THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
ECS ICT - Part of the ECommerce Future in Malaysia (For Companies. For Households. For Teens & Children)Calvin Tan Research
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 21 Jul 2018, 12:37 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,802
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Hi guys,
After VenFx's EG and Uncle Koon's Gadang now I want to highlight our friend KcChongNz's ECS ICT as another Value Buy
I called for a buy on EG when it fell below 50 sen. I also called for a buy on Gadang when price fell below 70 sen. Both have now gone up in price.
Why is ECS now a buy at Rm1.03?
These are my findings:
1) At Rm1.03 with NTA of Rm1.54 ECS ICT is now selling at a nice 34% Discount to NTA which qualifies it As A Margin of Safety Stock. Ben Graham wants at least 30% discount to NTA as a Margin of Safety.
2) A Look at ECS Assets reveal surprising Cash & Cash Equivalents
CASH is Rm80,575,000 and Paid Up Capital is 180 Million shares
So Cash is 44.76 Sen of Rm1.03 or 43.4%
Now looking at it more carefully Its Cash has increased from Rm50 Mil to Rm80 mil last quarter. The extra Rm30 mil is from sale of Inventories.
Note this
Inventories 89,588,000 (NOW) 122,980,000 (LAST YEAR)
Aha. CASH CAME FROM CASHING OUT OR PARING DOWN OF INVENTORIES FROM RM122 MILLIONS TO RM ABOUT RM90 MILLIONS WHICH IS LESS BY RM32 MILLIONS
FROM HERE WE STILL SEE RM89.5 MILLIONS AS INVENTORIES
WHAT ARE THEY?
ICT Distribution: Desktop PC, notebooks, mobility devices and peripherals
Enterprise Systems: Server, storage, software and networking products
ICT Services: Services and maintenance
NOW THESE STOCKS OF GOODS CAN ALSO BE CONVERTED TO CASH AS WELL
RM89.588 MILLIONS OF 180 MILLIONS PAID UP CAPITAL WHICH TRANSLATES TO ANOTHER 49.7 SEN CASH EQUIVALENT
THAT MEANS ECS HAS A TOTAL OF 94.46 SEN CASH OR CASH EQIVALENT
THAT MEANS THAT AFTER DEDUCTING 94.46 SEN FROM RM1.03 WE ARE BUYING
ECS COMPANY FOR ONLY 8.54 SEN?
FOR ITS VAST BUSINESS SET UP WITH THOUSANDS OF RETAIL DISTRIBUTORS
FOR ITS 2 FACTORIES FROM DEBT DEFAULTERS
FOR ITS STRONG ESTABLISHED BRANDS
FOR ITS EXCELLENT LEADERSHIP AND GUIDANCE FROM SINGAPOREAN INVESTORS & BOSSES?
ABOVE ALL
FROM ITS UPCOMING SUN RISE INDUSTRY OF E COMMERCE, E TRADING, E LEARNING, E BANKING & MORE!
1) FROM BUSINESSES
THE ANNUAL REPORT OF ECS FLASHED WITH THIS CAPTION
(((DRIVING THE E COMMERCE REVOLUTION)))
INDEED OUTSIDE CHINA JACK MA OF ALIBABA IS SETTING UP THE FIRST DIGITAL FREE TRADE ZONE IN MALAYSIA
TENS OF THOUSANDS OF MALAYSIAN SMEs ARE ENCOURAGED TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS WORLD CHANGING REVOLUTION OF SELLING GOODS AND SERVICES ONLINE
2) FROM HOUSEHOLDS
CURRENTLY E COMMERCE IS ONLY 2% IN MALAYSIA. SO THERE IS NO SATURATION YET FOR A LONG LONG TIME TO COME. 98% OF MALAYSIAN HOUSEHOLDS HAVE YET TO JOIN THE BUYING SPREE ONLINE
Let me relate my experience.
Last week in Singapore my computer CBU failed. So I went to Jurong Point to shop for a new one.
Ha! The cheapest one from CHALLENGER (Computer shop) Cost S$800 or Rm2.400
Then I checked with LAZADA (Spore). I got one for S$170 (about rm510). That's A Nice saving of almost 80%
But the brand I bought from LAZADA is about S$400 among less expensive Shopping Complex. So still save by more than 50%.
Last year I bought 3 Airconds for my house in johor
THE FIRST ONE I BOUGHT IT FROM A SHOP IN TAMAN PERLING SELLIING ELECTRICAL GOODS
COST OF INSTALLATION WITH MIDEA AIRCON 1 HP SPLIT WAS RM1,000
THEN I SEARCHED ONLINE IN LAZADA (MALAYSIA)
I GOT 2 YORK 1 HP SPLIT AIRCOND FOR ABOUT RM700 EACH. THEN I CALLED MARAN THE AIRCON GUY TO SET IT UP FOR RM250 COST. TOTAL WAS ABOUT RM950
SO BY BUYING ONLINE I GOT A BETTER QUALITY AIRCOND AND CHEAPER!!
NOTE
IN LAZADA RIGHT NOW MIDEA 1 HP SPLIT AIRCON IS SELLING FOR ONLY RM595
RM595.00
SO IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME THE REST OF 98% OF MALAYSIAN HOUSEHOLDS WILL LEARN TO BUY ONLINE
AND ECS HAS HUGE POTENTIAL INDEED.
3) FROM TEENS, YOUNG ADULTS, CHILDREN AND A FEW OLD SENOIRS PLAYING COMPUTER GAMES ON IPHONES AND ESPECIALLY IN NEIGHBOURHOOD COMPUTER LAN GAMES SHOP
Last time when I was small I used to catch spiders, play marbles and tops, fly kites and play hide and seek
TODAY CHILDREN ARE ALL ADDICTED TO COMPUTER GAMES DAY AND NIGHT EVERYDAY, THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE YEAR!
THIS PHENOMENAL DOPE OF ADDICTION FOR YOUNG PEOPLE WILL NEED LOTS AND LOTS OF PRODUCTS FROM ECS
HOW MANY EVENINGS WHEN I VISITED LAN GAMES SHOPS TO DO SOME INTERNET RESEARCH I HEARD SHOUTINGS AND SCREAMINGS AMONG THESE FRENZIED YOUNG PEOPLE SHOOTING AT CHARACTERS IN THE COMPUTERS.
SURPRISINGLY SOME OF THESE YOUNG GUYS STAYED UP ALL NIGHT TO PLAY AND PLAY NON STOP.
SO JUST THINK CAREFULLY AND LOOK INTO THE FAR FUTURE WHEN TELEKOM HAS PENETRATED INTO ALL PARTS OF MALAYSIA IN ITS NOOKS AND CORNERS
YEARS BACK I READ THAT INTERNET PENETRATION IN KOREA WAS OVER 90% WHILE MALAYSIA HAS NOT REACHED EVEN 30%. SO I SAW THE FUTURE OF INTERNET FIBER OPTIC
SO I AND JOHOR BUDDIES ALL LOADED UP ON OPCOM FROM 60 SEN TO 35 SEN. TODAY OPCOM IS 94 SEN.
I SEE THE SAME WITH ECS ICT AT RM1.03
I THINK IT SHOULD TRADE ABOVE RM2.00
HOW FAR HIGHER IT WILL GO FROM RM2.00? THAT IS YET TO BEEN SEEN
BEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan Research
Singapore
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON SAVINGS BY BUYING ONLINE
Last time when I visited Johor Premium Outlet in Johor I saw PADINI selling designer clothes at bargain prices.
I saw the potential of PADINI at Rm1.60 & called for a buy. In good times people buy PADINI shirts because it offers Value. And in bad times even more people will buy PADINI shirts because of economy & savings by its huge marked down prices.
And I was right. PADINI later up 200% to almost Rm6.00
So in good times we happily find Bargains by Online Shopping
Bad times?
Ha! Even more vital reason by buying Online for HUGE SAVINGS FROM 30% TO 80%.
The tremendous success of AMAZON, ALIBABA & LAZADA prove that THIS IS THE FUTURE
Jeff Bezos has now overtaken all to be the No. 1 Richest Man on Earch through his Immense Success in AMAZON - First started Selling Books Online - Then Branch Out Into All Plethora of Goods & Services Online.
THIS IS WHY CALVIN HAS HIGH HOPE FOR ECS ICT
LISTEN TO ECS CAPTION AGAIN & THINK
(((DRIVING THE E COMMERCE REVOLUTION)))
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 60 comments
Dear calvintaneng bro,
I see your article getting more and more interesting , quite offenly u see Things Out of the Box .
A plus point to your bring out timing is , very likely this stock are about to 'Bottoming Out' which is crucially to most of your readers ...
Thank you bro !
2018-07-21 14:41
but mata buta calvintaneng, how abt ur jcy/mrcb/bjc/csc and so on?????
for someone who doesnt even know what is hdd, how can we trust ur pov????
btw, do u know who is the political link behind opcom????
lol..........
2018-07-21 23:33
I think ECS ICT will be a boring stock due to low margins. No doubt the price has bottomed but there's not likely much upside. I would think that other battered stocks which are many would offer greater upside.
2018-07-21 23:58
It's ok
There was one even more boring stock selling plastic straw called TGuan. 10 years ago TGuan was an unwanted penny stock at only 55 sen in year 2008/9.
On feb 24th 2017 TGuan turned into a very hot stock at Rm4.79 (Up 770% in 9 years or 85.5% a year. How little profit margin selling a plastic drinking straw?
At that time only TGuan Boss was buying at 55 sen when all shunned it.
So now when ECS is sold down & unwanted
SEE HOW INSIDERS ARE BUYING
ECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 31-May-2018 Acquired 2,300,000 0.000 View Detail
VSTECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 31-May-2018 Acquired 2,300,000 0.000 View Detail
MADAM LEE MARN FONG 30-May-2018 Acquired 50,000 0.000 View Detail
MR FOO SEN CHIN 30-May-2018 Acquired 50,000 0.000 View Detail
MADAM LEE MARN FONG 28-May-2018 Acquired 49,000 0.000 View Detail
MR FOO SEN CHIN 28-May-2018 Acquired 49,000 0.000 View Detail
ECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 22-Jan-2018 Acquired 9,000 0.000 View Detail
VSTECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 22-Jan-2018 Acquired 9,000 0.000 View Detail
ECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 18-Jan-2018 Acquired 200,000 0.000 View Detail
VSTECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 18-Jan-2018 Acquired 200,000 0.000 View Detail
ECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 16-Jan-2018 Acquired 126,700 0.000 View Detail
VSTECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 16-Jan-2018 Acquired 126,700 0.000 View Detail
ECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 15-Jan-2018 Acquired 77,300 0.000 View Detail
VSTECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 15-Jan-2018 Acquired 77,300 0.000 View Detail
ECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 12-Jan-2018 Acquired 32,000 0.000 View Detail
VSTECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 12-Jan-2018 Acquired 32,000 0.000 View Detail
ECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 11-Jan-2018 Acquired 272,700 0.000 View Detail
VSTECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 11-Jan-2018 Acquired 272,700 0.000 View Detail
ECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 04-Jan-2018 Acquired 120,000 0.000 View Detail
VSTECS HOLDINGS LIMITED 04-Jan-2018 Acquired 120,000 0.000
2018-07-22 00:16
Yes I just checked op on TGuan the most boring stock selling straw
On March 4th 2009 it was 55 sen
3 years later on March 2nd 2012 TGuan rose to Rm1.38 or up 150%
So still ok for going up each of the 3 years at 50%. Not bad.
2018-07-22 00:26
You were younger then. Twenty years ago I could hold for a decade if I wanted to. But today at my age I have a shorter time horizon. I had a great time during the Second Board a-go-go time.
2018-07-22 00:27
I think i am still young. Can hold for another 30 years, hopefully?
Today ECommerce penetration in Malaysia is 2% - still in its earliest infancy.
Wait till 90% of Malaysians know how to buy and shop online then only know the full potential of ECS ICT?
2018-07-22 00:31
One great news for ECS
See
https://www.todayonline.com/world/why-millennials-are-driving-cashless-revolution-china
2018-07-22 01:00
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON SAVINGS BY BUYING ONLINE
Last time when I visited Johor Premium Outlet in Johor I saw PADINI selling designer clothes at bargain prices.
I saw the potential of PADINI at Rm1.60 & called for a buy. In good times people buy PADINI shirts because it offers Value. And in bad times even more people will buy PADINI shirts because of economy & savings by its huge marked down prices.
And I was right. PADINI later up 200% to almost Rm6.00
So in good times we happily find Bargains by Online Shopping
Bad times?
Ha! Even more vital reason by buying Online for HUGE SAVINGS FROM 30% TO 80%.
The tremendous success of AMAZON, ALIBABA & LAZADA prove that THIS IS THE FUTURE
Jeff Bezos has now overtaken all to be the No. 1 Richest Man on Earch through his Immense Success in AMAZON - First started Selling Books Online - Then Branch Out Into All Plethora of Goods & Services Online.
THIS IS WHY CALVIN HAS HIGH HOPE FOR ECS ICT
LISTEN TO ECS CAPTION AGAIN & THINK
(((DRIVING THE E COMMERCE REVOLUTION)))
And since today is THE LORD'S DAY time to visit www.chick.com
2018-07-22 07:52
i also bought Padini then at 1.59 but unfortunately sold it 2 years later at 3.
2018-07-22 08:47
Padini is one regret to me. Bcoz for whatever reasons, this stock was not appreciated by the market for its fundamentals and have been undervalued for many many years. And out of nowhere mr.market falls in love with Padini, re-rate its multiples higher and higher. And i sold early thinking its probably fairly valued basing on its historical multiples.
2018-07-22 08:53
Gobind Singh Deo said it would also ensure the Internet could be enjoyed by all levels of the society, including in the rural areas , towards having a better informed society.
“We see all houses have electricity and water supply because they are basic rights. if possible, we want all houses to be provided with Internet infrastructure or broadband,” he told reporters after a meeting with the ministry’s staff in Sabah here today.
Gobind Singh said the Ministry was committed to further strengthening the Internet infrastructure, including with the use of fibre cable and wireless technology so that the facility could be accessed everybody.
Towards this end, he said the ministry was in the process of discussing with telecommunication companies on the proposal to change the National Fibre Plan (NFP) to National Connectivity Plan
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/kkmm-wants-internet-access-be-basic-right-people
Note these words:
"WE SEE ALL HOUSES HAVE ELECTRICITY AND WATER SUPPLY BECAUSE THEY ARE BASIC RIGHTS.
WE WANT ALL HOUSES TO BE PROVIDED WITH INTERNET...."
2018-07-22 10:47
but mata buta calvintaneng, u r alrdy using wrong valuation on ict stocks.
ict stocks valuation is not based on nta but pe.
btw, besides nta, u dont know other valuation methods, is it?????
lol...............
2018-07-22 10:52
mr calvin, why dont u promote destini? That one also selling below NTA and insiders buying back heavily
2018-07-22 12:23
Can add into my watchlist and see what it wants to do next.....before buying
(not time yet)
2018-07-22 12:38
Posted by jibbie > Jul 22, 2018 12:23 PM | Report Abuse
mr calvin, why dont u promote destini? That one also selling below NTA and insiders buying back heavily
Jibbie,
I haven't study yet. Anyway, thanks for bringing up
2018-07-22 13:21
EngineeringProfit Can add into my watchlist and see what it wants to do next.....before buying
(not time yet)
22/07/2018 12:38
Good. You have a correct attitude
Always do your own homework
2018-07-22 13:22
but mata buta calvintaneng, can u tell me why u use nta instead of pe in valuing ict companies????
i never heard of anyone using nta to value an ict company..
pe or dcf is used.
so can u tell us why u use nta????
lol.............
2018-07-22 13:28
一买就大涨
calvin, don't forget, online no after sale service, nowadays electric goods are not durable, my fan spoilt within a few mnths, luckily it under warranty n can change straight away from the store... n also u might be con not all are genuine sellers...
22/07/2018 12:42
Yes, i think in Malaysia Online sales back up is weak.
I got lucky so far. 2 York Aircond I bought almost 2 years still ok.
Some items I bought not so big as i thought. But all Ok for the price.
I would say i am at least 80% satisfied.
In Singapore the Computer CBU i bought got heavy sound. So I called the seller who is from Pandan Loop. He came and replaced it. See i am able to post this now?
Working well.
Btw
At Jurong Point Shop Rental is S$20 to S$30 pm (About Rm60 to Rm90 psf)
His warehouse in Pandan Loop cost only S$1.00 to S$1.50 psf or Rm3.00 to Rm4.50 psf
So he could really compete as his rental cost is only a mere 5%
THIS WILL SPELL THE DOOM OF MALLS ALL OVER THE WORLD.
But Companies with Warehouses will thrive.
Ha! I already got one in mind. A transport company with both Normal & Bonded Warehouses. That will be my next post
2018-07-22 13:30
but flyingkite, why u bring up something irrelevant like ur fan????
can u value-add like telling me why the valuation used is wrong instead of telling me something that many of us alrdy know?????
but we shldnt expect much from someone who bought jcy at 55sens to understand how to value ict companies.
lol...............
Posted by 一买就大涨 > Jul 22, 2018 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
calvin, don't forget, online no after sale service, nowadays electric goods are not durable, my fan spoilt within a few mnths, luckily it under warranty n can change straight away from the store... n also u might be con not all are genuine sellers...
2018-07-22 13:31
Posted by 一买就大涨 > Jul 22, 2018 12:47 PM | Report Abuse
from my observation, calvin's promotion can only last 1 day.. better don't chase high..
For this i agree with you
Some of Calvin's stocks like Opcom, Gsb, Waseong, Kulim, TMakmur, TheStore, and Super Enterprize and others are so cold that nobody bothered until owners took them private.
2018-07-22 13:35
but mata buta calvintaneng, since u r so bullish on internet shopping, then why u still want promote mui since retailing accounts for almost 25% of its revenue stream?????
seems like u r slapping ur own face.
lol...............
2018-07-22 13:37
so mata buta calvintaneng, can u answer my questions on ur valuation method and investment thesis instead of reporting my posts as abuse????
lol..............
2018-07-22 13:38
why ask me read bible, mata buta calvintaneng????
my questions got nothing to do with bible.
lol...............
2018-07-22 13:44
so can tell us why reading bible explain why u use nta for valuing ict companies, mata buta calvintaneng????
lol...........
2018-07-22 13:47
but mata buta calvintaneng, do u know when nta is used?????
ict is classified as a growth company, not a property company.
so nta cannot be used to value a growth company since it doesnt take into account of the potential future growth or profitability. only pe and dcf do.
nta is used only in asset rich companies like property developers or auto-makers, not ict companies.
so obviously u dont know ur accounting 101.
lol..............
2018-07-22 13:53
and as usual, when mata buta calvintaneng's stupidity gets exposed, he only know how to read the bible or report postings as abuse.
lol................
2018-07-22 13:56
but flyingkite, u dont even know how to value jcy, so can u tell us whether jcy is a buy at 28sens?????
lol...........
Posted by 一买就大涨 > Jul 22, 2018 01:56 PM | Report Abuse
calvin, I know y that trash keep barking at u, bec u are the ony 1 entertain her.. to the others, she is transparent n I never waste my time to read her posts..
2018-07-22 13:58
but mata buta calvintaneng, i have proven ur investment thesis to be full of holes, so does it make u a mata buta trash????
lol............
2018-07-22 13:59
but mata buta trash calvintaneng, u r unable to rebut my doubts on ur investment thesis. so does banning me makes u any smarter????
lol..............
2018-07-22 14:01
cannot rebut so report my postings as abuse.
why dont u and flyingkite activate ur clones to report all my postings as abuse?????
good way to spend ur sunday afternoon.
lol.............
2018-07-22 14:02
Some interesting observation on ECS
1) Dividend still ongoing at about 5 sen
2) In the Quarterly Report there is an investment in clubhouse about Rm62,000
Ha! ECS Directors go exercise & keep their bodies & brain fit and healthy. Good sign indeed. Vivocom directors go for mergers and corporate exercises while its share price crashed from 16 sen to 5 sen.
So ECS Directors are doing fruitful exercise while Vivocom directors are doing futile exercise
2018-07-23 03:46
but mata buta trash calvintaneng, u still havent tell us why u use nta to value an ict company????
lol.............
2018-07-23 11:16
mata buta clown calvintaneng is my punching bag when i m bored.
since he likes to talk nonsense, might as well embarrass him infront of the forum.
macam like the emperor's new clothes.
lol............
2018-07-23 17:59
Posted by calvintaneng > Jul 23, 2018 07:37 PM | Report Abuse X
WAHAHA!
When Media was about Rm1.00 Calvin called for a buy
WHEN MEDIA FELL TO A LOW OF 28 SEN?
CALVIN CALLED FOR A VERY STRONG BUY!!
ALWAYS BE BRAVE TO BUY AT OR NEAR BOTTOM WHEN OTHERS ARE IN PANIC
SEE MEDIA NOW REACHING 60 SEN?
HUHUHU!!!
AND THESE ARE FALLEN STOCKS TO BUY NOW
1) DUTALAND (GREAT NEWS COMING IN AUGUST)
2) COMPLETE LOGISTIC (INSIDERS LOADING UP)
3) ECS ICT (INSIDERS LOADING UP!!)
4) COMPLETE LOGISTIC (LOAD UP?)
5) TAMBUN INDAH (THUMBS UP) UP FROM 82 sen to over Rm1.00! Don't chase
6) EKSONS up a little already. Still cheap
7) TA (Just got Huge Dividend)
ALWAYS BUY LOW
THE LOWER THE BETTER!!!
23/07/2018 19:48
23/07/2018 19:51
2018-07-23 19:51
and once again, i have driven mata buta trash calvintaneng mad again.
lol.............
2018-07-23 19:55
your 2 sen?
Ecs ict is giving 5 sen dividend already? It will increase also as it is cash rich and debt free
ECS IS NOT SELLING GOODS ONLINE LAH
ECS SELLS THROUGH ITS MANY COMPUTER SHOPS IN MALAYSIA....THOUSANDS OF THEM
AND ECOMMERCE COMPANIES BUY FROM THESE PHYSICAL STORES TO SET UP THEIR COMPUTER NETWORKS TO DO ECOMMERCE BUSINESS. SO MUST SEE CAREFULLY OK?
2018-07-28 15:49
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
So is i3 internet forum
I sit here on my sofa and Singapore now and post this stuff on my handphone
2018-07-21 14:35