Markus,

How much shares you own before the privatization offer is irrelevant. Because you only need 10% to vote against. Holding a controlling stake matters for deterring hostile takeovers and not much else. Foreign funds buy for the sake of making the arbitrage, because SCR's usually don't fail, especially if its offer price is a 14 year high.

If you and your group have 10%, i suggest you get all your shares together and go discuss with management to raise the price a little.

If you were to actually vote "no" at the EGM, and the offerors by virtue of them not having a large stake to begin with, may just decide to not privatize and continue bleeding 10mil a year from paying their own salaries while you get "trapped" when the price is now RM0.50.

It is unbelievably hard to vote out BOD or put a new CEO in without 51% share. Whats to stop them from deciding to continue paying themselves the multi million dollar salaries while you complain online.

Laxey and City Of London, lost badly in Icapital. And TTB is now still pulling 8.5mil a year while the fund is making nothing. Despite Laxey and City of London being the largest investors of ICAPITAL, by far!

Imagine this, largest investor in the company (20%+) and you can't even get a board seat, compared to TTB who does not have even 0.5% share.

Nobody privatizes a loss making and inefficient company at a premium, much less one without a business, especially when it looks like we are on the verge of a global recession.

Why put out all this cash just to privatize a company for no gain to yourself?

On your own end, there is so many cheap companies to buy now, where you can buy earnings, instead of asset. Which is obviously much preferred as we are not liquidators.

I just bought a small position for the arbitrage and will be voting for. Good luck!

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > May 24, 2019 10:40 PM | Report Abuse

The trick is not to buy a company for what it is today, but to buy for what the company will be 10 years from now.

10 years from now, QL will be a juggernaut.
====

I agree with the first statement, and not the second.

Nothing to stop it from growing earnings 5% compounded for 10 years, while the stock price goes up 150% though ;) History may repeat itself.

Good luck. I actually prefer mynews to familymart.

I'm sure the chia's are wonderful management.

but in a world where kraft heinz is selling 7pe or 11EV/EBIT, Intel is selling 10 PE. Or even TSMC at 19 times, TIMECOM at 17 times.

QL is so unbelievably hard to swallow.

Still, the Chia's really do put their money where their mouth is. Good luck to them.

hmm cute.

Optimist will always be able to afford buying any stock at any price.

===
Posted by xuxu > May 24, 2019 10:51 AM | Report Abuse

pessimists can't afford to buy any stock

Well, Connie.

You now know you answer.

Mr Teo,

"(who are the competitors? What are their edge? Barriers of entry? Cost base and competence comparison? Value of services provided compared against competitors? etc).

If you can't answer these questions, you know nothing about the business and the only price worth paying is far below replacement cost/book."

This lesson when i learnt it was not that cheap as well.

I hope you did not have too much in there.

=====
Posted by teoct > May 23, 2019 11:32 AM | Report Abuse

Wow, what a week. Need to go back and study where the mistakes were. Looking at Kenanga estimates for 2019, Dayang going to make less money (net profit) compared with 2018. Profit margin is hammered down to just above 10%.

Anyone can help explain, thanks.

Because profit only go up one mah!

===
Ricky Yeo Best time to revisit David's thesis - https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/lionind/201179.jsp

Skip entire article and focus on this - Annualize = 320mil, discount 20%, discounted annualized profit = 256mil --> Estimated FY19 EPS = 26.5 sen x PE 7-8 = $1.8-2.10.

You see, that is a 100% upside. As for 320 mil? Good luck!
23/05/2019 11:04 AM

I define OTB followers as those who pay the 1k per year subscription fee and stay in the group.

====
Posted by titus > May 23, 2019 9:37 AM | Report Abuse

choivo, nit all otb follower long gone la.....only the premium or vvip subsciber. The ikan bilis might be still stuck. The question is what is the ratio of Vvip vs ikan bilis. 10:90 %.

Otb and his followers are long gone, having sold into foolish hands

https://choivocapital.com/2019/03/10/the-art-of-trading-dayang-profitably-around-koon-yew-yin-and-mr-ooi/

====
Sebastian Sted Power pity all OTB followrs. Need bayar and bear the heavy loss. WAYANG is good counter. 80cents I will buy
23/05/2019 9:08 AM

Otb and his followers are long gone, having sold into your hands.

https://choivocapital.com/2019/03/10/the-art-of-trading-dayang-profitably-around-koon-yew-yin-and-mr-ooi/

====
Sebastian Sted Power pity all OTB followrs. Need bayar and bear the heavy loss. WAYANG is good counter. 80cents I will buy
23/05/2019 9:08 AM

If its a punt/speculation, what you need to know is not the intrinsic value of the business.

But what other people think the intrinsic value of the business, and how is their psychology regarding it.

Teoct,

I don't think you actually understand the business. Because the numbers are all projections of current to the future etc. This is the first time i see someone use bayesian to calculate earnings.

You may feel differently, but for a "know nothing" business, ie business you know nothing about. A good test is this, can you answer the below questions well.

(who are the competitors? What are their edge? Barriers of entry? Cost base and competence comparison? Value of services provided compared against competitors? etc).

If you can't answer these questions, the only price worth paying is far below replacement cost/book.

Dayang is clearly above that. In any event, good luck. I wish you all the best.

Investment Banker or Management Consulting is some of the best when it comes to learning.

If you want to be an analyst, work for a fund, those are more fun.

chshzhd,

Not surprised. 10% convertible bond, is just unbelievably amazing deal. You must be stupid or unbelievably desperate to take it. Its basically giving them the company for free if you don't do incredibly well.

I'm quite happy that they wanted such a rich concession from the other party though, considering the risks. Shows me they got brain.

Malaysia is abit different, in other countries, giving out dividend is less tax efficient, compared to buying back shares, so, for us, its interchangeable with no real cost. but dividend is naturally preferred for most.

I think RCE shares is worth about 2.3-2.7 per share. So i'm perfectly fine with them buying back shares. Nothing wrong with dividends though.

If the share was 2.2 and they are buying it back, well, id much prefer dividends then.

====
Outliar https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/frankly-speaking-why-rce-still-...
13/05/2019 3:29 PM

Most people commenting in this post is millionaire.

More than 10 mil also should have at least 3-4.

Ah boy ah.

I usually agree with people talking too loud, as how do you know if you're foolish otherwise, than when people go whack you due to your stupid statement.

But sometimes, can just look yourself and find out, no need say the stupid thing, hoping someone korek and educate you.

====
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER Research IB > May 13, 2019 8:41 AM | Report Abuse

SO... Are you a millionaire?

Thumbs up to OTB.

Mr Kc, is the only one here where, i actually read all his post in i3.

I have to thank him also for saving me from my foolishness, when i first joined i3, and hand itchy everyday trade left trade right.

Nothing wrong with trading, i just no skill and it don't suit me. KC help me realize it sooner and save me money.

https://www.soyacincau.com/2019/05/10/u-mobile-time-5g-backhaul-mou/

Kind of expected.

I think PFI is around 50m per q. Either way, im fine.

====
KL Tneoh The 1.2 billion peso included Petron Fuel International Sdn Bhd which operate around 310 Petron petrol stations.

Their net profit is around RM25-30 millions each quarter, hence PetronM estimate net earning should be around RM66-70 millions.
09/05/2019 11:47 AM

A dollar saved is 20 dollars earned.

I like the effort, but your thinking and analysis is a bit simplistic.

All Dufu Superinvestors,

"But but, this is wonderful company whose profit and revenue will increase every quarter. Why? Because IT!! and Technology!

Value investing is buying all future cash flows, discounted to present value, at a discount/margin of safety.

This means, one of this fund mangers, believes amazon will be making a ton more money in the future with a high level of confidence.

That's it.

This is an ikan bilis position for me, barely hold 1.5% of my investment funds.

Haha contrarian, im sure you'd prefer 66 sen profit instead of 1 sen. :)

====
Posted by theong > May 6, 2019 9:34 PM | Report Abuse

How many lot was done at 1.07?

I sold mine at 1.07.

Good, go vote it down. Then it drops back to 44 sen. Then we hear everyone here call father and mother.

Nobody is going to offer a higher than book price, for a shell of a company making losses, with at best a gestating business in Philippines that is not guaranteed to succeed.

This isn't MAYBANK that they are privatizing.

走好,不送.

May i know whats your thinking behind AWC?

Icon writing and thinking seem to be a bit different these days. Quite interesting.

I actually find myself going through his old comments for some ideas.

If i had to make a guess on this q results. Should be better, though borrowing likely to increase from govt subsidies not yet received.

Actual market cap is more like 700m, if all the PA is converted, more like 70 pe now. But it will go higher to 90 PE.

Because when compared against competitors CISCO, SAP, SAS etc. ARB sure win all ERP contracts!

Also all the revenue and profit this q is 100% recurring. Its not implementation revenue and profit.

Even if it was, ARB will win 100 more contracts every year to maintain this profit and revenue, and also increase qoq and yoy.

Look at Google, CISCO and AMAZON.

Valuation must be 35, 60 or 200 pe at least.


====
Posted by Ricky Yeo > Apr 30, 2019 8:40 PM | Report Abuse

Common, asset light should be P/E 25x at least.

The question is,

Is it a structural or cyclical decline?

They said profit drop due to supply flowing from ASEAN instead of US due to trade war concerns.

Well, my worry here is, is it this easy to convert or make a refinery that can do what LCTITAN does? Its only been a few months since the trade war concerns really started

How long will it take for this oversupply to end, if it ends?

Does LCTITAN have pretty much no edge? With its only benefit being in a fast growing region?

No idea.

Might be time to buy a bit more. Only bought 0.4% at 4 back then haha.

The way his son thinks does not give me confidence tbh.

Id rather they dispose of the entire business piece meal and give out the money as div.

I can't even see one good business in the company and i doubt the son or the father got what it takes to invest the money properly, whether stocks or new business.

Damn cheap though but for good reason. I wouldn't buy more than 1%, if i do buy.

B & C historically contribute 400mil per year, before un-allocated opex.

Refining is either 0 to 50 mil in a bad year, 150-250 in a good year.

Div. If they have good places to reinvest the earnings at high rate of return, id rather they don't pay div at all.

If they don't, id rather they pay out the div.

Break-even and profit is different kind of number. 7 year to break-even is 15% per annum. I'm fine with those numbers.

Profit per petrol station i don't have the numbers. But their actions and how they do business make sense to me.

====

Posted by antoniomc27 > Apr 25, 2019 1:16 AM | Report Abuse

Sold all my warrants and stock this morning. Thanks for frying up guys!

Close to my fair value. Probably selling off all my warrants and shares soon.

Half wish i bought a little bit more though.

This guy needs to be banned.

I cant be happier, more time for me to buy stocks!

Ah boy,

My top 3 is already 60% of portfolio.

Top 5 is around 80%.

I'm very concentrated, remaining 20% is split over my other small small picks. PCHEM is not a big one for me.

Its not a matter if you are concentrated or not, its what style suits you, i wrote something on diversification.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/163383.jsp
===

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 12, 2019 11:00 AM | Report Abuse

Choivo boy, although I might be younger than you... Concentration is key here! Don't spread and go all over the places... You might want to wait for the official announcement made by Petronas first.. Because then it might drop lower... No point having 50 stocks in your portfolio... You are just going to dilute away all your returns and good ideas! If you can find a good company, you sure can identify the better ones or even the best!

raider, maximum CC charge is 1% per month>

So they need to keep the quality up to that of your typical bank, and save on overhead.

Phillip,

You are right on the rates by credit culture and the margins for credit culture.

What i see is RCECAP covering their backside properly as a bondholder.

They are getting a 10% SGD bond, secured against the loan portfolio, in a market where FD is 1.5 to 2%, secured term loans 2.9-3%, unsecured about 6-7% and SG SME Loan rates of 10.88%. Personal loan in sg is about 7-9%.

If with impairments in, they can get around 6%, which is what RCE is getting from their loans now, except in SGD, which is way better.

I'm pretty ok. I don't really care about what happens to CC, just what happens to the bonds.

And if CC does well, they get to convert it to equity.

A pretty decent convertible bond to me.



As for whether CC will turn out to be good, lets see.

1) Can only borrow up to 6X salary, capped at 50k SGD.
2) Upload singpass and Credit Bureau Singapore Report(which determines your rate and loan amount),
3) Meet loan office for final verification.

Sounds similar to how every bank give out personal loans, except less overhead as most things are done online.

At some point, loans, personal etc will be a lot easier to get.

The current model of borrowing money, that requires me to go to the bank etc etc, does not make sense, as you can submit everything online, and meet officer afterwards to settle.

Now on chasing money, i can tell you now, every credit co in msia and sg, use a third party to chase, unless the amount is damn big, in the event any chasing is needed.

Having said that, i'm talking with management on CC, we'll see.

Every sen in the fund is mine, or guaranteed by me.

Where its not guaranteed, i earn zero. At least until i have a good enough track record, where i think i can charge as i can get above average returns.

I suggest you consider thinking a little before talking.
=====
I also think the difference is because Philips do it using his own money while Choi depends on client money. Much easier to get client money using Choi approach.

I'm very torn now, to top up on this, or buy more of another co i just found.

If only this thing blew up like 2 months from now haha.

Drop abit more and i can increase my 1.5% position to a 3-4% one.

Thanks for the update.

Finally, might be time to topup soon.

Haha, yeah as a min max analysis, it makes sense. Basically asking if the reduction in gearing is worth the reduction in premium.

Nice one!

I'm wondering if we are just looking at different aspects of the warrant.

Still trying to understand this one.

It looks more like a min max analysis, in the event prices go up or down.