THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
PH WINNING GE14 ELECTION: SOME OBSERVATIONS ON WHAT'S AHEAD FOR MALAYSIA/KLSE, Calvin Tan Research
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sun, 13 May 2018, 11:01 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,799
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Friends/ Investors in i3 Forum,
This Week has been a momentous time for Malaysia! These are some of Calvin's musings gathered over the weekend from News in Malaysia, Singapore & Abroad. I have compiled my Thoughts & Conclusions as follow:
1) EXPECT A CRAZY PUNTING IN OPCOM & other PH related STOCKS .This suppressed Mukhriz related Stock already up more than 80% from its low.
OPCOM was Calvin's last year entry for i3 Investors Stock Pick last year. It did badly then. Almost totally forsaken & forgotten. And it was the time to buy then. So remember Calvin's 3rd Rule "HE THAT IS LOW NEEDS FEAR NO FALL"
For now Calvin thinks all have to be very carefull. And trade carefully.
Bj Corp
Bj Land
Bj Assets
These Top 3 Vincent Tan Stocks will come into play. TSVT is Tun Dr Mahathir's Very Best Friend.
You can see them both every Tun Mahathir's birthday. (When Najib gave award to outstanding Hokkien Businessman's award last year TSVT was absent (with his respect to TUN DR MAHATHIR)
See
2) EXPECT A SELL DOWN OF BN CRONY STOCKS LIKE GKENT, DRB, FGV, MBSB, AEON, MYEG, OLD TOWN COFFEE (this one escaped by being delisted), ECOWORLD.
MYEG Will Be Hit Directly as GST will be scrapped. IFCA will also be impacted.
GKent is Najib's Cash Cow.
Now why Calvin left out MRCB?
Answer:
With EPF being Top Holder well as Tabung Haji & Bank Rakyat under Minister of Finance (before May 9, 2018 under Najib: after May 9th 2018 Lim Guan Eng has been appointed as the New Minister of Finance under PH) So MRCB being owned by EPF, Tabung Haji & Bank Rakyat is now LGE's New Baby.
Think LGE will kill off MRCB and by proxy kill off Minister of Finance's performance? Think again.
Reason no. 2.
MRCB already sold down and priced in already. EDL will still get compensation as Tun Dr Mahathir promised "THE RULE OF LAW". And Law dictates compensation. So is HSR. It will benefit Malaysia as Indonesia, Thailand & India already have ongoing HSRs.
So any sell down on MRCB is a great buy!
3) Water Utility Stocks like Ranhill will be hit as Johor PH promised "Free Water". PBA in Penang also gave free water for Penangites to booster votes. Both Puncak & KPS in Selangor also impacted by Selangor PH Govt. So avoid Water Utility Stocks as a Whole.
4) SCRAPPING, RENEGOTIATING OR SCALE DOWN OF HIGH INFRAR JOBS LIKE ECER, GEMAS RAIL, TRX, HSR, BANDAR MALAYSIA AND PAN BORNEO HIGH WAY WILL IMPACT CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES LIKE GKENT, MMC, GAMUDA, WCT, SUNWAY, GADANG & OTHERS
As Demand For Steel & Cement will be impacted best to be neutral on these Construction Material Stocks.But all is not lost as PH has promised to build 1 Million Affordable Houses in 2 Terms (8 years)
5) PH GOVT PROMISE TO BUILD 1 MILLION AFFORDABLE HOUSES FOR 2 TERMS (8 YEARS)
As there will be a surge in lower cost affordable houses the profits of Property Stocks will be impacted. Will it cannibalise Developers holding Huge Idle Land Banks? In Singapore Govt will tax idle lands. So all Lazy Developers Hoarding High Amount of Idle LandBanks will be impacted. So as a general rule avoid all Construction & Property Stocks. Of course there are exceptions for those who intend to build Mass Affordable Housing. In line with PH's Housing Manifesto.
6) CANCELLATION OF GST (This done BN in), Reinstallation of Fuel Subsidies, Continuation of BriM, Giving Free Water will put back Purchasing Power into the Pockets of the Rakyat.
This is extremely good news for all Consumer Stocks.
7) EXport Stocks Revival Due to Foreign Funds Selling Down Ringgit & Bursa Stocks? Foreign Funds still haunted by Tun Dr M's Capital Control? Now Malaysia has over USD100 Billions in Reserve.
With PH winning GE14 the Political Paradigm Shift might do these:
a) Stamping further capital flight from Malaysian citizens.
b) Returning of Malaysia's Oversea Diaspora of Skilled Work Force & Talent.
c) Returning of USD200 BILLIONS (Over Rm800 BILLIONS Kept Abroad) To Malaysia!
So don't bank on weak ringgit for Export Stocks booster. RINGGIT MIGHT RECOVER STRONGLY INSTEAD. However, exporting Stocks with Superior Edge can still buy on weakness.
8) O & G STOCKS AND OIL PALM STOCKS?
With Saudi Listing ARAMCO IPO Crude OIl Prices will Be Well Supported. Good for Oil Palm Stocks as CPO is also boosted by Biodiesel. But question is. Will this be sustainable?
Watch OPEC & US Shale OIl Production.
As for Oil Palm Stocks keep watch over how China TradeWar might divert soy planting to cotton. Another factor to watch is US high Plain weather condition this year. Argentina soy crop suffered devastation by drought. Saved by Brazil good production. So the High Plains of USA will determine CPO prices for this year.
As a general rule Calvin likes Kwantas, Harnlern, TDM, WTK, Jtiasa & RSawit. Dutaland also but price has already gone up from 39 sen.
9) AS A FINAL RULE FOLLOW INTRINSIC VALUE FOR ULTIMATE GUIDE AND SAFETY!
It's like This
STOCK A TYPE (BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE - JUST BUY!)
If the Net Net Intrinsic Value is Rm1.00 & price going at 50 Sen just buy some. And add more if price weaken further. Of course there are some rules
a) Avoid All China Red Chip Companies (All their accountings are fake)
b) Avoid Companies which Insiders/Directors have totally sold all. If Insiders/Directors kept up buying with own hard earned monies (good sign: not SBB, this could be a means for Insiders to escape)
c) Avoid Companies with deteriorating Fundamentals like those being clobbered by E-Commerce.
STOCK B TYPE
Those that are selling Above Intrinsic Value
Example the Intrinsic Value is Rm1.00 and Price is chased up due to Strong Earning Catalysts with weak fundamental & no long term competitive edge. Price might go up to Rm2.00, Rm3.00, Rm5.00, Rm10.00 (DANGER!)
Because of Water Theme Play Jaks gone up 300% from 40 Sen?
Or MyEG gone up from 10 Sen to Rm4,00? Due to GST monopoly?
Or Ecoworld up 4,000% from 11 sen to over Rm4.00 due to taking over Focal Aims
Or IWCity going up 3,000% from 10 sen (Tebrau) because of Purported Getting Bandar Malaysia Job last round.
Or chasing Hengyuan from Rm2.00 to Rm19.00 because "Super Investor" say so?
Eventually Just as Water Finds its Own Level ALL STOCKS WILL TRADE AT OR NEAR TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE
As Sifu Warren Buffet said, "Over a short term the share market is a voting machine. But over a longer term the Stock Market is a Weighing Machine.
In other words, a stock can have any value determined by the Sentiment of Mr Market. But over a very long term Mr. Market does not dictate its value But ITS TRUE INTRINSIC NET WORTH DETERMINES ITS REAL VALUE!
WARMEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan, Singapore
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 42 of 42 comments
mrcb was ok but mbsb was not ok?are you ok?
epf hold 60% of mbsb leh my friend.
2018-05-14 01:19
thankfully I sold my mrcb-wb at 34cts.....hahaha,see u at 24cts soon,but anyway I won't be buying back cos I will buy pro PH stocks
2018-05-14 01:21
Is this Calvin a paid commented from Official #1
and mostly... your RSAWIT.
Go to RSAWIT office and take a look
2018-05-14 01:36
more money in people hands and they more money to buy legal cigaratte. Dunhilll
2018-05-14 01:38
THANK YOU STOCK KINGDOM, gohkimhock and Alex,
MAY ALL PROSPER IN A NEW DAWN FOR MALAYSIA
MALAYSIA BOLEH!!!
2018-05-14 09:14
just to clarify. Penang no free water. Minimum charges is RM5 with certain usage quota. Use water or not, minimum payment is RM5. If you exceed specific water usage limit then need to pay extra.
2018-05-14 09:35
77777
Please tell us a little more about RSawit.
Rsawit is a pure plantation play while Jtiasa has both timber and oil palms
2018-05-14 14:12
spaghetti932,
I still holding PBA shares.
If not for some allowance of free water my PBA should have crossed Rm1.50 by now.
Hope LGE will be more generous with PBA dividend payout.
2018-05-14 14:14
Alex,
Yes, MALAYSIA SHOULD RISE UP TO BE A GREAT NATION ONE DAY.
REFORM GOVERNANCE OF THE
RACE.
LET MERITOCRASY RISE ABOVE RACIAL BIAS.
RELIGION.
LET ALL HAVE FREEDOM OF WORSHIP
ECONOMY
MAY ALL GOVT PROJECTS GO BY TENDER AND TRANSPARENCY AND FAIR PLAY
RULE OF LAW ABOVE THE RULE OF MAN
2018-05-14 14:19
those on fifo.....faster log profit before other log their profit
all the junks counters flying = risk
2018-05-14 14:28
NOW IS THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME FOR PUNTERS
FUNDAMENTAL HAS BEEN THROWN ASIDE IN FAVOUR OF RECKLESS SPECULATION
PLEASE RESTRAIN YOURSELVES.
DON'T SUCCUM TO GREED OR FEAR!!!
2018-05-14 16:39
hahahahaha, they just won't listen. Bursa = infinity supply of water fishes.....after get burn, they will come & start cursing PH no good, want to bet not ?
I saw someone pay red chips , got burned, then put blame on MCA's Michael Chong...
I'm waiting to see people to get burn, see who they wanted to blame on PH now.....
2018-05-14 16:52
Hahaha!!!
SAMI VELU ESCAPED THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS BECAUSE HE BOUGHT REAL ESTATE IN INDIA?
CLEVER!!
2018-05-14 17:04
Can only check if can short sell Protasco or not? Cancellation of contract and craw back of illegal corruption during Najib time anytime can drop to 20 sen. You show how close is Vincent Tan with Tun Mahathir, this is “how close” Protasco CEO tey to stick his face with Najib http://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/refreshcountry/156512.jsp
2018-05-14 19:41
trulyinvest,
you are correct on aeon.
But Opcom gone limit up while Gkent and MyEg both went limit down
2018-05-15 00:19
6) CANCELLATION OF GST (This done BN in), Reinstallation of Fuel Subsidies, Continuation of BriM, Giving Free Water will put back Purchasing Power into the Pockets of the Rakyat.
This is extremely good news for all Consumer Stocks.
Additional comments:
As more Cash goes into the pockets of consumers Calvin has picked 2 stocks
1) Bj Corp due to its Star Buck Coffee, Donkin Donut, Pizza, Wendy Burger, 7 Eleven, B Auto, Hotels & Resorts which are all consumer based.
2) TA Enterprize
As more people have extra cash some might be channeled into the Retail Stock Markets. And if Businesses have made monies when consumers open their pocket books and spend the extra profits might also be invested in the Stock Market.
So the collective positive contribution from CASH flowing into the real economy might propel consumer centric stock like TA Enterprize
2018-05-15 08:22
y calvintaneng > May 15, 2018 09:47 AM | Report Abuse X
Hi Guys
Calvin is very happy for all who bought OPCOM while cheap.
As prices have zoomed past Rm1.00 now please do not be greedy but to take some profit and switch to laggards like TA Enterprize or Bj Corp.
Oversold shares with fundamental like MRCB & Media Prima also worth considering.
Choah Kwang Hua the Opcom Insider has disposed all his over 600,000 OPCOM shares at 90.5 sen yesterday.
For now OPCOM must get some more Fresh Project Awards from Telekom to justify its price rise.
Warmest Regards
Calvin Tan Research
2018-05-15 09:48
Calvin Tan is resourceful. This is obvious. However, his stock selections and recommendations are extremely poor indeed.
2018-05-15 12:46
Joekit
IF TELEKOM MAKE A HUGE RM1 BILLIONS ORDER FROM OPCOM FOR FULL FORCE FIBERISATION OPCOM'S PRICE CAN CROSS RM2.00.
RM3.50 MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IF MR MARKET GONE MAD LATER. HAHA!
2018-05-15 13:04
SEE
ALWAYS BUY WHEN PRICE IS BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE AND DON'T CHASE AFTER PRICE HAS GONE ABOVE INTRINSIC VALUE.
OPCOM IS CHASED UP. SO BE CAREFUL DON'T BE TOO GREEDY.
AND MRCB IS SOLD DOWN FAR BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE. DON'T BE FEARFUL AND SIMPLY THROW.
YOU MUST NOT YIELD TO GREED. YOU MUST ALSO NOT YIELD TO FEAR"
TO WIN YOU MUST BE IN FULL CONTROL OF YOUR EMOTIONS
2018-05-15 16:22
AND WHAT IS EMOTION?
E-MOTION AS IN ENERGY IN MOTION
THIS IS VERY BAD IN INVESTMENT.
WHERE WATER IS COLD OR AT ROOM TEMPERATURE THE WATER MOLECULES ARE STABLE.
BUT WHEN WATER IS HEATED UP AT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE THEN THE MOLECULES ARE A-BOILING.
THAT IS THE TIME PEOPLE GET BURNT!!
SO IS CHASING STOCKS WHEN THEY ARE AT BOILING POINT LIKE ALL PH RELATED STOCKS.
SO TAKE CARE GUYS.
ALWAYS REMEMBER CALVIN'S 3RD RULE:
HE THAT IS LOW NEEDS FEAR NO FALL.
2018-05-15 16:27
@Alex
Sg Siput but forgot which year oledi....too nyanyuk
@ Pastor Calvin
Mai lwan lwan kong hor, later kena fake news charge when you cross over to Malaysia from Singapore.
2018-05-15 18:05
Thanks Calvin for causing you to lose money in MRCB?
Stock Kingdom Thank you
13/05/2018 23:38
gohkimhock Thx Calvin.
14/05/2018 00:06
2018-05-15 20:32
Sami Velu read this
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/realty-trends/realty-companies-fail-to-woo-nris/articleshow/5486630.cms
2018-05-15 22:40
cheated Thanks Calvin for causing you to lose money in MRCB?
Calvin just bought some more MRCB at 78 sen today!!!
SEE IF I WILL ALSO MAKE A WHOLE LOT MORE LIKE OPCOM SOME DAY?
Hehehe!!
HE WHO LAUGH LAST LAUGHS THE LOUDEST!!!
2018-05-15 22:42
hahahaha....pastor calvin tan eng, you win, salute.
ini macam also can dig out.
but truth is, I got relative from India, the 2nd Gen. When the father passed away, the land was illegally occupied by other ppl. Now have to go thru & forth India court for the dispute.
Lesson is, don't invest in India, bad advise by Samy Vellu for NRIs.
2018-05-15 22:49
Some thoughts about Governance by TUN DR. M & PH
There are 3 Forms of Church Governments
1) Congregational
Rule by the people. Examples are Congregational Churches and Independent Baptist Churches.
Leadership is Elected By the People. Fully democratic.
This happens in GE14 on May 9 2018 when all Malaysians exercised their power! And people power prevailed!
2) Autocratic
Rule by One Man
This is what Catholic practiced. The Pope controls. A Few Christian Organisations practice this. Only an incorruptible benevolent regime can succeed.
For weak human - power corrupts. And absolute power corrupts absolutely. Examples are Hitler, Marcos & some other dictators
3) PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH GOVERNMENT (RULE BY A BOARD OF ELDERS)
Now that TUN DR MAHATHIR HAS APPOINTED A BOARD OF HIGHLY EXPERIENCED ELDERS LIKE TUN DAIM, FORMER BANK NEGARA ZETI, TYCOON ROBERT KUOK & OTHERS - MALAYSIA WILL ENTER INTO A NEW PARADIGM SHIFT OF COLLECTIVE GOVERNANCE.
SO THERE IS CHECK AND BALANCES IN THE COLLECTIVE SUM TOTAL OF WISDOM & EXPERIENCE FOR MALAYSIA - MALAYSIA BOLEH!!!
2018-05-15 22:55
Some thoughts about Governance by TUN DR. M & PH
There are 3 Forms of Church Governments
1) Congregational
Rule by the people. Examples are Congregational Churches and Independent Baptist Churches.
Leadership is Elected By the People. Fully democratic.
This happens in GE14 on May 9 2018 when all Malaysians exercised their power! And people power prevailed!
2) Autocratic
Rule by One Man
This is what Catholic practiced. The Pope controls. A Few Christian Organisations practice this. Only an incorruptible benevolent regime can succeed.
For weak human - power corrupts. And absolute power corrupts absolutely. Examples are Hitler, Marcos & some other dictators
3) PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH GOVERNMENT (RULE BY A BOARD OF ELDERS)
Now that TUN DR MAHATHIR HAS APPOINTED A BOARD OF HIGHLY EXPERIENCED ELDERS LIKE TUN DAIM, FORMER BANK NEGARA ZETI, TYCOON ROBERT KUOK & OTHERS - MALAYSIA WILL ENTER INTO A NEW PARADIGM SHIFT OF COLLECTIVE GOVERNANCE.
SO THERE IS CHECK AND BALANCES IN THE COLLECTIVE SUM TOTAL OF WISDOM & EXPERIENCE FOR MALAYSIA - MALAYSIA BOLEH!!!
AND TO SUM IT UP
1) RULE BY THE PEOPLE. LEADERSHIP IS BY THE MASSES. SOMETIME MASSES ARE VISIONLESS. BUT THERE IS NO EXTREMISM
2) RULE BY ONE MAN.
THIS CAN BE GOOD IF THERE IS EXCELLENT LEADERSHIP. THE DANGER IS MAN MIGHT BE CARRIED AWAY BY TOO MUCH POWER.
3) RULE BY A GROUP OF ELDERS (THIS IS RULE BY COLLECTIVE CONSENSUS)
USUALLY VERY MODERATE, BALANCED & SOUND. EACH CONTRIBUTES POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FEEDBACK
AND THE BEST IDEAS ARE IMPLEMENTED & BAD ONES REJECTED
"Where no counsel is, the people fall: but in the multitude of counsellors there is safety."
Proverbs 11:14, KJV
2018-05-15 23:06
so, any suggestions on bjcorp? what is the expect next move by vt? thx for advice and sharing. kam sia
2018-05-15 23:19
loonginv,
For bj corp need to wait for China Great Mall Sale Proceeds to be resolved first. In any case TSVT has overprovided for its impairment which are overdone.
Maybe TSVT wanted to project a less rosy picture for Bj Corp as ex Pm Najib taxed CHHB last round. Both TSVT and Lee Kim Yew are friends of PH Dr M
2018-05-16 00:18
TODAY DATUK SRI ANWAR IBRAHIM,
THE NELSON MANDELA OF MALAYSIA IS REALEASED!!
MAY THE FREEDOM OF DATUK ANWAR IBRAHIM MIRRORS THE REMOVAL OF ALL SHACKLES FROM MALAYSIA
FREEDOM!
FREEDOM!!
FREEDOM!!!
FREE FROM CORRUPTION, TYRANNY OR FEAR OF STANDING UP FOR THE TRUTH AND THE RIGHTS OF ALL CITIZENS IN MALAYSIA!!!
MAY DATUK SRI ANWAR WITH THE GUIDANCE OF TUN DR MAHATHIR AND COUNSEL OF EMINENT ELDERS BRING MALAYSIA INTO THE MOST GLORIOUS ERA AHEAD!!!
HIP HIP HOORAY!!!
2018-05-16 22:59
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CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Stock Kingdom
Thank you
2018-05-13 23:38