THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Calvin replies to Uncle KYY's Article on Why Jaks shoot up (Please post comment with proper language
calvintaneng
Publish date: Tue, 04 Apr 2017, 10:14 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,803
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
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Author: Koon Yew Yin | Latest post: Tue, 4 Apr 2017, 09:07 AM
An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin. |
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Why JAKS is shooting up so fast? Koon Yew Yin
Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Tue, 4 Apr 2017, 09:01 AM
The current issue of Focus Malaysia carries a full page article on page 18 about Serba Dinamik to encourage readers to buy the shares. My purpose of writing this article is to show readers the comparison of Serba Dinamik with JAKS so that they can make a better informed decision. You can see the comparison as follows:
Total issued shares: Serba Dinamik 1,334 million comparing JAKS 484 million
Current price : Rm 1.65 Rm 1.64
Market Capitalization: Rm 2,201 million Rm 794 million
Owns 9.8 MW in East Kalimantan owns 40% of 1,200 MW in Vietnam
Plans to construct 3 hydropower plant in Sabah with a total 29.1 MW
JAKS’ market cap is about one third of Serba Dinamik but it owns a few hundred times more MW of power.
That is why JAKS shot up 16 sen today with 10.2 million shares traded. Out of the 10.2 million shares traded, I only bought 2.9 million shares.
JAKS has gone up from Rm 1.00 to Rm 1.64 in the last 3 months as shown on the chart below.
Many people have asked me to explain what is MW of electricity, how much of coal is required to produce 1 Mega Watt of electricity and how big is JAKS’ 1,200 MW power plant?
1 mega watt = 1,000 kilo watt and the current price for 1 kilo watt hour in Malaysia is about 50 sen. For example to light a florescence tube of 40 watt for 10 hour the cost of electricity will be 400/1000 X 50 sen = 20 sen.
Jaks’s 1,200 MW can produce 1,200 X 1,000 = 1,200,000 kilo watt X 50 sen = Rm 600,000 per hour. Assuming 50% efficiency the power plant can still produce Rm 300,000 worth of electricity per hour.
One ton of coal costing about US$ 50 can produce about 2 MW hour of electricity. JAKS’ 1,200 MW will consume 600 ton of coal per hour costing about US$ 30,000.
The above photo is Malakoff’s Tanjong Bin 1,000 MW power plant. Notice the ship delivering coal and the coal yard is more than twice of a football field. JAKS’ power plant is 1,200 MW which is larger than the one above.
After reading the above, do you still want to buy Serba Dinamik?
Like most investors, a very close friend just told me that he had sold his JAKS shares to take profit because it shot up too fast and he said that he will buy back during correction. What happens if JAKS continues to go up higher?
Most people who have sold will not buy back at a higher price because of shame. Just like one critic, Calvintaneng who told me that is better to plant durians that to buy JAKS. My advice to all my critics is to overcome their fear of share to improve, otherwise they will remain as poor as before. What is the use of writing nonsense? If they are so smart, they should write about the shares they have bought and also show their track records.
I am obliged to tell you that my wife Tan Kit Pheng and I are the controlling shareholders of JAKS. My wife has 39 million and I have 88 million shares. Please bear in mind that we do not need you to buy to support the share price. But if you decide to buy, you are buying at your own risk.
Calvin Tan is happy to reply to Uncle KYY's comments:
I first posted in Year 2013 September in i3 forum. And over these past 3 years I have learnt a lot from all Sifus in i3 Forum
From KCChongNz in Value Investing
From OTB with momentum investing
From Ayam Tua for being the most prolific promoter of penny stocks
From Duit being a very good charismatic guy (or quite a busybody fella)
From Icon8888 being a popular promoter of hot stocks
From Bonescythe picking out some gems from time to time
From Steven Yong @ Paperplane who crossover successfully from investlah to i3 forum
From Great Stockraider my faithful friend who reposted my articles in investlah (I got banned there)
From Conman like MikeKong55 who led a whole gang astray in Regain Choco Passenger pirated ship
From CPTeh with his interesting sharing. At best you can earn a cup of teh following him
And above all From Our Modern Day Robin Hood called Koon Yew Yin (with all due respect)
I must confess I am still learning from everybody.
Now I have picked over 100 stocks. Out of them 14 have hit jackpots of 100% to 200% gain. And among them is Jaks which I bought for 40 cts.
On December 16th, 2014 I called for a buy on Jaks
See in Jaks Forum if you will
Posted by calvintaneng > Dec 16, 2014 03:00 PM | Report Abuse 
X
Whoa!
Top boss bought at 44 cents and above, millions of them. Anything below 40 cents is a bargain!
So don't wait or else Jaks jump Jump JUMP Up And Away!
I am happy to see after 18 months Jaks jumped to Rm1.20 (Up 200%) and I think Jaks being a cyclical stock has been fully priced in. And so it is time to cash out and buy other undervalue shares overlooked by the market just like Jaks was on December 16th 2014
For your information I had bought Jaks 10 years ago at 60 cts. I sold off Jaks when it doubled in price to Rm1.20 then. This round in year 2014 I am surprised that Jaks fell back to a low of 40 cts. I bought Jaks again because of water theme play as Jaks got 6 feet diameter pipes for water transfer.
Never in my imagination it was Uncle KYY who pushed up Jaks to Rm1.20 & now come out to promote this CYCLICAL STOCK. Note: I also bought Prestar at 70 cts & sold it over Rm1.00 in I think year 2007. And I also bought back Prestar at 46 cts (see https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/92608.jsp
Prestar or Pre Star (buy it before it turns into a Star) made me 100% when it crossed 92 cts. Last round Prestar Insiders were holding & even bought more of Prestar around Rm1.00 (to their sorrow later) So now this round Insiders, knowing that Prestar is a cyclical stock, are selling and selling. This is what Sifu Peter Lynch taught us (WE MUST BUY CYCLICALS AT ITS BOTTOM WHEN P/E IS AT ITS HIGHEST AND SELL CYCLICALS AT PEAK WHEN P/E IS AT ITS LOWEST).
Is Jaks worth much more now because of purported power plants? And all its projected future earnings?
Calvin does not think so. These are my reasons:
1) A power plant takes long gestation (from its inception to production and distribution takes time). Look at YTL Power (My Johor Sifu favourite. Inspite of Yeoh Tiong Lay cornered the warrants. My Johor Sifu holds Big Chunks of YTL-Power warrant) Perfomance is only so so. However, the redeeming grace is the dividend he got from YTL-POWER mother share. So over more than 10 years already YTL-Power is only an average company.
Another example is MFCB (Megah First Corp Bhd or fondly called "My Father Comes Back") Again this is a steady above average growth company with power plants.
That's why I said it is better to plant durian trees than buying Jaks at the lofty price of over Rm1.40 now. Ha in Year 2006/7 after disposing Jaks for 100% profit my Remisier notified me that I still got some Jaks I forgot to sell. I immediately sold off all at Rm1.40 then.
At Rm1.40 I think all the "future projected profits" of Jaks are already priced in. For these reasons
Jaks at 40 cts with NAV/NTA of Rm1.15 has Big Margin of safety. Jaks at Rm1.40 with NTA of Rm1.15 has no margin of safety.
Jaks last quarter result showed a loss. Jaks has high expenditure outlay and it won't see much profits until power plants are up. For now Jaks is even asking for more monies by private placements.
So to chase Jaks at such high price is no longer investing but speculating.
Now I have checked with the cost in Vietnam. Petrol cost is around Rm3.00 per liter (about 20% more expensive than Malaysia). So is natural gas which has subsidy in Malaysia (not Vietnam). I am not sure about coal.
So all the projected "profits" from Jaks Vietnam power plants are just "projections" From past record in i3 forum Uncle KYY also projected the promising business of Xinquan, the powerplant of Mudajaya in India & the glowing report about JTiasa.
To all who followed:
Xinquan crashed 90% from over Rm1.00 to less than 10 cts
JTiasa crashed 60% from Rm2.60 to less than Rm1.10
Mudajaya crashed 70% from Rm2.60 to less than Rm1.00
All these have burnt many fellow i3 forumers.
And now this new fangled peril of Jaks at peak prices!
Let me explain Jaks & Uncle KYY position in the scenario now.
There are 3 kinds of Ships powered by 3 sources of energy
1) SHIP powered By Human Strength
In the time of the Vikings Ships were powered by Human Strength. You can still see these boats during "dragon boat" race during New Year time.
Many pairs of hand row the boat with utmost strength to the finishing line.
Once the power of human strength ceases the boat is idle. So are many pump & dump stocks. Once syndicates are finished the stocks like IFCA, Sumatech, VSolar, Sersol & XOX are left abandoned with sorchai trapped kaw kaw!
The evidence is all too visible here. Today Uncle KYY is dumping Canone and buying more Jaks. So is the sell down in Latitude? Just like transferring boat rowers from Canone & Latitude boats to Jaks? Stocks of Canone, Latitude & others are sold down to support Jaks?
This is a clear lesson for all to see Stock Manipulation right before our eyes!!
2) SHIP powered by WIND
In ancient times SHIPS have sails unfurled to catch the passing wind. Today, with Logistics & IT lots of shares are powering up. Some even go LIMIT UP to the delight of many. After all we are in a Bull Run?
So far so good. Until the change of the Wind Direction!
Then it will be LIMIT DOWN again. Or at best it will drift lower and lower.
So my dear fellow beloved i3Forumers.
Learn to buy while price is cheap. Resist the temptation to chase. And take some profit to protect your gains.
Like the Cyclical Wind these high flying stocks are good only while the fad or trend last. Once over those who are caught at peak prices will be trapped.
3) SHIPS POWERED BY INTERNAL COMBUSTION
These are Stocks which have Internal Strength. There is lots and lots of fuel stored up! This SHIP can sail without the need for human power (boat rowers, cheer leaders, paid advertising to media to boost prices).
THIS SHIP can sail day and night. Can sail against wind and storms of life. It generates profitable growth year after year. Its business has high margin of safety. It grows and grows like an oceanliner sailing round the world.
Of couse in a Bull Market everything, good & even bad shares, syndicated shares, fundamental shares and greater fool shares also go up in a rotational play.
But at the end of the very end game - THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF A SHARE WILL ULTIMATELY SURFACE
As it has been said, "OVER A SHORT TIME THE SHARE MARKET IS A VOTING MACHINE: BUT OVER A LONGER TERM THE STOCK MARKET TURNS INTO A WEIGHING MACHINE"
Best regards to Uncle KYY & all i3 Forumers
Your friend and faithful critic,
Calvin Tan
Singapore
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Discussions
8 people like this. Showing 50 of 284 comments
Nowadays no serve wagyu beef but serve female buffaloes?
Oldman did improve a bit over the years...higher budget alloted for marketing n promotion
2017-04-06 18:31
Bro probability u very hamsup...quietly attended the seminar on 30 mac...i dont think u went there waiting for tips to buy Jaks...99% for swee swee female buffaloes
2017-04-06 18:33
KYY is boring without Bursa. :-) KYY needs Bursa. Why Kyy doesnot dabble in oversea like USA stockmarket, the biggest market in the world??? Kyy can buy Apple, Google, Amazon, IPP - Solar, Wind, Nuclear etc. Endless money making for Kyy. He has plenty of money to do that. Mystery of kyy. Food for thought. We need kyy to win big in US market for Malaysia honour.
2017-04-06 21:15
Don listen to Mammy loh....investment is a serious business...it is not game loh....!!
If u invest Not to lose is very important loh....!!
U must understand...when u invest...it is not u alone invest...it is u, ur wife,and ur children also loh....!!
Ur whole family depended on u loh....!!
Their dally food, accomodation, education and well being all depended on u mah....!!
U need to be responsible when invest & do not gamble away loh...!!
If u fail...ur whole family will fail too loh...!!
So u cannot make too many silly mistake mah...!!
Thats why u need value & fundamental investment with margin of safety & not gut feeling gambling as advocated by mammy loh....!!
Btw...Jaks...is just a rubbish...overvalue counter..with no margin of safety promoted by conman KYY and side kick mammy loh....!!
2017-04-06 22:41
The mistake of xingquan will be repeated here.
Kcchongnz did not help him this time. He is doom
2017-04-07 00:23
A friend ask me how to become millionaire. I told him become billionaire first and play stocks goreng
2017-04-07 00:24
I have been here one year...Never seen Raider make money on one single trade.
But got the nerve to defame, to spread fake news of a notable personality , a public figure who can buy 30% of Jaks.
If that is not track record, what is?
2017-04-07 01:05
Hmmmm.. Calvin this round i support your opinion. If everytime you can explain in this way and not shout conman stock from counter to another counter or run run run before too late, i think will be better. Bye good night and have a nice day ahead.
2017-04-07 01:18
Lots of heavyweights sifus here, like CharlesT, stockRaider, Calvin, Paper plane, Probability, Icon888 Vs Stockmanmy and his master Kyy. I have being enlightened by all of them. TQ. Particularly the soundest advice was given by stockRaider who said this below →
.......
Stockraider →→Don listen to Mammy loh....investment is a serious business...it is not game loh....!!
If u invest Not to lose is very important loh....!!
U must understand...when u invest...it is not u alone invest...it is u, ur wife,and ur children also loh....!!
Ur whole family depended on u loh....!!
Their dally food, accomodation, education and well being all depended on u mah....!!
U need to be responsible when invest & do not gamble away loh...!!
If u fail...ur whole family will fail too loh...!!
So u cannot make too many silly mistake mah...!!
Thats why u need value & fundamental investment with margin of safety & not gut feeling gambling as advocated by mammy loh....!!
Btw...Jaks...is just a rubbish...overvalue counter..with no margin of safety promoted by conman KYY and side kick mammy loh....!!
2017-04-07 07:36
Dont tell me this thread is not in top article while oldman's post is top 1....i die die dont believe loh
2017-04-07 07:38
Mayb i3 got artificial intelligence..which can sort the top articles driven by money power...
2017-04-07 07:39
This only shows that Kyy has lots of followers. That is why his article. That is why his article is on the top.
2017-04-07 10:23
Calvin...please dont show this video to the old lion...
its PG rated (parental guidance) ...since no parents now...he needs Child guidance (CG) to watch this...consoling him .."grandpa dont be afraid..its just for those who behave like wild animals....you are human right grandpa? "
2017-04-08 12:59
It looks like i3t ppl going wrong direction instead of sharing investment ideal now going again someone you do not agreed with.
This is what we call SOUR GRAPE
2017-04-08 13:10
Posted by probability > Apr 8, 2017 12:59 PM | Report Abuse
Calvin...please dont show this video to the old lion...
its PG rated (parental guidance) ...since no parents now...he needs Child guidance (CG) to watch this...consoling him .."grandpa dont be afraid..its just for those who behave like wild animals....you are human right grandpa? "
Ok thks, I will delete it
2017-04-08 13:14
Calvin,
If like that KYY big time maniac promotion on Jaks also need child guidance ah ??
2017-04-08 13:17
Hahaha Stockraider,
I see you have been debating with the fake accountant Stockmanmy over Ace STOCKS.
Yes, Jaks is now too overvalue. All stubbord fella will suffer losses when Uncle Koon run out of bullets to support it.
Or the nightmare for them if KYY starts dumping.
2017-04-08 13:21
Yah...KYY will run out soon...wants he cross 33% need GO loh....he quite close loh....!!
Despite Kyy great support...jaks falling loh....!!
Something is wrong loh....!!
2017-04-08 13:36
Stockraider, is it absolute to have GO for Jaka once 33% is crossed?
How come company like Dutaland crossed 50% still no offer?
Is it up to individual whether he chooses to give an offer or not to ?
2017-04-08 13:47
Duta...owner use the creeping method....every yr buy not more than 2% loh......!!
But creeping....method got controversy too....my suggestion is u just complain to SC...everytime it cross 33% and 50% when no GO...!!
Let the authority decide to compel them to do GO loh...!!
2017-04-08 14:15
Haha, Just like HHHGroup, when KYY started dumping, the share experienced a sharp drop. Perhaps, he would do the same for JAKS in May.
09/04/2017 10:32
2017-04-09 10:43
This idiot learns very fast. So fast copy cat other people's message.
Before this he condemed jaks like no tomorrrow
Posted by CharlesT > Apr 9, 2017 10:37 AM | Report Abuse
My 2 cents bet...excellent q result in may n corporate games
2017-04-09 10:44
Smart sporean but little kuku..check when did i first post this comment....everybody here knew oldman's secret recipe...lol
2017-04-09 10:46
If you already know he will be dumping in May, so you must be clever enough to dump before April ends. But when May comes and price continue to go up, will you be stupid enough to buy back?
Posted by Sky Soo > Apr 9, 2017 10:43 AM | Report Abuse
Haha, Just like HHHGroup, when KYY started dumping, the share experienced a sharp drop. Perhaps, he would do the same for JAKS in May.
09/04/2017 10:32
2017-04-09 10:48
You are such big idiot. Envy other people trying to make money. Condemn people without knowing the facts. Idiot
Posted by CharlesT > Apr 9, 2017 10:49 AM | Report Abuse
Wah big secret only koon n kuku knew....scary loh
2017-04-09 10:57
Some jokers spreading fake news that oldman is fighting with boss to control...
While i think more likely they r kissing together...prediction only...not fake news
2017-04-09 11:00
Koon learnt his painful experience in xinquan for not kissing china boss...he learnt...
2017-04-09 11:01
CharlesT said → →Koon learnt his painful experience in xinquan for not kissing china boss...he learnt...
. ...........................
me: A big player like kyy must asks or persuades the biggest shareholder of jaks to play along Kyy's game plan, or else when kyy pumps the price, biggest shareholder Of Jaks just dump to kyy. Who will suffer? of course kyy suffers.
Only when the biggest shareholder of jakes agrees to play according to kyy plan or according to both of their plan (Kyy & biggest shareholder plan), only then kyy or both of them can play pump & after that dump to billis.
2017-04-09 12:33
I predicted much earlier in JAKS
1) 90% probability Boss makan lunch with Koon
2) 95% probability corporate games mari soon
He learnt from Xinquan case
2017-04-09 12:40
My take is, 50: 50....that oldman will win, why leh ??
Positive side he will win;
Oldman cost is cheap around Rm 1.00
Oldman pakat with owner...he gets informal inside info loh..!!
Oldman good at promotion loh....!
Placement at Rm 1.36 if successful will support KYY quest loh...!!
The owner hold less share than kyy...thus very unlikely he will dumped his official share holding loh....!!
Negative side he will lose;
This is a lemon stock with no margin of safety
The project they are talking about is an oversea long term project.
Gestation period about 5 yrs loh....!!
KYY too greedy....hold too much jaks at 30%...very difficult for him to escape loh....!!
This do not take into account share that kyy and the owner kept under proxy loh...!!
Kyy only can officially support another 3% more loh
Kyy could run out ammunition loh.....!!
The owner may betray kyy or vice versa....thats mean the followers and naive will at their mercy loh....!!
Raider advice....better sell loh....don be greedy and get con loh...!!
2017-04-09 12:41
lol, maybe later they propose bonus issue(buy two free one, or buy mother get free warrant......
(sunday blah blah)
Posted by stockraider > Apr 9, 2017 12:41 PM | Report Abuse
My take is, 50: 50....that oldman will win, why leh ??
Positive side he will win;
Oldman cost is cheap around Rm 1.00
Oldman pakat with owner...he gets informal inside info loh..!!
Oldman good at promotion loh....!
Placement at Rm 1.36 if successful will support KYY quest loh...!!
The owner hold less share than kyy...thus very unlikely he will dumped his official share holding loh....!!
2017-04-09 21:36
CharlesT→ predicted much earlier in JAKS
1) 90% probability Boss makan lunch with Koon
2) 95% probability corporate games mari soon
.....-..................:.......
I agree with CharlesT
So foward looking this CharlesT
Good Predictions
2017-04-11 10:43
Next will be waiting for his exit plan....certainly not 10-20% gain n cabut....trust me
2017-04-11 10:48
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probability
i heard got some female buffaloes arranged at the seminar for mating attraction.....then very fast buffaloes procreate loh...new buffaloes keep coming...and keep coming...
2017-04-06 18:15