THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS CRASH OF 1997 to 1998: Stock Prices TTB of ICapBiz Waiting For? (Calvin)
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sun, 29 May 2016, 08:52 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,803
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Hi Guys/Gals, Boys & Girls, Ladies & Gentlemen,
They said that a broken clock will still show the right time twice a day. Tan Teng Boo of ICapBiz has been waiting for more than 5 years for The Stock Market To Crash. Crash to what prices? Will the all time low of 261 points for KLSE Index be repeated?
Crisis Prices of 1997 to 1998?
Hmmm?
Let's take a look at them:
Below Are The List of Prices in 1997 year high & 1998 year low. It might shock you! No stock is spared. Defensive stocks, speculative stocks, goreng stocks & all fell into the bottomless pit!!
Here you go:
......................................................1997 YEAR HIGH.........1998 YEAR LOW (Taken From SPG 2007 Edition by Dynaquest)
1) AJINOMOTO...............................Rm5.27.......................Rm1.13...(79% OFF) Aji now in bull run.
2) APOLLO FOOD..........................Rm5,44........................0.74 sen (87% OFF) Wow! Apollo supposed to be recession proof?
3) CI HOLDING.............................Rm13,40.......................Rm1.41 (89.5% OFF)
4) CARLSBERG BREWERY..........Rm7.90.........................Rm3.15 (61% OFF)
5) COSWAY CORP.......................Rm5.63.........................56 sen (90% OFF). Cosway later taken private by BJ Corp
6) CYCLE & CARRIAGE..............Rm18.20.......................Rm2.67 (86% OFF)
7) DUTCH LADY..........................Rm5.00.........................Rm1.70 (66% OFF) Dutch Lady fell to Rm1.70? Great Value Buy then.
8) F & N......................................Rm11.94.......................Rm2.39 (80% OFF)
9) GOLDIS BHD.........................Rm1.67.........................52 sen (69% OFF)
10) GUINNESS..........................Rm6.80.........................Rm2.33 (66% OFF)
11) HLI......................................Rm8.76.........................Rm1.74 (81% OFF) If you can SEE dotcom craze 2 years later. Great buy!
12) I BERHAD..........................Rm9.10.........................61 sen (94% OFF) Lost 94% in one year? What a super duper! Scary.
13) LATITUDE TREE................Rm4.91.........................Rm1.09 (78% OFF)
14) LION DIVERSIFIED............Rm2.42.........................19 sen (93% OFF)
15) MFLOUR MILL....................Rm4.46........................90 sen (80% OFF)
16) MWE..................................Rm2.78........................28 sen (90% OFF)
17) NESTLE............................Rm20.40.......................Rm11.70 (43% OFF ) In Crisis like 1997 Losing only 43% considered good.
18) ORIENTAL HLD................Rm9.75.........................Rm1.85 (82% OFF) Honda Car Sales Hit badly?
19) PANASONIC.....................Rm13.35......................Rm5.03 (63% OFF) Blue Chip also crashed?
20) PPB.................................Rm3.15........................Rm1.13 (65% OFF)
21) PROTON HLD.................Rm17.20.......................Rm1.88 (90% OFF) DRB took Proton private later.
22) TAN CHONG...................Rm1.39.........................30 sen (79% OFF)
23) UMW...............................Rm8.70.........................54 sen (94% OFF) Wow! Toyota did worst than Proton & Nissan?
(Note: In year 2004 I bought UMW at Rm2.40. It went as high as Rm16.00 in year 2013 & corrected sharply now. Cyclicals like UMW did badly in crisis. It excels in performance during boom years.)
24) YEE LEE........................Rm5.79.........................Rm1.04 (83% OFF)
25) YHS..............................Rm7.25.........................Rm1.53 (80% OFF) Why lah? People no money drink tap water?
26) AJIYA...........................Rm5.42..........................44 sen (92% IFF) Wow! Ajiya lowest price was only 44 cents! Amazing!
27) DAIBOCHI....................Rm3.13..........................27 sen (92% OFF). Irrational collapse.
28) DRB.............................Rm9.80..........................62 sen (94% OFF) Whoa! Blue Chip turned to penny stock? So painful?
29) ESSO...........................Rm7.20..........................Rm2.05 (78% OFF) No job. So no money for petrol?
30) FACBIND.....................Rm5.50...........................17 sen (97% OFF) 97% OFF? Cry also no tear.
31) JAYA TIASA.................Rm15.20........................Rm2.21 (86% OFF) Note El Nino pushed JTiasa to Rm9.20 in year 1999.
32) KECK SENG................Rm4.00.........................Rm1.10 (73% OFF) High asset also not spared!
33) KIAN JOO....................Rm3.92.........................77 sen (81%) Ha! Kianjoo also fell to penny stock
34) KOSSAN......................Rm1.54.........................20 sen (88% OFF) Kossan only 20 cents? Mr Market sold like crazy.
35) LAFARGE.....................Rm1.88.........................25 sen (87% OFF) This one I bought at 66 cts. Later turned Blue Chip.
36) PERSTIMA..................Rm4.54..........................12 sen (98% OFF) Wow! Lost 98%? Going bankrupt or Best Buy?
37) SCIENTEX..................Rm7.20...........................Rm1.14 (85% OFF)
38) TASEK........................Rm7.40...........................Rm2.50 (67% OFF)
39) TGUAN.......................97 sen............................. 25 sen (75% OFF)
40) GAMUDA...................Rm5.50.............................57 sen (90% OFF)
41) IJM............................Rm6.24.............................53 sen ( 92% OFF)
42) YTL CORP.................Rm6.90.............................1.50 (79% OFF)
43) AMWAY ....................Rm10.40............................2.32 (78% OFF)
44) BJ CORP..................Rm12.47............................86 sen (94% OFF)
45) GENTING.................Rm18.00............................Rm6.00 (67% OFF)
46) GKENT.....................Rm4.40...............................31 sen (93% OFF)
47) HAPSENG...............Rm3.38................................Rm1.75 (49% OFF)
48) HUBLINE.................Rm18.00................................75 sen (96% OFF) What a goner! Hubline now only 1 sen. Scary!
49) KFC.........................Rm10.21...............................Rm1.18 (89% OFF) Epic Lost? No money? Eat roti canai kosong only?
50) KPJ Hospital............Rm5.51.................................Rm1.43 (74% OFF) No money. All go to GH?
51) KFima......................Rm3.96..................................25 sen (94% OFF) Kfima real bargain I bought at 35 cents.
52) MAS........................Rm4.78.................................Rm1.44 (70% OFF) Mana Ada System? Later high debt cause delisting.
53) PERAK CORP.........Rm16.72.................................70 sen (96% OFF) Super Crash. Super Value I bought at 60 cents.
54) PETDAGAGANG.....Rm3.40...................................89 sen (74% OFF) TTB spotted this. Later up Rm31.82 in yr 2013
55) SIME.......................Rm10.40................................Rm1.45 (87% OFF) Blue Chip also crashed 87%.
56) STAR.......................Rm2.93.................................68 sen (77% OFF) Advertising cut back. Many business failed.
57) TELEKOM................Rm15.30...............................Rm4.30 (72% OFF)
58) TENANG..................Rm10.48...............................Rm1.60 (85% OFF)
59) MAYBANK ...............Rm10.00...............................Rm1.82 (82% OFF)
Note: Every trading day Govt Fund supported these 3 Index linked stocks called TTM (Telekom, Tenaga & Maybank) to no avail
60) PUBLIC BANK.......... Rm3.21....................................80 sen (76% OFF) Public Bank was The Bargain of The Century!
During the Depth of The Asian Financial Crisis when KLSE was at 261 points Dr Neoh Soon Kean came out with a headline in Malay Mail
"THE BARGAIN OF THE CENTURY!!
Yes! If YOU have CASH At Market Bottom YOU WILL BE PREPARED FOR COMINIG BARGAINS!!!
Further Note:
Both During the Asian Financial Crisis Years of 1997/8 & Lehman Brothers' Debacle of 2007/8 OIL PALM PRICE RISE DUE TO EL NINO PHENOMENON SAVED THE DAY!
Wait for Calvin Tan Research Next Post
"THE UNFOLDING DRAMA OF RISING CPO PRICES"
So please stay tuned for more.
Regards
Calvin
Singapore
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 18 of 18 comments
Then Calvin why you still heavily promoting assets based stocks and properties in JB? You naughty, not listening to Mr Tan
2016-05-29 21:51
calvin,the funny thing is why are u still promoting stocks to the i3 members here?like buying ksl,insas,mui and etc.......based on your article above,u said all stocks will not be spared including the defensive blue chips stock,so you are implying dont buy any stock and wait for market crash?arent you contradicting yourself?
2016-05-29 22:23
hpcp Then Calvin why you still heavily promoting assets based stocks and properties in JB? You naughty, not listening to Mr Tan
29/05/2016 21:51
iamsoonoob calvin,the funny thing is why are u still promoting stocks to the i3 members here?like buying ksl,insas,mui and etc.......based on your article above,u said all stocks will not be spared including the defensive blue chips stock,so you are implying dont buy any stock and wait for market crash?arent you contradicting yourself?
29/05/2016 22:23
Calvin answers:
Good question.
Actually like PureBull I am bearish. Yet why do I promote certain stocks? These are the reasons:
1) We refer to the past to learn to avoid its mistakes. So in this case we should not be fully invested but keep more bullets so that if and when Markets do crash then we can take advantage to buy cheaper bargains.
2) The times now are not the same as before. Ben Bernanke has introduced Money Printing by QE 1 , QE 2 & QE 3. So there is a debauchery of all paper currencies. So keeping to pure cash is also not safe.
3) During Crisis Companies still act to take Certain Undervalue Stocks private by paying decent prices like OPUS, YTL Cement, MTD Infrar, Halim, Petaling Garden, Golden Hope Plantation, I & P, Pelangi Bhd and others. So we can still make monies safely. Recently, Super Enterprize, Kulim & TMakmur gave excellent upside of 30% to 200% to take them private. The exception is Kbunai where management is cheating shareholders.
4) As future is unknown We Should Still Diversify Investments into Shares, Bonds, Properties & some precious metals. And also keep a good Cash Buffer.
Good luck
2016-05-29 22:41
The mental problem seem to be with us. We have some warning signs lately, when certain stocks suddenly fall off the cliff. That by itself, for those who bought heavily at recent high prices without initating `trailing stop-loss' would have suffered serious losses. Just think of it, what will the scenario be if the major stockholders collectively decide to cash in their chips. Is this starting to happen? Calvin still continues to promote stocks because as a savvy investor, I believe he has certain safeguards in place for his own stocks. As for Iskandar landed properties, being the self appointed Honorary Ambassador, he has no choice but to continue to promote it to the bitter end? Not for his own landed properties he may elect to `follow the tide' don't you think?
2016-05-29 23:59
After the crisis I made more money with properties investment,the fittest survive better.
2016-05-30 00:31
Crisis is nature's way to reshuffle the deck
I think it is very democratic
But to be honest, it does not happen as often as people fear.
So just go out and enjoy.
2016-05-30 00:37
at that time u still got money? maybe already average stocks until broke already
2016-05-30 02:55
100 times cry wolf
Maybe 1 time real wof
Are we supposed to stop play the other 99 times too?
2016-05-30 03:21
Good morning,
These are some of the more defensive investments on hindsight:
1) Although many businesses suffered huge setback and losses certain ones like YTL Power still generate consistent profit throughout the crisis.
2) Coinciding with the Collapse of Stock Market CPO Prices went in the opposite direction due to El Nino. So Plantation Stocks stood out as a good performing Ones in times of Crisis.
3) A number of my friends bought foreign currencies. As a result they got richer due to ringgit crash.
4) A good number of businessmen migrated to Australia in the early years of 1990s. So they escaped the crisis.
5) One Guy from Kajang took his Rm300 thousand profits from the 1993 KLSE Bull Run & bought a piece of main road frontage land in Jln Reko, Kajang. He started an electrical shop selling appliances. So he preserved his capital. This is also one reason why Calvin advocate buying LANDED HOUSES IN ISKANDAR Since they are still very cheap. And rental yield will cover bank loan.
Will post this article when ready
"THE UNFOLDING DRAMA OF RISING CPO PRICES"
Going to Booming Iskandar now!
Have a nice day
Calvin fr Spore
2016-05-30 06:56
LOL...one guy from singapore spent most of his time in i3 everyday post rubbish article and today he still poor as 20 years ago...LOL
2016-05-30 07:43
that was when interest rate shot up over 10%,now only 3.25% market cannot crash like that
2016-05-30 09:39
That's the reason I only invested 30% of my cash in stock market so far. All others park at the loan account to reduce loan interest. Very much look forward for grand cheap sale, if that happens.
2016-05-31 10:59
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CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Lukesharewalker
Already six years wrong. One of these year he will get it right. Guru? Or any average Joe could do the same
2016-05-29 20:58