:55
par value is normally in RM1.00, 50 sen, 10 sen etc. So the no. of shares you have computed is close to share capital/0.5. so the no. of shares is share capital (101m)/0.5=202m. There is a small discrepancy because of the treasury shares. So for a normal case, no of shares outstanding=share capital/par value, or par value=share capital/no. of shares
2013-08-04 12:19
good on you,bengpg. I still remember Zhulian's IPO price when it went public at RM 1.23.IT didn't do very well,fell below RM 1.00 to around 0.85 sen if not mistaken. I bought it @ 0.88-0.90 and have kept it ever since. Zhulian will grow bigger in coming years as it expand to Indonesia and that it one huge market.
2013-08-04 12:45
Hi KC : to me, a non financial guy, you are very professional as you know how to use financial analysis tools and very kind and generous to share your homework. THANK YOU. I am following your posting and tracking your recommendation.
I like KFima as you and have accumulated since early 2011. My cost is low and thus yield is high and I will keep it for longer term. However I do not buy more as I have concern on its relatively small market cap and the pure color in Board of Directors. To me, a competitive company should be meritocracy oriented which should “generally” not a single color in BOD.
Thanks
2013-08-04 12:47
Hi faberlicious :
Thanks for giving me an opportunity to communicate with the same fan of Zhulian. I am a fan on GTronic as well, how about you ? Regards
2013-08-04 12:57
Posted by bsngpg > Aug 4, 2013 12:47 PM | Report Abuse
Hi KC : to me, a non financial guy, you are very professional as you know how to use financial analysis tools and very kind and generous to share your homework. THANK YOU. I am following your posting and tracking your recommendation.
I like KFima as you and have accumulated since early 2011. My cost is low and thus yield is high and I will keep it for longer term. However I do not buy more as I have concern on its relatively small market cap and the pure color in Board of Directors. To me, a competitive company should be meritocracy oriented which should “generally” not a single color in BOD.
Thanks
I understand your concern. Every person is different. Anyway, there are thousands of companies to invest in Bursa, invest in one you are comfortable with.
2013-08-04 13:23
bsngpg, I share your view on Zhulian as below:
Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 19, 2012 01:45 PM | Report Abuse X
NZ,Is Zhulain a great company? Absolutely.
Zhulian's financial performance, balance sheet and cash flows are absolutely awesome. I did a detail analysis and made a valuation of Zhulian on 27/7/12 when it was 2.17. It has now gone up 27% to 2.75 now. Is it still a good investment at this price? Absolutely in my opinion. My discount free cash flows of owner's earnings using conservative assumption of 8% growth for the next 5 years and 3% thereafter with a discount rate of 10% shows the intrinsic value of Zhulian at 3.40, still another 24% upside. Well done NZ.
Also see my post from link below to see my comparison of Haio and Zhulian.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900312629.jsp
2013-08-04 13:28
bsngpg, just read some of your posts in Maybank thread. You are a good investors. Hope you can join in more of our discussions.
2013-08-04 14:03
Zhulian and Amway are good examples of MLM direct sales companies that sells quality products rather than dependant on membership fees. As this is the HAIO discussion, I did not want to drag other companies in, but just to highlight what HAIO's recruitment strategy is.
Though I study financial statements of companies, its just a history, and not necessary of what things to come. I prefer the feeling on the ground, talking to people directly involved or affected and have some idea where the product or company is heading to.
Today's analysts (banks and IBs) just sits in front of their computer and after keying some numbers, comes out with their magical target price. There is a particular counter which is terribly affected by the recent BNM ruling, yet many analysts are TP ing at 25 to 30% above its present price. I shudder to think of the consequences should it drop by 30% in 6 months time. The analyst will just downgrade the counter as price drops, leaving the poor investor who followed their recommended TP to hold the baby. But in this case, its the investor who is crying.
2013-08-04 14:44
bsngpg, I own Gtronic before the share consolidation 5 into 1 exercise.That time it is around 20 sen ! only.Too bad I sold off all my Gtronic already. Gone..... :(
2013-08-04 15:11
Hi KC and Apprentice :
We are investing with hard earned money. If one has doubt on Hai-O’s recruitment scheme, do not invest. Fong SiLing and Warren Buffett said that we should not invest if you do not understand the company.
My view : Haio recruitment scheme was skewed to membership fee before the revamp by government sometime in 2010/11 . I believe now it has changed and the uptrend in earning from MLM was achieved by healthy scheme, abiding the government new ruling. One very good point by Apprentice was that BNM ruling on personal loan which I believe somehow will slow down Hai-O’s MLM activities among civil servants.
Anyway, as I have doubt, I will not invest into. Even if I have no doubt, I will not invest into Hai-O at the current historical high on KLCI. I can wait, if I miss the boat, there are plenty of other boats coming.
By the way I very Respect and Appreciate sharing from KC and also the different view from Apprentice.
Thank you
2013-08-04 15:48
apprentice, agree with you in many aspects. I also wonder why the analysts still recommending that stock (hope that is the one you refer to) you mentioned despite the recent Bank Negara ruling.
That membership fees you are talking about of Haio, 33k, still the same thing? and selling expensive but useless stuff through MLM? Or was it the case in 2009-2010 before the new rules of direct selling which adversely affected Haio's MLM and now it is not the case any more? You definitely know better than many people here since you have friends there. Could you verify and confirm that?
Your statement "Though I study financial statements of companies, its just a history, and not necessary of what things to come. I prefer the feeling on the ground, talking to people directly involved or affected and have some idea where the product or company is heading to."
Yeah, talking to people etc is what Philip Fisher called scuttle-butting. It is a must if you want to be a very successful investor. But few people have that kind of luxury, don't you think so? So for people who don't have that luxury, how should they invest? Or how would they know the company they are interested is worth investing?
Ok everybody on the street say this company is good. The company products are good but how do you know they make good profit? And how much are you willing to pay? How do you decide?
Yeah those financial statements are history but what else can we rely on to decide and answer those questions above? What do you think about this guy Joel Greenblatt's investing strategy of investing in good companies at reasonable and cheap price from the link below?
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/34313.jsp
2013-08-04 15:52
@apprentice, f.statement(multiple) must be combined then only the picture is complete for further assessment, say rolling 4 qtrs at least. another "risk" is all statement went thru some level of "massage", therefore regardless v can never trust it 100%, cannot invest 100% base on paper value.
2013-08-04 16:14
the same go to analyst TP, often it has something to do with commercial relationship, counter in IB portfolio tend to get better rating, talk only the bright side, ignore dark side :)
2013-08-04 16:25
Thank you to those who contributed, kc, iafx, bsn, abundance. It good to throw a few spanners into the works and get good feedbacks.
2013-08-06 08:30
"Today's analysts (banks and IBs) just sits in front of their computer and after keying some numbers, comes out with their magical target price" Well said, thats why we do not simply put in the data to compute the fair value. otherwise its really misleading
2013-08-06 08:57
Tan KW, yeah I have read your posting on this. Thank you for the good article.
I wrote my piece on Haio just based on my own thought without reading any articles about Haio from any analysts. Reading the above posting by you, it appears that my thought was very similar to that analyst. I didn't have information about that part on potential higher dividend payout though.
2013-08-06 14:04
Haio reported a poorer results for the first quarter 2014. Investors reacted strongly to this poorer performance, the price has already dropped by about 5% this morning.
That is why I always say valuation is an art. It depends a lot on your forecast in the future, and nobody can predict the future. He can only use the economic outlook and its recent past to try to have a good guess of its future. Hence in valuation I like to use conservative assumptions to get the intrinsic value, and buy the share when there is good margin of safety.
But does Haio warrants for a sell off just a poorer one quarter result? Is the poorer result due to seasonality?
To me, it depends on whether you are a trader or an investor.
2013-09-20 09:35
Hey iafx, long time no see. Try making fun of me? Good, I am always ready for you.
Have you sworn that you did not change the "revenue" to profit in the Kfima thread? So long still haven't seen the response from you yet.
2013-09-20 10:35
iafx, remember also that Pintaras you criticizing like mad on my analysis. You even asked people to sell at 2.70, just less than a year ago? It is RM6.08 now, not including 19 sen dividends received.
What say you?
But actually the worst part of you is to change that word "revenue" to "profit" and then came back and accuse me of changing. That is the worst from of cheating and accusing.
How do you aspect people to respect you?
2013-09-20 10:42
As to the statement below. Let me just say I don't have to cover up anything and no need to be defensive also. Not until if he starts to attack personally.
Posted by ryanc > Sep 20, 2013 10:21 AM | Report Abuse
Good way to cover up a lousy stock pick. :)
I am more interested to know why this iafx fellow can change something in the Kfima thread, and then kept on accusing me altering it, and then kept on and on to attack me personally.
But how ah? Every time he appears to make a jab at me, then when I ask him something about the credibility of him as a person, he just disappears?
2013-09-20 11:05
Hi : I am very please to inform that I am now officially one of the member of Hai-O after buying in at 2.62 just now. I started a very close following process since Aug13. Today the opportunity appeared, so I just grabbed it. I plan to keep it for very long term as long as its fundamental does not deteriorated. If it drops further later, I will accumulate more. Thank you.
2013-09-20 15:12
bsngpg, how come you also buy Haio? I think Zhulian is a better stock in this business. Yeah I know you already been holding Zhulian for long time. I would think it is still good to hold.
But on the other hand, good to diversify a little bit. I do believe in diversification, theoretically as well as practically.
2013-09-20 15:39
Why I bought Hai-O :
i) Use hard money to show support while people said you cover up.
ii) You said “good to hold Zhulian” while buy on Hai-O. So listen to you lol.
Actual reasons are “Buy when others sell” and diversification. Furthermore Hai-O will not pull down my grand div yield.
At the moment I still have faith that Hai-O has good growth trend in long term. The best opportunity is that when I have confident on long term earning of a company and others sold due to short term jerk on earning.
I want to share that I can wait patiently since 4 Aug till today to buy in the targeted counter.
Thks
Thks
2013-09-20 19:37
bsngpg, is there a reason to buy at this current price? today it looks as it might be a one day drop for consolidation or falling knife...price is still high from all the climbing up few days before. you seem like a very experienced investor.. so i do value your input.
2013-09-20 20:09
@bsngpg
"At the moment I still have faith that Hai-O has good growth trend in long term. The best opportunity is that when I have confident on long term earning of a company and others sold due to short term jerk on earning. "
Well, would likely to hear from you about MLM business. As we know, MLM business always selling their "premium" products in "premium" price, ANWAY is a real good example. We can see retail shop for this MLM business as well (Well i do not know much on it, do they have retail shop for long time ago?) Anyway i am not familiar with it and hopefully you can share me with your insights. Thanks first.
2013-09-20 21:00
I'm also now a shareholder of Hai-O,just bought @2.61.My
collection is now complete.I've all 3- Amway,Zhulian and Hai-O.Nice !
2013-09-21 18:27
Faberlicious, good on you. In my opinion, they are all good companies. Why good companies?
When a company has high margins, high roe, ROIC and great cash flows consistently, how not to be good companies?
Best still if they are selling at reasonable or even cheap price.
How do we know their business model is good? Isn't it all shown in those consistent metrics? What other proof do you need?
2013-09-21 18:38
Nabs, remember you said I were bingo? You are wrong here again, impartiality knows quite some stuff though he talks rough.
2013-09-21 18:45
Iwalk : I am a bit perplexed and seduced by the hot market. In normal case I should not buy Hai-O at the current valuation. Thank you for your timely reminder. I will pull hand brake here on. Thousand thanks.
2013-09-22 15:22
Why I bought Hai-O on 20Sep2013 at RM2.62 :
1. People(most important factor): I trust Mr Tan Kai Hee as I follow his backgrounds on either corporate, social or politic arenas. I read a lot to establish the confident level. It is very personal. On company perspective, I trust the integrity and capability of him and his management team in stewarding the company.
2. Profit : The company is making profit each year from 07 to current. The net profit was growing from 2007 to 2010 then hitting wall and tumbled significantly. The growth trend on PAT has resumed since 12 to current. Is the drop in Q114 signals the down trend again? Does it has consistency issue as before? Maybe I were too nervous judging thing based on result of single quarter. The past good growth in the last few quarters was pushed by special promotion and once the promotion ceased, the profit tumbled along. This indicates the profitability is not healthy and raises question on its long term sustainability. I have concern on these as I am a small fish who have no luxury to take risk. Furthermore it has poor record in 2011.
3. Growth : About the same as the above mentioned on profit.
4. Healthy financial status : net cash
5. Products : has good demand and very elastic. Evolve along with market trend.
6. Dividend : Minimum DPO 50%. Current yield is about 5% which is higher than FD.
Thks and looking forward for your comments.
2013-09-22 16:07
Posted by xyzsim > Sep 21, 2013 06:52 PM | Report Abuse
any similar counter like pintaras ?
What do you mean similar counter? Do you mean construction companies with the same operating efficiencies as Pintaras, or same compounded annual return like Pintaras as below?
As for the former, I doubt so as Pintaras operating metrics, cash flows, balance sheet, hard to find one construction company to match. Even at its enterprise value now it is also hard to find one so cheap. So it may not mean Pintaras won't be able to continue to provide excess return in the future.
As for the later, I think it is also very difficult to find many matching the kind of return. For example the one year return of 103%, and 5 year compounded annual return of 37.5%, >3 times the return of the market. Of course there are because there are so many companies in the Bursa. But it is really difficult to find many with consistent CAR of about 50% each period for up to five years.
Year 1 2 3 4 5
CAR Pintaras 103.0% 59.3% 51.0% 44.2% 37.5%
CAR KLSE 10.9% 14.8% 7.1% 10.2% 11.9%
Anymore of this type of return? Sure there should be. But one has to scout among the small capitalized stocks with good business, great operating metrics and cash flows.
In my portfolio, I am hoping Kumpulan Fima can follow the footsteps of Pintaras.
One thing you must know, for fundamental stocks, it takes time for investors to discover, months, years, unlike technical, which traders can make 50% or 100% within days basing on trading on momentum. But definitely not for FA.
2013-09-22 16:15
Why I bought Hai-O on 20Sep13 at RM2.62 ?
Last year eps was 24 sens. Assuming growth rate is 20%(2012=17%, 2013=40%), eps of FY14 is 29 sens. At PE 10x, price of next year is RM2.90. At the current hot market, PE can be >10X easily. Every 1x ups, price will up by RM0.29 sens. If PE 12X, price is RM3.48 next year with dividend 14.5sens=5.5% yield. So, why not to buy Hai-O at RM2.62 ?
2013-09-22 16:23
Why I chicken out from Hai-O on 22Sep13 at RM2.62 ?
The stupid Q1 with eps 4.46 sens woke me up. Q1 at 4.46 sens is one off poor earning only or reflecting the true earning capability? Nobody knows the answer. So I have to take risk on this.
If the eps at 4.46 sens repeats for the next few qtrs, the eps of FY14 is 17.8 sens with div at 8.9sen=yield 3.4% @RM2.62. At PE 10X, price in 2014 is RM1.78 and yield 3.4%. Why should I buy it at this level of valuation at the current hot market?
So I chicken out.
2013-09-22 16:40
Hi ipomember : Sorry I do not have insight on MLM business. I have decided to chicken out from Hai-O.
If I have time next weekend, I may write some. Now I am at home for holiday.
Thks.
2013-09-22 16:50
Ipomember: I do not have special insight on MLM. Since you talked about MLM, I would like to share with you some tips on personal health which are related to MLM.
As many friends especially those frequent travelers, we frequently have sore throat-flu-cough. At once about 10 years ago, a friend recommended to take 4 tablets of vit-c from Amway per day. It was very effective and gained my confident immediately. Since then, I took vit-c from Amway regularly and can say that till now I have almost no more severe flu-cough-sore throat. Touch wood and thanks god.
Wherever my kids showed early symptom of flu-cough, I gave them vit-c from Amway, most of the time(not all the time), we managed to get thru without doctor.
One of the friend(old biz man) at 75 but looks as strong and active as 60 year old. He took multiple kind of supplements from Amway daily. We guess, his youngness is attributed to his good genetic, but likely Amway help too. He drinks red wine daily too.
Besides Amway, my house has Aloe-Vera and Bee Propolis from Forever Living(MLM). One of my sister in law recovered from the incurable SLE by drinking Aloe-Vera(REAL LIFE SAVING CASE).
I used facial cleaner from Forever Living for the last 20 years, no pimples on my face. Touch wood.
I like homemade bread so I have a bread maker from Amway after disappointed by the RM300-400 bread maker from Sen Heng.
Water filter in my kitchen is from Forever Living.
I used fuel booster from Cosway.
Many people complaint that products from MLM are expensive, but they deliver value to my family, at least.
Blue chips such as Maybank are expensive but its value is always there especially during the troublesome market time. To me, one high price MBB is better than few low price second or third liners.
I used to try many low price vit-c from pharmacy, it never works well. Wasting small money is fine to me, but suffering from sickness and antibiotics harm me.
Disclaimer : the above are all real experience and sharing, none of the example is fiction. I am not a member of any MLM but a small shareholders of Zhulian and Hai-O.
What is your thought?
Thks.
2013-09-23 11:07
hi kcchongnz, i have been reading your explanation to Tan KW on working capital. It is stated that working capital is obtained from LAST YEAR... Do this mean financial year end 2012 or year 2013 as your calculation is based on financial year end 2013. Hope you can clarify on this. TQVM
2014-02-18 21:47
Posted by freecooper > Feb 18, 2014 09:47 PM | Report Abuse
hi kcchongnz, i have been reading your explanation to Tan KW on working capital. It is stated that working capital is obtained from LAST YEAR... Do this mean financial year end 2012 or year 2013 as your calculation is based on financial year end 2013. Hope you can clarify on this. TQVM
Working capital is computed from the balance sheet. So there is no difficulty to use the latest quarterly report.
When I talk about "Last year", I probably use the latest annual balance sheet ended 31st March 2013.
2014-02-18 21:56
Post a Comment
Featured Posts
Open a Moomoo Account Today and Win an Apple iPad Air*!
MQ Trading Signals
Time
Signal
Duration
Type
2024-05-03 16:30:00
EMA 5
30 Mins
BUY
2024-05-03 16:30:00
ADX
10 Mins
BUY
2024-05-03 16:15:00
TURTLE SYSTEM 20
5 Mins
SELL
2024-05-03 16:10:00
ADX
10 Mins
SELL
2024-05-03 16:00:00
EMA 5
10 Mins
BUY
Apps
Top Articles
1
Nuclearinvestment
2
Good Articles to Share
3
4
AmInvest Research Reports
STRATEGY - Local Institutional Support Drive Upward Momentum
6
BFM Podcast
7
M+ Online Research Articles
8
Good Articles to Share
HSBC has no plans to dispose of further businesses, chairman says
#
Stock
Score
Daily Stocks
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Featured Advertisers / Partners
Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kcchongnz
Posted by Tan KW > Aug 3, 2013 08:17 PM | Report Abuse
Ok, I make the modifications
and i get Earnings Yield = 58,716,000/455,231,000 = 12.90%
instead of EY=58716/407967=14.4%
my EV - 455,231 is different with yours - 407967....
NOSH 202,000,000
Stock Price 2.72
Market Cap 549,440,000
Debt 13,417,000
Minority Interest 11,090,000
Preferred Shares 0
Cash 118,716,000
EV = 549,440,000 + 13,417,000 + 11,090,000 + 0 - 118,716,000 = 455,231,000
IN THE NON-CURRENT ASSETS, THERE IS THIS 'FINANCIAL ASSETS" WHICH I BELIEVE IS A CASH EQUIVALENT ASSETS,PROBABLY A DERIVATIVE CONTRACTS WHICH HAS A CASH VALUE IF LIQUIDATED. AGAIN THIS IS JUST MY GUESS. THERE IS ALSO THIS "INVESTMENT PROPERTIES" WHICH I NORMALLY LESS IT OFF FROM THE EV BECAUSE THIS IS NOT THE ORDINARY BUSINESS OF MANY NON-PROPERTY COMPANIES. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT ITS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND NOTES TO IT, HAIO HAS TAKEN THIS AS PART OF ITS "ORDINARY" BUSINESS. HENCE IT WOULD BE WRONG FOR ME TO LESS THIS ITEM OFF FROM THE EV. SO IN MY OPINION, IF YOU REALLY WANT TO BE PRECISE, THEN THE EV SHOULD BE 549,440 + 13417 + 11090 - 1478 - 118716 = 454270.
by the way, how you get No. of shares now is 202m ??
based on Financial note B11, Weighted average number of shares = 197,658,000 - i believe HAIO have some treasury shares and treasury shares have been excluded on B11...
THE PAR VALUE OF HAIO IS 50 SEN, SO THE NUMBER OF SHARES IS SHARE CAPITAL/0.5=101095/0.5=202M. YOU ARE RIGHT ALSO AS THERE ARE SOME TREASURY SHARES, AND HENCE THE ADJUSTED NUMBER OF SHARES. BUT THIS DOESN'T REALLY MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE TOO. MOREOVER THE TREASURY SHARES ARE NOT CANCELLED AND THEY STILL REMAIN THERE IN THE TREASURY. HOWEVER, YOU ARE RIGHT.
SO YOU SEE I TOO MADE SOME MISTAKES. I HAVE CORRECTED SOME OF MY MAJOR MISTAKES. GOOD THAT SOMEONE LIKE YOU CAN CORRECT ME.
2013-08-04 09:18