HY is still trading at low PER today but it can’t fool the market without any factual to support earnings in the next 6 months. How’s the crack spread now and projected EPS in next 2 quarters? Investors or traders are not fool nowadays.

<<<Posted by Up_down > Sep 12, 2018 07:43 PM | Report Abuse

‘ low PER’ doesn’t mean a good buy. ‘ high PER ‘ doesn’t mean not a good buy. It all depends on potential future earnings and the prospect of the whole industry or regional market. If we apply PER rigidly, we may expose to higher risks. Where got so simple to apply PER approach to make money through trading. Lolz
>>>>


Why was Hengyuan trading at low PE last year just before otb "promoted" it?

What is Hengyuan's PE today?

‘ low PER’ doesn’t mean a good buy. ‘ high PER ‘ doesn’t mean not a good buy. It all depends on potential future earnings and the prospect of the whole industry or regional market. If we apply PER rigidly, we may expose to higher risks. Where got so simple to apply PER approach to make money through trading. Lolz

Future E earnings is important to determine the price of shares now. Without current earnings actual figures, it’s rather difficult to project (not extrapolate) the earnings base on the conditions or trend in next 6 months. We have to consider conditions to monitor the risks in projecting future earnings ie Commodity price trend (raw materials), government regulations, Forex rate, turnover trend, interest rate (gearing), contracts, taxation.....many variables.

You have been following WB for long time. You have never got enough real experienced in buying stocks with low PER. To apply PER in trading or investing, you need to do a lot of homework for comparison of companies within industry, peers, market as a whole and etc. sometimes, we use adjusted PER to exclude exceptional item or uncommon item, reliability of management, working out potential future earnings by considering conditions of the market or industry.....Not so straightforward as you think ‘ low PER ‘ alone for buying shares. It is about relativity whether expensive or cheap in making a comparison with others at a point of time. It’s hard for you to have a full grasp in exploiting PER approach besides theoretically.

Posted by 3iii > Sep 12, 2018 06:25 PM | Report Abuse

Don't use the PE ratio

The price to earnings ratio (PE) s the most commonly used valuation yardstick by investors.

It is very easy to calculate.

PE ratio = share price / earnings per share (EPS)


In simple terms, shares with high PE ratios are seen as being expensive whilst those with low ones are seen as being cheaper.

Despite its simplicity, PE ratio has many pitfalls that can give investors a misleading view of how cheap or expensive some share really are.

The PE ratio's drawbacks are all to do with the "E" or EPS, part of the calculation


1. EPS is easy to manipulate.

Companies can boost EPS by changing accounting policies.

For example, they can extend the useful lives of fixed assets such as plant and machinery, which lowers the depreciation expense and boosts profits.

2. EPS says nothing about the quality of profits.

It doesn't take into account whether profits have changed due to sales of existing products or services - the best source of profits growth - or whether the company has invested heavily in new assets or bought another company (acquisition).

Share buybacks boost EPS by shrinking the number of shares outstanding, even if profits are static or shrinking. Buyback can be done when the shares are expensive. By paying too much, a large chunk of shareholder value is destroyed; the cash spent is wasted.

3. EPS may not resemble true cash profits.

Quite often a company's true cash profits are significantly more or less than its EPS (more often less).

4. EPS may be based on profits that are unsustainably high or temporarily low.

This means that the PE ratio could be misleadingly low or high.

This is a particular problem for cyclical companies.



Summary:

For the above reasons, EPS can be unreliable and you should not rely on PE alone.

Once again, PE has may pitfalls that can give investors a misleading view of how cheap or expensive some shares really are.

Nothing wrong for using PER as a basic benchmark for comparison purposes. This ratio is easily understood by investors. It’s very useful when we want to do priminary screening before get into the details to study further. There are many conditions affecting the share price movement besides PER. Low PER is normally more attractive to investors since it offers certain degree of reliable earnings at the present moment. But business operation may get better of worse tomorrow.

Speedyboy. When majority of Malay becomes more independent, we can expect Malaysia economy to have a big leap. You see Indonesia. There are catching up now even though Malay is majority of the population. Are we waiting Indonesia to overtake us before realizing this facts? Malay can a wonder but it’s just their own leader suppressing their potential through education system.

Resources are deployed mostly for supporting Malay elites rather than serving the needs of poor and improving education quality to enhance competitiveness. Their intention is to create a crutch with an ulterior motive of protecting elites. The government has spent much money in education to churn out graduates unable to meet the demand in commercial business for employment.

Dr. M is suitable PM for the sakes of political stability during the transitional period. He can’t do any reforms for Malaysia. Anwar is a better choice for reforming Malaysia whether political or economy.

Education investment is long term policy. We can’t even see a good results in next 5 years even though major revamp were taken now. Focus in savings alone is not enough for our economy. You may see PH bombard by BN for slow economy growth. What’s the growth driver or momentum for our economy? With such bleak economy outlook, foreign talent don’t even consider get back to Malaysia.

Posted by stockraider > Sep 11, 2018 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

Msian govt don know how to spend effectively loh....!!
Just look at our education....spend so much....still very poor standard loh....better just focus on savings....savings....bcos we need to paydown the debts mah....!!

Malaysia GDP will be heading downtrend soon. The government is waiting our neighbor countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam) to catch up on par with us before moving up further.

Our country top officials keep talking savings for the country through mega cutting projects. It’s a good sign to avoid bankruptcy risks due to overspending. Most people know savings is important and resources needed to exploit effectively. Focus too much in savings won’t bring us to anywhere. Besides savings, what our government can do to attract FDI? Why PH government won’t come out a more favorable policies for foreigners to invest in Malaysia whether direct or indirect investment? By looking at the talks of our PM, I feel our government likes closed door policies for the sakes of their political agenda.

Quantum physics & consciousness

https://youtu.be/HiAj7S6ko9Q

The government should come out friendly policies to attract more FDI. Many big companies are moving out from China. Don’t talk racial politic or lcly scare away foreign investors since our future economy growth is partly contributed by them.

Your area slightly more aggressive than me. My cash level stays at 15% only.

CPteh. Be mindful of what are you doing. After years of talking negative sentiments, hope you have not developed panophobia mode. You keep talking crash regardless of market bull run or bear time. Pity of your real life....don’t really know what are you seeking for other than crash.

I have never said it can be decided entirely by us where we want to go out of this earth. It’s nothing more than a personal or collective belief. I am not saying no good for having such a belief but it’s out reach of our real experience in the earth.

Posted by hoolahoo > Sep 10, 2018 10:22 AM | Report Abuse

Up_down, we do not decide, the one above decide when the time comes for you and me. It's like the The Parable about the Ten Bridesmaids. Mat 25:1-10 At that time, the kingdom from heaven will be comparable to ten bridesmaids who took their oil lamps and went out to meet the groom. Now five of them were foolish, and five were wise, because when the foolish ones took their lamps, they didn't take any oil with them. But the wise ones took flasks of oil with their lamps. Since the groom was late, all of them became sleepy and lay down. But at midnight there came a shout: 'The groom is here! Come out to meet him!' Then all the bridesmaids woke up and got their lamps ready. But the foolish ones told the wise, 'Give us some of your oil, because our lamps are going out!' "But the wise ones replied, 'No There will never be enough for us and for you. You'd better go the the dealers and buy some for yourselves.' "While they were away buying it, the groom arrived, Those who were ready went with him into the wedding banquet, and the door was closed. Later, the other bridesmaids arrived and said, 'Lord, Lord, open up for us!' "But he replied, 'I tell all of you with certainty, I don't know you!"

tksw. I did not say I would go heaven. I don’t know whether heaven or hell exists or not. It is entirely out of my real life experience. What I want is to focus my experience in this earth NOW. I am not interested to know where I go after the end of my life.

Posted by tksw > Sep 10, 2018 11:53 AM | Report Abuse

Up_Down sifu, you go first la...but how sure you can go heaven? it is not you to decide oh.... like come to this world, not your decision to make....

I heard someone said " why we delay our trip to heaven since it is so nice to live? why not decide it now." lolz

Avoiding earthquake or natural disaster... The conditions are not available for everyone to move out before it happens and much depending on their own actions. Where do you want to hide since there are many natural disaster going to happen as predicted? ..bedsides earthquake, there are wild fire causes by weather changes, artic ice melting result sea level increase at faster paces...no ending as earth is not an heaven where you expect stability for long long time. If you accept the reality, you would have a peaceful mind, you won't care much whether it will happen or going to be happened.


≠==============

Precisely,

It is BY KNOWING THAT WE LIVE WITH CONFIDENCE

Like if you drive a fast car make sure your seat belt is working

If you go up in Airplane make sure got parachute

If go dive deep sea make sure got enough oxygen in the tank

If you live till 100 years old make sure you got enough savings to last that long without depending on children or welfare

SO THIS POST HELP IN 2 THINGS

1) MIGHT SAVE THOSE WHO AVOID EARTHQUAKE ZONES

2) SOME MIGHT GO TO HEAVEN IN STEAD OF HELL (www.chick.com)
09/09/2018 20:31

Calvin is living in the fear environment created by he himself. Don’t spread those negative ‘beliefs ‘ la. That’s nothing much different for us to know or not to know. Can we become more intelligent after knowing such a belief or even it becomes reality later? We have to let go whatever that is out of our control. Living HERE and NOW is more realistic. Wakaka

Congrats. Your mind must be more peaceful than others. It’s not easy to overcome fear factor in such conditions.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > Sep 8, 2018 11:53 PM | Report Abuse

yes...yes...

for recent..... specific examples

when layhong was down to 0.52.....many felt hopeless that it would fall endlessly

......I charged in..and it reounds profitably up to 30%

haha



similar in the case of Suoermax, Airasia, TM

(of course ....also MyEg and Dufu before that)

Probability. we can learn and apply Daolism in trading shares in i3.

Posted by probability > Sep 8, 2018 11:35 PM | Report Abuse

now only i read EngProfit comment far above..after seeing up_down comment....indeed its depicting trading accurately. Thanks EngProfit..

Exactly. With this approach, We see danger in an harmony environment. We see opportunity in the chaos conditions.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > Sep 8, 2018 11:32 PM | Report Abuse

100% correct........


(in the yin-yang chart.....black and white parts make up a full circle....

......however.....they are not mutually exclusive....

.......in fact, one can find a small white dot in the black half

and vice versa....

i.e. there is yin element in yang....and yang element in yin

(just like men have oestrogen inside them.....while women's blood got testosterone

haha)

Engineeringprofit. Good one. Your comments inspired me to think further. Ha ha

Chaos. Water represents harmony but it may go through a chaos before turning into harmony. People don’t like chaos due to uncertainty but it is the turn point.

The flexibility of water is dependent on the conditions. Water has no right to control its shape. Not to forget water can turn into a hard object too. Being rigid (hard) is part of the water feature. Water won’t be permanently soft or hard. It keeps changing to suit the conditions at a time.

Facbind & Farlim may suit Calvin taste of cash rich companies.

There’s a strong correlation between Foreign Funds exit and depreciation of RM. Why FF running out of Boleh land like no tomorrow. This is the facts.

I don’t care how much Mahathir ahead of me 1 million or 1 billion. None of my business.

qqq3. Go and figure out how much RM drop since PH is taking over the government. Don’t tell me they talk this that after 1 year. They can’t put a blame on BN indefinitely.

Foreign Funds has disposed more than RM 9 billion since 1 May 18. Don’t know when they will come back Bursa to rejoice again. Ikan bilis susah nak cari makan sekarang.

He is playing racial card to get more support from rural Malay for his own party. Not really good to PH.

Our PM should bosek Trump if he is heading this direction. Ahjib is the champion in doing this kind of job. Mahathir got no fight.

Posted by stockraider > Sep 7, 2018 09:36 PM | Report Abuse

NO TRUE LOH....I THINK MAHATHIR WANTS TO PLAY THE RACIAL CARD & TO WIN THE HARDCORE MALAY NATIONALIST & FUNDAMENTALIST SUPPORT LOH....!!

TRUMP WOULD NOT CARE WHAT MAHATHIR DO LOH....!!

It could be a tactic deployed by PM to please Trump. Hopefully Trump would buy our PM story and encourage more investment in Malaysia from those companies migrating out from China.

Without the participation of Foreign Funds, Bursa will be come a dead water soon.

When Foreign Funds see the development of such situation, they has been running out of the country like no tomorrow.

Nothing much better can be done by PM for our country economy development. He would probably talk this that of former government. The only hope now is Anwar.

PM is getting short sighted when he become older. He seems taking this opportunity playing racial card again. This statement supposed to come out from opposition mouth. His main role is to help Malaysia to become stronger in economy. Najib is actually better in helping economy development but he created 1MDB scandal.

No experience never mind. They just need to get an investment certificate from authorities. No fine for non implementing and nothing much to lose. More important is the company can take advantage of bull market to goreng shares.

Uncle loves IPP so he may buy Ytlpower for its new IPP in Jordan.

Jaks got no fight. This one is much bigger scale with 2,000mw at the estimated costs of USD 3.5 billion. Don’t know where they get money to build it....may be China again. Haha

Toyoink got a same story with Jaks for building and operate a coal power plant Vietnam. Lolz

Reality is cruel. The actual margin from Profit After Tax (North Sabah) is rather low at current crude oil prices unless we are expecting crude oil prices to surge another 20 to 30%.

Malaysia is so lucky for producing number 1 quality of petroleum in the world, Tapis. Brent is far behind Tapis quality.

North Sabah segment
For every 10% increase in crude oil price, the company may have to pay 4.42% of Export duty plus Income Tax. In the end the company can only enjoy 5.58% extra profit from every 10% increase in selling prices.

Bear in mind, North Sabah may have to pay export duty of 10% for petroleum crude oil export from Malaysia plus Income tax levied on PSC is 38%.

GOT IT.

Net tax expenses incurred in the Current Year were due to taxes levied on profits generated from operations, partly off-set by reversal of deferred tax liabilities.

North Sabah segment taxation 25.5 million consists of:
1. Income tax - 49.2 million
The tax regime under which Malaysian oil and gas activities are governed, and is thus applicable to SEA Hibiscus, is the Petroleum (Income Tax) Act 1967 (“PITA”). The provisions of PITA are applied to net taxable petroleum income at the rate of 38%.

HIGH income tax could be partly due to EXPORT DUTY 10% Levied on export petroleum crude oil.

PBT about 40 million x 38% = 15.2 million. Don’t know why actual so high. It could be due to unallowable expenses for tax computation purpose. There’s an increase in Provision for Taxation about 49 million while comparing with Qtr 31 Mar 18.

2. Deferred Tax Assets - 23.68 million
Upon the Group’s completion of the acquisition of 50% participating interests under the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC, deferred tax liabilities are recognised on intangible assets and inventories acquired. This was partly off-set by deferred tax assets recognised on provision for decommissioning costs. The net deferred tax liabilities will gradually reverse, generating a tax credit (i.e. a gain) in the profit or loss account.


Posted by brushsoo > Sep 1, 2018 07:26 PM | Report Abuse

Guess you tabulated the wrong number for tax of NS for the quarter. It is only RM25.5 mil. I encourage everyone to view the video, you can get a better picture of the QR concerned.
Net tax expenses incurred in the Current Year were due to taxes levied on profits generated from operations, partly off-set by reversal of deferred tax liabilities.

Agreed. Bursa is unique and alike a human created by us with collective consciousness of the participants. The mood of Bursa change faster than a girl....very very sensitive. Wakaka

=========
probability another thing is every personality is unique....as so do Bursa compared to other markets...

so one need not study thousands of humans..just to figure out the personality of a person he is about to meet.

just meet..interact..quarrel...make friends...then you know this individual better than all the thousands of books to predict his personality.

Bursa must have a distinct own personality like a girl you want court...

this no book can teach you.
02/09/2018 16:19

The article is informative. It’s rather confusing when the writer used EBITD to calculate EPS. No matter how, we have to use projected PAT for computation of EPS.

Let’s see the QR of Annjoo, MAsteel and Ssteel, all went into longkong. It’s the hope (low PER) and greedy holding investors back from liqudating their positions in LionInd. This is a very high risks bet for ignoring clue given by the market.