THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
HOW TO ESCAPE A FINANCIAL TSUNAMI by Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Tue, 08 Aug 2017, 01:47 PM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
As We Know By Now There Is Such A Phenomena Called Tsunami. 230,000 people died in the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami & Year 2011 another 20,000 got killed by the Japanese Tsunami.
A Financial Meltdown is likened to A Tsunami in its Similarities – Swift, Sweeping & Destructive With Little Time For Escape.
So We Need To Prepare Well A Head of Time.
There Are 7 Ways To Prepare For A Financial Crisis Just Like 7 Ways Of Protection Against A Future Tsunami
1) BUILD HIGH SEA WALL ALONG THE COAST
In certain part of Japan Huge Walls Are Built To Prevent The Next Tsunami from crashing in. So we must build up Walls against the onslaught against another Financial Crisis. Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia Have Built Up A Huge Wall of Foreign Currency RESERVES Against any future onslaught by Currency Speculators
2) RUN TO HIGHER GROUND
At the sound of siren – leave everything and Run To Hill or Higher Ground.
Park Money where there is higher level of safety. Put money in safest instrument like bonds, Safe & Sound Banks Like Public Bank in Malaysia. Also park money in safe countries like Switzerland and Singapore.
3) Stay Inland or Live As Far Away From The Sea As Possible
Stay away from all kinds of investments with exposure to danger if you can. Just hold on to the safety of diversified Cash in Different Currencies. Return OF capital is now far more important than return ON capital.
So stay safe.
4) BUILD SOLID BUILDINGS WITH STRONG FOUNDATIONS.
If you really need to live and work by the shores as a calling like Fishermen, Sea Food Manufacturing or all things related to the Sea then Invest More On A Stronger Building. When Tsunami hits Your Building Will Stand Tall & Be A Place of Refuge While All Other Rickety Buildings Are Swept Clean Away Into The Sea.
In Investments seek out Rock Solid Companies with High NTA (Net Tangible Assets). These Rock Solid Stocks or Businesses With High CASH RESERVES Will Withstand any Financial Crisis.
5) GO ABROAD TO SAFER COUNTRIES
This is What Some Japanese Are Doing. They Have Moved To Taman Molek, bought up entire block of Condo & called it
“LITTLE JAPAN” Here in Iskandar – Free From Earthquake, Typhoon or Tsunami The Happy People Will Never Again See Anymore Tsunami.
So in Times of The Greatest Danger or Crisis– Human & Capital Flight Is Really The Last Resort. That’s how Millions of Chinese left for Foreign Shores Due To The Great Famine in China. CASH Flee Corrupt Nations With Crashing Econominies.
6) STAY AT SEA FOR SAFETY – HEDGE FUND IS THE EQUIVALENT.
Tsunami means “Harbour Waves”. The Waves Are Generated By Earthquakes in Deep Sea. These Waves gather momentum as its speed towards the shorelines. So Ships Out in Open Seas away from the shores are generally safe.
Hedge funds have the ability to buy or short sell shares or anything. One example: During the Asian Financial Crisis Car Sales Vaporized in Malaysia. And Car Prices Collapsed. One Importer has a consignment of New German cars in a bonded Ware House. (A bonded warehouse is a place to keep imported cars where Duty Has Not Been Paid & The Car is not yet officially registered.)
Seeing there is no demand for his New German Cars he decided to sell them to another country not in crisis. To his glad surprise when he bought those German cars the Ringgit was still strong & when he sold the Ringgit has collapsed against the German Deutsche Mark. So he made a surprise windfall from currency difference.
Hedge Funds Have This Ability To Make Money in all markets.
George Soros Quantum Fund Motto
——-“STAYING AHEAD OF THE CURVE”——- Is An Appropriate Idiom.
7) GO AIRBORNE
Those on planes, in hot air balloons or up in helicopters
These not only escape the Tsunami but is able to see and take photos/videos of the ongoing Tsunami. Some even provide vital warnings & rescue works.
These Are Successful Investors Who Are Already Well Prepared Ahead of Time. During The Great Depression of 1929 – 1939, outstanding Tycoons, Churches & Philanthropist gave out free food & soup to the masses.
Wise Investors & Wise Governments Will Be A Help Some Day To Future Ignoramus Who Live In Danger of Another Real or Financial Tsunami.
But why look for hand outs? Be Wise & Prepare Yourselves Now.
A NEW FINANCIAL TSUNAMI IS COMING. IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
SO BE PREPARED!
Calvin further comments dated August 8th 2017
THESE ARE THE STOCKS WHICH OFFER SOME PROTECTIONS
1) UTLITY STOCKS WHICH ARE NECESSITIES
PBA. Water is a basic necessity of life. No matter how bad times are you still need to bathe & drink water. All might cut down on luxuries and non essential wants. But without water for one week we die. So PBA is ROCK SOLID
2) STOCKS WITH NET ASSETS & NET CASH POSITION
OPCOM has 20 SEN CASH. Job Awards of Rm300 millions will garner another 30 profits. This was the only one stock I kept in year 2007/8 during the LEHMAN BROTHERS' CRISIS.
At its bottom of 30 sen Calvin & Johor Buddies bought only this one Tsunami Shaltered Stock. Totally insulated & isolated from crisis. With Job Awards of Rm359 millions OPCOM later gave us a nice 22.5 sen CASH PAY OUT PLUS Another 11 sen later - making it a very juicy 33.5 sen.
So those Johor Buddies who bought OPCOM at 30 sen have escaped the Crisis of 2007/8. Not only that, all have received 33,5.
That means that after deducting Cost of 30 sen purchase price - Now holding OPCOM FREE FOR LIFE. Plus 3.5 sen CASH Payout.
Now Calvin & Johor Buddies are buying even more OPCOM Shares below 60 Sen
3) STOCKS WITH NET ASSETS FAR MORE IN VALUE THEN DEBTS
a) Mui Bhd has Very High Value Assets of Over Rm1.00 if all Assets are Sold and minus from all liabilities.
So at 16 sen Mui Bhd is selling at a NET DISCOUNT TO CASH (REMEMBER ASSETS & CASH ARE THE SAME) ASSETS ARE CASH IN SOLIDIFICATION. ICE IS THE SOLIDIFICATION OF WATER.
b) BJ CORP. This one has debt. But the small debt is DWARFED BY ITS COLOSSAL ASSETS . A WHOLE MOUNTAIN CALLED BUKIT TINGGI IS OWNED BY BJ CORP
c) DUTALAND
This one has NET CASH. IMMENSE NET ASSETS OF OVER RM1 BILLIONS.
d) BPURI
This one has fallen to all time low compared to its NET NET ASSETS. A candidate for Walter Schloss' portfolio if he's still alive today. Mui Bhd, Bj Corp, Dutaland, Opcom & PBA are all Walter Schloss' choice.
e) MRCB/DRB And All other GOVT LINKED STOCKS
These will be supported. During the Terrible Asian Financial Crisis - 3 Stocks survived & didn't go bankrupt -
TTM. TTM? What is it?
T is Tenaga National. Govt won't let it go bankrupt
T is Telekom (Ha! Govt also won't let it go bankrupt
M is MayBank (The pride of Malaysia) Govt will save this even 49 Banks disappeared and shrunk into 6 TIER ONE BANK
And so you can expect support for MRCB as its core is owned by EPF
f) EXPORT STOCKS
With Collapse of Ringgit Malaysia is now Super Competitive.
Currently Calvin like JCY for its dividend
g) ALL OIL PALM STOCKS
These ones survived the ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997/98 & again survived the SUBPRIME CRISIS of 2007/8
Not only Palm OIl survived. Those who owned Palm Oil Stocks PROSPERED IMMENSELY.
Peter Lim (Remisier King of Singapore invested S$10 millions in WILMAR. 4 Years after the 1997 Crisis he sold Wilmar for a cool S$1.5 Billions. And Palm Oil made Robert Kuok a Billionaire (40 times over!) He has Rm40 Billions and the richest man in Malaysia.
THAT'S IT
TSUNAMI SHELTERED STOCKS
What are you waiting for.
ESCAPE FOR THY LIFE NOW!!!
Or if you stay on in hot air hot hot popular balloon stocks of the day you might end up holding another Sumatech, XOX, VSolar or IFCA
IFCA?
If
Fall
C (hokkien for die)
Arggh!!!
See how IFCA Crashed from Rm1.87 to below 50 sen
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 50 of 91 comments
LOL...stupid u. Another 4 months u sure bottom 10....haha...lousy pick at the beginning sure holland like u now...naked in front of us stil wanna act nothing? Diu
2017-08-08 19:38
Didn't you hear the statement..
HE WHO LAUGH LAST LAUGH THE LOUDEST.
SO WAIT AND ALL WILL SEE.
FOR NOW LET'S RECOUNT
1. MADE. MORE THAN 100% FROM DRB PRICE RISE AT 92 SEN TO RM1.87
2. MADE 200% FROM DRB C30 As PRICE ROSE FROM 12 SEN TO 36 SEN
3. MADE ANOTHER 100% FROM MAJULAH PERAK WHEN PRICE ROSE FROM 31.5 SEN TO 60 SEN
SO?
JUST THESE 3 GARNERED 400% ALREADY!!
2017-08-08 21:12
I made a lot of money from KPS and BJ Corp when Badawi was PM so not a bad PM. NajXX should be worst PM if GE 13 result show. If now hold GE doubt he can gain more more votes with weak stock market and GST.
Posted by apolloang > Aug 8, 2017 03:47 PM | Report Abuse
the worst pm in msia history is bodohwi
2017-08-08 21:21
last time where got limit down.....even dow jones can crash 30% in a single day in 1987. now US got circuit breakers.
2017-08-08 21:42
wif the introduction of 100 share,if got crash u think so easy to buy or sell? when crash the untraded stocks mostly done 100 share to make it down a lot,how to sell like that?
2017-08-08 21:45
as of my fren mr lee now in heaven,he lost until bank lelong his house and he have to go to old folks home to stay until he passed away.he lost so much that time cos he bought too many counters and hard for him to sell,also that time he know many of the bank managers which keep delaying the margin call.he kena forced sell all his stocks at the lowest,and some becomes zero.at that time also many kena PN17
2017-08-08 21:49
Sell,
How come so coincidental?
You made a lot from Bj Corp and Kps?
Wow? These were the 2 ten baggar stocks then
KPS ROSE FROM 39.5 SEN TO RM3.94
And BJ CORP JUMPED FROM 12 SEN TO OVER RM1.50
BOTH JOHOR SIFU AND I MADE SO MUCH FROM THESE 2 COUNTERS.
VERY MEMORABLE
2017-08-08 21:50
apolloang you remind me those days when bought in transmile with limit down
2017-08-08 21:52
Gushan,
Without limit up or limit down will be suicidal for some.
Last time during the great depression when stocks were in great confusion someone keyed in a buy for i think, only ten cents.
Then margin calls force selling. At it was sell at market at any price. So a stock last traded at Us$10.00 could be dumped at only 10 sen
It was total madness.
Someone actually keyed in 10 sen and got it matched at the end of the day.
So limit down is a healthy safe guard.
Malaysian Govt created Danaharta to prevent fire sale of assets during Asian Financial Crisis. It saved some banks
2017-08-08 21:57
Aiya Calvin Boss you miss one golden place to make money in a financial crisis.. FBMKLCI put warrants mah...
2017-08-08 22:00
Gushan,
This was the mistake of Mr N of Batu Pahat
He made some good monies during the boom years of 1993.
Then his profits evaporised in year 1994.
And still playing the market he lost rm1 million of his capital. By year 1995 Mr. N was restless because of losing Rm1 millions.
I asked him how much he still got left? He said he had rm5 millions and after losing rm1 million he still got rm4 millions.
He could not take it. So he wanted to recover his losses. I told him to forget it as he still got Rm4 millions and could have retired comfotably in Batu Pahat then.
But he wouldn't listen.
It was too much for him to bear. He could only take it up but cannot put it down. That is, accept victory and cannot bear defeat.
In the very end he lost his other Rm4 millions.
As if Satan caught hold of him and he could not escape until his passion totally consumed him in total loss!
2017-08-08 22:06
Unicorn,
I seldom go into speculation. I have never bought toto empat ekor or lottery for the last 40 years.
I did buy some cpo futures but felt uncomfortable. So i sold it for a few thousand ringgit profit.
2017-08-08 22:10
johnyeoyeo, 1 of my rich old fren who is now worth around 100 mil in assets also kena 30,000 of tranmil at 10.00.the stock code I still remember 7000,hahaha
2017-08-08 22:13
calvintaneng wrote "Only 5% of my capital is in the stock market for now."
Over the long term: the stock market delivers the highest return, then bonds and then FDs.
Do you think properties returns beat the stock market returns over the long term?
I think you can increase your asset allocation to stocks a lot more than your 5%, without incurring more risk and with a potential for higher returns.
Do you know that out EPF's asset allocation is 25% to shares or equity and the rest are mainly in fixed income securities. A small amount in properties.
2017-08-08 22:15
Johnyeoyeo,
I bought some company vehicles from metroplex group (now no more).
The md told me about transmile when it was rm2.20. Since i didn't understand its business i didn't buy any.
To my surprise transmile shot past rm10 to a high of Rn15.00. I thought i missed a gold mine?
Then i passed by Subang Airport one afternoon. And i saw transmile planes idle on the tarmac unused. How to make money if no business?
Then transmile collapsed. It was expected.
So i did not make any on its upward surge. Neither was i caught in its death spiral.
2017-08-08 22:17
Calvin Boss.. My humble opinion on IFCA crash la..
Actually IFCA fell from 1.80 in May '15 was because all companies already installed GST system with IFCA by April '15.
So naturally IFCA's sales will start to fall and people knew it so they sold the shares.
And IFCA continued to crash from 1.00 to 0.500 in August was because the stock market crash due to crash in oil price.
With the above two factors, IFCA crashed severely between May to Aug' 15.
2017-08-08 22:22
I lost more than 1 mil to 4d alone,just a hobby syok syok also lost more than 1 mil for the past 30 years
2017-08-08 22:22
Ok Sultan Apollo,
From your doomed friend who bought many counters and hard for him to sell is a good lesson.
On its own is ok if he has holding power.
What he did wrong was leverage. Margin calle killed him.
That's why margin is a dangerous thing if used too much and at the wrong time. Even at right time it should be used moderately.
So guys, avoid too much greed.
2017-08-08 22:22
Or avoid overmuch greed in any form of investment. Try to diversify capital.
2017-08-08 22:23
it's a painful sharing for many....but pls keep sharing. I'm too new to know about these financial disaster, and i'm really thankful to be able to hear some of these stories.
More.....tq =)
2017-08-08 22:29
Calvin's language is more Indian than the origin of genuine Indian! Likewise, he may be unable to comprehend on what he had written!
2017-08-09 09:49
He will disappear from bursa after the financial tsunami. ....Bankrupt completely judging from the stock's he recommended!
2017-08-09 09:52
always buy what you can afford ( to lose ). never speculate like a gambler baccarat banker or player sailang everything at one go. never never borrow from ah long
2017-08-09 10:36
haha!
mioxi sounds like some name of antibiotic?
How to go bankrupt if Calvin only invested 5% of capital in stocks?
mioxi is too muddle headed
2017-08-09 10:47
mioxi where are you?
you fell down in some hot air balloon stocks and gone case already?
wuhuhu!
Found a gold mine?
Stick with it.
Someday somewhere you might step on a land mine!
2017-08-11 10:41
Calvin,
Raider think ur allocation of 5% to equity is too small & it does not commensurate with your stature, skill, knowledge and experience mah.
Yes there are risk but if u practice margin of safety, long term it is no risk loh....!!
In 2011 to 2013 raider exposure to equity was very high 150%, which is risky loh...but this is how u make big monies in a big way & short time loh, if u have done a through homework and u are confident with ur findings, u bet big when there is huge margin of safety loh...!!
At that time raider agreement, is that if u r willing to gear up a few properties borrowing 90%, what wrong with borrowing 50% on equity when there are alots of opportunity leh ?
Today the above arguement, no longer hold water bcos things had changed loh...!! But the concept of putting more when u have confidence & done good homework is the right approach loh....!!
Of course today raider exposure is much less, and raider will never increase the exposure to that high level anymore, even if raider is greedy, but certainly not 5% which is on the extremely low side loh...!!
Alot of great conservative learned investors recommend the following formula for equity exposure;
100 minus your age = the % of exposure loh...!!
So if say u r age 40.
Then 100 -40 = max 60% equity exposure loh...!!
Good Luck.
2017-08-12 13:47
Good afternoon Great Raider.
A BIG THANK YOU.
Yes, under ordinary circumstances 5% capital in equities is far too little.
In 1997 I actually invested more than 40% into the stock market. But after being warned by Alfred Ong my Remisier Friend I got out of the market.
And I got back into the market in year 2005 after reading Ben Graham's book on THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR. I also subscribed to the Monthly Digest of Grand Master Sifu Dr Neoh Soon Kean.
Next year I met my Johor Sifu who was the avid disciple of Dr. Neoh. From then I get to know Value Investing.
But in year 1999 I visited Usa for a holiday. There i saw the seeds of the subprime bubble being sown.
Everywhere i saw flyers and handbills asking people to borrow money. No income no job also can borrow. Blacklisted and bankrupt also can borrow if you buy any house.
So at the back of my mind this puzzling and reckless lending behaviour haunts me and i really don't know how it will all end.
Then in year 2004/5 George Soros came out to warn that in 3 years time the sunprime loans will turn bad and might turn into a financial crisis.
As it turned out Lehman Brothers, an investment bank, over 100 years gone bankrupt and triggered the Great Recession of 2007/8.
By the timely warning of George Soros i escaped another Stock Market Crash.
So what happened. In year 2007 i bought a house from Jb highcourt auction, then 2 more in year 2008. The next 2 years of 2009/10 i didn't buy any as bidding at high court got fierce.
But in year 2011 i saw property boom in Iskandar took off in a big way. So i bought and bought until i got no more cash. I leveraged it by borrowing from many banks until they told me to stop. So i think just as you invest 150% in the stock market, i too, invested in landed houses as much as 150%.
Together with my other investors we bought almost 30 properties. Some new ones but mostly from jb high court auctions.
What is the yield so far.
I bought one property for Rm79k in year 2011. I sold it this year at Rm250k.
So i got 36% capital gain at 36% yearly for 6 years. And rent was Rm700 per month. That's another 10.6%
So in total the yield is a decent 46.6% yearly for those passive years.
I still got over 20 properties to sell slowly. As landed property still going up I will dispose more later.
So although I know stock market can give very good reward in upcycle I think I have done the same in property cycle.
2017-08-12 14:52
No income no job also can borrow later turned into the NiNJA Loan later. Lehman Brothers, Bear Stern, Merrill Lynch, Fanny Mae, Freddie Mac, Countrywide & Washington Mutual & others gone bankrupt one by one later
2017-08-12 15:02
Calvin,
Yes if u know where ur expertise lies & can be utilised well, thats is the best loh..!!
Warren Buffet says stick to ur core competence when making investment, this is a very good risk managemest advice loh..!!
2017-08-12 15:12
nekosan,
kaya is for all i3 forum friends.
for calvin?
got enough lah.
See
GODLINESS WITH CONTENTMENT IS GREAT GAIN. FOR WE BROUGHT NOTHING INTO THIS WORLD AND IT IS CERTAIN WE CAN CARRY NOTHING OUT.
see www.chick.com
2017-08-12 17:12
Calvin Boss, some "good" news that suit your story...
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2106216/hundreds-try-withdraw-savings-after-rumours-start-run-chinese
http://www.forexrepository.com/news/state-bank-of-india-shares-tumble-as-bad-loans-persist.htm
Northern Rock then Lehman Bros. Anyone?
2017-08-12 17:17
Why B Puri, Texchem, BJ Corp, etc drop so much? Not margin call?
Posted by nekosan > Aug 12, 2017 04:57 PM | Report Abuse
make so much? but you said waiting to be kaya?
2017-08-12 17:20
Posted by cheated > Aug 12, 2017 05:20 PM | Report Abuse
Why B Puri, Texchem, BJ Corp, etc drop so much? Not margin call?
ans: calvin stock are contraian beaten down low expectation stock, normally margin players will avoid, thus no margin call loh...!!
2017-08-12 17:26
GREAT STOCKRAIDER IS CORRECT
NO MARGIN CALLS FOR ALL CALVIN'S STOCK WITH GREAT MARGIN OF SAFETY.
TO AVOID MARGIN CALL.
BUT STOCK WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY.
FOUND GOLD MINES?
BETTER STICK WITH THEM
BECAUSE SOMEDAY, SOMEWHERE YOU MIGHT STEP ON A LANDMINE!
2017-08-18 08:59
PLEASE STAY SAFE.
HE WHO PUNT LOOSELY WILL FINALLY LOSE OUT!!
DON'T GAMBLE BUT LEARN TO INVEST WISELY
2017-08-18 09:14
Market Crashing?
BETTER RUN TO SAFETY OF TSUNAMI SHELTERED STOCKS NOW NOW NOW!!!
2017-10-01 23:18
Vincent Tan loves to bull-shit & he has influenced his family to do so too, now his influence has reached out to one of his distant relatives.
That guy trumpet BJCorp everyday in i3.
2017-10-01 23:19
Opcom was the only stock I kept in year 2007/8 all throughout the crisis years and escaped
Then prospered
So now is the repeat again
A whopping Rm21.6 Billions fiberisation project
2019-10-02 03:32
>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > Oct 2, 2019 3:32 AM | Report Abuse
Opcom was the only stock I kept in year 2007/8 all throughout the crisis years and escaped
Then prospered
So now is the repeat again
A whopping Rm21.6 Billions fiberisation project
>>>>
Was he all in cash in 2008 and the missed the biggest rally subsequently?
But he claimed to have recommended stocks 10 or 20 years ago which recently rallied giving him multibaggers gain and yet by his admission he had only 1 stock in 2007/2008!
As was suspected, most "value investors" did not benefit from their selections because they chose to invest in gruesome companies that were appropriately beaten down in their prices. Sooner or later, the prices dropped lower and thes "value investors" sold locking in their losses. They were already out of these stocks many years later when the companies showed temporary business improvements and a short period of rising and falling prices.
Calvin is not credible in many of his posts, lack transparency.
2019-10-02 08:30
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calvintaneng
Haha John Lu,
Result will be official on Dec 31st 2017.
So there is still
Sept
October
November
December.
Wait till then all will know.
Why the hurry?
Come back in 4 months' time then see Mau Sang Wang durian fully ripe.
Only when fully ripe Malaysian durian will give off the best aroma.
If you cannot wait then you must be eating lousy thai durian?
Hohoho!!
2017-08-08 19:36