Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H
Stock Pick Challenge - [WTK] by OTB
WTK Stock Chart as at 16-08-2013
Dear valued members,
You should be realistic about your goals.
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter Lynch
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours.
The 7th stock I wish to select for second half of 2013 is WTK.
My trading plan
This stock is an up trending stock (daily, weekly and monthly).
The stock price was hitting new high (current) at 1.27 on 19/7/2013. The price goes through a correction and closed at 1.25 on 2/8/2013.
Major resistance is 1.27.
Major support is 1.02.
Target price = 2.16.
Margin of safety = 40%
Potential profit gain = 69%
Cut loss at 1.00 = 22%
Risk reward ratio at 1.00 cut loss = 1 : 3.14
Target price recommended by RHB is 1.80
Note:
My target price of 2.16 is based on my Technical Analysis calculation.
Technical Chart.
The stock price hits new high and the trend is very bullish. A Cup and Handle chart was formed with pivot line at 1.25. A Cup and Handle chart formation is always a bullish chart. The price had crossed the pivot line convincingly and hitting new high. The sky is the limit (slogan only) once 1.27 is crossed.
Conclusion
Recommend to buy at 1.25 on 2/8/2013.
Thank you.
Ooi
Dear valued members,
Please note that I put the growth rate of 15% since the log price had appreciated 20% to 30% since the beginning of 2013.
WTK IV Calculation
Total Net Profit Years 9/10
Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years 10/10
Total Dividend Payout Years 10/10
Total Positive free Cash flow Year 6/10
Growth%
10 Years Average Turn Over 672015
Latest 4 quarters 738893 9.95%
10 Years Average Net Profit 55544
Latest 4 quarters 51370 -7.51%
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Growth% | |
| EPS (Cent) | 15.8 | 10.28 | 11.73 | 14.11% |
| PER | 8.16 | 12.55 | 11 | 12.36% |
| ROE | 6 | 3.66 | 4.12 | 12.57% |
| NTA | 2.63 | 2.81 | 2.83 | 0.71% |
| Dividend | 8.5 | 5.6 | ||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | ||
| Net Profit | 68636 | 44670 | 51370 | |
| Equity | 1143227 | 1220240 | 1245702 | |
| ROE | 6.00% | 3.66% | 4.12% |
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)
Average Return History 2.81%
3 yrs Return 2.52%
Method 1
EPS 0.12
g 15.00
Y 7.0
IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y 2.29
Current price 1.29
Margin of Safety 43.56%
Potential gain 77.18%
Method 2
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
Discount rate 12.00%
EPS 0.12
Earning expected to grow (annually) 15.0
for the next (? Years) 3.0
before leveling off to an annual growth 3.00
Calculate Stock Value per share 1.87
Current price 1.29
Margin of Safety 31.02%
Potential gain 44.96%
Method 3
ROE 4.12%
Rr 8.00%
NTA 2.83
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA 1.46
Current Price 1.29
Margin of Safety 11.49%
Potential gain 12.98%
Method 4
(22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5
EPS 0.12
Total equity 1245702
Number of shares 438014
(22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 = 2.74
Current price 1.29
Margin of Safety 52.91%
Potential gain 112.38%
Thank you.
Ooi
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 37 of 38 comments
I buy my second batch at 1.36 after the price crossed 1.35 (new high).
Thank you.
2013-08-19 16:51
Tomorrow...is chop goh mei....HG is eager to swallow contra players.....aiyoyo !!!
2013-08-20 15:34
4.15pm.....market will start rebound.....20 points b4 closing...altantuya has informed free think !!!hehehhe
2013-08-20 15:43
lol. james dont depend on mr ooi. after all its your investment, your gain or your loss. Learn from your mistake/success
2013-08-20 23:42
James,
You should already have own plan before you even start buying anything, when to take profit, when to cut loss, when to ave up / down etc...others do not know your risk tolerance & your financial situation...
2013-08-20 23:45
Posted by Jameslee > Aug 20, 2013 11:34 PM | Report Abuse
Mr OTB, do you think can still buy in to average down?
Ans : Watch the market for a few days, many uncertainty. Stay out until we can see a better picture. To be honest, I will not bet if I am not sure. When I enter trade, I must win. Thank you.
2013-08-20 23:47
Posted by jjoker > Aug 20, 2013 11:45 PM | Report Abuse
James,
You should already have own plan before you even start buying anything, when to take profit, when to cut loss, when to ave up / down etc...others do not know your risk tolerance & your financial situation...
Ans : Yes. You must have a good trading plan. Not sure, stay out. Thank you.
2013-08-20 23:50
Very painful lesson. I thought I made fr GOB can put it in here......now loss everything. Hope tomorrow is better day.
2013-08-20 23:59
Posted by Jameslee > Aug 20, 2013 11:55 PM | Report Abuse
Very disappointed with the buy. This my second buy and got burn.......
Ans : I cannot understand, WTK dropped 8 cents today ... get burn ? Please do not play contra. I will continue to hold this stock, nothing wrong and the chart is still good. Don't you think so ? 1.30 is still very cheap. Thank you.
2013-08-21 00:05
Really ? Thanks....needed the assurance. I bought at 1.36 actually. I'm not playing contra but I have limited funds. Anyway very happy you responded.
2013-08-21 00:09
very much depend on india & japan market .but anyhow this counter not bad,
cheapest among the 4 pure timber stocks........
2013-08-21 00:18
Dear Mr Ooi: Can you update a little on WTK (bot @1.36) and GOB (bot @0.91)?
Many thanks
2013-09-19 09:53
Hi, Mr Ooi,u really a good "Shi fu"!LBS-WA moving too fast, can I still buy tomorrow at 0.8++, or hapseng-Wa? Pantech-Wa, tks for ur advice!hopefully this time able to follow u good night!
2013-09-19 21:52
The price went up too fast, I will suggest to buy on weakness. Thank you.
2013-09-19 21:54
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Good recommendation.Need to recommend more stock.
2013-08-06 12:54