养太多懒马，多多天然草都不夠马吃。

Stock: 承你贵言to have higher than 50 cents div in next month.

Gentle Reminder : historically, about 50 cents dividend will be announced on 8/9 Jan and will be ex on 23 Jan. If you are not in urgent need of cash, you may want to wait for the div.

我就快出手收货。

I was almost buying today. At last I did not as I wanted RM4.00 which is 20% down from RM5. I would take risk in buying in this volatile period as I do not think the upside down economy of M’sia has impact to biz of MPI. Contradictory, the depreciated RM is a big plus to the earning of MPI. Whereas the down of crude oil will boost spending power of US and China which are the main markets of MPI.

Hi Alpha: I do appreciate your hard work very much. Indeed, it was your writing attracted my attention to KSL. Please keep up the great job. I support you.

I just cannot find statement from CEO that dividend policy has been set. May you tell me where did you get this info? Tq.

Hi skl_81: We derived 6+% div yield by forecasting its eps at 24-25 cents. Since Tambun said 40-60% of its eps will be distributed out as div, therefore 24cents x 40%=9.6 cents. 9.6/1.56=6.15% div yield. Certainly, if its eps drops, yield will drop accordingly and vice versus.

发展商平均持20%固打单位 滞销土著房产套牢200亿

2014-12-14 08:17
（吉隆坡13日讯）根据房地产发展商公会（REHDA）的调查显示，土著固打制是国内房产滞销的最大阻碍，据《南洋商报》粗略估计，目前至少有200亿令吉被套牢在这些滞销单位！

一位发展商指出，滞销土著单位没有官方统计数据，但根据业界的经验，平均来说，大多发展商手上至少有20%是这类单位。

“整个市场被套牢在滞销土著单位的资金，相等于交易总值至少20%。”

“华人地区或土著固打偏高的州属或地区，滞销情况更严重，20%只是保守估计。”

根据财政部房产估价及服务局旗下国家产业资料中心数据，去年全马商务与住宅房产销售价值总计1076亿2235万令吉，2012年则为955亿5436万令吉。以20%推算的话，去年滞销的土著单位价值或超过215亿，前年则超过191亿令吉。

详文请阅《南洋商报》

小城镇开分店商品符合民情 巴迪尼2大优势抗外敌 2014-12-13

http://www.nanyang.com/node/668552?tid=462

（莎阿南12日讯）巴迪尼控股（PADINI，7052，主板消费产品股）放眼凭着两大优势，在充满竞争且消费情绪低迷的零售市场持续生存。
巴迪尼执行董事陈贵兴今天在股东大会后表示，尽管目前零售市场正被悲观情绪笼罩，但相信这只是暂时现象。
“外来商家纷纷进驻本地零售领域，证明我国的零售市场依旧活跃和具吸引力。”
在2010年入驻我国的日本品牌Uniqlo及2012年来自瑞典的H&M，深受年轻人青睐，但陈贵兴认为，该公司尚有两大优势，以对抗竞争激烈的市场。
“许多外来商家都不会在较小的城镇开设分店，但我们会把城市的穿着概念带进这些小地方，这对当地消费者来说是全新的商品，所以会带动购兴。”
他指出，公司另一个优势是有些外来商家，因需遵从总部概念，而无法根据我国的气候，来为商品类型作出调整，但巴迪尼却可根据我国不同区域的民情，来提供消费者不同的商品选择。
Brands展望乐观
目前，巴迪尼控股旗下拥有名为“Brands”及“Padini”概念的零售店，而只设立8年的“Brands”零售店，截至今年6月杪，分店已达27家，与“Padini”概念29家的零售店相去不远。
“这是因为前者的商品多样化，而我们也可控制商品的售价，所以这几年发展迅速，我们亦乐观看待Brands商店的展望。”
消费税实施后 现有产品不起价
明年4月执行消费税，由于消费者心理受影响，对零售领域一定会造成打击，巴迪尼控股决定不会调整现有产品的价格。
陈贵兴披露：“我们可能只会调涨新产品的价格。”
消费税将会影响消费者的心理，进而影响消费模式，不过，陈贵兴认为这是暂时的。
“个人认为，消费税对消费心理的影响，在明年圣诞节时就会消除。”另外，巴迪尼控股旗下的Vincci因销售额减少，导致公司首季净利跌30.8%，至1920万令吉。
陈贵兴说，因公司的鞋匠都有一定的年纪，加上没有“新血”的加入，导致鞋子款式没办法跟上当今潮流。
“现今，有许多商家都向中国或台湾引进商品，造成更深一层打击，但由于中国鞋子制造时间较短，所以公司已决定重新调整供应链至中国制造领域。”

小Ngo：以下纯属个人关于MBSB的浅见。
即使合並成功，得2.80，那也是几个月以后的事。成功后，MBSB又能去到多远? 在此滙、股、油都动荡非常，接下来几年经济將逆向MBSB的生意的时刻，值得守吗? 趁着只下跌5%，可考虑收回现金。当然以上纯粹是非常个人看法，只供交流。

p/s：个月前，当指数还在1850以上时，我己经把收藏了N年的15张MBSB给丢了。当时並没油价风波，只是不愿为了十多仙的价差等待。祝好运。

小Ngo：最新这通，很有诚意与道理。该深入考虑。谢谢。

Ngo:你來自sarawak吗? 我有个來自sarawak的朋友姓Ngu,我们叫他小牛。他很有函养，彬彬有礼，一边学习一边贡献，与你很像似。他跟我们说在sarawak大家都很有礼藐，竟是土著首长也很尊敬其他少数民族。來了西马, 以为文化水准一定是较高，却很奇怪的，时常碰到野蛮人，可能西马没受教育的外勞较多吧。他有些不习惯。
加油！

何啟斌博士‧“缺美元”流動性危機
2014-12-13 10:47
這幾個星期，大馬股、匯、油、債市都一齊面對拋壓現象，令大馬人民，商家和政府都擔心，接下去的形勢演變會如何？
從目前的形勢來預測，大馬甚至全球的“金融動盪”（主要是下跌）所預示的很可能是重演2008/09年全球金融海嘯所帶來的“缺美元危機”。
這個預測可能會在2015/6年發生。當俄國“破產”時（應當在6個月內），剛巧美國也正要增息，這兩個因素加起來，就很可能造成全球性的“缺美元危機”。美元指標（Dollar Index）現在還是處於90低點，歷史高度在170點，其上升空間極大隨時升到100點。全球基金/資金都快速離開發展中經濟體，回流美國，將造成“美元缺乏”的危機現象。
2009年1月19日，新加坡和韓國都曾經面對“缺美元”流動性危機。這兩個資產豐富，儲備金高的國家，只是缺美元，就足夠令他們“破產”。當時新韓都取得美國的協助，即刻進行“貨幣交換”（SWAP），為他們帶來巨額美元（500億）的流動性，從而解決了“流動性危機”。
大馬當時沒有危機，只是受到全球“金融動盪”的間接打擊。股市綜指掉到821點，令吉也直瀉到3.72兌一美元。這可謂“有驚無險”。但是這次大馬股匯債和油價都一齊面對外資的拋售。最近每個星期都有幾億外資離開大馬，相信這個趨勢還會繼續下去直到明年甚至2016年。除了國際因素：“缺美元流動性”就將要發生外，其他一些重要的負面因素包括：1．大馬主要外匯收入靠石油，棕油和旅遊業，唯都在收縮中，尤其是石油，必將打擊國油和政府的收入。
2．大馬債務過高，雖然外債少外匯高，令吉債券隨時可以被拋賣，換美元而逃。外商認為債務占GDP63%屬危險階段。
3．股市過高“價高市危”，股市本益比已經超過18，雖然不是歷史高點，但相對目前的形勢還是“走之上策”。
4．大馬是石油淨出口國。這是外商最為擔心的，認為OPEC和美國頁岩油商的博弈，將損害產油國。
5．俄國金融危機隨時暴發，將拖累許多商品經濟國包括大馬。
6．日圓劇瀉，美元快速上升，逼使亞洲貨幣競相互貶。這個因素好比1995-1998年那樣：日圓快速下降，導致亞洲危機。
大馬和許多亞洲國家所要面對的是：如果預測準確。2015-16年會暴發“缺美元危機”，是否會重演1997-98年亞洲金融危機，或再度暴發2008-09年由次貸造成的全球金融海嘯？
從危機理論的觀點來分析將發生的危機，可以取得以下的結論：1．1997-98年危機的背景和今天接近。日美貨幣轉換：日圓下美元上。不同的是當時全部危機國都“高外債缺美元外匯”，還有美國副財長興風作浪，炒家肆虐。現在多數國家都擁高度儲備金來應戰。就算有危機缺美元，美國可以隨時出手協助。
大馬的情況不同，外商認為我們過度依賴石油外匯收入。
2．2008-09年全球海嘯來自歐美銀行危機，波及亞洲。這次的危機來自發展國家，尤其是俄國和許多石油出口國。大馬屬這一群經濟體。現在全球（除了美國）都在拼QE（量化寬鬆）。單單這個因素就足以導致美元上升的形勢。這個形勢的後果就是發展國家貨幣競相貶值，包括大馬的令吉。外商看到以上的形勢，就開始先拋售而導致最近的劣勢。
以上的分析可以結論：將來臨的危機，不會像1997年的那樣壞，令吉跌至5兌一美元，股市綜指瀉至262點，利息高漲到13%，許多掛牌公司從此破產消失，許多著名的企業家，也翻船從此絕跡商場。
1998年大馬國家“差點破產”。這次絕對不會發生。不過缺少美元來周轉是絕對可能發生的大事。
最重要的是這次絕對不會有政治危機，類似1998年的印尼排華，或大馬發生的嚴重政治危機和最後的資本管制政策。
問題是，這些可能的金融動盪會在甚麼時候發生？其破壞力會到甚麼程度？令吉、股市、債市和油價會到甚麼價位？大馬應當如何應變？商家又要做甚麼準備？（星洲日報／言路‧作者：何啟斌博士）

點看全文: http://opinions.sinchew.com.my/node/34988#ixzz3LkE1pOOL
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如果股市再继续跌，你的故事就准确。只怕有些股民选择不管三七二十一先臭骂你一顿。而我肯定相信你的故事。关键在于我能跑得几快、狠心跑得多远。
谢谢分享。

Agree that it is a level to buy with spare money for div higher than fd.

Firebird2: I have an opinion that the upcoming bonus Is serving as an pseudo buffer or support to the price of ksl temporarily. But seeing most the properties counters affected badly, ksl should not be spared, if not now, it would probably be after bonus issue unless broad mkt u-turns to north then.

Someone commented in this forum that ksl is to give consistent high div now on, but I read news report on The Star weeks ago that it's ceo refused to commit on div policy.

If it's price drops much lower, I would follow you and bet for its div although it refused to set a fixed div policy.

Frankly, I do not know much about ksl, hence cannot comment much. Good luck.

Firebird2: may you share the reasons you like ksl more than Tambun, matrix, Mkh?

The later three have dropped ~10-25% so far, do you think ksl will drop at the same magnitude to 3.20 - 3.90?

Good luck.

KFima at 35 cents? It must be many yrs ago. You are great in catching KFima at unbelievable low price.
My entry price is 1.50 in 2010. The return till today is so so only. I do not hold a lot as I have a concern in its mgt team with full "horses"..........
Thks.

Great article always attracts great comments as those of KC's article. Thank you very much for the high quality opinions and views. You have positively contributed for a better community. Thks.

冷眼在某文章说过，何博士的文章必读。何博士文章不一定凖，却可提高戒備心理。谢谢博士。

Friend: yesterday is the last day of entitlement. Price has been adjusted down for 2.5cents this morning. Any purchase on today will not entitle for div.

If that heppens, many people including myself will be in deep shit. I pray for it not to happen. Ah Men !

Not 1300, it was 300 in 1998 when capital control was imposed.

If RM falls to the minimum magnitude of others i.e. 20%, see you at 3.72(3.1x1.2=3.72). How will the market be then ?

If you are strong enought, why worry about people writing/talking negatively about you?

I have been a long term investor for the last couple cycles. The results proved that it does not practically work well for me. When the bull roars, I saw paper profit escalated (shiok sekali); while bear stampedes, I saw the paper profit went away and then the capital shrunk. The profit and loss just swing up and down, and there is no real gain in long term.

Long term investment may work well for others but definitely not me. Just quote the latest examples where few blue chips such as CIMB, GENT, GENM, MBB were held for many years( ha long term), the return is not rewarding at all. You can work out the % return by yourself if you want to. Long term investment is also very stressful when bear stampedes where your value of investment shrinks each day along with the bear.

In this perspective, I definitely do not advocate short term speculation which I think is very risky and is not my cup of tea.

My point is that one should not trade shares according to short waves(periodical fluctuation), but if the wave is obviously big, it is wiser to follow the wave instead of confronting it. Certainly, big or small wave is purely dependent on your experience.

Good luck. Thank you and it is nice to meet you again, Mr. Wong.

Regarding timing the market, I agree with you that no one has crystal ball in predicting the movement of the market else there would not have beggar in the street already. Nevertheless I believe in quote that history may not repeat itself but it does rhyme. Base on the my limited experience in the market, I choose to time the market this time that it is going down south further, therefore I have lately disposed lot of counters with some profit and some loss. Most importantly, I want to prepare war chest to catch bear if it really comes at last. If my prediction goes wrong and the market rebounds strongly herewith, I am willing to lose the opportunity.

Sometimes, we just have to take a bet. This is also tally with the saying that Share Market is a mix of science (calculate value) and art (emotion bet).

Systemic risk. When bear stampedes, all counters will be affected with those relatively better managed counters drop in lesser magnitude than those not so properly managed counters.

In relation to this micro perspective on systemic risk, should we time the market in share investment to maximize return?

Bought some at 1.97 so that I can receive annual report and incentize myself to monitor its biz closely. If there is no vested interest, sometimes just lose track.

可惜多数股市热血视您的意见为冷水，尤其是几周前1850时。现在倒是有点害怕了。但是内心还是很期望翻盘，然後再战江湖。这是股市的魅力，令人爱不释手，无以自拔。

Mr Lim: you strike bingo too. ＂我写的东西跟ttb的为人没有关系” I have no comment on TTB personalty.

我鼔吹百花齐放、却绝对不赞同傲慢自大。

Stock: bingo! You know the game very well.

Mr. Lim: You are well respected because you are willing to spend your precious time to response and share your opinions with others although some may not agree with your points. Obviously I disagree with your points but I do respect you. Thks, Mr Lim.

百花齐放:比喻同一事情的不同做法、同一内容的不同形式或同一类东西的不同品种丰富繁多。

Lim said: “….but the bad thing is he is self-serving”

May I ask : base on which criteria you judged that he is self-serving. You(27.04%) may disagree with his strategy and performance of the fund, but don’t you agree that at latest as at now there are 72.96% do not think like you that he is self-serving.

Lim said:” If you simply idol him….”.

May I ask : why are we not allow to support his way of mgt, strategy and the performance of the fund ? Why should we be labelled as hero worshipping/idolization when we stick to what we believe? With the same logic and just make a switch on your perspective, don’t you think that you are practicing what you are commenting now where you are “idolizing” yourself now?
That is what I mean that 3 fingers point toward ourselves when we point 2 out.

DeepMarine: I will surely vote for him and drive my friends to AGM free of charge to vote for him. He may not be the best, but at least he is clear and rationale enough to judge his biz(the mkt). A person who knows what is he doing with rationale is much better than many already.

I have doubt on Cost per share of GTronic as at the time LenYan recommended GTronic, the share price was about RM1.60 only.

台湾作者肯定年轻有学历没经历。

很羡慕年轻人的勇气与魄力。

青椰在树上观察了很久，很奇怪为什么老椰掉下雖可保住完好，却总是滾得滿身泥。一天青椰自以为地心引力掉下，也没什么大不了，就迫不急待也从树上掉下，唉呀，大事不妙，不只弄个滿身泥还殼破水流。真后悔当初不听老人言。

明显的Up_down 和Jacky 加上我都是所谓的老古董。
冷眼老师父说过：在岸上或池边讨论、练习、模仿游泳的人永远都不会游泳。我看冷眼只怕也是老古董，令人惡心。

Great sharing. It is one of the effective method and step to win in the market. LenYan, one of the most successful great investor in Malaysia does so. I believe if we can practise the same, chance of success would much higher than those exciting “glue to screen” days.

Read from somewhere this is "systemic" risk that all counters either good or poor would drops when the broad market drops. Therefore someone also said not only buying good counter but most importantly buying it cheap.
However TienWah does not meet my criteria as a good counter in the first place. Nice to read your post again.

Many people has concern on its high debt. I would take risk to accept the "manageable" debt. The other aspects of Huayang are those positive points as what you have said. I would accumulate more when price drops below 2. Good luck.

I read 2.20-2.30 as a very normal fluctuation and not a pressed down. In fact I am waiting for pressed down price so that I could accumulate much more. I personally rate Mahsing as a 5 stars company, therefore it is quite safe to buy more at lower price and take double advantages from the significant discount on the upcoming right issue and free warrant.

Slightly higher. Bought before bonus, made good profit post bonus. Thought want to keep long term, end up long trap loh. Ha ha, it is ok, I like salted fish so I have to withstand thirst.

hng: good summary and good buy.

I agree that Utdplt is now very rich in valuation.

Ken: congratulation for the first mile on profit. More is to be reaped.

I need another 30%, hope is very dim. So I write it off first lah.

Mr Lim: From the way one writes, we can more or less judge how far he can go. Mr Lim, as I said before that I have lot of different views with you but judging from the content of your many writings, you are certainly know much more things than I do. Kudos. Thks.

When I said FOC, I said it from the view of a public reader from newspaper or net. And in fact he commented this in a public news conference.

As a small shareholders I can understand the frustration seeing the bull roars for years but the highly expected TTB took an opposite strategy and missed the north boat. What a pity shareholders.

We can and should voice out our frustrations freely and maybe finding a way to vote him out. But we never ever launch personal attack on him, which will lower down the overall standard of our community(mr klsetitan's latest comment is not included). The last sentence is the centric point of my many comments for weeks on Icap.