THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Lead Story: ‘I stick to what I know best’ (Reposted from Interview with Cheah Cheng Hye by Edge, Comments by Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 23 May 2020, 12:17 PM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
This article first appeared in Capital, The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on March 26, 2018 - April 01, 2018.
THE Edge: Tell us about Value Partners. How did you make your first million?
Cheah Cheng Hye: Value Partners started with assets under management of US$5 million, with only two full-time staff — my secretary and me. Of the US$5 million we managed when we started, about 20% came from me. The money was saved from the bonuses I received while employed by Morgan Grenfell in Hong Kong as a proprietary trader. The rest was subscribed by my partner V-Nee Yeh and other business friends.
How did you make a name for yourself in the industry?
We never thought that Value Partners would become a big company. We love investing, so we thought it would be fun to have a value-investing ‘hobby shop’. If you start a company trying to make money, you won’t make it because you spend too much time thinking about money and not doing a good job.
What are Value Partners’ secrets to success?
At Value Partners, we play several games. No 1 is the game of surprise. We know what will change share prices is the next surprise — a surprise not reflected in the prices yet. Another game is to imagine what the newspapers will report six months or two years from today.
If you can tell me what the front page of The Edge will look like six months or two years from today, I guarantee that you will make a few billions because you know exactly what to do. What you don’t want to do is to read a newspaper published six months or two years ago and invest on that basis, but that’s what most people are doing.
Did you ever get your fingers burnt?
The single worst experience was investing in an airline company — Oasis Hong Kong Airlines — set up by Reverend Lee (Lee Cho Min), a Sunday school preacher. We put in US$30 million and lost the money within six months. Eventually, we got back US$17 million, but still lost US$13 million.
My friend invited me to invest in this Hong Kong version of AirAsia, with only two or three aircraft flying to Moscow and Vancouver. It didn’t work. Unlike in Malaysia, it is difficult to operate a low-cost airline. Lee ended up with a high-cost airline, charging low-cost prices.
I think I misjudged him. There are many stories about getting cheated in mainland China, but I never thought I would have such an experience in Hong Kong. But again, making mistakes is part of our life.
The likes of Dr Neoh Soon Kean, Dr Tan Chong Koay and Fong Si Ling (better known as Cold Eye) are prominent investors who made a name for themselves in the Malaysian investment fraternity. Would you regard yourself as an investment guru?
I don’t like to be called the ‘Warren Buffett of Asia’. There is no definition of investment guru in the dictionary — it is a term used by the media. I would rather be known as the founding chairman of Value Partners. Over the years, I have followed great investors like Warren Buffett and Sir John Templeton. To me, they are the real investment gurus. They are my idols.
Most fund managers want to meet the management before they invest in a company, whereas Dr Neoh insists on being strictly data-driven. Do you prefer to meet people or are you data-driven, or a little bit of both?
I know Dr Neoh in person, I know he is data-driven, but I am too old to change now. I am not a data guy, I am hopeless. I was not born in a time with computers. I hardly know how to use the computer very well. It is just not my thing.
But I am good at evaluating situations with a lot of common-sense strategies. I stick to what I know best. You have a guy who is good at cooking beef curry, another who is excellent in French bread ... they have different specialities but they can produce good food. That’s all we want.
What do you do every day? What are your hobbies?
I spend a lot of time reading emails. I get about 2,500 emails a day, and I may read up to 100 of them. I have to run the company, there are a lot of meetings — I could work from 8am to midnight. I also take some work back home.
I like to play golf and poker. I like to drive. I like travelling. I work out in the gym almost every day. I am still very healthy. I feel motivated. I am blessed to be one of the very few people given this golden opportunity to run a firm that I believe will become a world-class company in the next three years, with offices all around the world.
Tell us why investors should be contrarians.
A contrarian seldom loses money. The contrarian buys when everybody has sold, and he sells when everybody has bought. A contrarian usually buys something that is so beaten up and overlooked that anyone who wants to sell would already have sold. So, by the time he buys, there is no seller left.
On the opposite side, when everyone who wants to buy has already bought and there is no buyer left, prices will have to drop. If 3,000 people want to buy stock, you wait for buyer No 2,999 to buy, then prices will have to drop — that’s the theory. In reality, you will never know who buyer No 2,999 is. But very often, you can guess.
Is share investing still the best way to grow wealth, compared to property, bonds and gold?
Equities are the best investment tool, but shouldn’t constitute more than 25% to 60% of a middle-class person’s savings. Equities are volatile.
What is your advice for youngsters?
We should never forget where we come from. [Don’t forget] our culture, our values and focus on education, a healthy body and a healthy mind. We should make a contribution to family and society.
Calvin comments:
Sifu Cheah Cheng Hye Value Partners is a testament to Contrarian Value investing. His Firm now worth Billions
Listen to his words of wisdom
No 1 is the game of surprise. We know what will change share prices is the next surprise — a surprise not reflected in the prices yet. Another game is to imagine what the newspapers will report six months or two years from today.
Warren Buffet also said we cannot drive a car by looking at the rear view mirror. We don't just look at a Company past records. We MUST LOOK INTO ITS FUTURE PROSPECTS!
Dr Neoh insists on being strictly data-driven.
Correct. Dr. Neoh is data driven. Very systematic just like his mentor the Great Benjamin Graham
But I am good at evaluating situations with a lot of common-sense strategies. I stick to what I know best.
Correct! Common sense. Like Covid 19 world makes Malaysian Glove companies the epi-center of boom. And he sticks to what he knows best. We must invest in our level of competance
For example. A doctor should know what are the most common products used in his profession. Which drugs will be popular and so should go buy those company stocks he knows best
A doctor might not know which Oil & Gas company is the most efficient so he should not venture there.
A contrarian seldom loses money. The contrarian buys when everybody has sold, and he sells when everybody has bought. A contrarian usually buys something that is so beaten up and overlooked that anyone who wants to sell would already have sold. So, by the time he buys, there is no seller left.
This has been Calvin's favourite strategy. To buy when prices are low & stocks beaten down and overlooked. That is the time to get them really cheap
BUY LOW SELL HIGH IS BETTER THAN CHASE HIGH AND HOPE TO SELL HIGHER
Best regards
Calvin Tan
Singapore
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 50 of 60 comments
calvintaneng > May 23, 2020 1:13 PM | Report Abuse
Out of gloves?
No leh.
Bought Supermax at Rm1.73.
Bought Supermax C87 at 34.5 sen
=======
I know....u are calvin........smooth as silk..........
2020-05-23 13:25
Great Plague of Marseille lasted for 2 years
This covid 19 how long no one knows as yet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plague_of_Marseille
2020-05-23 13:36
Spanish flu pandemic lasted for 3 years from 2018 to 2020
Our glove bull run only started in March 2020 (2 months young calf)
See
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
2020-05-23 13:52
Calvin's estimate
Supermax
At young calf stage now Rm5.75 (2 months old)
At young bull stage later by December 2020 will be Rm10.00
Mad cow Fever Stage will be 2021 onward >>> Rm20,000 (Overtaking Hengyuan at Rm19.00)
2020-05-23 13:55
Very early bull stage now for Supermax
AND in comparison to Topglove harta and kossan price to earnings Supermax is superior
It's products are superior
It's market formula is superior because it value add by retailing rather than just wholesaling
Retailing takes more effect compared to easy go lucky worry free wholesaling
By added effort there is added value
Supermax is a compound of 2 words
1. Super and in superior
2. Max from maximum
They doing their maximum best to chase up kossan and harta
2020-05-23 14:55
Calvin, big retailers are controlling the market. At this surge moment the big retailers can’t get enough supplies from their existing manufacturers. So the spill over orders coming to the smaller manufacturers. Once the big manufacturers crank up, the big retailers will have enough stocks.
2020-05-23 16:21
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Calvin still trying to take others success and trying to take credit for it? Oh gosh.
Selling Jesus name to get investing subscriber.
Ñow using value partners reputation to say Calvin invests like them?
https://www.valuepartners-group.com/ftp/files/reports/vpaf/001_fact_sheet/eng/vpaf_fact_sheet_2020-04-01_en.pdf
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp
See the difference between results and claims?
These are Calvin's stock picks. Cannot track his real long term results because he only promotes the stocks that go up and hides the ones that go down. Only buy calls, no sell calls, no position size but everything to buy buy buy only.
How is your real portfolio doing? I heard you sold houses and became the largest 30 Investor in NETX? But of course you suddenly have money to buy glove stocks.
I have stopped even trying to keep track of your promotions because it is already very clear, you are a fraud
2020-05-24 06:58
No Philip you are wrong and just jealous of Calvin's success
Calvin has always been sharing good ideas free of charge
As the saying goes,
"Great minds talk about ideas ;
Good minds talk about things ;
Weak minds talk about people.
You have a very weak mind and therefore a very weak character always talking down on others to jack up your ego. Your are a person with great inferiority complex . That is why I cease to even bother with you
As for Calvin's stock picks many Ogse were Cyclicals when buy calls were issued
Naim at 52 sen when Dayang was 68 sen
Calvin told all to sell above Rm1.00
Carimin was 39 sen and I even told all to sell too early at 80 sen although it rose above Rm1.40
Penergy was 75 sen and Uzma 55 sen
All sold above Rm1.00
These Ogse were all sold in their upcycle
You can see from my website I issue sell calls on both Uzma and Carimin above Rm1.00
So to take Cyclicals as my long term investment is totally not in the full picture
And you were dumb to buy petchemical the Ogse downstream in the Ogse upstream bull run time
Instead of making money and moving on you have wasted much time averaging down your petchem
Those sorchai who followed you buy petchem might not have extra money to do average down and do still stuck with losses
So far Calvin and friends are doing exceedingly well in Glove bull run this year
See these prices
1. Supermax
Bought at Rm1.73
Told fifo group when Supermax was around Rm2.50 that Supermax should reach Rm3.00 due to Sbb(share buy back)
Surprise! Supermax now Rm5.75
2. Comfort glove at 88.5 sen
3. Luxchem at 47 sen
4. Adventa at 57 sen
So many whataspp to say their hearts pounding when adventa jumped over Rm1.30 in just days
5. Es ceramic at 32 sen
6. Mtag at 39 sen
Mtag I just added more at 55 sen after calling them and found booming business
7. Nylex at 68 sen and more urgent call to add below 80 sen as we discovered the newly refurbished Ethanol factory in Fermpro of Perlis
This Nylex will be another Ms Universe stock like Supermax
So just watch all the above how they perform
All who followed Calvin are laughing to the banks
So Calvin got no time to quarrel with failures
Please leave us alone
Thank you
2020-05-24 08:54
The only 2 important takeaways:
A contrarian usually buys something that is so beaten up and overlooked that anyone who wants to sell would already have sold.
BUY LOW SELL HIGH IS BETTER THAN CHASE HIGH AND HOPE TO SELL HIGHER.
2020-05-24 13:22
Calvin is right on some degree.He play on momentum shares.But must know how to see.Me no need glove.Enigmatic urs method need to waits months.Depend on how u buy then boom.I use tht also in prepare for the boom.
2020-05-24 13:29
Here is the website that prove my worth....
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/905919581.jsp?ftp=1
2020-05-24 13:55
Whoa Michael you got so many buy calls
Last year during Ogse and ecrl short bull run I gave many buy calls
Some like naim, dayang penergy carimin and Uzma were really hot
Others just flash in the pan
So this year I more careful
Many whataspp friends highlighted plus my own research caused some buy calls
So this year bull calls revolve around glove bull face mask and sanitizer theme only
So far very very good
Must thank all who gave the leads
Mtag got gloves face masks and respirators was from one good tip
Another one was Nylex when someone mentioned fermpro got ethanol
When he whataspped I asked him to phone Nylex company to confirm . He came back and said Nylex confirmed their ethanol is for sanitizer
So Calvin whataspp all to buy Nylex and the buying was fierce. Nylex went straight up from 68 sen to 91 sen and now retrace to 79.5 sen which I think is still cheap
So hopefully this year buy call will all hit bull's eyes
Looks like the healthcare bull run is more Powerful then the Ogse bull run
All are on cloud nine
2020-05-24 15:10
I went to Melbourne and passed by nylex factory before,looks like very old building....hehe
2020-05-24 15:13
Apollo
I think the nylex in Australia is not the same as Malaysia
Same name but different company
2020-05-24 15:15
dato cheah is very kaya but his mum stayed with her daughter in macallum street only until she passed away a few years ago
2020-05-24 15:16
Now Ogse bull run was powered by Petronas upstream capex worth about Rm30 billions
At that craimin up from 21 sen to over Rm1.46
Penergy up from 34 sen to Rm1.86
Dayang up from 50 sen to Rm3.01
All up 400% to 500%
For gloves the tier one only up 100% to 200% except for careplus which I avoid because it has high debt
So there is still way more upside to go up especially Supermax which I bought at Rm1.73
Now only up 200% to Rm5.75
I think Supermax should go up by 500% to 1000% eventually before this superbull ends
If Ogse powered by just one company Petronas in Malaysia with only 33 millions people can propel stocks up 500%
Glove bull powered by Entire World Governments of 7 billions people should go up much much more than 500%
This is a once in a century bull run for Gloves
Those who missed are just too dumb
Those who sold too early also will regret later
Those who bought?
A Big Congratulations !!!
2020-05-24 15:29
Flush with winning money.Better thn buying 4d.I have a feeling Nylex will be on rm 1.60-rm 2 range.
2020-05-24 15:37
Apollo blind gambling and investing are two very different thing
One got no direction but pure luck
One is solid investment with calculated risk
Investing has an edge like Howard Marks say making the odds in our favour
Just like when I bought Comfort gloves at 88.5 sen
On the same day rubberex was traded at the low of 82.5 sen
Comfort passed my test
For rubberex I saw its accounts were better but 2 things held me back from buying
1. Rubberex is not pure exam medical glove so I went to buy Supermax instead
2. I suspect Rubberex got con job in China when they closed the vinyl glove factory there with a big loss of Rm60 millions
But to my bid surprise Rubberex with less good fundamental also shot past Rm2.00
So I missed it by being too careful
Never mind it also turned out that I am correct on both comfort and Supermax as they performed much better than rubberex
2020-05-24 15:54
4d stands for 4 dumb things
1. Too dumb to use the brain. Investing need common sense by using the brain
Covid 19 panic buy glove will go good for glove stocks
So simple
2. Dumb to know More people lose money in 4D than winning.
The statistic proved it. See how Genting highland prospered
Gamblers are sure losers
3. 4d even if you make the money will just make you lazy and low down in character
Rather than earning honestly you look for free meals
4. The worst is this
Anyone one who strikes 4D eventually lose more later
Greed will suck them till bankrupt
So 4D = 4 x dumbo!!
Should close 4D betting permanently
Of course the Stock market could also turn into Gambling like chasing gpacket and other greater fool stocks with no fundamental
For investing there is real growth and value
So there is a thin line between investing and pure gambling
2020-05-24 16:06
No. I did not buy Supermax at Rm1.30 although lowest was Rm1.29
I only started buying Supermax at Rm1.73
Later I bought Supermax C87 at 34.5 sen
Both are good entry price then
2020-05-24 16:11
you bought 100 kinda stocks 50 win 50 lost,is like u gamble for syok only,your remisier kaya not u.....better go to casino can gamble like that
2020-05-24 16:12
No lah
This year only bought around 10 types of stocks only
Mostly on gloves, facemask, sanitizer
Then Nfcp
And Ecommerce
These three groups are the very best and safest
2020-05-24 16:15
so many counters mana can win one.....I pick only 1 or 2 counters to hentam only,the rest I just gamble for fun
2020-05-24 16:16
only 10 stocks? hahaha, I saw u posted more than 10 stocks....u know uncles and aunties bought 4d also same like your tactic 100 numbers each time like u hold 100 kinda stocks.....hahaha
2020-05-24 16:17
Warren Buffet holding 30 or more stocks
Now I only got less than half of him
For Sifu Peter Lynch he rotates into 2000 types of stocks over and over again
This year no need
Investing in healthcare theme just too easy due to covid 19 pandemic
Just buy sit still and do nothing
Sustain your patience great movements take time to develop
2020-05-24 16:20
Some he just wrote for commission only lah....(Not that he buys for himself)
2020-05-24 16:21
they r billionaires u r not? hahaha.jeff bezos only hentam 1 stock and is the richer than warrant buffet
2020-05-24 16:22
This Supermax is really amazing
It was Rm1.73
Then it broke Rm2.00
From Rm2.00 to Rm3.00 quite slow
But once broken Rm3.00 it went to Rm4.00 quite fast
And even faster run-up from Rm4.00 to Rm5.00
Still do nothing and just watching it go up and up
2020-05-24 16:24
why u no call me to buy at 1.73 but tell me to buy opcom at 60cts,redtone a 48cts,luxchem at 76cts?
2020-05-24 16:26
Superman still not flying straight to USD38 kah?
........LONGEST GREEN CANDLESTICK IN BURSA - YET TO BE UNVEILED
2020-05-24 16:27
Philip ( buy what you understand)
I highly doubt Calvin can even buy a lot. He said he sold his 8 houses and become top 30 shareholders in NETX, his buying price w as 1.5-2 cents.
He definitely promoted more than 10 stocks. I count his blog promotions alone at 27 for this year, meaning this Christian promote 27 stocks but only 10 make profit so he Trump those up.
His investment in NETX of 10 million apparently, he is a major shareholder so the glove theme he promote most likely only bought with 100 lots play for fun.
If you read his glowing reports on NFCP and how he will get the 30 billion tender etc... He obviously is no longer commenting so much.
>>>>>>>>>
calvintaneng No lah
This year only bought around 10 types of stocks only
Mostly on gloves, facemask, sanitizer
Then Nfcp
And Ecommerce
These three groups are the very best and safest
24/05/2020 4:15 PM
2020-05-24 16:32
Lessons from observational studies 'the fall of utopian golden ages' by medieval wisemen: Doom for a nation or civilization is approaching :
- when ministerial, managerial and GLC affairs are entrusted to those who have nothing to do with their experience, intellectual or human quality
- profanation of education, backward education
- spread of corruption have caused a situation when today those who occupy managerial positions have neither the necessary education nor qualification nor moral cleanliness
- politics has turned into a dirty affair
- The times of distorting mirrors; and substitution of values are to come for humanity, when “...liar’s words will be taken as the truth and words of an honest person will be taken as lies
- Treacherous will be trusted, times of vacuous speeches
- times of the increase of sudden deaths - the age of strokes, heart attacks and other cardiovascular diseases that cause sudden human death due to a cardiac arrest among MPs
- follow the materialistic way of the west; and the pursuit and indulgence in luxury
- when people abandon fighting for a good course to stop the evil
- when power is in the hands of paltry, when those of high status among you indulge in lechery, and knowledge is in the hands of vicious
- increasing national debt, poverty rate and bank loan
- when people won’t care whether to earn their living in a permitted or forbidden way. All jobs are good, just choose according to your taste.” Nowadays, the situation in the world is such that the ends (gains and profits) justify the means. People no longer care which way they earn their living, relying on the “winners are not judged” principle. However, what is the price of such “victory”, and how do people pay for it later on? Their life motto as robber = Not guilty until you are caught. Even if caught, still many ways to escape through a corrupted police and judicial system
2020-05-24 16:35
Apollo
Philip is just too stupid to sell his top gloves so early
He better go buy more of his seba and yinson
So don't bother
2020-05-24 16:39
Don't bother if u are right.Its like one my stock the latest AT.I promote AT 2 times at second half last year.Its went from 5 cents to 9.5 cents.Then I promote AT again on 2.5 cents after ex for right.Buy AT on April 2020.Boom it's went to 6 cents on Mei.Before that,there negative name calling.Dear.There are on big regret.
2020-05-24 18:44
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
patrick8
Now have mostly Super, and a sprinkling of Kossan.
Keeping a toehold on Comfort since uncle is so confident.
Anyway, to each his own but just be weary.
2020-05-23 13:24