Hi, Dave! Having breakfast at the mamak shop now?

On the same day as OSK's report, RHB and MIDF have also given TPs of 0.82 and 1.03 respectively. Notice the discrepancies here, which only goes to show that your guess is as good as any of these so-called experts and authorities.

From these three reports, in my opinion, the best one is from RHB. Not only does it mention the risks, it also took note of the fact that MAS' share price has gone down so much that a technical rebound looks imminent. Or so it does. But the problem is this 900-pound gorilla in the form of EPF - I wouldn't want to buy when these fellows are selling.

If EPF is selling and selling, buying it now would be looking for trouble regardless of the `attractive' price. Things are still murky at the moment. Might not justify the Reward-Risk ratio. Especially when other counters offer better potential for the trader/investor.

Volume has become smaller and smaller, an obvious indication of lessening interest among speculators. Mungkin zaman dia dah over kot?

I see this particular warrant as a good alternative to buying the mother. If one feels that Bursa is good value and is willing to wait a bit, then the CZ would be a much cheaper way to place his bet. With more than 7 months left, I believe that's enough time to wait it out.

One concern though is that the mother hasn't been going anywhere for some time already. The last time it was at 6.50 was in July. Now it's just below its 20 and 50-day moving average. The punter might want to wait for this to be positive first. But whatever, I'm now looking very closely at this one.

That's how I interpret the technical charts too. It has closed above its 50- and 100-day moving average and RSI is at 70%. Steadily increasing volume over the past three trading days. It now needs to move convincingly past 2.70.

It's very tempting to jump in right now when you just compare the present price with the 0.80 it was at recently. But the fact that the 0.70 immediate support didn't hold is not encouraging and hints of more shedding to come. MAS simply must go back up to 0.70 today. If it fails to do so, then maybe we should just stand at the sidelines for the time being.

By the way, I'm going to take a risk with the CN. But it must be at 0.02. At this price I believe the downside risk is minimal. Expires 30/10/13 so I hope there's more than enough time for *something* to happen with MAS and pushing the warrant up again.

Bursa is one of the counters that I've never ever followed in my investing/trading so far. But now that you've mentioned it, I became intrigued and immediately did a quick check of it. For all you know, this might be an opportunity for some profit. I remember Passerby mentioning BAT-CA a few weeks ago when it was at 0.05. I didn't buy, and it went to 0.10!

Bursa-CZ; ex. 6.50; 31/7/13; ratio 4.
Now at 0.04, mother 6.26.

It has been going down and volume is currently low. But you might be on to something here, Tony. The premium is definitely attractive and there's reasonable time to expiry. Of course, it will have to depend on the mother performing, and it's rather quiet. But with CWs, sometimes jumping the gun and getting in early is the way to go rather than chasing. Thanks, Tony - I'm definitely interested.

Looks like everyone has his preference when it comes to Astro's CWs. I'd choose CE although I don't have it right now. It's forming a new base after the recent rise. I think it might go below 2.90 for a while. That's when the weak holders get discouraged and drop off. Only after this will Astro go on another upswing. When, I don't know.

Looks like Sime is giving me a year-end bonus after all:-) Now I'm getting a bit greedy too - take it now or wait for more? It's quite near to the ex price, and there's still 3 months to go. On the other hand, have to also remember the saying of "Make hay while the sun shines", and this matter of momentum which @Passerby had mentioned about some months ago must be considered.

Looks like the selling by EPF especially isn't over yet. I'm with @Pak Lah - it doesn't matter what the technical charts say... oversold or not, if EPF (or fund managers) continue to sell, it will continue to drop. Regardless of MAS' problems, it's the *share price* that I'm interested in. Doesn't look like so at the moment but I feel there will be opportunities. The Reward-Risk will have to be justified first. At the moment, no one can say where's the support - "low" can become "lower".

Rather positive buying today. Volume is still on the low side but there's an encouraging improvement. This counter needs traders to come in again before it flies. Let's see how it goes tomorrow; of whether the uptrend is confirmed.

I can understand the hunger when you have to miss breakfast. Lunch is likely no-frills too: roti canai and plain water (while taking advantage of the free wifi. And using the mamak's power supply too to charge the laptop!) You should plant ubi kayu to supplement the roti canai and sardine:-)

Okay, here's a tip: wait for Digi to go to 3.00 HAHA!

Thank you, Dave. I'll ask my wife since she's also my doctor.

This one is being held back by concerns over the general elections. But it's also unpredictable. So often, just like that, there would suddenly be a spike in interest and the price would shoot up. I'm waiting for signs of it - for traders, MRCB is good for a few ringgit in profit during these sudden upswings.

If one is happy with his work, employer and fellow employees, pay rise is secondary. Money is important, of course, but other factors are also crucial. I know of people with really fat paychecks but they'd confide of wanting to leave. They dread going to work every day and are doing so solely for the pay.

It'd better, else my -CL warrant will be zero come expiry date:-)

You are welcome, Dave. And may your Gas Malaysia be kind to you and go up... just as how TM has been to me.

This doesn't explain help to explain my genuine question above. And what has it to do with KC Loh? I don't see any of his comments in this thread today - it's like you... err, snapped. But if it's personal, then I can understand that you'd want to keep it personal. After all, I too wouldn't want to declare to strangers that I'm having mental problems. It's okay, Dave - no need to answer my query. Just take your medication regularly, okay?

"traitorsssssssss!!!!"
"Leave me alone!!! stay away!!"
?? Are you all right, Dave? Or are there voices in your head again?

A 3:2 rights means the investor will have more than twice what he already have now after subscribing, right? 100,000 now + 150,000 rights = 250,000. This is major and it's not surprising EPF is paring down its shares. I don't think it will sell all. But at the same time we don't know how many more shares it intends to sell. And what about the other substantial shareholders? If they start selling also then the price will slide further. Will it get down to 0.60? Not impossible. Everything depends on what the big boys' plans are.

If I'm not mistaken, after a CWs expiry, the holder either gets money in the form of the difference as per its ex. price and ratio OR nothing back if it fails to strike. That's how I understand it. In a way, it's somewhat fortunate that the holder doesn't have to fork out the difference when a CW doesn't strike:-)

The capital reduction proposed: if one is holding 100,000 units now (which is of 1.00 par), will he still have 100,000 after it becomes 0.10 par? Or is there a share consolidation too as what had happened with others, like TimedotCom? Usually, in this kind of exercise, you'd end up with only one-tenth. But the share price will be adjusted upwards, of course, due to less shares floating around.

This is the "BSKL Star of the Week". Went up a lot already yesterday and today it still goes up! But this will have to end at one point. Just be quick to run.

When you start profiting from warrants, especially the percentage gained, you might feel reluctant to buy the mother again. But that's only when it's a good trade - when you end up on the wrong end, the loss will really hurt. But warrants are a great alternative to mother shares. Just be aware of its nature and the risks.

No, cannot... because my hands are always itching and I need to type comments every few minutes.

Oh, no big deal about bad predictions. I've made some too, as with everybody. In fact, you can't participate in the market if you don't want to/don't dare predict things. This is the basis of it all. But it tends to balances out because we'd sometimes make good predictions too. They key is in minimising the loss from the bad ones while maximising the good.

Dave, why not do a favour for those with its shares and warrants, besides us doing an experiment? We can call ourselves "stockmarket scientists" in the process. You had given a TP of 3.00 for Digi... and it went up. Perhaps if you'd do it for MAS the same will happen too? Come on, Dave, be a sport and participate in the experiment: please declare something like "SELL! MAS will go down to 40 sen!!" or something similar. I will contribute by buying King's sardines so that your KFima will go up... and then you can get back your mobile internet connection Heheh!

MAS is too murky at the moment. Even with TA, if major shareholders like EPF are selling, we can't hope for it to rebound regardless of the oversold situation. Anyway, despite many cursing and dismissing it, what with the capital reduction, rights and business record, I'm looking at the bigger picture - the restructuring exercise is actually a good thing. The capital reduction has to happen and previous investors have to take the losses. But MAS will have fresh capital - wouldn't a sounder financial footing result in better performance? However, the problem is the "When" in buying.

The ones I really regret missing this week are from Petronas Chemical. Was slow in seeing the mother rebounding. Buying its CL at 0.015 would have been excellent - ex. price of 6.00. Now it's 0.045 SIGH...

I don't follow the IHH CWs now. Had bought CM before but for some reason it's been inactive of late. The same goes for the others - maybe due to so many CWs around? You need volume to create momentum (and price movement) but this is absent of late.

That said, it doesn't mean you can't make money. But it will have to be with those that are close to their ex price and with reasonable time remaining. One thing I like about CWs is that they offer a (much) cheaper way to try benefit from a projected rise in the mother. But getting it right is the problem i.e. the timing.

One thing I can say though - maybe it's better not to buy those with high ex. prices. They may be `cheap' but can they ever strike based on IHH's record. For example, CJ and CK at 4.00 - that's a long shot. CM 3.42... maybe. But when you multiply the ratio of 4 with its current price of 0.065 (0.26), you'd need IHH to get to 3.68 before you break even. Possible but tough.

Maybe the ones which have reached their ex. prices are a better bet... if you think IHH will go up further (some IBs think it's already fairly valued. But they have been wrong so many times before). Like CF (3.00). But as mentioned earlier, its CWs don't have the volume so they aren't too attractive at the moment.

Strong buying in the late afternoon which is very encouraging. If this continues tomorrow, there is hope yet for my CL to strike its ex. price of 2.50.

No, not the specific day itself but a certain threshold when prices or index go to a certain level. That's how many of these big funds make money nowadays - they trade, not hold (as in "invest"). After this week's uptrend, many of their previous buys have reasonable gains already. They tend to sell to lock in the profits, and then buy again when prices become attractive again. Repeat this a few times and they'd have substantial profits over time.

That was my mistaken assumption when I was a kid - it's better to fish in clear water because the fish can then see the bait and come. Was surprised when an older cousin took me to the stream just after heavy rain (it was in Mukim Binjai, Asun - between Jitra and Changlun). It was murky, of course, and it doesn't make sense to me to fish in such waters. He used worms as bait and told me to place the line deep inside the water. Sure enough we had a good haul of catfish that day:-)

Have to tread with caution in the stockmarket, taking profits when they come and not wait too long or hold too many shares. Nowadays have to be alert and nimble due to the worldwide uncertainties. Can't "Buy and Hold" anymore - it's "Hit and Run".

We don't really know what the US QEs will result in for us. Then there's Europe - it's been rather quiet the last couple of months but the problems are still there. It's just that the media's focus has gone elsewhere. There are opportunities but we must remain alert.

For me, gold is more for "insurance and protection" than as an investment. I believe that whatever the big countries decide on with their debts, deficits etc. gold will be a major factor, either directly or indirectly. When you have gold, especially when it's under your direct control (physical), you will have choices and not be at the mercy of government decisions. But to buy more gold, we need more money... hopefully this will come from BSKL:-)

Have to buy more gold then. There's a limit to all this money-printing. There will come a time and tipping point when foreign countries start saying "No" to the dollar. And turmoil will follow.

That video isn't surprising considering the amount of US bonds that China holds. I doubt whether it will get its money back. Or most of it because the US debt is simply un-payable... unless through financial magician's tricks like devaluing and similar stunts, which will also create turmoil.

And speaking of gold - those bars in the much-vaunted Fort Knox in Kentucky, US... do they belong to the US now, even if they exist? Or have they been used as collateral with China holding the rights? No one really knows except at the very highest like Ben Bernanke. After all, the gold there had never been audited for DECADES. You have to ask the question: Why so secretive? What are you hiding?

What's Tajuddin Ramli doing now? I remember TRI which was one of the speculators' favourites in the early 90's. Seeing how Celcom has gone up, I'd be sore too if I were him.

I see one of its properties almost every day on the way to my wife's office - it's Star Avenue at the junction of Jalan Sg. Buloh-Subang Airport-Shah Alam. Still at an early stage but, when completed, will add value to this area. This area is like the Shah Alam Council's step-children - rather rundown and somewhat neglected as compared to the Shah Alam area. Geographically, it should have been under the Petaling Jaya Council who I'm sure would have taken better care of the area.

MAS-CM, ex. 1.08, ratio 2:1, expiry 28/10/13
MAS-CN, 1.00, 1.5:1, 31/10/13
I'm looking at CK and CN especially since each has its strengths. But the question, as always, is "When". If EPF is offloading MAS shares, then it's better to wait first. The price can't hold when such a giant keeps selling. Perhaps "Wait and see" is the better thing to do at the moment.

Today is profit-taking day, not just for SKPetro but also with many of the other counters that had rallied. This might possibly continue tomorrow. The prices had gone up a bit too fast, too much and having a correction now is a good thing. Must let out some steam, else things will overheat and blow up. The good thing is that BSKL is still healthy.

Rather than shout and scream and hurl abusive comments against MAS (which won't bring anything of benefit to us), why not try to find ways to profit from the muddle? It's that "Menaguk di air keruh" thing - when there's turmoil in the water, using the right technique and equipment will land you fish. Unfortunately, it's so muddled and complicated right now that I'm lost. At the same time, I can sense the real possibility of opportunities - Where are they??

One thing is clear though; regardless of MAS' problems and track record, and regardless of the fact that many investors might not like the capital reduction and rights issue, these are actually actions that will put MAS on a sounder financial footing.

That said, I wouldn't put my own money in MAS, i.e. "investing" in it. There are many other much better companies for that. BUT "speculating" is another thing. I'm not too concerned about MAS future prospects - it's the *price of its shares* that I'm very keen about. And the cheapest way to be involved is through its CWs, with money that you can afford to lose. I hope you guys can share your opinions and strategies on how to profit from MAS.

The formula for CWs and comment below is from @chleong at the -CG thread. I'm pasting it here so that we might have a better understanding of things... possibly find ways to benefit ourselves.

the "adjusted exercise price" for MAS call warrant the formula is this: (1 + (R/S)x M)/(1 + M) x existing exercise price ....
(1 + (rights issue price / last traded price before rights issue x 1.5 (3 rights / 2 share) / (1 + 1.5) x existing exercise price......

take MAS-CK as an example: [ 1 + (0.60 / assume to be 0.85 ) x 1.5] / 2.5 x 1.05..... will be around 0.865 ex rights exercise price.
so i means the lower the MAS last traded price goes assuming 60 sen will be equal to "Square One or Unchange" exercise price. it take at least 3 months to complete the rights issue, i believe they will make a speed it up. so MAS CG already mampus unless the issuer goreng it together with the mother.

Can't stand it anymore - I'm going to jump in for one of the CWs.

chleong, thanks for the formula. I don't have any MAS CWs at the moment but I'm trying to see whether we can somehow profit from the current turmoil. But I'm quite confused and unsure about the adjustments. I'm thinking about the CWs with a longer expiry - CN especially (31/10/13; 1.00). The rights exercise should be completed by then and MAS would be on a sounder financial footing.

Many shun away from MAS at the moment. Perhaps rightly so due to the mess it's in. But I'm taking a speculator's view point - if there's potential for money to be made, I'm definitely interested.

@Namoyaki, where have you been? Your opinions on some of the counters would over the past few weeks would have been useful.

Sime has been creeping up quietly ever since the dividend ex date and the price going down below 9.00. Added another 8 sen today but the CR is still at 0.015. 9.20 isn't too far from the ex price of 9.50 which is definitely achievable. Expires 29/3/2013.

ECM Libra says "Sell". TP 4.48. Yeah, hope they will sell TM to me. I'm willing to give 5.00. Wonder which ECM Libra ANALyst came up with this figure and how.

I don't think the GE would be too negative a factor for Astro though. Unlike with the counters that are perceived to be politically connected - MRCB, UEM Land, Gamuda, MMC and the likes. I'm trying to figure out how to benefit from the GE. We have to be opportunists:-)

The common wisdom and belief are these: "stocks will fall when news surfaces of an imminent dissolution of parliament and followed by the GE." Because "there's fear that the BN might not do well, resulting in political uncertainty." That's what most people and analysts seem to say. Might come to be true, might not. But if it does happen, wouldn't that be a good opportunity to buy at a cheaper price? However, that's only good if they would rebound later - will they?

At the moment I'm not buying too much - just waiting to sell what I already have when there's a profit. The reason is the same as what you had mentioned - about the GE spoiling things. Even if I were to buy, it's for the very short term. Would rather have the cash ready should there be "better opportunities" related to the GE.

Just to balance my earlier comment. I've also made mistakes in NOT selling early. It was/is with Dialog-CL: bought at 0.03. Went to 0.04 a few weeks ago but I was waiting for "a bit more" because it was also close to the ex price of 2.50. But the mother slipped back and so did the CL. It's now at 0.02. That's what we always have to face when we buy shares. CWs especially since there's an added element in the expiry date.

Back to TM-CU: although I'm not going to advise from either sell or hold, perhaps this question might help with the decision - Do you think you can get it back at 0.035 if you sell now? "Possible", as with everything else. But I don't think so... Remember its strengths: (1) long expiry date (2) Ex price achievable (3) Mother on an uptrend now. Might come in for a correction later but I don't think it will get back to its previous low any time soon.

Just be aware of the momentum factor and when traders make for the exit to lock in their profits or to cut loss (for those who came in later).