THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

WHY SINGAPORE ANALYSTS ARE MORE BULLISH IN PALM OIL THAN MALAYSIAN ANALYSTS WHEN SPORE HAS NO PALM OIL ESTATES, Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Fri, 25 Mar 2022, 11:56 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,705
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Dear friends of i3 Forum,

Everyday I read Singapore News First since I live in Singapore. After that I will read Malaysian & Foreign News

One thing greatly surprised me is WHY SINGAPORE ANALYSTS ARE MORE BULLISH IN PALM OIL THAN IN MALAYSIA?

Singapore is so bullish on Palm oil when it does not even have a single Oil Palm Estates while Malaysia is the 2nd Largest Producer of Palm oil in the World?

 

See these News from Singapore

Wilmar deserves to trade at a premium to plantation peers’ P/E multiples: DBS

Khairani Afifi Noordin

 

With minimal earnings downside risk, Wilmar International deserves to trade at a premium to its plantation peers’ PE multiples, says DBS Group Research analyst William Simadiputra.

In his March 21 report, Simadiputra says Wilmar’s packaged consumer products’ margins and earnings can help to buffer its earnings performance when commodity prices reverse.

“The consumer downstream business should continue to bear good margins and ROE in the future, especially when Wilmar’s consumer products division’s performance recovers from higher cost pressure via efficiencies or price hikes,” says Simadiputra.

 

DBS ups Bumitama Agri's TP to $1 as it sees strong earnings prospects in FY2022

 

DBS ups Bumitama Agri's TP to $1 as it sees strong earnings prospects in FY2022

 

DBS Group Research analyst William Simadiputra is keeping his “buy” call on Bumitama Agri Limited (BAL) with a higher target price of $1 from 75 cents previously as he sees the company’s strong earnings trend continuing in FY2022.

Furthermore, the counter is currently trading at an undemanding FY2022 P/E of 7.8x, which is well below its average P/E multiple of 9.7x.

“We believe BAL’s positive 2022 earnings prospects are not priced in yet, as it is still trading at a single-digit P/E multiple,” writes the analyst in his March 21 report.

CALVIN COMMENTS

I OWN BOTH WILMAR, BUMITAMA (IOI CORP IS IN TOP 30 OF BUMITAMA WITH 31.4%) & GOLDENAGRI SHARES OF SINGAPORE

I HAVE FOLLOWED THEM OVER A YEAR PERIOD. INDONESIA WITH ALL ITS HIGH LEVY, TAXES & RECENT CURB OF EXPORT FOR DOMESTIC USE THESE PALM OIL COMPANIES ARE JUST OK

BUT CALVIN SEES MALAYSIAN PALM OIL COMPANIES HAVE FAR BETTER EARNING PROSPECTS AND LOWER P/E

THEN WHAT HAPPENED?

1) EPF HAS BEEN SELLING PALM OIL SHARES ACROSS THE BOARD - A REAL MYSTERY. IF EPF NEEDS MONEY IT SHOULD JUST SELL OTHERS AND NOT PALM OIL SHARES. WHY EPF SOLD PALM OIL LIKE KLK, IOI CORP , SIMEPLANT, HS PLANT, UNITED PLANT AND ALL THE OTHER PALM OIL SHARES THEN BUY INARI, YTL-POWER AND OTHERS WITH LESS GOOD PROSPECTS?

THIS IS VERY UNFORTUNATE AS IF MALAYSIA IS ASHAMED OF ITS PALM OIL INDUSTRY

 

2) IB BANKERS ISSUED TOO MANY PALM OIL CALL WARRANTS TO BET AGAINST PALM OIL

SEE

 

 
 
 

THESE DERAVATIVES ARE CALL WARRANTS ISSUED {NOT BY KLK CO) BY IB BANKERS TO BET AGAINST THE RISE OF KLK. 

THAT IS WHY THEY ONLY GIVE "NEUTRAL CALL" AND SOME EVEN "UNDERWEIGHT" PALM OIL TO CAUSE PEOPLE NOT TO BID UP KLK SHARE PRICES. WORST THEY EVEN SHORT SELL KLK IN THE HOPE THAT KLK PRICES COULD BE SUPRESSED AND CALL WARRANT HOLDERS OF KLK WILL LOSE ALL THEIR MONIES ON EXPIRY

THIS IS A DISTORTION OF PRICES BY MANIPULATION

ALSO NON OF THEIR NEWS LETTERS (THOSE WHO ISSUED CALL WARRANTS AGAINST PALM OIL) TELL THEIR CLIENTS TO INVEST IN PALM OIL SHARES SINCE THEY HAVE "VESTED INTEREST AGAINST PALM OIL"

 

3) MEDIA

THE ,MALAYSIA MEDIA INSTEAD OF INTERVIEWING PALM OIL CO (OVER 40 LISTED CO) PAID LITTLE ATTENTION TO PALM OIL BULL RUN

HEADLINES LIKE

"PALM OIL FUTURES EXPECTED TO GO DOWN NEXT WEEK"

"MISTRY HAS SAID CPO PRICES WILL FALL DOWN BACK TO RM4,000"

AND OTHER SUCH USELESS AND HARMFUL NEWS FOR PALM OIL INVESTORS

SO THIS HAS CAUSED MANY TO MISS THE "ONCE A CENTURY PALM OIL SUPER BULL RUN"

 

WARMEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your Remisier/Fund manager

 

Note:

We bought Golden agri at 14 sen and now up by over 100%

SEE

Market Summary > Golden Agri-Resources Ltd
0.32 SGD+0.0100 today
 
 
 
 
 

 

We also bought BUMITAMA at 46 SEN

NOW UP 65%

 

Market Summary > Bumitama Agri Ltd
0.76 SGD+0.0100 today
 
 

SINCE IOI CORP OWNS 31.4% OF BUMITAMA IT SHOULD BENEFIT AS WELL

BUT WHY THE SELL DOWN OF IOI CORP IN MALAYSIA?

SO?

SO IOI CORP NOW SOLD DOWN IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY

 

HOWARD MARKS WHEN HE FIRST STARTED INVESTING THROUGH HIS OAKTREE INVESMENT SAW "FUNDS" SELLING HUGE POSITIONS

SO HE BOUGHT & BOUGHT WHILE FUNDS UNLOADED

ONE DAY HOWARD MARKS BECAME A BILLIONAIRE

 

THERE IS NO BETTER BUY ON EARTH NOW THAN PALM OIL

FOREIGN FUNDS ARE NOW IN MALAYSIA BUYING UP PALM OIL SHARES

SEE

FCPO Apr 2022 6,564.00 6,619.00
+105.00
957 6,648 6,514.00
FCPO May 2022 6,179.00 6,302.00
+106.00
5,350 37,705 6,196.00
FCPO Jun 2022 5,919.00 6,031.00
+88.00
23,896 70,21

 

ACCORDING TO PALM OIL INDUSTRIES THE COST OF CPO PRODUCTION IS RM1,600

TODAY APRIL 2022 CPO FUTURE IS RM6,619

 

SINCE COST IS RM1,600

IF CPO IS RM3,200

PROFIT IS 100%

 

IF CPO IS RM4,800

PROFIT IS 200%

 

IF CPO IS RM6,400

PROFIT IS 300%

 

IF CPO IS RM8,000

PROFIT IS A WHOPPING 400%

 

WE ARE TALKING ABOUT GROSS PROFIT

NET PROFIT DEPENDS ON EACH INDIVIDUAL PALM OIL COMPANY PERFORMANCE

WITH SUNFLOWER OIL RUNNING OUT FROM UKRAINE, CANOLA OIL ALSO NOT MUCH STOCK, LA NINA IMPACTED SOYOIL FROM SOUTH AMERICA IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE THAT CPO PRICES CAN REACH RM8,000 OR HIGHER FOR A PRO-LONGED PERIOD TILL END 2023

More articles on THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Discussions
8 people like this. Showing 40 of 40 comments

calvintaneng

Very good

imvestor77 first to click likes

So few likes palm oil can only mean there is still lots of upside for palm oil bull run in Malaysia

2022-03-26 13:39

AlsvinChangan

singaore analyst only bullish on SGX listed world biggest Indo palm plantation

2022-03-26 13:49

calvintaneng

Why?

Singapore listed Palm oil companies have operations in Kalimantan, Sumatra, Riau Islands and In Nigeria

There are lots of restrictions like high levy, high taxes and export curb for domestic use.

inspire of so many handicaps they thrived and share prices still bullish

Why then Malaysia with better fundamental and prospects are so neglected

Is the a misplacement of value and great mispricing?

So much so that FOREIGN FUNDS ARE GOBBLING UP MALAYSIAN PALM OIL SHARES ON CHEAP SALE?

2022-03-26 13:59

calvintaneng

Inspite of so many disadvantages Spore palm oil shares in bull run

Singapore analysts are bullish on palm oil

Malaysian investors better wake up and don't miss the palm oil Superbull

Singapore is ahead of it's time and See Clearer with Sharp Vision

So we should not miss the Once a Century Palm oil Superbull run

2022-03-26 14:02

enning22

it is wrong to say malaysian investors are not bullish on plantation stocks, but many prefered to buy lower priced companies ,like fgv, jtiasa,sime plant , boustead plant etc, even TDM. for example among these people is kyy. But alas, kyy listed those low priceD stocks ,But we see these to be mismanaged ,and give low monthly FFB ,cpo production. Still may be , If lower risk ,while luckier and can be more profitable.

2022-03-26 14:10

smartly

ah calvin,
goldenagri i whack 99 liao.....can up 60sen ?

2022-03-26 14:28

calvintaneng

Smartly

goldenagri can be like Bplant, Thplant and Jtiasa expected to reach peak bull at Rm3.00

if Rm3.00 it would mean goldenagri will reach S$1.00

Not immediately of course.

It will take time

and time is the investor's best friend in a bull uptrend

2022-03-26 14:32

calvintaneng

Posted by enning22 > 43 minutes ago | Report Abuse

it is wrong to say malaysian investors are not bullish on plantation stocks, but many prefered to buy lower prices companies ,like fgv, jtiasa,sime plant , boustead plant etc. Among these people is kyy. But alas, kyy listed those low price stocks ,we see these to be mismanaged ,and give low monthly cpo production. Still may be , more lower risk ,if luckier and be more profitable.

Read very carefully the Heading

I say ANALYSTS Not Investors as a Whole

If really bullish the Analysts will rush head over toe to Upgrade Palm oil one by one

The Media will do highlight on Palm oil every day

Why analysts & media so quiet?

2022-03-26 14:52

calvintaneng

Very good

Palm oil bull slowly picking up

Now 3 persons clicked likes

investor77
BLee
L2

2022-03-26 15:16

enning22

they see many trees, so can't see the woods. other reason could be the war between ukrain/russia could keep investors wary.

2022-03-26 15:23

calvintaneng

THEY SEE MANY TREES, SO CAN'T SEE THE WOODS?

EXACTLY!!

WE "SEE" GLOVE AT STAGE 8 AND WARNED. MANY FAILED TO SEE & LOST 60% TO 90% IN GLOVES

NOW TECH IS ALSO GOING TO FALL LIKE PRECIPICE WHEN US FED RAISE INTEREST RATE 6 MORE TIMES
THOSE CHASED TECH WILL LIVE TO REGRET LATER

PALM OIL ONLY STAGE 5 & LONG WAY MORE TO GO UP

WHO CAN "SEE" PALM OIL SUPERBULL COMING?

SEE
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2021-05-08-story-h1564345486-From_Permafrost_to_Precipitation_Calvin_Tan_Research_At_what_stage_is_G

2022-03-26 15:36

BLee

Uncle @calvintaneng, since you asked why, let me give my humble opinion.

1.Palm oil retails very much control in Malaysia as the price can be as low as RM2.50 for a packet of 1 litre. CSR, how to make money?

2. Land is still cheap in the outskirts of Cities, especially agricultural land.

3. Labours are still an issue for plantation, one of the reasons for shifting investment to our neighbouring countries.

4. Palm oil output cannot be increased so easily as tree maturity takes time.

5. Palm oil (margarine) is an alternative to Butter or other products due to pricing. If pricing is the same, there is no more an advantage..

I am NOT against Palm oil as there are many more advantageous which I am not discounting, you have my support.

Thankyou for your efforts..

2022-03-26 16:04

Sslee

Who is actually subsidized retail cooking oil and your pump price at petrol station for diesel and petrol?

2022-03-26 16:36

Wizman

Bro calvin, u are indeed passionate in research palm oil industry & writing good info on palm oil, better than those lousy IB analysts & media. You are 'Guru of Palm Oil'. Keep it up the good work! I agreed with u that Palm Oil Super-Bull-Run 2022-2023 [CPO 6,000-8,000 or more]. I believe this round Palm Oil Super-Bull-Run will create many millionaires...[For those retailers whom can foresee & expecting palm oil stocks rise 100%-500% or even more}

2022-03-26 18:00

calvintaneng

What did BLee wrote?

Should be ok as BLee supports palm oil

2022-03-26 19:49

calvintaneng

O SSLee our friend works as an engineering Chemist in an oil palm company in Indonesia

So he is an authority on palm oil and has given us lots of knowledge about the downstream products of palm oil

SSLee also bought big in Bplant due to its freehold lands and high dividend yield

As to Petrol and one litre Cooking oil sold at Rm2.50 in Malaysia they are subsidised by the Malaysian Govt from taxes collected to help elevate high prices

Cooking oil at Rm2.50 is now far below cost of production as Cpo now Rm6500 per ton

That means Rm6.50 per kg

After refining
Cost of transport
Packaging
Wholesaler profit 3% to 4%
Retailer profit 6% to 7%

Real retail value should be above Rm7.00 per kg or more

So after old stocks are cleared we can expect 5kg cooking oil to retail no less than Rm35 or more to be profitable

2022-03-26 20:49

calvintaneng

Malaysia Govt is helping it's citizens by subsiding Ron95 petrol and Cooking oil in plastic packaging 1 litre at Rm2.50 to help her citizens

This really help relieve the people from such high cost of living

2022-03-26 20:52

enning22

to correct misinformation, Malaysian government no longer subsidize cooking oil price for domestic market, about one year ago.

2022-03-26 22:08

calvintaneng

"The increase in oil prices also boosted palm oil prices, but the government is still providing subsidised one-kilogramme packs of palm oil at the retail price of RM2.50 per pack, although according to the current market price, it is worth closer to RM10,” Johan said

https://web15.bernama.com/en//news.php?id=2064278

2022-03-26 22:22

BLee

Hi Uncle @calvintaneng, just balance the view and answering @Sslee question. As Malaysian, I am happy both O&G and Palm Oil doing well..Regards

2022-03-26 22:22

Investformilkmoney

Just bought 5kg cooking oil at RM29 last week. I was reading somewhere gov was controlling the cooking oil price until March and will give new price later. I am pretty sure gov was subsidising the cooking oil price.

2022-03-26 22:24

calvintaneng

BLee

Hi Uncle @calvintaneng, just balance the view and answering @Sslee question. As Malaysian, I am happy both O&G and Palm Oil doing well..Regards

1 minute ago

This is what SSLee wrote

Sslee

Who is actually subsidized retail cooking oil and your pump price at petrol station for diesel and petrol?

5 hours ago

This is the answer by Bernama

KUALA LUMPUR, March 22 (Bernama) -- The government will continue to protect the people from the impacts of a sharp rise in inflation by continuing to provide subsidies despite rising global oil prices resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war.

National Budget Office director Datuk Johan Mahmood Merican said this was the government's commitment which also took into account the fact that the country is still in the early stages of recovery from COVID-19’s impact.

“The government is maintaining the current subsidy policy to protect the people from price increases and disruptions to the food supply chain, even though the cost for the subsidies has increased considerably,” he said.

Johan said this on Bernama TV’s Ruang Bicara programme titled ‘JaminKerja and Semarak Niaga for Keluarga Malaysia’ aired last night.

He said the unrest between Russia and Ukraine saw oil prices spiking to more than US$100 per barrel, while Budget 2022 prepared by the government was based on the projected or assumed oil price of US$67 per barrel.

He added that currently, Malaysians can still enjoy the RON95 oil price of RM2.05 per litre, which is one of the lowest prices compared to oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia as well as neighbouring countries.

Without the subsidy, the oil price is already touching RM4 per litre.

"The increase in oil prices also boosted palm oil prices, but the government is still providing subsidised one-kilogramme packs of palm oil at the retail price of RM2.50 per pack, although according to the current market price, it is worth closer to RM10,” Johan said.

Apart from that, he said the government had also maintained the price subsidy for chicken and eggs at the cost of more than RM500 million for a period of four months to stabilise prices, thus controlling the inflation rate.

Meanwhile, Johan said the government is confident that it will be able to achieve the projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.5-6.5 per cent as well as create 600,000 jobs through the JaminKerja initiative this year.

He pointed out that last year, 560,000 jobs were created despite the high number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities.

He noted that the unemployment rate had dropped to 4.2 per cent in January 2022 from 5.3 percent in May 2020, a positive indicator all around.

Johan also lauded the Short-Term Employment (MySTEP) programme which provides training and placement in the public sector and government-linked companies (GLCs), saying that the programme provides meaningful work experience and improve employees' skills, helping them to land a job once the contract expires.

“Although employment in this programme is temporary or contract-based, it allows graduates, school leavers and the lesser-abled to earn higher salaries in subsequent jobs because they already have experience with reputable companies or organisations," he said.

The RM1.8 billion MySTEP programme initiative offers 80,000 contract employment opportunities -- 50,000 in the public sector and 30,000 in GLCs and their strategic partners.

Johan also said that with the country entering the transition to the endemic phase on April 1, all economic sectors, including the tourism sector, will be able to boost their business activities with help from the government through the various aid facilities.

-- BERNAMA

2022-03-26 22:27

BLee

Correction: 1 Kg polybag of Palm oil subsidies priced at RM2.50, not 1 litre. Usually control per purchase of only 3 bags. During last CNY, very difficult to find even 1 bag..no plan to stop this subsidies as reported.

2022-03-26 22:35

eagerinvestor

hi calvin, what do you think about bumitama any tp?

2022-03-26 22:52

calvintaneng

Dbs Spore gave a target price for bumitama at Rm1.00

earlier Rhb gave Bumitama a target price of 90 sen

2022-03-26 23:16

calvintaneng

Target prices are only imaginary goal posts

In year 2020 early in the glove bull I set Target price for Supermax at Rm3.00(bought at Rm1.73)

Later changed to Rm4
Then Rm6
Then Rm10

After that all targets broken and Supermax shot up to Rm24.44 peak cycle

So this round if palm oil goes in tandem with sunflower, canola and soyoil plus it's biodisel goes up with surging crude oil prices there is also no telling or forrcasting how high all palm oil shares will eventually rise to

2022-03-26 23:24

enning22

"The increase in oil prices also boosted palm oil prices, but the government is still providing subsidised one-kilogramme packs of palm oil at the retail price of RM2.50 per pack, although according to the current market price, it is worth closer to RM10,” Johan said
-----------------------------
this is fake or outdated news . Local market is sell cooking oil at 30 ringgit per 5 kilo pack. so call 10 rm per 5 kilo pack was ancient history.

2022-03-26 23:33

Investformilkmoney

Below should be latest info:
On July 27, the government set the maximum retail price for pure palm cooking oil in bottled packaging effective August 1, with a guarantee that consumers will get cooking oil below RM30 for a five kilogramme (kg) bottle.


The maximum price of a 5kg pure cooking palm oil is RM29.70; 1kg bottle (RM6.70); 2kg bottle (RM12.70); and 3kg bottle (RM18.70)

2022-03-27 01:06

meistsk3134

nobody invest how the share going up? most investor now put money in tech and oil stock

2022-03-27 01:11

calvintaneng

Nobody invest does not matter

We can just continue to buy more while still cheap

2022-03-27 21:17

calvintaneng

Very happy morning
Jan to March almost up and Cpo stayed firm above Rm6500

These 3 months though Ffb harvest maybe lesser but the exceptional price surge more will still make the bottom line excellent in May 2022 results

Few more days will come April and the next 3 months ahead will be reported in August 2022 results

Looks like times are getting better and better every succeeding quarter and quarter for this Palm oil Bull run time

SO WE WILL STAY THE COURSE!

2022-03-28 07:22

calvintaneng

Spore Wilmar and Bumitama continue to move up after DBS gave upgrades

2022-03-28 10:33

DickyMe3

Singapore analysts are gamblers. That answers the title of this post.

2022-03-28 13:32

calvintaneng

DBS bank is the analyst

The biggest bank in Singapore

And Singapore is among the top financial centers on earth

2022-03-28 13:57

DickyMe3

You mean DBS is the casino owner?

2022-03-28 16:02

calvintaneng

DBS and Spore analysts are more careful and strong just like the Singapore Dollar is strong

2022-03-28 16:09

DickyMe3

You mean as careful as Nick Leeson's case who brought down Barings Bank while in Singapore?

2022-03-28 22:33

calvintaneng

Nothing to do with Singapore DBS as Nick Leeson gambled with Nikkei & went bankrupt

Singapore jailed him

See
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baringsbank.asp#:~:text=Barings%20Banks%20was%20a%20British,had%20an%20account%20with%20it.

2022-03-28 22:42

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