THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
OIL & GAS BULL PAUSE. AFTER THIS POOR QUARTER RESULT DUE TO MONSOON O&G BULL RUN WILL RESUME, Calvin Tan Research
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sun, 26 May 2019, 06:31 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,844
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Hi guys,
The recent poor results from Penergy, Dayang & Carimin due to monsoon, have caused a pull back in Oil & Gas Bull run. This is only temporary as BULL RUN Will resume & results for coming Quarters of August & November 2019 expected to be better.
However, we must continue to Focus on those with healthy balance sheet and avoid those highly indebted ones which might be insolvent, then go into Pn17 & finally delist due to high borrowing
WE HAVE ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL OF UZMA
FURTHER FOLLOW UP ON UZMA BY OUR CONVERSATION WITH MANAGEMENT
Last we called UZMA Head Office & these are some updates
1) THE 22 DECOMMISSIONING OIL WELL JOBS WILL TAKE ABOUT 7 TO 14 DAYS PER WELL. EXPECTED COMPLETION FROM JULY 2018 TO JULY 2019
THESE ARE BETTER PAYING JOBS SECURED & PAYMENT FROM PETRONAS IS PROGRESSIVE. PLUS MANY OTHER JOBS ALREADY SECURED COMPANY IS SANGUINE THAT O&G INDUSTRY NOW FACING MUCH BETTER TIMES
2) COMPANY IS ACTIVELY LOOKING FOR MORE NEW JOBS OF VALUE
3) UZMA DOES NOT OWN ANY OIL RIGS BUT IT HAS 9 HWUs (Hydraulic Workover Units). In Malaysia all Off shore but HWUs in Thailand are all Onshore
These are now in active employment
4) UNLIKE BARAKAH – UZMA ASSETS ARE VERSATILE & CAN EASILY CHANGE & ADAPT TO DIFFERENT JOB NEEDS
5) OVER ALL THE OIL & GAS INDUSTRY IS NOW IN UPTURN
CALVIN TAN RESEARCH MAINTAINS ADD ON WEAKNESS.
ANYTHING BELOW 80 SEN JUST ADD MORE
BEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan
Singapore
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
|
|
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
|
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
|
||||
|
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING QUARTER |
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING PERIOD |
||
|
31 Dec 2018
|
31 Dec 2017
|
31 Dec 2018
|
31 Dec 2017
|
||
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
||
| 1 | Revenue |
105,577
|
110,400
|
193,103
|
209,689
|
| 2 | Profit/(loss) before tax |
9,285
|
6,510
|
16,516
|
9,827
|
| 3 | Profit/(loss) for the period |
8,321
|
7,080
|
16,199
|
13,658
|
| 4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent |
8,175
|
6,360
|
15,415
|
12,690
|
| 5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) |
2.55
|
2.07
|
4.82
|
4.14
|
| 6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
|
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
|
||||
| 7 | Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$) |
1.5300
|
1.4800
|
||
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
|
|
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
|
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
|
||||
|
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING QUARTER |
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING PERIOD |
||
|
30 Sep 2018
|
30 Sep 2017
|
30 Sep 2018
|
30 Sep 2017
|
||
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
||
| 1 | Revenue |
87,526
|
99,289
|
87,526
|
99,289
|
| 2 | Profit/(loss) before tax |
7,231
|
3,317
|
7,231
|
3,317
|
| 3 | Profit/(loss) for the period |
7,878
|
6,578
|
7,878
|
6,578
|
| 4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent |
7,240
|
6,330
|
7,240
|
6,330
|
| 5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) |
2.26
|
2.11
|
2.26
|
2.11
|
| 6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
|
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
|
||||
| 7 | Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$) |
1.4600
|
1.480
|
||
FROM NOV 2018 TO FEB 2019
ALL THESE 3 IMPROVED
1) REVENUE INCREASED 20%
2) PROFIT UP
3) NAV ALSO NEW HIGH AT RM1.53 (AT 79.5 SEN : DISCOUNT TO NTA IS A NICE 48%) HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY!!
AND SUPPORT FROM EPF BUYING
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 06-May-2019 | Acquired | 157,000 | 0.000 |
 |
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 30-Apr-2019 | Acquired | 100,000 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 19-Apr-2019 | Acquired | 100,000 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 17-Apr-2019 | Acquired | 100,000 | 0.000 |
|
| EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD | 11-Apr-2019 | Acquired | 79,200 | 0.000 |
AND BEAR IN MIND THESE 3 FUNDAMENTAL FACTS
1) PETRONAS RAPID REFINERY NEEDS EXTRA 54.7 MILLION BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL
2) PH GOVT DEMANDS EXTRA REVENUE FROM PETRONAS TO SHORE UP BUDGET (RM30 BILLIONS GIVEN)
3) OIL AND GAS UPTURN PLUS CAPEX FOR OFF SHORE UPSTREAM NOW AT RM30 BILLIONS ENSURE LIQUIDITY
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 19 of 19 comments
A Summary of UZMA Salient Factors:
1) AT 79.5 SEN WITH NAV OF RM1.53 UZMA IS SELLING AT A NICE 48% DISCOUNT TO NTA. GIVING HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY
2) 22 OIL WELL DECOMMISSIONING JOBS WILL BE COMPLETED SOON WITH EVEN HIGHER PROFITS FLOWING IN
3) O&G IN UPTURN. COMPANY IS BIDDING FOR MORE PROJECTS. KEEP FINGERS CROSSED FOR UPCOMING ANNOUNCEMENTS
4) ALREADY 2 GOOD POSITIVE REPORTING QUARTERS WHICH MET THE INVESTMENT GOLDEN RULE OF 2 SUCCESSIVE GOOD RESULTS
5) PRICE IS STILL UNDEMANDING COMPARED TO OTHERS THAT ALREADY RUN UP
UZMA IS THE VALUE LAGGARD O&G STOCKS YET TO RUN
YET TO RUN?
YESSSS!
UZMA'S TURN WILL COME SOON!!
2019-05-26 19:07
(US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp
>>>>>>>
Current performance of calvin tan research. From date of promotion until he says take profit.
2019-05-26 19:07
One more thing
According to Mr. Bong of Uzma
There are now too many players in the oil and gas industry
So many are bidding for jobs with low margins just to secure some works.
Petronas is happy to save costs
But Uzma is looking for higher profit quality jobs
Chairman has set a Target to achieve at least 35% gross profit.
This is commendable
2019-05-26 20:29
Sell your head!
Qtr of Uzma for May every year is regularly released on May 30th each year
Better buy some Uzma tomorrow as results will be out by Thursday latest
2019-05-26 20:31
The oil and gas industry has too many players. The downturn of 2014 to 2018 will wipe out many players too greedy for over expansion by high borrowings
4 years of job dearth now showed up in many oil entities heavy laden with huge debt load and tethering on the verge of bankruptcies
Long ago there were many companies selling palm oil for cooking.
In a time of consolidation many were wiped out
Those that survived became stronger
Same goes for banking institutions before Asian Financial Crisis
They were 49 banks and credit firms before 1997 crisis
After crisis over many gone bankrupt or got taken over. Only 6 Tier One banks left out of f 49 after banking consolidation. Six banks grew stronger as the pie gets bigger
So now after oil and gas entities like sumatech, daya, perisai, Barakah, Alam Martin, Scomi, and possibly including some others highly indebted ones also going bankrupt...the remaining strong ones will get stronger and stronger
Uzma could be one of them bright star
2019-05-26 20:41
At this time of shrinking liquidity due to
1. Norway Fund selling Malaysian Govt bond
2. Lafarge owner selling out cement operations in Malaysia to local players like Ytl
3. Foreign funds selling klse and leaving
Banks are in dire need of liquid cash
As such they are very stringent with housing, car or any loans for the matter
4. Those oil and gas entities as well as other highly indebted companies will be in trouble borrowing funds from banks.
5. So as a result there will be more private placements with 10% discount to share price to raise funds. In the case of seacera the pp discount was able incredible 30% which showed desperation and panic
6. If no one wants pp then Company goes into Rights Issue. Companies like Sendai might be next to give Rights Issue as well as many oil and gas entities with high debts
7. If everything failed like barakah then it goes into pn17 and final bankruptcy
So it is of utmost importance that we invest in companies with sound balance sheet like Uzma, T7 global, Azrb, Velesto and others
2019-05-26 20:52
Shortinvestor
You are shortsighted
Warren Buffet Berkshire never give dividend yet it is the best on earth
2019-05-26 20:55
As oil and gas theme still in cyclical uptrend just hold tight and buy more on any weakness.
2019-05-27 01:10
Hi guys
Take a very very very careful look at the figures of
Feb 2019 results
Revenue dropped from Rm110 millions to Rm105 millions
BUT profit increased from
9285 from 6510 or an increase of 30%
Well done to Uzma management as they did what they promised
Going for minimum 35% gross profit jobs!!
This is what separates Uzma from other mediocre oil and gas entities
2019-05-27 11:31
calvintaneng Shortinvestor
You are shortsighted
Warren Buffet Berkshire never give dividend yet it is the best on earth
----------------------
lol, you compare warren buffet with uzma ???
are you retard ????
name of warren buffet already worth more then the dividend
2019-05-27 16:06
Hahaha!
Today Uzma comes out top gainer over Dayang, Penergy, Carimin and Naim
All closed in the red while Uzma closed green
Hip hip hooray!!!
2019-05-27 22:29
After "Sell in May and go away"
All will gradually return back to bursa
This is now the best of time to bargain hunt potential growth theme stocks of year 2020
Thematic stocks of year 2020?
What are they?
VMY2020 stocks, of course!!
Now go and do your investigations!!!
Seed time now will lead to a bountiful harvest 6 months or more down the road!
2019-05-28 10:04
WAHAHA!!!
TODAY OIL AND GAS COUNTERS COMING ALIVE AGAIN!!!
ANOTHER CHUN CHUN FORECAST FROM CALVIN TAN RESEARCH
2019-05-30 17:16
Today this prediction is Chun Chun
All oil and gas counters now moving up
2019-06-20 11:54
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Beary
Today calvin tannenen donated 20 bucks to the church.
Next week he will issue buy call to another stock for his followers to chase.
2019-05-26 18:55