Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H
Stock Pick Challenge - [PUNCAK-WB] by OTB
PUNCAK-WB Stock Chart as at 16-08-2013
You should be realistic about your goals.
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter Lynch
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours.
The 8th stock I wish to select for second half of 2013 is PUNCAK-WB.
My trading plan (Puncak)
This stock (mother) is an up trending stock (daily, weekly and monthly).
The stock (mother) price was hitting new high (current) at 2.97 on 16/7/2013. The price goes through a correction and closed at 2.47 on 2/8/2013.
Major resistance is 2.82 and 2.97.
Major support is 2.27 and 2.09.
Target price = 5.40.
Margin of safety = 53%
Potential profit gain = 114%
Cut loss at 2.24 = 12.8%
Risk reward ratio at 2.24 cut loss = 1 : 10.3.
Recommendation from Kenanga = Target price for Puncak is 3.50, Puncak-WB is 3.00.Note:
My target price of 5.40 (Puncak) is based on my Technical Analysis calculation.
My target price of 5.28 (Puncak-WB) is based on my Technical Analysis calculation.
Technical Chart (Puncak).
A very nice up trending stock formed. There will be a good chance to hit our target price of 5.40 if the major resistance at 2.97 is crossed convincingly.
Conclusion
Recommend to buy (Puncak) at 2.52 and Puncak-WB at 1.70 on 2/8/2013. I specially recommend to buy Puncak-WB instead of mother share (Puncak).
Puncak IV Calculation
Total Net Profit Years 10/10
Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years 6/10
Total Dividend Payout Years 6/10
Total Positive free Cash flow Year 4/10
26/40
Growth %
10 Years Average Turn Over 1347835 137.51%
Current 4 Quarters 3201229
10 Years Average Net Profit 121741 88.54%
Current 4 Quarters 229536
| 2011 | 2012 | ETD | Growth | |
| Net Profit | 9,320 | 237,267 | 229,536 | -3.26% |
| EPS (Cent) | 2.27 | 58 | 55.83 | -3.74% |
| PE Ratio | 111.01 | 4.34 | 4.51 | -3.89% |
| ROE | 0.70% | 15.22% | 14.16% | -6.93% |
| NTA | 0.18 | 1.24 | 3.97 | 220.16% |
| Dividend | 0 | 5 | 5 | |
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | ||
| Net Profit | 9,320 | 237,267 | 229,536 | |
| Equity | 1,326,800 | 1,558,977 | 1,620,471 | |
| ROE | 0.70% | 15.22% | 14.16% |
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)
Average Return History -2.33%
3 yrs Return -10.79%
Method 1: Graham's
EPS 55.83
g, % 5.0
Y 7.0
IV= (EPS*(8.5+2g)*4.4)/Y 6.49
Current price 2.52
Margin of Safety 61.18%
Potential Profit Gain 157.62%
Method 2
ROE 14.16
Rr, % 8.0
NTA 3.97
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA 7.03
Current Price 2.52
Margin of Safety 61.15%
Potential Profit Gain
178.94%
Method 3
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
Discount rate 12.00%
EPS 0.56
Earning expected to grow (annually) 5.00
for the next (? Years) 3.0
before leveling off to an annual growth 3.00
before leveling off to an annual growth 3.00
Calculate Stock Value per share 6.76
Current price 2.52
Margin of Safety 62.72%
Potential gain 168.25%
Method 4
EPS 0.56
Total Equity 1620471
NOSH 411143
(22.5*EPS*BVPS)^0.5 7.04
Current Price 2.52
Margin Of Safety 64.19%
Potential Gain 179.22%
Warrant
Puncak-WB
Expiration date 2018
Exercise price 1.00
Price of Mother share (Puncak) 2.52
Intrinsic value of WB 1.52
Actual price of WB 1.70
Premium 7.14
Gearing 1.48
Conclusion
If the price of Puncak is 5.40, the price of Puncak-WB should be (5.40 - 1.00) = 4.40.
If it is trading at 20% premium, the price of Puncak-WB should be (4.40*1.2) = 5.28.
Potential gain = (5.28 - 1.70)/1.70*100 = 210%.
Thank you.
Ooi
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 24 of 24 comments
inwest, itchy finger. I normally don't do things like this. Don't ever follow me gambling like this.
2013-08-07 10:54
Because I just follow OTB's recommendation. Never look at their fundamentals myself yet.
2013-08-07 10:55
Intra-day trading gives a bot of excitement, which I do sometimes. But stakes only.
2013-08-07 10:58
In any and every uncertainty, there is abundant opportunities for those who see the opportunities and Puncak WB offers tremendous opportunities to those who are willing to invest in Puncak WB as there are two major game changers coming soon that will reward investors in Puncak WB tremendously...Just be focussed, hang onto Puncak WB shares and wait for the game changing events to happen and then ride the game changing events...
2013-08-08 21:16
Dear valued members,
You notice previous high for this stock is 1.83, when the price crossed 1.83, I will add position for my second purchase at 1.84. I will never buy if the price is < 1.70.
This is called money management using Technical Analysis.
Thank you.
Ooi
2013-08-13 12:01
The price of Puncak (mother) must cross 2.82 convincingly in order to stay super bullish.
2013-08-14 11:07
Inwest88,
You are too late, please wait for correction to enter. Puncak (mother) still has a major resistance at 2.97 to cross.
Thank you.
Ooi
2013-08-14 11:35
Mr Ooi,
What's ur opinion on Puncak -WB based on ur TA ? Possible of a further retracement on this ctr n the overall market ? Is it an opportunity to buy ?
2013-08-20 12:17
Posted by Metta > Aug 20, 2013 12:17 PM | Report Abuse
Mr Ooi,
What's ur opinion on Puncak -WB based on ur TA ? Possible of a further retracement on this ctr n the overall market ? Is it an opportunity to buy ?
Ans : I am waiting to buy, please be patience to wait. Thank you.
2013-08-20 12:20
After today big drop, KLSE is bearish now. Please trade cautiously. However, the KLCI is still above 200 days SMA. Thank you.
2013-08-20 16:56
Thanks Ooi, just let us know once the SMA 200 is broken. Today is even worse than the day of Fitch's down grade !
2013-08-20 16:58
I am trying to protect profit and capital, if the situation worsens, I will cut loss and get out. You have to make your own decision, no one can help you. Thank you.
2013-08-20 20:06
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kcchongnz
Heading for some positive outcomes for my Puncak Wb just bought this morning at 1.71.
2013-08-07 09:42