THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
PALM OIL VERSUS CRUDE OIL: WHY PALM OIL BULL WILL LAST LONGER WHILE CRUDE OIL CANNOT, Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Thu, 19 May 2022, 10:39 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,844
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Friends
As the title implies we SEE Palm oil Bull Run will last for few years while Crude oil cannot
Why?
Answer:
Because Palm oil is FOOD. And Food is a neccessity whereas Crude oil is energy
If you life savings boil down to two choices only
1) Eat food
2) Or drive car go sight see
Will you choose to eat food or sight see with the little cash left?
Of course you choose to eat food. Without food can die! Without sight seeing won't kill you
As Nasdaq, Dow Jones and S&P going to CRASH FURTHER Due to BUBBLES IMPLODING Hard times are coming back
Only Consumer staples (nned to have) will survive
Not consumer discretionary (want to have)
SO PALM OIL BEING FOOD WILL CONTINUE IN BULL RUN While Crude Oil high price will not sustain
Hope you SEE what we SEE!
Best regards
Calvin Tan
Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or Consult your Remisier/ Fund Manager
Remember our Chun Chun warning on Tech?
the 3 little pigs & the big bad wolf (Now too late to run for those stuck in Tech)
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 46 of 46 comments
LISTEN SINGAPOREAN THE LAND WITHOUT PALM OIL YOU SHOULD INVEST IN GENTING 3182 NTA=RM8.26 BECAUSE WHATS THE POINT OF MONEY IF THERE IS HYPERINFLATION BETTER TO YOLO ON THE CASINO TABLES GO BIG OR GO HOME OF COURSE THE CASINO ALWAYS WINS BUT SOMETIMES YOU MAY WIN RM5 MIL !
2022-05-19 22:50
No
In Malaysia they already going to ban cigarette to those youngsters to discourage them from smoking
Being a non halal Casino in Pahang State there is always a danger of closer by Pas if there come into power later
Better don't touch Genting as its future is uncertain located in a wrong locality
2022-05-19 22:58
The political landscape is totally different from 40 years ago. If one follow closely the political developments in Malaysia will surely know the risks. In future the casino would totally transformed into a theme park only.
2022-05-20 06:46
Every manufacturing processing, transportation and heating need energy so where do you get these energy from?
An if EU want to cut off the depandent on Russia NG then what alternative source of energy to replace NG?
2022-05-20 06:58
By the way because of low sulphur standard set by the West on fuel that required refiners to invest in billion to upgrade their facilities causing many old refiners closed shop for good.
Hence today the post covid sudden surge of demand for transportation low sulphur fuel result in refining margin (crack spread) shoot thro the roof.
2022-05-20 07:08
Sanctions of Russia NG, crude oil and fuel export are the reason that cause the price increase.
2022-05-20 07:15
calvintaneng
Genting Casino is located in KL side, the theme park is located in Pahang side.
2022-05-20 10:07
PAS can close down the theme park if they capture Pahang state, but they cannot close down the Casino which is located in KL side, unless they win the federal by themselves. Lim Goh Tong already talked about this in his book when they decided where to build the casino.
2022-05-20 10:08
How low is the students geography standard? It is even more unfortunate if someone is a Malaysian. The education system urgently need to be improved, seriously.
-------------------------------------------
OldWiseMan100
315 posts
Posted by OldWiseMan100 > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse
calvintaneng
Genting Casino is located in KL side, the theme park is located in Pahang side.
2022-05-20 10:17
StartOfTheBull
Quote: "Genting Highlands is a hill station city located on the peak of Mount Ulu Kali in Malaysia at 1,800 meters elevation. A large portion of the area is located in the state of Pahang, and another small portion is located in the state of Selangor. It was established by the late Chinese businessman Lim Goh Tong in 1965."
Do you even read? I read the Lim Goh Tong book and in it, he mentioned they purposely build the Casino on Selangor/KL side and the Theme Park on Pahang side.
How low is your IQ? Do you even read books? Or just Facebook?
2022-05-20 10:40
Why the collapse of world economy can destroy demand for crude oil
Petrol from oil is used more in boom times and vice versa in bad times demand just evaporates
Now in 1985 to 1987 when tin collapsed the entire economy of Spore gone into recession
Cars were given up by owners since they got no job and no income
They just surrendered their cars and repossession car yards were full
2022-05-20 10:58
In 1997 /8 during the Asian Financial crisis the same
Driving down Bukit Bintang then was just like driving in a deserted country road
Tnb shares collapsed to the low of only Rm2.80
Only palm oil survived and prodpered then
2022-05-20 11:00
As for Genting it is still located in a majority Muslim nation
More malays and less chinese as future unfolds
Able Chinese migrates and there will be fewer in comparison
So how could a non halal Casino prosper for long?
It is just a matter of time the laws are changed
2022-05-20 11:03
@oldwiseman100
The book was written 18 years ago. Just go to check out the address of Casino De Genting. Simple.
2022-05-20 11:11
The casino licence is issued by MoF and is required to be renewed annually and still it needs a premises business license issued by the local authorities.
2022-05-20 11:30
I think msia will not do away with Casino....looking at the current weak economic position loh!
2022-05-20 11:43
Oil Prices May Not Drop, Even If There Is A Recession
A recession will surely impact oil demand, but it could just weaken its growth, not lead to an annual decline in global demand.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-May-Not-Drop-Even-If-There-Is-A-Recession.html
2022-05-20 12:34
Good vibes loh!
Despite indo lift export ban which mean cpo price will fall......but the cpo price still shoot up mah!
2022-05-20 12:34
Is Palm oil food? I think Palm oil is an ingredient in food preparation; there are other alternatives to Palm oil.
Interesting article of without fuel, no food can be prepared.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/735271.jsp
Extract from the article:
#"Nearby, a long queue had formed in front of a shop selling cooking gas cylinders, the prices of which have soared.
"Only about 200 cylinders were delivered, even though there were about 500 people," said Mohammad Shazly, a part-time chauffeur who said he was standing in the line for the third day to be able to cook food for family of five.
"Without gas, without kerosene oil, we can't do anything," he said. "Last option what? Without food we are going to die. That will happen hundred percent."#
I would not take any side, both are equally important. There are always alternatives, due to human ingenuity, most problems can be solved.
2022-05-20 15:17
CPO Price May Have Peaked, Correction Imminent — Public Investment
Author: edgeinvest | Publish date: Fri, 20 May 2022, 4:27 PM
KUALA LUMPUR (May 19): Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) prices may have peaked as production is seen picking up in Malaysia while demand is expected to be soft in the short term and as Indonesia’s ban on palm oil exports is anticipated to be short-lived, according to Public Investment Bank Bhd on Thursday (May 19).
"A correction for CPO price is imminent. Edible oil prices, which have been soaring since February [2022] due to geopolitical tensions and the recent ban on palm oil exports by Indonesia, could correct by up to 20% if there is no further setback,” Public Investment analyst Chong Hoe Leong wrote in a Thursday note.
Chong thinks the CPO prices have peaked and expects to see correction in the next three to six months.
2022-05-20 16:30
Palm oil peak or not depends on all the other three oils
Sunflower oil
Now stopped by war
Canola oil
Impacted by drought
Soyoil
Also impacted by drought
If others hold up palm oil CANNOT fall much
2022-05-20 17:23
Palm oil outlook is good . So is crude oil . Both are the basic necessities in life and not much you can cut . Crude oil fundamentals are the same as palm oil eg ESG/ climate change curtailed new investment, war and sanctions disrupted supply and logistics etc. oil price will stay high for a while benefitting upstream producers. Refinery margin is 3-4 times higher than the average of last 10 years !
I stay invested in palm oil as well as crude oil . The return from both are fantastic and mid term future are equally good .
2022-05-20 18:05
Differences between palm oil and crude oil
1. Crude oil was formed long ago and now stored in the ground
It can be extracted at will by Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations as they wish anytime to increase production
You CANNOT DO THAT with Palm oil as it has to been planted and production comes by monthly by harvest
2022-05-20 22:44
These is no real shortfall in Crude oil
In fact during early months of 2020 crude oil prices fell to negative
Food prices cannot fall to nagative like cooking oil
2022-05-20 22:45
With climate change there is no certainty that every year's planted seeds will turn into crops as World weather now in havoc
Example is severe drought in Canada, Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina wiping out canola and soybean crops
In others like floods and super typhoons hitting heilongjiang the breadbasket of China in year 2020
Example is the Once a century Flood in Sri Muda, Selangor
2022-05-20 22:49
Crude oil is man controlled as it is abundantly available and extraction can be increased at will
Just like glove glut due to China ramping up production
What man can do with Crude oil extraction and glove production man cannot cause plants to grow as it takes nature to do so
2022-05-20 22:52
Crude oil boom bust cycles are short whereas soft commodities cycles are long cycles
In ancient Joseph Egypt time there were 7 years famine
Ireland experienced several years of potato failure
Even China experienced terrible famines in late 50s till early 60s killing many millions
2022-05-20 22:56
Very good writeup, thank you Calvin and Sslee for your sharing
With sanctions imposed on Russia by the West and OPEC refuses to increase production thus causing the oil price surge. However, high fuel prices eventually leads to lower consumption, less people can afford to move around so high oil price cannot last long.
Look at Sri Lanka, no more petrol available but the people can still survive as long as foods are still available.
2022-05-20 23:51
@Goldberg
Sorry, you miss out a paragraph as below:-
"Nonetheless, Chong said the research house has previously underestimated the extent of the global vegetable oil supply shortage, which resulted in a rally across the commodities. As such, Chong has revised his 2022 CPO price forecast higher from RM4,300 a tonne to RM5,000 a tonne but maintains his 2023’s forecast of RM3,800 a tonne."
-----------------------------------------
The writer admitted that they previously underestimated the extent of the global vegetable oil supply shortage. How likely they will not underestimate again? Let's wait and see.
2022-05-21 00:09
you CANNOT take advise from Research houses except only honest Hong Leong research who is telling the truth
we have see so many times since years 2020 and 2021 Research houses kept up telling people that Cpo will fall back to Rm2600 when it already crossed Rm3500
all were proven wrong time after time as cpo prices continue to surge higher and higher to their chagrin
2022-05-21 00:31
Almost all research houses by virtue of their incessant palm oil call warrants being issued to BET AGAINST PALM OIL that they have to continue PAINT A NEGATIVE PICTURE to DIVERT PEOPLE FROM PALM OIL
2022-05-21 00:33
At the same time they try to manipulate down palm oil share prices in cahoot with media that kept up NEGATIVE NEWS on palm oil
That is why in Malaysia Media and Research houses constantly divert people away from palm oil shares to irrelevant stuff
Not for long as the real EARNINGS OF PALM OIL CO WILL PROVE THEM WRONG
2022-05-21 00:36
People will cut back on cooking oil and palm oil products (eg magarine,cakes,biscuits) whose prices have risen subsantially too (demand destruction), so I don't see the bull run continuing for too long. However CPO prices will probably remain elevated for some time. As for crude oil, my guess is that prices will stay up for a while too. Both were/are supply side issues.
2022-05-21 16:47
Wheat (flour) price rises, rice, corn, barley, soybean, oat, cocoa and many more. What else to eat if also cut back on consumption of palm oil products?
2022-05-21 16:59
Now air fares are also very expensive. You won't die by not traveling but you will surely die by not eating.
2022-05-21 17:07
Increasing crude oil production and increasing refining capacity is not so simple and quick as you may think. Serious lack of new investment in exploration and new field over the last few years due to global warning pressure from all fronts couple with aging existing field will see supply to be tight for years. Oil companies are reluctant to step up capex due to the uncertainty of global warning backlash. Same goes with refining.
I am heavily invested in palm oil . I like crude oil too, especially the refining segment. Both pays off very handsomely .
2022-05-21 18:14
Already superbull....talkkook no point mah!
The best time to invest in a good stock...is when it undergoes a temporary setback mah!
It is time to pick Utdplant mah!
Raider ask use lah!...Which plantation co can pays dividend of Rm 1.05 pa leh ?
Correctloh....very good points mah!
Posted by calvintaneng > 10 hours ago | Report Abuse
Note:
Malaysia newspapers and Investment papers should go interview all 42 listed palm oil companies and update their readers as Malaysia is world number two exporter of palm oil
in stead they shout Cpo prices going up next week. Or shout Cpo prices going to go down next week and such other useless information which are totally irrelevant to palm oil investors.
Ffb was Rm300 per ton in bleak times and now Ffb (fresh fruit bunches) have skyrocketed to Rm1500 a ton (up 500%)
so it is just nonsense to say it will drop by few ringgit this week and up a few ringgit next week
As long as Ffb is above Rm1,000 per ton all palm oil co enters Superbull!
2022-05-22 08:47
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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Post removed.Why?
2022-05-19 22:44