Not i want give, is people ask.

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/much-ado-about-warrants/

Wah, very bising man you guys.

I wrote that about warrants, to be honest, i look at it very differently compared to most people.

Im wholly with icon8888 on this.

raider,

i doubt kyy have more than 100mil, or even 60 mil now.

Still very rich though, to be clear.

....

Well, this is the first time i see people look at warrants like that. I look at it very differently.

Good luck.

Its not provided, merely disclosed, as the court have striked it out before.

if it was provided, it will be stated.

Haha, thats cute.

I3value,

I have not written anything on opensys and have actively discouraged people from using my name in promoting it.

On rce and time. My analysis of the risks and the dangers is easily half the page. Espeacially for rce.

Yeah, they both sure looks like a goreng article. I'm clearly a pump and dumper out to trap your ass and sell my shares to you.

Other people's on the other hand. You would scarcely find even 1 good paragraph on risk, beyond "I'm not asking you to buy, despite writing 2000 words, and structuring this article in such a way that, the next action you would take is to buy"

No idea. I have no idea where my sausages are in one year or so.

If 3 years. Petronm, airasia, pchem, opensys.

Pick one lah.

Honestly.

Why does every discussion here devolve into a pigsty. Not that im innocent in this. Can we be civil for once?

Philip, honestly, like really honestly ask yourself, was Ricky's first comments on ql irrelevant or rude in any way? I don't think so.

However, the sheer vitriol from your end in every subsequent comment is incredible.

I have never seen you acknowledge a single time others are correct or when you were mistaken.



On dayang and David's article. Its simple.

First, track the incentives. I don't want to argue on this anymore. So let's assume he is an angel.

Like all his other articles. It's all just extrapolation of the current to the future.

There is no insight on why current earnings are sustainable, why the growth is sustainable.

No discussion on their competitors, the industry dynamics, barriers of entry etc.

What is fair value? Let's take the current earnings, which are close to all time high, and whack 6x on it, as if, if the next q is loss, the company is now zero.

No comparison on opportunity cost. Even his crelsbld one, take the current year, and say highest margin in the industry. As if the 25m profit on land disposal is also an consistent operational one.

He forget or didn't know, I don't want to speculate.

Why don't I want to write anything on dayang?

Because the entire article will just be asking questions, testing how probable are things and if it's cheap enough given all these unknowns.

Why?

Because I don't know shit about the industry, the competitors, the company etc.

I personally don't know how so many people here can become industry experts in so many industries every year and give such accurate estimates of fair value.

I myself still learn so many new things about industries I thought I am familiar with.

In any event. This is all I will say on this topic. I think I'll stay out of writing in i3 for awhile.

Its a low value add activity. What's the point of disagreeing or playing devil's advocate in a market where people cannot short, and thus any disagreement is directly against everybody's rice bowl.

Because nobody seems to be interested in finding out if they're wrong. Instead, everyone just wants to make sure the story stays convincing enough to support or push up the price, up to the point where their fear overwhelms their greed. Which is a really high price to be honest.

Good luck.

You're being overly simplistic in your analysis of a highly complex business, in an industry with multiple feedbacks.

Do you remember hengyuan, masteel etc.

How precise your predictions are and how incredible wrong they were?

One front runner after another.

One telegram group after another to fry and dump.

Raider,

I don't do adventurous investing or speculating.

You may have also read my timecom and rcecap research.

You say leh?

====
Posted by stockraider > Apr 4, 2019 5:03 PM | Report Abuse

Chivo,

Your think on opensys is actually day dreaming or sound fact findings back by proper research with deep analysis like Raider sapnrg Tp Rm 3.00 loh.....!!

Well Phillip,

i hope you're right, it matters little to me either way. I have no skin in game.

If they do get the SG rail project, well, that's the easiest way to prove their ability.

Even gamuda can't get.

The books are listed on my page, anyone can go and buy or download them for free and read it.

They teach you much better than i can.

Or go youtube watch bruce greenwald teach value investing.

My time, however, is not free. Because my time is my life. Every second we all die a little bit.

I don't give away my life for free or for nothing. Feel free to provide value equivalent to the fee i normally charge.

Why would anyone want to buy my time?

Well, instead of spending roughly 1000 hours reading, i can try to give you the essence within those 3 hours, or the 2 hours a month in a personalized manner, walk through your portfolio etc etc.

Not worth it? That's fine, i would not pay for it either.

Because id rather buy the books and spend the 1000 hours reading them as they teach way better than i can.


====
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 5, 2019 6:58 AM | Report Abuse

Correct lah education should be free mah! At least don't charge so high la! Or else what's the difference between you and the blood sipping fund managers leh??!!! If you can guarantee 100% return and you charge bloody high fees then different case! But you cannot, so at least give some discount!

SOP Cheaper and better i think.

What this company is either a new designer so their stuff will actually be buyable (other than braun Buffel).

Or hit a niche that can actually make it.

I'm thinking about some because of how its cheap-ish, but i dont see management turning around the co so far.

Haha thats nice.

Correct.

However, i think the price is good enough, given the coming growth. I expect it to grow a lot in the next 5 years. and then kind of stop.

if it grows as much as i think it will, i'm looking at a 2PE co in 5 years. Thats good enough for me to whack 5-6% in. And my confidence level on this is quite high.

I definitely don't read that many trade journals. Mind recommending me a source to read to my heart content for most industries? They are so hard to find sometimes tbh.


====
Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 4, 2019 4:30 PM | Report Abuse

If you compare both at the beginning stages, one is doing food industry with export arm, and the other one in ATM industry licensed from OKI that does not allow them to sell to other countries and compete with other OKI franchisers, which company do you think has a bigger chance to grow.

You need to read trade market journals once in your life.

Example:
The estimates for egg market in Malaysia is more than 20 million eggs a day back in 2011, ql estimate selling 2.7 million eggs a day. I have a hard copy of the trade journal I subscribed back then giving me a good idea of my investment terminal value.

I can't find the trade journal copy online, but maybe this will help,

I did, i stand outside for like 2 hours , at the sunway one.

Well, it seems to be mainly hype now, because its so new, and rare, so its abit hot.

But how sustainable is it, and how many places can accommodate family mart and this niche?

Can it grow this segment to deserve the 50 times earnings valuation for me?

No idea. I can't see it. Other people smarter, can see, they go buy loh. This money not for me to earn, if it does turn out to be the case.


====
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 4, 2019 4:41 PM | Report Abuse

Choivo boy, it's not a matter of cheap or not, it's the fact that there's always demand for the items in Family Mart, even they don't sell condoms and cigarettes! You really should go to one of the Family mart and stand outside for one day, then you will really understand despite the high price yet the demand is still so high, there's a reason for it!

Phillip, you may not want to speak so publicly about obtaining p&c information obtained from Jaks.

On the 20 year technical managers in GKENT. I think the question here is, are they the only one with competent and experience technical managers?

Did they design the LRT2 etc because they were good? Or because they were given the contract? Public works contract is usually given due to contacts, not because they are good.

Are GKENT the only construction outfit in malaysia good enough to design, manage, supervise and engineer the LRT2?

No one else was good enough when the contract was given? MRCB no help?

No idea, im not so smart to answer these kind of questions, and its not cheap enough for me. Good luck.

Should do well though, you have sentiment behind your back.

Raider,

The moment you come in, people here start saying bad things d. Even i controlled myself when replying to QQQ3.

but when i see your comment, my reply to Phillip a bit more aggresive d.

Lai lai, everyone lets try to play nice.

The day i can buy wadih and karipap from the makcik using QR, is the day i sell Opensys.

Or the day, hawker centre accept debit card.

Its about momentum, why is visa and mastercard still number one despite QR codes etc?

The momentum is so bloody hard to break. My mom still pay credit card bill with cheque, despite us buying her a computer and offering multiple times to teach her how to use it to make online transfers.


=====
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 4, 2019 4:35 PM | Report Abuse

By the way, do you know how aggressive banks, the main customers of ATMs machines are fighthing their way into the e wallet market????

Do you really think there's a future for ATM markets? I foresee in 10years time we will be buying anything from coffee to toilet paper using e wallets! The fact is that it's just so much more convenient!

I wont be surprised.

It can double profit and still be RM11.3bil in 10 years given this valuation.

i might be completely wrong here, but i honestly cannot see despite going to so many family mart these days.

Honestly family mart is like an inconvenient convenience store. Where is my cigarettes, condoms etc?

And the food, is ok, but not cheap at all tbh. And Mynews food is quite comparable.


=====
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 4, 2019 4:29 PM | Report Abuse

Raider, don't be surprised if QL can be RM 11.3bil in 10 years.

I think this one don't need me. My sister can challenge d. Hahaha

I kid.

Well, you might feel know more on QL, but that that price, i cannot see it as a good investment.

Its quite interesting how you reference your willingness to sell your entire position in QL to buy some other stock.

but not your PCHEM, Yinson etc etc.

I wonder if this indicates something unconscious.

====
Is this the same as your challenge to me about a company that has better prospects long term over 5 years than QL?

I think Opensys should be a 300-500m co in 5-7 years. So.

No need 10 bagger for me. A few of these ill be happy d.

Yeah, which is why i recommend people do one themselves, and see how big the numbers shift with just one small difference.

Its like a telescope, move it one inch and you're looking at a different galaxy,


===
Posted by John_Lee > Apr 4, 2019 1:27 PM | Report Abuse

Jon's definition of terminal value is based upon the perpetuity method. There is another method called the exit multiple. Neither I am in favour of.

Personally, a decent DCF goes up to 5 years. 10 years is pushing it. Anything after 10 years is a cari makan valuation i.e. low reliability. Terminal value involves forecasting into the infinite. Too many variables, too much uncertainties - basically a bullshit valuation prepared by paid professionals engaged by corporates who are trying to cook their valuations.

The same people said the same about SEARS, KODAK, GE, PARKSON etc.

Companies these days spend less than 10 years in the S&P500.

Moat does not mean you don't get destroyed, moat means its harder to destroy you, and you have more time to respond.

====
Posted by qqq3 > Apr 4, 2019 1:25 PM | Report Abuse

choi


valuations are relative but quality companies are absolutes.

You know, its quite a rare moment for me to do a DCF.

Its all about knowing the resilience of its current earnings, and its growth over the next 5-10 years.

And the only way to do this, is to know the company to the bones, or its just so obviously cheap.

And then, it needs to be obvious. Like the standard buffet saying, you dont need to know the weight of a woman to know if shes fat, or the age of a man to know if he's old.

If you're agonizing over whether to buy while starting at the 30th tab of your excel.

You probably don't need to buy it.

But i do recommend people do DCF's a few times, so they understand have a feel for what it consist off, its nature and its weaknesses.

qqq3,

Nobody is asking you to overpay for stocks in bull market. Nothing to buy in bull?

Well study harder, industries have cycles. Nothing to buy?

Sit on your ass and waiting for a fat pitch to come, and swing.

You don't need to be doing things all the time.

Connie,

Considering how thin markets are here, i would think that's not a bad mindset to have.

Just look at the vast majority of articles, and how many people push for "join me on telegram and whatsapp".

You get what you incentivize for. If you write one article, and due to thin Malaysia markets, you can make it pop 5%. What kind of people do you think you would be attracting to this write article business.

Having said that, its a knowledge economy, and in this kind of economy, people like you only if you share stuff and picks.

Maybe i'll write about my HKSE picks. That one whole i3 go throw also cannot move price much. And buy one lot only already USD3-4K.

3iii,

All investment consist of determining what is all the future cash flows from the business, discounted back to present value.

Terminal value is where you do like 10 years worth of dcf, and the terminal value, is the 10 years to infinity, where you whack in a growth rate, and discount it to Present value.

Giving you your total, which now consist of, year 1-10 and year 11 to infinity. Discounted back to present value.

Well, one way to look at it, is that on a EV/EARNINGS of METER Business. You're paying roughly 22 times for the water business and and you get the construction division for free.

You must really believe in their construction division in this case.

I have no idea how competent their construction division is beyond what i can glean, from a friend who works as a quantity surveyor on most government projects.

And GKENT is widely known in the industry as not being that good in infra works, and they only got this contract due to contacts with rosmah and najib. How else would a water metering company get such fat pdp free management money contracts.

All their works are subcontracted out.

Im not experienced in this industry, and its out of my circle of competence, nor is it cheap enough for me to buy a little.

Good luck. I hope your thesis works out.

====
Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 4, 2019 11:34 AM | Report Abuse

I've already outlined my investment criteria and the story If the confirmed growth of the business ( the confirmed award of 11.8 billion). As I am also involved in the subcon tender negotiations, I have a clearer idea of the new margins being discussed.

As for the "tiny division", I really don't know what we are reading the same company. Its tiny division generates 133 million in revenue a year and 26 million in earnings, which I believe is half the revenuess of RCECAP, at many multiples less implied risk. This is currently 1/3rd of its business, which will include hospitals, water treatment plants and railway tracks.

I also get 6% dividends every year.

But I digress, you probably know much more about the company you have than someone who has worked with its engineering team before. In fact many of its technical team that I worked together with on the Miri water treatment plant, the biggest in East Malaysia at the time, are still with the company today.

But even if I said that the project was open tender, and a good number of the work was done competitively and handed over on time and in good condition, and Penang was very happy with its WTP projects, many would not believe me.

But I guess time will tell on all the investments to see what works and what doesn't.

Scientex, Aeoncr, Pbbank. Nestle etc.

I can probably think of a few.

I never understand the term "defensive investing".

All intelligent investing is about determining the intrinsic value and paying significantly less.

What is defensive investing? Where you are more sure? Arent you supposed to be very sure to begin with?

=====
Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 4, 2019 10:28 AM | Report Abuse

In defensive investing it's probably not so important. But one of my main criteria in understanding growth investing in the first principle of understanding terminal value of a business.

Almost every single case of ten, twenty and thirty bagger in bursa stocks are of companies that can compete in the international market. So far I have yet to find a long term successful 10-20 bagger growing investment that only restricts itself to local markets.

I'm sure there are many ways of investing. But it depends on your risk appetite and your definition of the word successful.

Magnitech, is one for KC i can get behind.

Cost based business with the lowest cost base. I don't see any other countries where the cost can be lower.


The rest, well he has his reasons i have mine. KC did call dayang in mid 2018 or so, banking on increased OSV use.

Phillip,

"Gkent competes SEA with its water meters and water treatment plants."

This is an extremely tiny division whose profit contribution is not worth talking about.

I'm not sure what you really see in GKENT beyond the sentiment punt to be honest. Do enlighten me.

Wah Triple ah,

Isn't it worth RM2 now, since you value via NTA so strongly.

So cheap, got sailang put in 100% plus Margin anot. ==


=====
TheContrarian Compared to Daiman and Selangor Properties' recent SCR, MAA's Offerors have a much lower shareholding percentage and face greater resistance from the greater number of minorities. The Offerors have SO MUCH TO GAIN from the SCR as their MAA shares will triple in value to RM3.53 after the SCR exercise. By doing an SCR, the Offerors don't even have to spend a sen to take over the whole of MAA. No matter how tough it will be for them, it is certainly they are determined to win because if they fail, someone might launch a hostile takeover as MAA is cash rich and over 60% of the shares are in the hands of minorities.
31/03/2019 1:48 PM

I'm one of those weird people who think that great ideas don't come easily and are pretty rare.

And so, I'm not that keen to share them with anyone other than friends, family or my investors.

Nor am I one of those whose confidence in their research is so low, they feel the need to try and fry up the price.

Thanks.

Good luck!

Heavenly.

There is no moat in this co. The industry is one of a cost based on where there is little competitive edge.

if it was selling for less than the cost to start it up, and with a good management in there. Im willing to think about it seriously.

Right now, its selling at 8 times of its all time peak earnings, when Najib was in power and doling out fat contracts with thick margins left right centre.

Now when PH have pushed down all the margins, how much money will it make? Well not sure and the co is not cheap enough for me.

Icon8888,

The howard marks book is really great.

Have you read Poor Charlie's Almanack? Its consist of all of Charlie Mungers big ideas.

If you have the time, you may want to consider reading the historical AGM transcripts of charlie munger's co the dairly journal.

very interesting.

I am not a fan of cypark, as the renewable segment is being built on borrowings, and solar is fundamentally noncompetitive at double the cost of coal, and completely unsuited towards it role as a baseload generator. Solar lives on the pleasure of the government. If yeo Bee Yin say no more subsidies for solar, those plants are going to die in one day.

As for gkent, before the lrt3 etc projects, they were nothing but water meter suppliers, and the occasional building materials to construction co. After they met rosmah, they got all these contracts.

One thing you should note is this. GKENT can't build anything to save their lives, they subcontract out every single thing. Under the PDP model, they just take free money as the management fee.

Now that its no longer PDP, but fixed price, with undoubtedly much lower margins. Would they be able to maintain their previous earnings? I doubt it. How much will it fall? No idea. Would it even turn to loss? No idea.

If they were kerjaya prospek who build everything themselves, i would have more confidence. But they arent.

maybe others know more. But i don't.

Phillip is relatively accurate here.

Econpile needs to drop another 50% before its near the price i would pay.

Weida is privatized d i think.

I think the rubber glove industry reminds me of the early stage tyre industry.

Commodity, not a major cost for car manufacturers or car users.

Have higher end niche ones. To differentiate.

Paperplane,

What is the size of the surgical glove market in the US?

3iii,

Both of them should face npl spikes during recession. Although if you look at aeoncr, it's not that bad.

Business wise. I'd prefer aeoncr as theirs just have so much more room to growth. Motorcycles sales are growing at close to double digit each year.

And the worse off the economy the more people will ride motor. Its easily 10x cheaper including maintainence and fuel.

And the thing about motorbikes. Is that even the poor people don't like to buy second hand. They would rather get a motor bike hire-purchase at 1.5% per month to buy a 5k hike.

Rce, if I'm right. And if the ir didn't lie to me, and less than 1% of the loan book is from contract staff, should be safer during recession.

Because if economy is bad. Gov servants sure won't resign, neither will they ever get fired. And if that is the case, every month your salary cut for me.

But, unlikely to have any growth more than gdp. Esp since govt slowing down hiring.

But given the valaution. Should be ok.

Rce main risk is they don't collect the money in their own, it needs to go through angkasa and the co-ops. So there is a very clear black Swan there.

Aeoncr have a very strong team for collections. Since they rely on people actually banking in the money monthly.

Aeoncr is the better bsuienss I think. More diverse, less black Swan points.

Personally I own both. Rce is alot more than aeon though. But I'm always looking to buy more aeoncr.

Everytime I read 1997 horror stories, I just get goosebumps. I can't even imagine index dropping 80% or more.

It really explains why the previous generation is so traumatised about stocks, and consider it so risky.

Raider.

I really want support you for sapura. But just too hard for me. I'm not smart enough.

Phillip,

On the lower quality borrowers, my view and his is about the same.

I felt its more than compensated by the higher rate. He felt I should probably think about it deeper.

The thing that was a perspective shift for me was the collateral being terbalik.

Well maybe it was just the fact we were talking face to face. Next time then.