Purebull,

Maybe. But when people make statements like that, im not so crass as to ask them to show me their statement of account haha.

I'll just take it at face value, and then from his actions, his thinking and his attitude, decide how probable is it.

There is no difference to me anyway, whether he lied or not. As whatever he taught me, i'll only take those which make sense to me.

Haha you're right.

Well, i'm a bit odd. I argue my points like a fanatic, but the moment a piece of contrary fact is presented, i chaange my mind quite quickly.

In any event, if you don't lay out your points in full for the other party, how are they supposed to show your errors.

RCECAP is still a pretty good one for me, but he definitely illuminated a few things for me to see.

====
value88 What i can see is Jon Choivo didn't really learn much from the ex-banker. When ex-banker gave comments on Jon's top investment stocks and his "accountant" way of investment method, he sort of argued back and defended his stands.
30/03/2019 10:39 AM

I am wondering if i should just close off the comments from now on.

Somehow, people can find a way to argue just about anything.

Paperplane.

Im really studying harta very hard now. But so hard to buy.

Can it grow at 20% or so for the next 5-10 years to deserve this valaution. He is very confident of it. I'm not that sure.

Really difficult. But finding out is the fun part I suppose.

Phillip.

I just take people at face value. In any event, judging by the way he talks, acts and dresses. Confident, knowledgable and humble.

He definitely strikes me as someone who is doing well.

Thanks for the compliment.


Sslee,

Nothing beats life experience. However, I will never be able to live through communism and the birth of the country in my time. And thus I have to read.

Also, some mistakes, I'd rather learn vicariously through the experience of others.

Losing my pants at the age of 35 from adventurous investing or trading is one of them.

For the top 20 this year, if we also took their last year results into account.

I wonder, how many would have made enough to get back the original 100k capital

Ah david Webb, I've not read him before, but a friend recommends him to me, since i'm currently studying the HK market.

Icon,

Like retailers, analyst are also quarter predictors. They are not in the business of understanding the fundamentals of the business.

At this price. Probably can whack abit. I am wonering how pengerang will affect this Co. What's the edge do they have price.

But this price. Buy a few % see lah.

I honestly have no idea on this one.

What is the margins to be expected now? Is Gkent worth half a damn in construction of LRT etc efficiently, or were they just given slack by Najib.

How resilient is the earnings now and moving forward, i honestly have no idea tbh.

The sheer amount of delusional fools here is hilarious.

Yeoh Jin Hoe is quite the individual and businessman.

I personally don't see why he offered so high a price for KJ. Unless he intends to hold tighter control over the can market and therefore get higher prices.

But i wonder if the can market is so small, that holding these 2 cos will be enough.

There KYY goes again, confusing himself as an investor, when he is actually a momentum trader. Albeit one that builds his own momentum.

So basically front running?

I can tell you now. Its not.

Half the profit is from land disposal. The margin is not that leng.

Guys, remember, if you're not OTB subscriber, he is not obliged to take care of you or tell you.

You are his fish to eat. Just nature of markets.

You don't want to be his fish? Pay him his subscription fee and sign up for his weekly update, and make money from the fish who are not his subscriber.



https://choivocapital.com/2019/03/10/the-art-of-trading-dayang-profitably-around-koon-yew-yin-and-mr-ooi/

Or read this, this is free.

TSMC, i think you will like this one as well.

You should.

There is no better aggregator of information for news, family/friend events etc.

No.

Here is why its not correct to share, especially for KLSE and small caps here.

If i were to share about a US stock etc. The market is so huge, and with so many participants across so many different forums, that there is unlikely to be any difference from my contribution, nor from the people who follow me. 100 million is nothing.

I may very well be sharing from the goodness of my heart.

In the markets here, it is so thin, that just a few million ringgit or even just a few hundred thousand, and the price moves, and not by a small amount.

This incentivizes people to recommend all the time, form syndicates etc, to try and fry a stock.

At least 70% of all posts here are "Frying" masquerading as sharing.

I know at least 3 people personally who run these syndicates (more like one guy with a brain, followed by a bunch of fish) with alot of sharing out of the goodness of their hearts.



In any event, if it was worth that much, and you can actually see the value, you would shut up and just buy as much as possible, because its just a matter of time before it went up.

If you actually found gold, say buried in a hole somewhere in a jungle, in a location only you know, would you share it with everyone?

Or just quietly take it, making sure to not let anyone know, until you've taken everything or as much as you dare?

And if you had such a good heart, you would do charity after you've taken most of it.

These articles make me thing you don't actually know your stuff. Nor do you think this is that wonderful of an investment.

Terminal industry etc after all. By the way, the current size of the ATM, CDM market will easily be halved in 3-7 years.

If you're such a good person, go do charity and donate money after making your money from investing. Not going around sharing stock tips.

Also, its a little flattering, but stop quoting my name. I don't like people using my name to give weight to whatever they are peddling without getting my permission or paying me money.

Yes theong,

Because NTA is a the perfect valuation method of a insurance co.

if people want to privatize MNRB, they should pay at least RM4.

Im not saying you cannot do whatever you want to do. I'm telling you you're being foolish.

Shopee burns 250mil usd per annum. Very hard to see, who will win, lazada or who.

Airasia also i guess, the most palatable valautions wise.

For LVMH, you should note, Prada revenue and profit drop 4 years in a row d.

Will this happen to LVMH? Will china be able to come up with their own luxury brand stealing from LVMH? Is the new generation still buying LVMH, or is their growth in prior years just a temporary bump from china.

Hard questions.

Netflix sponsors alot of local content worldwide. but the price though. So hard to swallow.

LVMH at 26 times earnings.

Maybe i guess. No idea.

Most of the scuttlebutt i see, valuations is a bit rich now.

Iqiyi? Loss making as hell. But the largest streaming co in china. Yangxi palace and all.

If you think it can survive say 3-5 years, and after that make extraordinary profit. Can gua.

Netflix, easily the leader in india. But so hard to swallow at this price.

Where is charlest btw, he stopped commenting recently.

====
Icon8888 My 67 remarks is targeted towards CharlesT

There is a story behind it

You can read our comments to find out more
18/03/2019 09:48

This is the comments from Markus from back then. Even he know the company and management is lapsap.

You guys want to take the risk of having to work with a rubbish management, in a rubbish company, that has no edge in the industry they are in, for the next 10 years ah?

Its not like this is SPB where the land value is so obvious, sure can get 10% or 20% more.

Here you have insurance business that at one point got claim ratio of 40% plus.

Take the RM1.1 and pass the headache to the Tunku. He probably need to inject some of his own cash post acq also.

=====
Nov 23, 2017 10:25 PM | Report Abuse

"The lower profit arose mainly from lower underwriting surplus amounting to RM5.5 million (3Q-2016: RM8.4 million) caused by higher claim ratio of 47% (3Q-2016: 36%) mainly from fire, marine, bond, engineering and general account class of businesses....

The Group’s General Insurance business in the Philippines held via subsidiary MAAGAP continued its commendable growth in gross written premium (+13.9%), albeit a marginally lower profit before taxation (-1.7%) for the current financial period ended 30 September 2017, due to higher claims experience caused by catastrophe events that hit the country. "


Wahlao!... CLAIM RATIO of 47% ?!? For every 10 insurance contracts they sell, got claim almost half? Fire their risk management team. Wtf


Apr 4, 2018 05:46 PM | Report Abuse

"RM28.00 million for a potential investment in an independent oil producer in Kaliningrad, Russia. " .... RUSSIA?? Really????? Of all places.... What are they smoking in the office? Although 28 million is not super big amount ,I'm sure it wont be enough for such high risk oil biz, I think they will take a lot of debt to structure such biz deal.
Anyway " the transaction requires shareholders’ approval pursuant to the Listing
Requirements, the Company will seek the necessary approval from the shareholders of MAAG at an EGM to be convened " .... PLEASE VOTE NO to this ridiculous high risk plan . These people are sick or high on something.... gambling company's money in such high risk investment.
Have they not learn from their previous mistakes (Yes, his other company Melewar lost big time in their Siam power generation biz).... or other people's mistake when venturing into O&G (example WTK Bhd blew a big hole and still losing in their O&G venture).
I think we collectively should think of a way to put more pressure to the board. Set up a facebook group or something to discuss

Really cute lah this place. Before the SCR offer, everyone here as if they have lost someone in the family. Everyday pray to god get SCR or privatization.

Now, want to work hard, open whatsapp group and write email, find 16m shares to vote against and break your own rice bowl. Really is too free.

If don't get discount, privatize this kind of co for what? Do charity work is it.

You think Philippines only got MAA do insurance, no competitors?

Yeah, and one of those companies is called MAA.

===
TheContrarian Some companies may be trading below their cash values but their existing business could be bleeding.
16/03/2019 14:43

Yeah go do that. Be persistent and annoying enough, and they may even call it off, and you can then watch it drop back down to 50 sen.

If it works though, congrats, 5% more.

See how foolish it sounds.

===
theong We already started forming minority group.if you own MAA shares and you feel you not getting a fair price on SCR you can join us.
17/03/2019 23:40

If it is good, there is no need to promote. Just diam and keep buying. I'm not sure why you are doing weird things like this.

In any event, phillip is right, the cash industry will have very minimal growth as a whole.

AISB also below net cash.

People don't privatize at fair value, unless they are stupid. They also need to make money.

Realistically, i think Melewar is getting a 20-30% discount or so. Look at their track record, does not exactly belie skill in investment or capital allocation.

The people here trying to get higher price must not be thinking right. This is a 14 year high, of a mediocre insurance company that happens to be filled with cash.

Its one thing to just make noise and grumble, this is normal. Its another to be so stupid as to make noise at AGM and actually vote "No".

The expected value now is 90% chance to make 8%. 10% chance to lose 50%. Positive EV of 2.2%, with high range.

Contrarian,

Stocks below cash now, is so many. Farlim, Sanichi etc etc.

I only held very little, as i had other companies that i considered to be more undervalued, whether in terms of net assets or earnings.

But i did buy a lot more after the acquisition was announced.

Go buy altech shares lah

For most people, i think XIRR is better.

You know your deposits date, and amount, as well as the closing amount.

Just use that.

Mine?

I just stick to the fund unit CAGR. Technically, i just broke even, ie back to fund inception fund unit price.

But in 2018, at least half the fund was placed at very low fund unit prices, not to mention the small margin facility obtained and used near the bottom of the market.

In any event, if and when i have a 20 year track record, whether or not fund unit or xirr is used, makes little difference in the quality of the track record.

In the meantime. My track record is my articles and my thought process when me and my investors meet and discuss investments. As well as whether the investor considers me a person of integrity.

Oh you mean quarterly revenue. I thought you mean profit for some odd reason.

Yeah in that case, you're right.

I'm in no rush though,slightly below GDP growth is more than enough at this price.

Their buyback policy is whenever its below book. At this price, i would rather they buy back even more than ESOS issued. They usually buy less.

Raider.

You cannot deny that SSLEE has his point.

You're always very optimistic and strong in promotion in your stocks. And many did not end up well.

Evergreen
Hengyuan

etc.

May i suggest you be more moderated. If one only talks about the good thing, but not the bad, that says something.

By the way,

Its not 10, its 5 years. Moving forward, i don't expect such strong growth, and if such strong growth was obtained in this kind of industry, i would be selling.

I expect a growth somewhere below GDP, since the govt is slowing down hiring etc. If it was fair value, i would not be as keen. But i'm getting a very nice discount.

Phillip,

The only reason why cigar butt method is outdated, is because they are so few of these companies left, and not much money can be placed in them , especially in the US.

Buffet stopped, because his capital is too large and he did not enjoy the process. Schloss stopped because he couldn't find any anymore.

This is not the case in malaysia. You have fairly profitable property development companies, paying out 4-6% dividend yield, selling for 50-70% discount to liquidation value. its a no brainer to buy some in a diversified, for me at least.

Here are two funds in malaysia/singapore who are practicing it quite successfully with good returns. Yeoman Capital, and Aggregate Asset Management.

In the US, you may have heard of this person called Seth Klarman.

There is no such thing as outdated, when it comes to value investing, just whether it can still be executed.

And this is not a cigar butt for me.

That is one way to think about PE6, but at some point, VITROX, PADINI, INARI were below 10PE PE and yielding 7% dividends.

The goal in investing is to find where market is wrong or inefficient, make your purchase, and wait for the market to correct itself.

Wells fargo, BOA etc also have low-ish valuations compared to the market, despite capital structures being far better than in the previous years.

What is investing but the long term arbitrage between the price of the stock and the intrinsic value of the company?

I think the market is wrong.

On your questions on the company, i know enough to understand the 5-10 year competitiveness of the company and the industry, and at this price, i've got a good enough margin of safety. I don't engage in false precision, and chase after information that have low utility.

See the trees miss the woods and all.

This isn't a 50PE company, where i better be right on every single aspect. Still i do enjoy the process of getting to know the company better.

There are two ways,

Google XIRR for Excel.

Or you use a fund unit method, and calculate the cagr for the fund unit price.

If you notice, using the second method, does not take into account, the investments made when fund unit price is low, so its actually possible to be positive on absolute but negative on %.

=====
Posted by Outliar > Mar 8, 2019 10:46 AM | Report Abuse

My point being that nobody starts off with 100k in the 1st year and say ends up with 1m on the 10th year but never puts in any money between year 1 and year 10, what if he puts in 1k every month and 2k every month in the 2nd year and so on and so forth, how would one calculate CAGR?

Yes simon.

Think of hedging as insurance. If you're rich enough, its better if you dont have it.

But i you can't handle the risk, due to how large the outcome will be compared to your own networth, you may want to buy some.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/179867.jsp

Read this.

Lets talk again after.

Sheldon,

They hedged, but as usual, not in full.

Phillip.

Non executive directors are not entitled to ESOS. The son is the chairman and non executive director.

The vast majority of the shares are given to upper and middle management. I suggest you read the reports a few more times before commenting, or stick to companies you're familiar with.

Talking about ESOS to family members, have you seen's TopGlove's? What do you think of it? Or Yinson's?

Well, i do prefer AEONCREDIT's business and owns some shares. But the valuations are vastly different.

I think that a good enough business, if paid too high a price, turns into a bad investment. A mediocre business at a low enough price, is a good investment.

People just tend to underestimate how low the price needs to be and the fact they are not liquidators.

This is a pretty good business at a great price. Looking at your biggest holding, you clearly feel somewhat differently about that.

Seems ok, the insurance business is not making money.

And they too need to make a profit on this purchase, or they privatize for what?

Information they gave is too vague.

Tax is computed on a company level basis, not group. That amount may be related to a subsidiary that is not making much money. So it may not set off all at once.

====
Posted by (70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip > Mar 14, 2019 08:07 AM | Report Abuse

As at end of this quarter, the Group has an unutilised tax allowance balance of RM99 million which can be utilised for the coming quarters profit.

TOPGLOV paid 30 million in taxes this quarter, I wonder if they will be using a part of this tax allowance to strike off their income tax in the coming quarter to give out all time high net profits and extra dividends?

Yes, the difference is this.

Most co's that give ESOS is not held by a private owner with his own interest in mind, but hijacked by career executives due to there not being one single strong owner with 50% of the stock.

I would rather they give ESOS, that takes into account natural compounding effects of retaining the majority of earnings, or related to ROIC. And to not give ESOS at all.

Since often share prices do not tie to your job performance.

But they are good arguments for. Looking at the performance of the management, I'm ok with the ESOS which is reasonable.

Unless of course, you feel that Tan Sri Hisham, the 67% shareholder, has gone insane and loves destroying his own wealth, by giving out shares willy nilly to outsiders, and that the performance of the company for the last 3 years is pure luck, and the management were just lottery winners that contributed no value beyond their base salaries.

"Topglove is still adding 148 lines this year and next, with 18.4 billion of glove production a year. "


Along with all the expansion being done by the rest of the companies. What is the margin compression you expect for the gloves they are already producing.

Or do you feel that this large increase in capacity, along with the expansion by all other market participants, have close to zero effect on the margins?

Of course, sapura got saved by PNB so, theres that.