THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
THE IMPORTANCE OF ECRL (EAST COAST RAIL LINK) IN THE MARITIME SILK ROUTE, Calvin Tan Research
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 13 Apr 2019, 08:38 AM
calvintaneng
0 1,832
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
CALVIN THINKS ECRL WILL BE A GAME CHANGER FOR ALL: THOSE THAT HAVE ECRL TRAIN STOPS WILL BENEFIT DIRECTLY. BUT WHOLE MALAYSIA WILL BENEFIT EVENTUALLY FOR THESE REASONS
1) WHEN THE NORTH SOUTH HIGHWAY WAS BUILD ALL THE WAY FROM NEAR THAI BORDER TO THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF JOHOR PEOPLE SAY IT'S A WASTE OF MONEY
HOW DUMB! PLUS HIGHWAY OPENED UP WEST MALAYSIA IN COMMERCE, TRAVEL & TOURISM
2) WHEN AIRPORT WAS SHIFTED FROM SUBANG TO SEPANG PEOPLE ALSO SAY IT WAS A WASTE OF MONEY
IF NO PLUS HIGHWAY OR SUBANG AIRPORT MALAYSIA WILL BE "BANGLASIA"
NOW ECRL IS A VERY IMPORTANT PROJECT IF YOU CAN "SEE" THE WHOLE PICTURE
THIS MARITIME RAIL LINE LINKS PORT KLANG TO KUANTAN PORT, KEMAMAN PORT & TOK BALI PORT
WHILE PLUS HIGHWAY LINKS MALAYSIA TO SINGAPORE & THAILAND THIS ECRL LINKS SEAPORT TO SEAPORTS (THEY DON'T END THERE LIKE WHITE ELEPHANTS)
THEY ARE CONNECTORS IN THE WORLD OF COMMERCE = SAVING BOTH TIME AND MONEY
THINK OF THE SUEZ CANAL. BEFORE SUEZ CANAL WAS BUILT SHIPS TRAVEL ALL THE DOWN THE AFRICAN COAST. SAME GOES FOR THE PANAMA CANAL. LAST TIME SHIPS SAILED DOWN TO ARGENTINA
SO THIS ECRL IS PART OF THE VERY BIG CONNECTING MARITIME TRADE ROUTE
IN TOTAL THE COST TO CHINA IS RM5 TRILLIONS
CHINA HAVING AT LEAST 5,000 YEARS OF CIVILIZATION KNOWS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE OLD SILK ROAD BEST
(CHINA EVEN BUILT A RAILWAY LINE RIGHT UP TO THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND WHGLE OF CHINA NOW CRISS-CROSSED BY HIGH SPEED RAIL LINES!
NOW ALL THE PORTS WILL SEE ENHANCED ACTIVITIES
ALL TOWNS & CITIES ALONG THIS ECRL WILL EVENTUALLY GROW & GROW LIKE KL, SEREMBAN, IPOH & OTHERS AFTER PLUS WAS BUILT (THOSE LIKE KAMPAR, MANTIN OR EVEN SEGAMAT WILL BE BYPASSED)
SO WE MUST INVEST EARLY BEFORE NEW TOWNSHIP RISES ALL ALONG THESE ECRL STATIONS & ESPECIALLY THE ONES NEAR MAJOR INTERCHANGES AS WELL AS PORTS
SINGAPORE IS WHAT IT IS TODAY ALL BECAUSE OF ITS CENTRALITY FOR TRANSPORT, LOCATION & POSITION (HAVING ZERO RESOURCES AND EVEN WATER)
BEST REGARDS FROM
Calvin Tan in Singapore
SINGAPORE BOLEH
MALAYSIA PUN BOLEH!!
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 26 of 26 comments
Beary,
Not necessarily a white elephant
It can be china’s secret weapon to solve the Melaka dilemma
A lot of cargoes might be channeled to this route
You are not stretching your imagination enough
https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-malacca-dilemma/
2019-04-13 10:08
Icon if you are talking about o n g, read this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Myanmar_pipelines
Which made more sense? Transport oil by rail or by pipe?
2019-04-13 10:18
No choice have to continue bec of stupid contract signed by BN govn. If cancel must pay RM 20 billion compensation for nothing. So add RM 25 billion we get new railway line in East Coast like win-win for M'sia-China.
Posted by Beary > Apr 13, 2019 10:01 AM | Report Abuse
This ECRL project is definitely going to be a white elephant which will bleed the nation for decades to come.
The government knew it but decided to proceed with it anyway solely due to the fact that they will have to pay tens of billions of ringgit in compensation to the contractor anyway if they were to cancel it.
It baffles me how so many seemingly smart and educated people can buy into the idea that it is economically viable to unload containers from ships in Port Klang, load them onto trains, send them by rail to Kuantan Port, Unload them and then reload them again to a different ship to continue to its final destinations.
How much time can you save for all that troubles?
1 day? 2 days? I'd say maybe 0 or even delays considering the efficiency level in bolehland.
And how much extra cost involved to go through all that troubles?
2019-04-13 10:20
Don't be too pessimistic
How about other cargoes ? Chips ? Underwear etc ?
Change your name to Bully
Be a bit bullish on everything
2019-04-13 10:21
But don't listen to Calvin advice to buy into all these theme plays too early
Without earnings, price will come down after the fever is over
You will be trapped
2019-04-13 10:23
MMCCORP
https://www.mmc.com.my/MMC%20Annual%20Report%202017%20small%20file%20size.pdf
Based on the original plans, 44 tunnels are to be constructed at various locations spanning over 50km. The longest tunnel (which is now likely to be scrapped) is the Genting Tunnel measuring 17.8km (37% of total tunnel length).
The ECRL is of strategic importance to China because the Kuantan Port-ECRL-Port Klang route shortens its trading route and cuts the time it takes to travel to the west of Peninsular Malaysia while eliminating the need to use the Singapore Port.
..........................
the max reduction from its original tunnel volumes is 37% only, but more importantly it benefits MMC Corp's Port & Logistics division.
you syphon out trades directly from China instead of getting via Singapore Port route
2019-04-13 10:30
https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/malaysia-moves-boost-port-capacity
Increasing connectivity
Improvements to the nation’s ports will serve as bookends for the RM55bn ($12.3bn) East Coat Rail Line (ECRL) – a 620-km electrified rail link between Kuantan Port and Port Klang. At the beginning of November, Malaysia and China signed an engineering, procurement and construction contract for the project.
The ECRL will allow for the rapid trans-shipment of freight across the peninsula, reducing shipping congestion in the Malacca Strait, which hosts up to 80% of China’s maritime trade.
Significantly, the new land-sea link will bypass Singapore and move a major portion of regional freighting activity north. This could boost Malaysia’s profile as a leading logistics hub and open up new routes to markets in North Asia. Work on the ECRL is set to begin later this year and be completed in 2022.
2019-04-13 10:31
Not debts?
Posted by legend > Apr 13, 2019 10:03 AM | Report Abuse
We will be in depth for more then four decades
2019-04-13 10:36
YES thats why CALVIN TAN eyeing malaysia...
Posted by trapped > Apr 13, 2019 10:37 AM | Report Abuse
ECRL bad for S'pore?
2019-04-13 10:40
News says discount of 21.2B from the original price. At the same time, we also read previously that the inflated price is supposed to bail out 1MDB. So at the end really got discount?
2019-04-13 11:16
At 44B cost, let just say the the interest payment will be 2B per annum. Can this project even pay for the interest itself? Multiplier effects maybe provided the local boys get a piece of the cake.
2019-04-13 11:22
Can ferry fish. KL folks will have cheap fishes from east coast. That's what the BN politicians said last time.
Icon8888 Don't be too pessimistic
How about other cargoes ? Chips ? Underwear etc ?
13/04/2019 10:21 AM
2019-04-13 11:34
Good idea ferrying cheaper fishes from East Coast to Kajang, putrajaya and klang
Last time Calvin met a lorry driver in Malaysia
He drove a lorry for decades ferrying fishes from Kuantan to sell in Kl. Then he filled his lorry with goods for his provision shop in Kuantan
This very smart fella later retired early after making a fortune
2019-04-13 12:00
Dato Calvin,
Mind to run a quick check of which mall
Has Negative impact and the benefitted one ?
2019-04-13 12:25
VenFx Dato Calvin,
Mind to run a quick check of which mall
Has Negative impact and the benefitted one ?
13/04/2019 12:25 PM
I live in Singapore since 20 years ago
I think fellow i3 forumers from Kuantan, Trengganu, Kota Bahru as well as Kajang, Mentakab, Bangi, Putra Jaya & Klang can give better answers?
2019-04-13 12:32
VenFx Ok. Notef with thanks to Dato Calvin :)
13/04/2019 12:47 PM
Sifu Venfx
Since today no trading why not share where you from and what you do for a living?
2019-04-13 13:05
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/Why-China-is-determined-to-connect-Southeast-Asia-by-rail
Only once more of the rail link to China is completed, will we see any significant trade benefits.
The ships are definitely not going to unload in the East Coast and pick it up at Klang.
2019-04-13 16:45
I just checked up again on Asiapac Balance Sheet
VERY VERY HEALTHY
1) ASIAPAC HAS RM1.27 IN INVESTMENT PROPERTIES (IMAGO MALL INCLUDED)
2) IT HAS RM300 MILLIONS BORROWINGS LESS CASH
IT IS VERY NORMAL TO HAVE LOANS FOR PROPERTY PURCHASE
IN THIS CASE DIVIDES RM300 MILLIONS BY RM1.27 BILLIONS = 23% LOAN
MANY PEOPLE BORROW 70% TO 80% SOME UP TO 90% LOAN FOR PROPERTY
SO 23% IS VERY OK
ANOTHER THING ALL MISSED IS THIS
ASIAPAC HAS RM700 MILLIONS IN RETAINED EARNINGS
SO ASIAPAC ON ITS OWN IS ALREADY ROCK SOLID!!
2019-04-14 14:22
AND THE VERY BEST IS
ASIAPAC EARNINGS ALL COME FROM OPERATING PROFITS EVERY QUARTER FOR THE WHOLE YEAR
calvintaneng
26039 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > Apr 14, 2019 2:28 PM | Report Abuse X
IF 2 QUARTER PROFITS ALREADY QUALIFY THE GOLDEN RULE
THEN 4 QUARTER PROFITS SHOULD GIVE ASIAPAC "THE PLATINUM AWARD"
2019-04-14 14:30
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Beary
This ECRL project is definitely going to be a white elephant which will bleed the nation for decades to come.
The government knew it but decided to proceed with it anyway solely due to the fact that they will have to pay tens of billions of ringgit in compensation to the contractor anyway if they were to cancel it.
It baffles me how so many seemingly smart and educated people can buy into the idea that it is economically viable to unload containers from ships in Port Klang, load them onto trains, send them by rail to Kuantan Port, Unload them and then reload them again to a different ship to continue to its final destinations.
How much time can you save for all that troubles?
1 day? 2 days? I'd say maybe 0 or even delays considering the efficiency level in bolehland.
And how much extra cost involved to go through all that troubles?
2019-04-13 10:01