THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
AAX & KSL: Compare and contrast their Earnings and Future Prospect (Calvin Tan)
calvintaneng
Publish date: Wed, 25 May 2016, 10:38 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,832
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Hi Guys/Gals, Boys & Girls, Ladies & Gentlemen,
I just went through the Latest Result of AAX & I am horrified. So I looked at KSL again. AAX is a real hot air balloon now full of happy hot air riders totally oblivious to the danger ahead. So I took comfort in the safety of KSL on terra firma (solid ground).
Let's Review the Results of AAX again
A cursory glance will reveal that AAX has made an impressive Rm179 mil last quarter or about 4.3 cents.
A closer look shows that it only made Rm57 mil or 1.37 cents (after deducting one time forex gain). So it has a P/E of 7.2. Really?
Is it true that Annualized AAX has a P/E of 7.2 or 14% Annual Growth?
This is what Calvin Tan Research Discovered!!
Receivables have jumped from Rm282 millions to Rm349 millions - an increase of Rm67 millions!!
So minus the Rm57 millions reported profit from Rm67 millions increase in receivables AAX is actually in the red.
One of the Valuable Lessons my Johor Sifu Taught me is this: RECEIVABLES IS NOT CASH. NOTHING IS CASH UNTIL IT IS ACTUALLY RECEIVED & DEPOSITED AS CASH IN THE BANK.
SEE How Trusting Receivables As CASH sent many to Holland in IFCA! (Calvin's warnings fell on deft ears!)
Another warning sign is the CASH POSTION OF AAX Has GONE DOWN WHILE REVENUE INCREASED!
NET CASH POSITION HAS ACTUALLY DROPPED FROM RM252 MILLIONS TO ONLY RM206 MILLIONS ( A DROP OF RM46 MILLIONS!) Any accountant worth their salt can calculate & SEE.
Actually these are still Ok. What is the greatest danger to AAX then?
GO & READ THE LATEST QUARTER REPORT AGAIN VERY VERY CAREFULLY!!
32a. Capital commitments outstanding not provided for in the interim financial report:
Aircraft purchase: Rm103.8 BILLIONS
WOW! Aircraft purchase commitment is a mind boggling RM103 BILLIONS!
This means that If AAX can earn NET PROFIT OF RM1 BILLION EACH YEAR IT WILL TAKE 103 YEARS TO PAY OFF ALL DEBT.
Will your Great Great Great Grand Children SEE real profit one hundred over years later?
And SEE these statements
The future minimum lease payments and sublease receipts under non-cancellable operating leases are as follows:-
Future minimum lease payments: RM8.5 BILLIONS.
As soon as a New Car leaves the ShowRoom it starts depreciating by the year, by the month, by the weak and it depreciates day by day.
The same applies to AAX's aircraft worth Rm103 Billions. How much will they be worth 1 year, 5 year and 10 years down the road. Will AAX be able to generate enough profit to pay for these depreciating planes. Now with fierce competition from SCOOT In Australia & TigerAir in North Asia?
So AAX is an unsustainable business model. With such HUGE COST and so little profit.
Will AAX go the way of Hubline?
SEE
I warned and warned people to get out of Hubline when it was still traded at 4 cents. Not heeding my warning they are now stuck at only 1 cent in the sinking, rotting ship of hubline
Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 15, 2015 03:52 PM | Report Abuse 
X
Calvin's Warnings On Hubline
1) Hubline has Huge Borrowings - Over RM200 Millions
2) It has only RM10 millions in cash
3) Its NTA is 13 cents.
A closer examination shows that it has 2 pieces of properties in East Malaysia. One is vacant. And another most probably its ship yard. Total Net Asset Value About RM15 Millions
What are the other NTA? If seaworthy ships. How much? If not, what will be its scrap value?
There is a great possibility that Hubline might fall into Insolvency in spite of its projected High NTA.
MaeMode gone bankrupt with High NTA.
High NTA is only Worth So Much If Things Can Be Sold in Market. Old Machinery & Old Ships will be of little worth.
No wonder Directors & Insiders Are All Jumping Ship
Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 16, 2015 12:21 PM | Report Abuse
Hubline
Hug Line?
Still hugging the same line at 4 cents?
Aiyoyo! Looking at AAX results made me dizzy. Now look at KSL. KSL is on terra firma (solid ground). Of course on solid ground is safe but dull. Isn't it more exciting to fly kite, fly inside hot air balloon or climb Mt Everest?
KSL has now fallen to multi year low. Its business is getting more mature & stronger. More than 10% of KSL revenue comes from its MALL rental in Muar & JB. KSL has also got KSL CITY & HOTEL RESORT in Booming Iskandar.
Its Business Model is getting better and better as KSL might spin off a Reit like KPJ created Alaqar Reit with stable income.
Yes, in these very uncertain times WE WANT CERTAINTY & STABILITY FOREMOST. So get out of Hot Air Balloon & Stand Firm on Terra Firma
Regards,
Calvin,
From Singapore
Below are the Last Quarterly Reports & Price Charts of AAX & KSL
AIRASIA X BERHAD (5238)
Company Website
Initial Public Offering Document
Annual Report
Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2016
| AIRASIA X BERHAD |
| Financial Year End | 31 Dec 2016 |
| Quarter | 1 Qtr |
| Quarterly report for the financial period ended | 31 Mar 2016 |
| The figures | have not been audited |
- Default Currency
- Other Currency
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
|
|
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
|
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
|
||||
|
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING QUARTER |
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING PERIOD |
||
|
31 Mar 2016
|
31 Mar 2015
|
31 Mar 2016
|
31 Mar 2015
|
||
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
||
| 1 | Revenue |
970,674
|
775,374
|
970,674
|
775,374
|
| 2 | Profit/(loss) before tax |
218,517
|
-117,278
|
218,517
|
-117,278
|
| 3 | Profit/(loss) for the period |
179,489
|
-125,916
|
179,489
|
-125,916
|
| 4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent |
179,489
|
-125,916
|
179,489
|
-125,916
|
| 5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) |
4.30
|
-5.30
|
4.30
|
-5.30
|
| 6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
|
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
|
||||
| 7 | Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$) |
0.2000
|
0.1500
|
||
Last quarter profit was 6.55 sen for KSL now at bargain value of Rm1.16
Annualized it's a spectacular 22% Growth or P/E 4.42 (The Most Profitable Property Stock in all of Bursa now)
At Rm1.16 it is selling at nice discount of 43% discount to NTA of Rm2.02
With such solid prospect and margin of safety everyone can and do sleep soundly standing firmly on KSL
Good night everybody
ZZZZzzzzz,,,,.......
KSL HOLDINGS BERHAD [S] (5038)
Company Website
Annual Report
General Meetings
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
|
|
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
|
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
|
||||
|
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING QUARTER |
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING PERIOD |
||
|
31 Dec 2015
|
31 Dec 2014
|
31 Dec 2015
|
31 Dec 2014
|
||
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
||
| 1 | Revenue |
95,482
|
166,581
|
686,108
|
801,026
|
| 2 | Profit/(loss) before tax |
75,921
|
155,489
|
342,373
|
431,800
|
| 3 | Profit/(loss) for the period |
65,247
|
131,956
|
267,640
|
342,317
|
| 4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent |
65,247
|
131,956
|
267,640
|
342,317
|
| 5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) |
6.55
|
16.68
|
27.28
|
43.85
|
| 6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) |
0.00
|
5.00
|
0.00
|
5.00
|
|
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
|
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
|
||||
| 7 | Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$) |
2.0200
|
2.0300
|
||
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 33 of 33 comments
Icon8888, don't tell us you don't know the basic differences between trade receivables for property developers & AIRLINES???
You may say that are outstanding due by travelling agencies, blah blah blah.
Why not you can enlighten us how can an Airline company has so much of trade receivables?
2016-05-26 02:36
Sometimes I saw brave people doing things differently. Those enjoying the music will throw stones over those making noise, thouth the noise is to warn the music is going to stop and those throwing stones eventually knows about the music is in fact going to stop.
2016-05-26 02:43
The real airline revolution is in cutting off agents.
That alone has given airlines billions.
2016-05-26 03:03
I disagree with Calvin's stance that AAX net profit should be negated by receivables
Please explain to me why I am wrong
KLCI King
150 posts
Posted by KLCI King > May 26, 2016 02:43 AM | Report Abuse
Sometimes I saw brave people doing things differently. Those enjoying the music will throw stones over those making noise, thouth the noise is to warn the music is going to stop and those throwing stones eventually knows about the music is in fact going to stop.
2016-05-26 03:11
I know Calvin very well...he like to talk nonsense against the wave...out of 100 rubbish article he write maybe 1 or 2 he hut jackpot...so he will shout non stop...his mentality just like thise buying 4D mentality, everyday buy 4D and hopes one day can get the prize....hahahaha...poor life Calvin
2016-05-26 07:10
The whole 103m aircraft lease rental was from charging IAAX and PAAX... the debts arising by right should be put into... due from associate.. and due from JV... but think that would paint even a worst picture..
Also... this means making money from IAAX PAAX which are loss making... and have negative equity..
2016-05-26 08:17
Please answer the following question and provide your rationale:
Property value...depreciate or appreciate?
Aircraft Value..... appreciate or depreciate?
KSL share value will appreciate or depreciate?
AAX value will appreciate or depreciate?
2016-05-26 08:28
Both fields are difference. we can't compare AAX with KSL (airline vs property). Its sound like you compare your nose with your leg.
2016-05-26 08:48
Good morning everybody,
The i3 Forum is a place to exchange ideas. To share similar or opposing investment opinions. To find the very best investments. To avoid pitfalls.
From here we learn how to be the next successful investor like Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger, Phil Fisher, Peter Lynch, John Neff, Marc Faber, George Soros, Donald Trumph, Robert Kiyosaki & Neoh Soon Kean, Fong Shiling, Tan Teng Boo & others..
I often brainstorm with my Johor Sifu & Johor Buddies in early days. Learn to embrace what is good and lasting. Know how to escape from deceptions and traps.
The word "Forum" was first given as a Wide Space in a Roman times
Look up forum in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.
Forum (plural forums or fora) may refer to:
Forum (Roman), open public space within a Roman city
Roman Forum, most famous example
Forum (legal), designated space for public expression in the United States
Internet forum, discussion board on the Internet
Public forum debate, or Pofo, a type of debate.
So we are here to find investment truths that will stand the test of time.
May every one grow in wisdom & wealth in i3 Investors' Forum
Have a nice and prosperous day.
Regards,
Calvin Tan
Singapore
2016-05-26 08:55
calvin, it is better to separate this article into two. one talk about AAX and another one KSL. different industry cannot compare. it is like you compare a man with a woman ...
2016-05-26 08:55
Calvin, pls do not patronise us by educating us the purpose of forum !
If u feel there is any meat to your article, pls answer Icon8888 questions above.
Otherwise just throw in the towel.
2016-05-26 09:19
mango2 Calvin, pls do not patronise us by educating us the purpose of forum !
If u feel there is any meat to your article, pls answer Icon8888 questions above.
Otherwise just throw in the towel.
26/05/2016 09:19
Mango2?
If you read carefully - The Main Point of Concern is not receivables but AAX's HUGE COLOSSAL DEBT OF OVER RM103 BILLIONS! The receivables of AAX is not disclosed just like its brief mention of Rm103 Bil debt.
As for KSL it is clear to all that KSL's been selling properties - so its receivables are from Panel Banks like Maybank, Public Bank, RHB Bank and others which customers took loans from. So Banks are releasing progressive payments in stages of completed construction works.
Question is, can there be a possibility that Maybank or Public Bank go bankrupt?
2016-05-26 09:32
Ppl have the right to response to any concern raise by u, be it main point of concern or not, for the sake of discussion.
Anywhere no one mentioned that the receiveables issue is the main point, it is only your own erroneous view, so pls do not patronise us again as though we cannot read!
Do it a few more time u would have ppl thinking negatively that Singaporean are generally a bunch of arrogant and patronising lot. U don't want to see that do u? or that is a fact already and u are just doing what ordinary Singaporean do, that is being snobbish and arrogant !
By the way u have not answer other issue raised here which is that comparison of AAX and KSL is not appropriate as they are from totally different industry. What is your opinion on that?
"Mango2?" -- u have any problem with that name?
2016-05-26 11:07
how about Jayatiasa ? Wah Seong ? PM Corp ? Mulpha ? Maybulk ? Prestar ? etc etc etc
are their receivables backed by Maybank and Public Bank ?
=========
calvintaneng
As for KSL it is clear to all that KSL's been selling properties - so its receivables are from Panel Banks like Maybank, Public Bank, RHB Bank and others which customers took loans from. So Banks are releasing progressive payments in stages of completed construction works.
Question is, can there be a possibility that Maybank or Public Bank go bankrupt?
26/05/2016 09:32
2016-05-26 12:56
Hahaha
Uncle Calvin promoting the stock which I had made lots of money and have already sold off in November 2014.
2016-05-26 15:48
It is not easy when discussing (debating) for parties involved, but it is good for readers like me. Brainstorming is always good, but one first must know the real truth & do the research & study rather just blindly believe anything discussed, or else one will be diverted to holland airport & yet still feel happy & enjoy the scene there.
2016-05-26 16:46
KLCI King is funny, I like this:
do the research & study rather just blindly believe anything discussed, or else one will be diverted to holland airport & yet still feel happy & enjoy the scene there.
2016-05-26 16:58
moneySIFU KLCI King is funny, I like this:
do the research & study rather just blindly believe anything discussed, or else one will be diverted to holland airport & yet still feel happy & enjoy the scene there.
26/05/2016 16:58
Diverted to holland airport & yet still feel happy & enjoy the scene there?
I think quite pitiful.
Last time I saw people who gone mad like those in Tanjung Rambutan in Taiping or Woodbridge in Singapore laughing all alone by themselves without any reason.
Those who lost everything in Patimas, Maemode, SAAG, Megan Media & Transmile might be acting like them.
So are those trapped in hubline, hibiscus and other high flying balloon stocks which they entered at peak prices and then holding tight all the way down.
2016-05-26 17:25
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stockmanmy
why airlines got receivables one?
I thought they only have moneys received in advance.
all receivables got nothing to do with passengers.
2016-05-25 22:51