大佬：I like to chat with you but unfortunately have no time.

一些要点：
知识形，高思维，哆哆逼人，反挑战，舒服讨论课题。

希望我们可以再继续交流。给我时间。

除了她的最后comment on .....shouting....,其他的我是站在她那边的。

Chen123 is certainly included in a few good men. My post was written before yours thus making it seems like you are not included. Sorry.

ProfitMan is another good man besides the fews commented earlier.
Kschai89, you are the very lucky one in attracting good advices from seniors.

Thank you very much to all generous experience sharing to new comers. May God bless you.

inwest88 : I were just doing my duty to drop few lines to the new investors in Bursa. Hopefully they do not make the silly mistakes as I did in the early days. 浅见而已. 见笑了.

Hi: frankly speaking 3% for the last 1 year is low. My simple return between 30Nov2012 to 4 Nov 2013 is in double digit. I have excluded few counters will extraordinary return bought after Nov 2012 and with bonus issue. I am not trying to show off here but just want you to have a better picture of the actual return of other. But honestly speaking, my annual return for the last 20 years was less than 5% as I made lot of silly mistakes in the early years of investment.

I neither have fundamental analysis skill nor technical analysis skill. I try hard to invest with relatively safer way by investing in high dividend, more established and well known companies such as LPI, Genting, Zhulian , Mahsing and CIMB.

I dare not to comment on your selected stocks but I have only CIMB similar with yours. Unfortunately this one is the lowest return stock with only 4%/year among all.

Please re-assess the definition of your “Value”. The Value thought by you but not the broad market is not a real Value bringing you money. Please do not think that you are smarter than others in spotting Value Stock which the broad market does not know.

Simply put in few words, do not buy ( or buy very minimum only) now at high level. Follow up and aim few blue chips or near blue chips. Wait very patently till the Bear hits the market, buy and keep for very long term while receiving dividend regularly. This way, you will beat the market in the next Bull market.

Do not feel sorry for not buying if the market ups for another 10% to ~2000 points. If the money is not yours, it is not yours. 10%-1.2% commission- 3.8%FD, your actual loss is only 5%. What is the big deal when comparing 5% to the high risk associated with 2000 point.

A Very Good Luck to you.

I support the above comment by Avocado_C on Nov 4, 2013 08:41 PM as I have a very similar thought that “……..value investing gurus achieved their impressive return over a long period, not 3 months or even 6 months ... So I m actually concern over the unusual gain given the short period of time.”

In fact, I expect you to support that right believe and strengthen it by giving further substantiations and explanations. Or you may disagree.

Hi: I read quite a lot of your posts, therefore I am familiar with your ways of bringing out your points or expressing yourself. But be frank, for those who are not familiar with you especially those who are not used to direct-style, your ways are a bit forcing. If you can use more substantiations and explanations instead of forcing questions to strengthen your points, I believe it will encourage further discussion in a more relaxing mode. My 2 cents only.

14.4% in 3 months, "beh hiam liao lah", if you claim as number #3, who dare to claim number#2. Congratulation!!!!你也是最好的你知道嗎？（少林足球）

你是最好的你知道嗎？（少林足球）

If you get thru one round of Bear market, your thought that direct investment in Bursa is better than Public Mutual may change. I need to stress that investment in Public Mutual has to be long term and cost averaging (do not time the market).

Let us assume the annual return is just 8% on Public Mutual, I doubt many retail investors in Bursa can beat this mere 8%. Yes, I know that currently quite a number of retail players have return >8%, but be warned that most of the return even your initial capital will be taken back by the big bear at one. I welcome those old senior drops few lines on this.

Disclaimer : I am not an agent of Public Mutual at all.

Correction: It should be when cost ups by 3 sen, selling price ups by 3 sen accordingly. Thus the net margin drops.

In this case, Government is the final winner.

Economically, government is the final winner as less spending thru reduction on subsidy. Businessmen are definitely not the winner as after increasing price to cover the increased cost, sale volume drops as people dislike or cannot afford the higher price. On another end, when public has less dispensable income, they spend less and this is another hit to the sale volume of the business. Therefore with the cut in subsidy, the losers are certainly “rakyat” which includes businessmen.

From the write up, I can guess that the writer (作者：劉國通) is the member of MCA or Gerakan.

小市民？难道小商家就不是小市民？

作者有点言过其实。汽油涨价，多数商品跟着涨。Kopi-O 1.30。当然至少起10仙啦。5仙太难交易，也少流通。10仙=8%。正常呀。

另外，多数商品涨价，咖啡店老板的生活费也跟着涨，所以他们现在须多赚些以应付多涨的开銷。

如果成本涨3%,商品也只涨3%。那么凈利就跌啦。

member41 will be the winner in the guess of RM11.00.

能了解.

能和解吗?

Handsome reward from Hartalega?
BIG BUZZ: Glove maker expected to announce 16 sen
dividend while bonus shares remain uncertain.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20131030000411/Article/index_html

Wow! you are so confident. The best eps at year end should be around 20sen. With PE 15X, price is RM3. With irrational bull around, PE may shot up to 20X(???), then price is RM4.00. I wish you the lucky one. After all, I want to ride on your luck wagon.

2013-10-28 17:29
2013-10-28 17:29 （吉隆坡28日訊）資本投資（ICAP）…………透露，已將緯鉅集團（WELLCAL，7231，主板工業產品組）與偉特機構（VITROX，0097，主板科技組）納入其投資組合中，.......。
根據該公司2013財政年年報，該公司自去年5月31日起，以75萬5千673令吉收購緯鉅32萬零400股，截至今年9月11日，該股市值已漲至89萬零712令吉，未實現盈利達13萬5千零39令吉。
此外，截至今年9月11日止，該公司也持有偉特488萬股，未實現盈利接近500萬令吉。（星洲日報／財經)

ICAP gave me confident on the reliability of management of Wellcall. ICAP as a renowned professional investor has privilege to have insight of the company especially the reliability of its management through interview, visits to the company regularly and professional financial analysis. Even though ICAP might be wrong or deceived but at least it is 10X better than retail investors who do not have any chance to know the internal operation and integrity of its management.

I will buy Wellcall in future, not now, too expensive to me lah.
Thank you

Wellcall's expansion to meet five-year demand growth
Author: value_investor | Publish date: Tue, 29 Oct 10:54 --

Wellcall Holdings Bhd says its third factory, slated for completion in the 1Q2015 will meet the market demand for its products over the next five years. Wellcall is one of the largest manufacturers of industrial rubber hoses in the country. "We are currently in the process of finalising the factory layout and machinery," said executive director Alex Chew Chee Chek during his session at the iCapital.biz Bhd Investor Day 2013 last Sunday.

The new factory will be built on a tract measuring about 3.3ha located 1km away from its current factory site in Lahat, Perak. The company has also reclaimed land in the past few months to expand the total land area to approximately 3.5ha. (The Edge)

Cash Piled Up In Globetronics - Bursa D

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/39531.jsp

Richelchew : It is great to hear that you know Chinese well. Please read 2 books by冷眼《30年股票投资心得》& 《冷眼投资正道》which are selling in Popular Book Store now. The books were written in a very simple and layman’s way. Do not read only, but have to understand and practice. If you can follow him 100%, you are 100% winner in 10 years.
Good luck.

非常庆幸近來没有在股市重犯第一及二條。至于第三條，我是後悔已三年沒犯。以一般大马投资人的水平，買基金尤其是大衆信託的基金，长期回酬是比本身涉入股市來得高与穩的。这是我本身加上周围一衆友人經驗所得出的结论。信不信由你。
Disclaimer :I am not an agent of Public Mutual.

股神點出散戶投資三盲點

（美國‧紐約29日訊）“股神”巴菲特建議廣大散戶“別自己打垮自己”，並提醒散戶最容易犯的3大錯誤。


巴菲特在《今日美國報》（USA Today）的專訪中說：“投資股市的好處是，長期而言股票總會有好表現。美國企業和總體經濟未來將有好表現，因此局勢對你有利。”

巴菲特提出散戶最可能犯的3大錯誤：

第一、嘗試抓進出市場的時機。巴菲特說：“投資人以為自己能夠預測股市短期波動，或聽信其他人（時機操作者）的方法，那就犯了大錯。”

第二、試圖模仿高頻交易員。巴菲特表示，買進優質企業股票，並以長線獲利為目標，強過頻繁變換持股。他說：“如果頻繁買賣持股就犯了大錯。”

第三、買基金支付過高手續費及管理成本。巴菲特說，既然投資跟隨標普500指數的指數型基金成本很低，投資人沒理由付昂貴管理費買共同基金。（星洲日報／財經）

Wow! what a miss that I only realize today that there is a gentleman have excellent insight on property industry. Thank you, Mr FairJimmy.

Thanks in advance.

“ 你猜到、大家也猜到？”, “efficient market hypothesis”,”周星驰: 你是最好的啊 ?”. One day, I would like to discuss with you on this topic and hopefully you are interested then. This is our biggest difference in Value Investment.

TonyLim "Hiar" :you said on Oct 28, 2013 11:43 PM "ah tee : People in our age group says no hard feelings. Need viagra"

I say : In this sense, I am very lucky that I am still Ah Tee.

Hi KC Chong大佬: My many comments above are purely for discussion on concept of Value/Healthy Investment. I do not imply other things.

Anyway your Intrinsic Value on Fibon has not been achieved so in another word it is still a value pick if without the speculation factor. I assume ~100% up in 2-3 months is a result of speculation.

Hopefully I did not offend you. Honestly I really enjoy our discussion as I believe next morning you will come back with lot of points from other views. As I said before, without you, this forum is much less interesting.

I have some experience sharing on "黑白股论" but do not want to digress from our discussion. So I keep it for next time.

大佬: 扪心自问，当初你有否期望兩三个月就急升～100%。只怕一年都屬奢求吧。因为你是正道价值投资人呀！

Discussion :
Hi KC Chong 大佬:
You said on Oct 28, 2013 06:47 PM: “…… quality of management ……..rather than speculating the share price of the company.”

I say:”I cannot accuse their involvement in speculating the share price of the company, even SC cannot too. But seeing that abnormal trend, the probability of their involvement should not be discounted. I guess you dislike this statement. Unfortunately I do not have good bullet to substantiate further except gut feel from field experience. So I rather stop here. My weak arguement on this point."

Hi Tony Lim and Inwest88 : we are talking about Value Investment here. I do not know if your examples on Gamuda-WA and Inari are Value Stocks? Furthermore I do not have capability to tell too. As we do not know, thus both are not applicable in this discussion. My point of discussion is that Fibon is a Value Stock but shots up too high in short time which should not be a behavior of a Value Stock unless speculated by somebody. What do you think ?

我对你们赚钱的看法：
借用小平领导的黑白猫论，只要能賺钱就是好股。賺钱者为王。况且你多賺我又不会损失。我诚心为你们鼓掌。

Hi inwest88 : 我们英雄(你)与狗熊(我) 所见略同.”....I reckon when kcchongnz used FA to assess the value of the stock, I think he(Value Investor) never expect the price to move so rapidly….”. This is my point; a Value Stock can dance with Bull in elegant but not mad manner. Mad dance is for speculator.

If something big (healthy corporate exercise) is brewing than my point of argument (way abnormal ~100% in 2-3 month) is not valid anymore. By the way, in formal valuation, this is not a factor too as it is unexpected or unknown.

“ 你猜到、大家也猜到？”

Hi Housefordo : Intrinsic value, margin of safety, move up……. Yes, I agree that are healthy metrics. But I am talking about ~100% in 2-3 months. Do you think this is rational?

Hi all : Please do not get wrong that I am in sour grape mentality. I just want to discuss Value Investment/Healthy Investment. I join your joys in making great money.

Discussion :
Hi KC Chong 大佬:
You said : “I have done thorough analysis on Fibon in my pick. Do you have anything comments which you think my analysis is wrong fatally?”
I say : I never want to challenge your way of analysis and in fact I admire, believe in and respect your analysis very much as you can see from most of my posting. I did not say or imply that your analysis was wrong.

I think you got me wrong totally. My purpose of the comment is to share my thought that “Value Investor do not want to see this kind of way abnormal return at so short period of time.”

You should know from my postings, I do not want to offend, let alone provoke people especially people like you who is the one I respect so much. I just want to discuss the concept of Value Investment. I gained nothing for provoking you and many in this thread who are very friendly to me.

Discussion :
Hi KC Chong 大佬:
You said "Just because you think the directors do not have a string of qualifications behind their names? Or is it Fibon's earnings is little or its assets or cash flows are not justifiable for its price now?"

I would say: In today discussion, I did not think about qualifications, earning, assets or cash flow at all. I just cut in from the abnormal hike in price for ~100% in 2-3 months. I always believe a healthy company should grow healthily and maybe certain degree better than healthy if the market is hot or the value is uncovered.

Hi KC CHong 大佬:
You said :"Speculation for Fibon? I don't know but what is your basis of saying so?"

My basic is that fundamental and health growth should not be ~100% in 2-3 months.

Do you agree ?

Discussion :
Hi KC Chong 大佬:
You said "Who doesn't want abnormal return whether it is short term or long term?"

I said : "All people like extra return but not abnormal return especially this one way abnormal in my definition. I am not a hypocrite here as you knew I said before I were in dilemma in high return on Zhulian and GTronic albeit their hikes are more normal than Fibon.

But now we are talking about Value Investment which means we value company through formal methods and expect normal return or more than normal but not abnormal. Can a Healthy and High Value Company shots up to almost 100% in 2-3 months? When something way abnormal, it does not meet the definition of fundamental and healthy already. "

What do you think ?

Hi KC Chong 大佬 : Thanks for your commentS on CAR. I agreed with you and will ask more questions later on.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

Speculation or Fundamental ?

Hi KC Chong 大佬 : First, I need to say that I totally do not comment with sour grape mentality at all.

I thought you will reiterate that Value Investor actually does not want to see this kind of way abnormal return at so short period of time. It should be caused by speculation more than fundamental business growth or discovery by Value Community. Worst still is that speculation spoils good name of the company. Value Investors do not like this. Am I right?

All大佬: sorry to pour cold water but it is more of opinion with good intention instead of sour grade mentality. I SINCERELY congratulate you and join your joys of the good money earned. After all, we are in a friendly group, aren’t we ?

CONGRATULATION $$$$$$

CAR :
Hi KC Chong 大佬: I would appreciate if you can be patient(as I am slow) and willingly to guide me further on the below :

1)Now I know how to calculate CAR. Thks.

Q1 : After calculating CAR of each transaction for the last 20 years, can I average CAR of all trx to get grand CAR? Example trx #1(hold for 3.55 yrs) : CAR-11.9%, trx 2(hold for 1.68 yrsr):CAR+28.8%, trx#3(hold for 0.49yrs):CAR -62.8%. Average Grand CAR-15.3%.

Q2: Very short holding period : GTronic, Bought on 16Jan06 @RM1587 and sold on 20Jan06@RM1662. No of Year=0.01096. CAR=6600%. If I include this 6600% into the calculation of grand average (as Q1 above), the grand average is distorted. How should I deal with this?

Q3: Very low denominator (分母) : Notion WB(free, I assigned RM1 to it), 27Apr12-28Oct13: No of Year=1.50. CAR=10434%. Same as (as Q2 above), if I include this 10434% into the calculation of grand average (as Q1), the grand average is distorted. How should I deal with this?

Q4: Same case on bonus share which I did not apportion back to the mother shares thus the purchase cost of the free bonus is assigned RM1 and CAR is in thousand. How should I deal with this?

Thank you

Unless for short term trading, else you will lose ~4% dividend per year on Wa.

So touching!! Now on, I put NTPM into my research radar and will buy NTPM next round as a respect to 李斯仁 and his “仁、德”.

Anybody know profile of his successor? If his successor has 50% of his good traits, it is safe to invest already. I need to know his successor as I do not want “once angel leaves, devil comes”.

Fat: missed you, so nice to hear from you. Enjoy your day.

kytan : Put social moral aside and back to investment case. Wow! If housing prospect is so good for the next 10 years, my heaviest invested Mahsing will be RM6 in few years later. Wa “Jia Bei Liau” loh.

There are many poor families surrounding me including my direct relatives. To them, the only house is for their whole life, some even facing big challenge to pay that only house. If someone is capable for the 2nd house, I believe 30% down payment is not too difficult albeit it may create some financial pressure.

KC Loh : The second house means the 2nd unit on hand. The sold unit is not counted anymore.

KC Loh : in this context, I admit that I am a bit unbalance that is why at the end I said I am a bit socialist.