Nice to Meet You !

Forced retiree? Should be a Happy Forced, I guess.

I have an aim and also actions on Financial Freedom=MCK=Men Chok Kang(in Hokkien) since day one I started my working life. In fact, it is not difficult for a graduate to achieve Financial Freedom at 55 or even earlier as long as they are not stupid and follow financial plan in discipline way. The senior who instilled this concept into my head was now 51 years old. He has achieved MCK status. He does not know much about shares. In fact he asked me a lot when come to Bursa. So far he holds significant amount of PBB and MBB. He has lot of unit trust under Public Mutual, 1 extra house and big saving in EPF.

Few years ago when I attended a workshop on presentation skill, the topic of the final assignment presented by me was “MCK”. The audients were so excited and entertained with that simple and achievable concept. Ha! Ha! I enjoy those sweet memorable good young day.

Nice to know you.

I like this one the most:” Money Velocity – EPF sets up a new department charged with RM3bn funds to look at listed companies locally below RM500m”.

The idea is too great.

Inwest88 : I heard somewhere that in Germany you will be jailed if you make more than 50% profit in trading real estate. To them, house is for your family but not for making profit.

Stockinsider : I did not follow the above posts in detail and do not side anybody but I respect StockInsider as you are much more rationale in defending topics related to Malay, not like somebody who like to use irrational words and lousy logic or totally no logic at all. Really "meng-siah-shio-kan".
(Senior Bull, I am totally NOT implying you, you have your own logic and I respect you too).

Hi : I am very confident that the increased RPGT cannot do the job effectively. But please do not get me wrong. In fact I am on your side to curse the too high price on housing.

If I were the government,
i) 70% maximum loan for the 2nd house.
ii) 50% maximum loan for the 3rd house.
iii) 30% maximum loan for 4th house. If you can buy many houses, pay more by yourself lol.
iv) 50% RPGT if your profit is >7% per year within the first 5 years.

I am a bit socialist, ha! ha!

Singapore succeeds in pressing down the hot trend of property market by far more and vigorous measures. I bet that the 15-30% on RPGT will not do the job if we get a clue from China and Singapore.

Sorry, I have an opposite opinion that the increase on price will albeit slow a bit but it is still on uptrend and those who cannot afford now will still cannot afford to buy the same house then. Why ?

A new condo/apartment takes 3 years to be delivered to buyer. After down payment and progressive interest, the unit is obtained and really for sale with 20% gain tax in year 4 upon Vacant Possession. The increased RPGT from 10%(2013) to 20% in year 4 is not significant to traders. It means only 10% less in profit for seller in 2014 as compared to 2013. Do you think this 10% less in earning is significant to deter the hot trend in property market ? I do not think so. Just like if you have high chance to earn 30% in a counter last year but now it is only 20%, will that stop you to trade that counter ? A trader will not so.

Hi KC Loh : Oh! Now I see. I were too naive to think that you are retiree as you may have big Coconut Farm and selling fresh coconuts to seafood restaurants somewhere in Setiawan. Please do not treat me as a coconut even though fresh coconut is always my first favorite. Fresh coconut water is nutrient rich liquid which is very good for health.

这是很专业的財政分析。以此能力，只怕己比历任财长更财长了。只可惜过去甚至未来好几年我们都没褔气擁有这类高水准財长。
若排除政治观点，把财政预算缩小成家庭预算，你会是潘俭伟还是纳吉？

Somehow, KC is a quality name in Bursa. If I have another son, I may name him KC, ha! ha!

Hi KC Loh : I am not following you, but somehow, most of the threads I visited, your old-happy-victory man icon is there. Thus I believe we have high similarity too. Please chat with us more frequently. Wow ! how did you achieve Financial Freedom(MCK=Men Chok Kang) at the age of 43 or earlier ? What type of lovely coconut for sale ?

Hi IpoMember : I feel that you are another one who have very high similarity with us. I hope you can chat more frequently with us.

Hi Fatinvest : Hey, where are you ?

Hi Inwest88 : I do not know about ICap but I do not mind telling you that I have 9000 shares of PIE and enjoying high yield, else I cannot write so fast about PIE. When decision was made to invest in PIE, I mis-calculated its growth prospect. Consequently, thereafter while enjoying high yield, I missed growth opportunity, thus at last I callously (狠起心肠) sold all and changed to GTronic at 1.78 on 8 Mar 13. As at today, I considered myself lucky in making that fortune move. After this, I do not know if the fortune can go on. Investing is an art of hard work and luck.

My Assessment on apple PIE :

On the management, I knew PIE the most among the four. PIE is run by professionals from ex-MNC- Intel and some from S’pore, US and Taiwan. I am conformable with their profile and competitiveness in the industry. The mother company is Hong Hai(Koek Tai Ming, one of the richest in Taiwan). Mr Koek earned good credit from his community, at least reported so by the media.

Dividend yield is great and consistent. It is in net cash position.

With the above, I judge PIE as relatively “safe” for investment.

On the other aspect, I dislike its biz(semi-con products/services) with just moderate net margin(~10%), inconsistent PAT and Rev( up and down), moderate numbers on Rev and PAT, inconsistent growth or even no growth sometimes. I think the product is in vigorous cyclical nature– not good. The products are not unique and facing stiff competition i.e. Red Ocean biz. Also OEM is not an attractive biz as it is bounded to be squeezed by buyers at their will.

Hope : The main OEM biz of the mother company(Hong Hai) in China is facing compressed margin due to escalating labor cost. Hong Hai is now moving the biz to inland (贵州) for lower labor and maybe one day out from China to Vietnam and Indonesia. Hopefully there will be some orders spill over to PIE which will increase its Rev and reduce volatility.

I would like to reiterate that senior Bull has an ocean stomach.

KC Chong 大佬: I am coming to your house inviting you to visit Wellcall. 一起走过的日子.

送给朋友.没你们, 日子不精彩.

劉德華-一起走過的日子MV
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRzELQ2nsVQ


如何面对, 曾一起走过的日子, 现在剩下我独行, 如何用心声一一讲你知, 从来没人明白我, 唯一你给我好日子, 有你有我有情有天有海有地, 多少风波都愿闯, 只因彼此不死的目光, 有你有我有情有生有死有义, 不可猜测总有天意, 才珍惜相处的日子, 道别话亦未多讲, 只抛低这个伤心的汉子, 沉沉睡了, 谁分享今生的日子, 活着但是没灵魂, 才明白生死之间的意思, 情浓完全明白了, 才甘心披上孤独衣, 有你有我有情有天有海有地, 当天一起不自知, 分开方知根本心极痴, 有你有我有情有生有死有义, 只想解释当我不智, 如今想倾诉讲谁知, 剩下绝望旧身影, 今只得千亿伤心的句子, 沉沉睡了, 谁分享今生的日子, 活着但是没灵魂, 才明白生死之间的意思, 情浓完全明白了, 才甘心披上孤独衣, 有你有我有情有天有海有地, 当天一起不自知, 分开方知根本心极痴
有你有我有情有生有死有义, 只想解释当我不智, 如今想倾诉讲谁知, 剩下绝望旧身影, 今只得千亿伤心的句子, 剩下绝望旧身影, 今只得千亿伤心的句子.

Another good one is apple PIE.

Inwest88: among the 3, I chose Welcall in term of industry prospect, competitiveness and my slight insight in the industry. However CSC has de strongest shares holder which is National steel of Taiwan(大佬) in other word it is the safest. But Steel industry is too competitive with thin margin and high volatility on raw mat and also the unpredicted dumping game by giant players from China. Whereas my last follow up on Tongherr was years back to when their plant in Thailand starting operation. Do not know much thus do not comment further but I do not have good impression that its screw biz is great else it would not fall out of my research radar. Hope to hear from our 大佬KCChong.

OK, please allow me to talk something light and without much thinking.

Before budget, MSing at 2.40 has been discounted for says 10% in anticipation for negative ruling such as RPGT etc. With the announced “not too bad”ruling, the WORST impact in next week is another 5% downward adjustment which brings MSing to 2.28. At 2.28, MSing has factored in the negative news or is in neutral position, thus it will follow the trend of the market thereon.

If unfortunately MSing dares to drop 10% to 2.16, I will buy more for the 4.2% yield with the expected 9sen dividend next year.

Hopefully the above pessimistic view does not take place instead something optimistic happens, such as the new ruling is deemed neutral and MSing catches up the lagged 10% to 2.64. Ha! Ha!. Anyway I am not going to sell at 2.64.
Happy weekend.

“别在乞丐盆里拿钱”

Hi Mr FortuneBull : It should be OK to implement in M’sia if just follow academic theory and compare to Thai and Indonesia which are very similar to M’sia. But in my opinion, our country can get source of income from many other places instead of GST. I am thinking more for the lower income group. I am considerably in a higher income group, the GST has marginal impact on me but many low income families will really be hit badly. I knew it as my surrounding is full of them including family of my own sibling. How about a lot of lower income Malay and Indian? A good people or government should earn money from rich but never and never from the poor. Just like Cantonese saying “别在乞丐盆里拿钱”

“例如，赚1万令吉收入的人，只花其中的一半收入在消费，而在消费中他付了5%的税金，与赚1千令吉的人把所有的收入都拿来消费，5%的意义是不一样的。”

Fully agree with the above statement.

Assume Mr. A earns 10K/month(120K/year), and save RM60K/year.
With the 3% lower personal tax, Mr A saves RM1500/year=RM125/month(rough estimation only as I do not go into calculation in detail) from personal tax.

Assume 3K out of the 5K monthly expenses is taxable on GST, 6% x 3K=180/month.

Net to net, due to GST, Mr A spends extra RM180-RM125=RM55/month(RM660/year). In another word, Mr A saves RM660/year less from the original RM60K/year.RM60K-RM660=RM59340/year in saving.

Mr B earns RM3K/month with zero income tax and zero saving.
Assume 2k out of the 3K is taxable on GST, 6% x 2K=120/month is his extra spending/month.

Originally, Mr B barely strives through each month with zero saving; with GST he will be negative RM120/month.

The above excludes the indirect prices increase on most of the products across the country.

With that I foresee the country will face very big challenge in 2015 and the GST is likely reduced or withdrew in 2017 in preparation of GE14.

NO GST, PLEASE!!!!

I lost in a bet. I bet for no GST since it was brought up in 2005 as I opine that the mass affected by GST is mainly supporter of goverment and it is unwise for goverment to lift a rock to hit its own foot. The biggest portion of lower income population in M’sia so long does not pay any tax yet just barely strive through the escalating cost of living. Many of them will lose in their daily life battle with implementation of GST as now they have to fork out extra 6% to buy dresses, shoes, school uniform, smart phones, TV, motorcycles, used cars, lot of groceries from supermarkets. Please do not be naïve to think that if you are poor thus you should not buy a smart phone.

My worry is the already terrible high crime rate may increase further along with the increasing “financial-failed” fraction of the society.

Extracting out the political element if you think there is any, the article by Liew was very well written. I have the same thought all along but unfortunately do not have capability as him to express out in writing.

If I were in government I will cut expense on public servant while encouraging them to join private sector, provide tax incentive to private sector to take locals instead of all foreign work force. On one hand we have too fatty public sector but on the other hand we are badly short of work force in private sector.

Owner=Criteria Number #1 in stock selection

I like dividend stocks, thus this Wellcall was one of my targets of research since May 2009 when it was traded less than RM1.00. Till today I still dare not to invest into it, even though I am always seduced by its high dividend yield. Worst still is that I know the industry quite well and I buy its competiveness. Up to date, time has proven that I were wrong for the last 4.5 years. So, why I dare not to buy Wellcall ?

Reasons : The owners are Taiwanese. The biz is in manufacturing. The scale is small.

About 20-30 years ago, there were many Taiwanese coming to M’sia setting up small and medium factories for Tax Incentive and cheap labor. They set up simple plants just good enough to run production and generating profit. They did not focus much on R&D and capital expenses to grow the plant. Upon the end of tax incentive by the government and about the end of life span of the machinery, they just run away to elsewhere, mainly to China in this case, left behind lot of unpaid employees and debts.

Wellcall has many similarities to the above but luckily so far is on good side of the story and is still running biz in M’sia. Due to the poor track record of its type, I refrain myself from buying into Wellcall.

Note: There are many good biz by Taiwanese in M’sia too. Few are not equal to all. You should make your own choice wisely.

Mr KC Chong: This is an another example leading me to put extra focus on owners of a biz and explain why I do not buy into your portfolio. Do you still remember my first comment why I do not touch Fibon in the early day and even till today? It is due to the same reason. Time has proven that I am wrong on Fibon beside Wellcall. Nevertheless I am still stubbornly holding on my criteria. I know you are supporting me on my choice, aren’t you?

Correction :
I obtained this from The Star :
For disposals made in the sixth and subsequent years, no RPGT is imposed on citizens, whereas companies are taxed at 5%.

承你贵言

I can understand your frustration. Good luck. And welcome back at anytime you like.

Please think twice the voice from KCLow(11.33am, 25Oct) on PMCorp, it really makes sense.

Exchange View :
"Writer said: I don’t consider dividend stock investment a form of passive income. Why?"

I disagree, why ? Let say I invest in MBB at RM10. Based the current trend, MBB gives average 55 sen dividend which is 5.5% dividend yield per year.

For the last 5-6 years, it is safe to say that MBB grows in net profit by 12 % per year. Therefore after deducting the 5.5% div payout, the retained net profit is still growing by 6.5%. So, after dividend payout, the share price is not only bouncing back to the pre-ex level but in fact another 6.5% higher than pre-ex. All in all, the dividend you receive from MBB you invested is something extra.

Do you need to do lot of extra effort to get the 5.5% passive income? It depends on you. But you have an option to do minimum thing besides receiving the dividend as a passive income. The reason is that if MBB goes bankrupt, means the country goes bankrupt too as MBB is the barometer of the country.

What do you think ?

Exchange View :
The writter said : “Dividend stock” investment is not ‘safe’, in this day and age, any low beta stock that gives a stable yield is prone to be affected by interest rates and market irrationality.

I disagree: I opine that “all stocks” but not limited to dividend stock are not “safe” and prone to be affected by interest rates and market irrationality. In fact, dividend stock is relatively safer than other stocks in this context. When bad things hit the market, dividend stocks are most likely still giving out dividend(passive income) than other stocks.

Hi Wahaha : If want to be rich, you need to be the top player in your field. Example in the football field, there are at least few thousand of professional football players in the world, but only few such as Rooney, C. Ronaldo, Messy ….can survive and rich to the end. Also, there are thousands of Kong Fu actors in the world along the years but only few such as Jackie and Jet Li.…are rich to the end. So if you want to invest in gloves industry, please invest in the best, Harta. Please go to the thread of Harta.

I do not imply Kossan is not worth investing.
Good luck.

Hi maguy : There are two type of exam gloves in Malaysia, NR(Natural Rubber Latex) exam and NBR(Nitrile) exam. Nitrile is a synthetic latex, synthesized with by-products from of petroleum. Nitrile exam gloves command higher margin than NR exam. Most of the customers in developed countries especially US switch from NR to NBR. Harta is the leading manufacturer in NBR exam in the world.
Top Glove is now catching up in NBR exam gloves but still a distance behind Harta. Good luck.

Where our good value has gone these days?

“陈金阙 专业财务规划师: 资本投资上市至今8年，根据今年年报所言，基金净资产值平均年成长约15%， 现在手握2亿令吉现金，端的是了不起的成绩. 不过，本人对基金经理近来频频上报，表示马股市本益比相当昂贵，希望在11-12倍本益比才出手之说法有所保留. 毕竟我们是对物有所值的公司选来买，不是买一篮子贵的市场或其指数股，而且价值投资贵在随时随地做好准备，不是等大箫条之后捡便宜货。我这属野人之见，想来陈鼎武经验丰富，必不以为然，但可一笑置之。我等也不妄想挑战天威，以标奇立异，哗众取宠。”

You claimed yourself a professional CFP, can you achieve 15% growth per annum on NAV for the last 8 years?

One can disagree with the statement but definitely should not give sarcastic remark (暗暗讽刺) to the view of people who can deliver 15% per annum for the last 8 years. You said you purchase those selected value company at anytime instead of great recession, so how is your return so far ? 15 % per year?

I am quite disappointed that when somebody with weight(you can disagree) such as Mr TTB gave free advice for the greater benefit of the public, many people do not appreciate but launching sarcastic remark or personal attach on him. Where our good value has gone these days?

请观赏最热门日本連续集“深澤直树”。非常值得一看。剧情是講述日本银行业的政治内斗与生存之道。

It is now year end of 2013. Thus it is about 1.5 years to get high div in 2015. OK, I wait for you.
KW : Thanks for the info, I have not read the News yet.

FortuneBull : Your strong self discipline is what I admire so long in Bursa but I know that I cannot develop that good kind of trait due to self limitation. This kind of self discipline is certainly making you tone of fortune from Bursa. I always like to promote this kind of self discipline, what a miss that I cannot have it.

Icap’s Mr TTB said something similar to you that “…now is risky, prefer to buy at PE 11x-12X...” on last Sun/Monday but almost all of the people “tembak” him. Thus I would like to reiterate that how good if you could be there at that time supporting me. Oops ! sorry, if I am not mistaken, iafx is one of the people on the opposite side.

Hi iafx : "no worry, so long u survive, there always opportunity"

Sometimes it hurts a lot (Kek Sim) seeing the money shrinks in 17 years out of 20 years. Spending a lot of time and effort in the last 20 years studying Bursa, yet making a loss in 85% of the time. It hurts even you have a tough heart.

But I am "L.S." now as making a good paper profit. Thanks to the Xiao Bull.

“Don’t buy into emotion!”

What a good statement. I think 10 out of 10 will agree with it in Bear market. But in Hot Bull time, emotion is building unconsciously by itself, and most of the people do not want to admit that their emotion is unconsciously high while dancing with the hot bull excitingly. Finding excuses to dance with hot bull is damn easy.

I can consider myself as one of the “old bird” in Bursa but I am dancing with the hot bull too, Sigh ! talk is much easier than action.

Luckily I am dancing with the bull at very slow rhythm(holding good dividend counters and do not sell even target prices have been long exceeded). This may save my life when Big Bear hits.

God bless us.

Stupid Notion, Stupid Me.
Well written article. Here I quote one real example: I bought Notion in 2010 at RM2.17(=RM1.25 ex bonus in Apr12). The market value is now RM0.76. Total paper loss is RM0.49/lot. How about the opportunity cost? If I cut loss at RM0.76 earlier, the recoupable money (RM0.76 multiple with X lots), it is a significant amount of money which can make quite good money if invested in most of the other counters, maybe just simply pick any one will outperform Notion in these 3 years.

Nevertheless, I have behavioral biase that Notion will bounce back one day, so I am stupidly holding it.

Yes, have to agree that not one individual but the key leader. Furthermore the key team (10-20%) had left to Ecoworld. If the new owner is good, that serious talent drain should not happen in the first place. With that serious talent drain, one can judge how bad the new mgt is. Do you see such talent lost in RBS after CIMB acquired RBS ? The first thing did by Nazir was to retain the talent in RBS even though that cost him a lot to pay the highly paid expatriates. That tells the different between Nazir and PNB. If PNB wants land, she can get whatever land she wants from either government or private with the uncountable capital on hand. If not for land, what does PNB wants? It is the” Talent” in SP Setia. If you do not know how to keep the Jewel in the Crown (Talent) of SPSetia, what is the purpose of buying SP Setia ? She wants a developer? She has many under her umbrella i.e. I&P, Pelangi…..already. What for ?

I were a strong supporter for SP when Mr Liew is really in charge. Once they came in, I lari. A biz is run by people, if the soul people is no longer there, must well I go somewhere else such as Mahsing.

BEH TAHAN
Mahsing’s share price is damn boring. Want to “cekik” her. “Wau Beh Tahan, han, han, han….”. What to do ? Ghost (Cantonese) asks me to marry her? Have to stick to her lol even though there are many sexy good counters around seducing me. 我一定要百忍成金。

FortuneBull: How good if you have joined and supported me in Thread of陳鼎武：美債風險‧馬股漲勢欠穩 on Monday, 21Oct13. I felt very lonely defending my view at that time. Sigh.

FortuneBull: yours is an experienced talk and wise move.

I have the same experience/view but not the will/courage as yours. Thus i am still fully invested. Since I do not have the courage so I adopt strategy of " no action is the action" 以不变应万变。Hope God bless us.

PLAY SAFE! PLEASE.

"..一位至少10年不曾留意股市動態的朋友，…拿出..股票列表，…竟發現…，超過半數已經因為陷困而從馬股除牌或清盤，他那無法置信的神情我至今印象深刻。
這是投資者(especially we small retail investors)、也是大馬股市的悲哀。.."

One of the simple way to avoid the above (albeit it is not 100% guarantee), is investing only in Blue Chips such as MBB, LPI, PBB, CIMB, Genting etc. If you like to dance around those penny stocks (even those with excellent financial numbers), the risk of missing some of them is high. I know you are thinking me bullshitting now because the current market is sooo bullish and everything is sooo optimistic. Try to ask those who went thru cycle of 1994 till today, you will know what I am saying about. PLAY SAFE! PLEASE.

Anyway, you will not get rich by dancing with those penny stocks; the extra profit as compared to investing in Blue Chips is not that significant as you thought, though, if you really count the numbers. The only setback in Blue Chips is No Excitement as penny stocks.

Why mostly Bank Counters? Because at least Zeti(Bank Negara) is the gate keeper on the Financial Numbers.

好啦，我己认輸，請回来正题。

我认輸。

Wa Shi Teoh Chiew Lang, like Lee Kah Shing

不講武林、就让我们講賭林好吗？