Dear Friends

Peter Lynch mentioned Cyclicals which I like best

These are 3 Cyclicals

1) YEAR 2019 Bull Run was OIL & GAS STOCKS CYCLICAL

OGSE Cyclical Bull Run when Petronas Pumped in Rm30 Billions for OGSE Upstream

So Upstream Maintenance Companies went into a Bull Run. Dayang shot up from 60 sen to over Rm3.01 (Up 500%)

But by early 2020 Oil Prices dropped & Petronas pulled back Capex

Those who blindly chased Cyclical Dayang at peak over Rm3.00 suffered the most losses

So for Cyclical the "signal" to buy was when Oil price turns up & Petronas Increased Capex for Upstream by Rm30 Billions

That was when Dayang still cheap at 60 sen but few people wanted

By the time Dayang turned into "Hot" stock & everyone went GaGa that was the most dangerous time to chase

Lesson learnt?

OK Let's move on

YEAR 2020 GLOVE SUPER BULL TRIGGERED BY COVID 19

Year 2020 Coronavirus started from Wuhan & spread world wide

The spike of covid 19 was followed by the spike of Glove sales

So Cyclical Glove received Strong Demand

Demand SO GREAT but supply was unable to meet demand

That was AN EMERGENCY

So Gloves were PREBOOKED & PRESOLD UP TO 9 MONTHS AHEAD

PEOPLE PAY UP TO 50% UPFRONT FOR FUTURE GLOVE DELIVERY UP TO 1 YEAR  AHEAD FROM JUNE 2020 TO JUNE 2021 (GUARANTEED PROFITS AS SALES WERE LOCKED IN WITH HUGE CASH DEPOSITED COLLECTED UPFRONT)

But Three Things Happened

1) Many many wannabee new glove companies sprout up in Malaysia. Everyone one wants to join the lucrative glove bull band wagon to prosperity

2) Then with New Euphoria the Glove Taikos went into OVER-EXUBERANCE & WILLING TO SPEND BILLIONS MORE TO BUILD MORE NEW GLOVE FACTORIES WITH NEW FOUND BILLIONS IN CASH. This was OVERDONE for REGRET LATER ON HINDSIGHT

3) AS NEWS OF NEW GLOVE BILLIONAIRES SURFACED FROM MALAYSIA ONE BY ONE

CHINA THE GIANT IS AWAKENED

AS WELL AS THAILAND (WORLD BIGGEST PRODUCER OF NATURAL RUBBER NOW)

SO BOTH NATIONS WENT INTO OVER-DRIVE PRODUCING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GLOVES 24 HOURS A DAY

REMEMBER: THE POPULATION OF EARTH IS LIMITED TO 8 BILLION PEOPLE

SUPPLY FROM MALAYSIA, THAILAND & NOW ESPECIALLY ARE UNLIMITED

NOW GOT 350 BILLION GLOVES

LATER 1 TRILLION GLOVES

MUCH LATER 10 TRILLION GLOVES

A 100 TRILLION GLOVES??

8 BILLION PEOPLE ON EARTH IF EACH DAY OF THE YEAR (365 DAYS)

IF EACH GOT TWO HANDS WILL BE

80 BILLION X 2 X 365

= 5 TRILLIONS (BUT CAN CHINA MAKE 5 TRILLION GLOVES?)

NO NEED AS CHINA HAS WON THE COVID 19 WAR

SEE

China reports zero local symptomatic Covid-19 cases for first time in weeks

SO SINCE CHINA NO NEED GLOVES THEY ARE DUMPING THEM ALL TO OTHERS

THAT IS WHY GLOVE ASP MUST GO LOWER & LOWER

LATER LIKE FACE MASK GLUT GLOVES MIGHT EVEN SELL BELOW COST AND STARING AT LOSSES

Cheap imports of masks from China push US manufacturers to the brink

Cheap imports of masks from China has pushed the US manufacturers to the brink as production plunges

Cheap imports of masks from China has pushed the US manufacturers to the brink as production plunges.

American manufacturer Premium-PPE has seen its monthly mask production plunge nearly 90 per cent from last year's peak, falling to 4 million to 5 million, reported Nikkei Asia.

Premium-PPE is among the US mask makers losing out to Chinese rivals that Dillie and his peers accuse of flooding the market with products priced below cost -- a problem that connects to debates over national security and the cost of self-sufficiency, wrote Taisei Hoyama.

Premium-PPE sold electronic cigarettes before pivoting to disposable masks in March 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic spread like wildfire in the US. With medical personnel having to reuse masks in the face of a grave shortage, its products flew off the shelves.

Each box of masks declares the products are "Made in USA" in large letters, as a mark of quality. Demand has not vanished, even with the country's progress on vaccinations. But few consumers are willing to spend 10 times as much for an American alternative to a Chinese-made mask, reported Nikkei Asia.

The US has nearly 300 million masks sitting unused in warehouses, and producers are going under one after another, according to the American Mask Manufacturer's Association, which includes small and midsize companies.

SO THE GLOVE BULL CYCLE IS FINALLY & GRADUALLY OVER

WHAT"S NEXT?

PALM OIL OF COURSE!!

WHY PALM OIL?

BECAUSE PRICES OF CPO HAS GONE UP MORE THAN 100% FROM BELOW RM2,000 A TON TO OVER RM4,200 A TON FOR MORE THAN 6 MONTHS NOW

ALL PALM OIL COMPANIES ARE MAKING MONEY LIKE NEVER BEFORE

SO PRICES & EARNINGS UP FIRST

LATER WILL COME

GOOD RESULTS

GREAT RESULTS

FANTASTIC RESULTS

FOLLOWED BY DIVIDENDS

SPECIAL DIVIDENDS

HAPPY BUY OVER NEWS LIKE KLK TAKING IJMPLANT AT RM3.10 FROM RM2.20

AND FREE BONUS ISSUES

FREE BONUS ISSUES?

BUT MANY OTHERS ARE ALSO GIVING BONUS ISSUE (EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE LOSS MAKING COMPANIES??)

THEY CANNOT

BONUS ISSUES ARE ONLY GIVEN IF COMPANY IS DOING EXCEPTIONALLY WELL

A HEALTHY TREE CAN BEAR GOOD FRUIT

A HARD WORKING SUCCESSFUL WORKER DESERVES A BONUS

SO THE NEW FANGALED PERIL OUT THERE ARE COMPANIES WITH ZERO OR NEGATIVE EARNINGS GIVING OUT BONUS ISSUES TO "GORENG SHARES" ARE JUST TOO DANGEROUS

AVOID THEM BY ALL MEANS

THERE ARE TRAPS

TRAP NUMBER ONE

1) SYNDICATED STOCKS DESIGNED FOR PUMP & DUMP GIVE BONUS ISSUE TO LURE IN GAMBLERS

ONCE UP THEY DUMP ALL TO GAMBLERS

TRAP NUMBER TWO

2) NEW INVESTMENT & RUMOUR OF M&A

ALL THESE HAVE NOT SHONE PROFIT YET

IN FACT THEY WILL INCUR EXPENSE & WILL SHOW UP NEW FEW QUARTERS AS LOSSES

TRAP NUMBER THREE

3) ONE OFF GAINS FROM ASSET DISPOSAL

THIS IS NOT RECURRING EARNINGS BUT ONLY A ONE TIME GAIN FROM ASSET SALE

YET PRICES ARE PUSHED UP TO TRAP NEWBIES, SOTONG & WATER FISH

A CYCLICAL HAS SOLID REAL EARNINGS WHILE THE GOOD TIMES LAST

SO MUST LEARN TO INVEST EARLY BEFORE THE UPTURN OF CYCLICAL WHEN MANY ARE STILL BEARISH

NOT WHEN CYCLICALS ARE AT THE PEAK & HOTTEST

WE REPEAT

SO MUST LEARN TO INVEST EARLY BEFORE THE UPTURN OF CYCLICAL WHEN MANY ARE STILL BEARISH

NOT WHEN CYCLICALS ARE AT THE PEAK & HOTTEST

REPEAT AGAIN WITH US ONE MORE TIME

SO MUST LEARN TO INVEST EARLY BEFORE THE UPTURN OF CYCLICAL WHEN MANY ARE STILL BEARISH

NOT WHEN CYCLICALS ARE AT THE PEAK & HOTTEST

DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

NOW HEAR PETER LYNCH SPEECH CAREFULLY

Peter Lynch excellent ideas are below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3jzbKW24jw