I've been fortunate with JCY so far I guess, with both the mother and -CF. This is what I see of JCF: it is a widely-followed and speculative counter but one that is also backed by good fundamentals. It is different from other counters like Ingens, Cybert etc. whose business performances don't justify the attention they've gotten.

From what I see, there seems to be only one negative factor - albeit something that's admittedly critical - i.e. forecasts and projections that its next reported quarter will come up with deteriorating results due to perceived lesser demand for HDD parts. But many automatically "deteriorating" or "poorer" results with "a loss", which is not really correct. For the first two quarters so far, JCY had reported PROFITS. Year-on-Year, it is still way in the black. If things are really going to be THAT bleak for JCY, I'd say the management would have chosen to keep a lid on expenditure, including in not giving out dividends. But they did in the last quarter, despite the `poorer' results.

I'm not recommending for people to buy - I'd never do that with ANY counter. But I still feel there's money to be made with JCY although it will be risky. At the same time, it's risky with ANY counter, including the so-called "quality stocks" because there's no guarantee of anything (Sime Darby, KLK, IJM etc. come to mind).

My strategy with JCY is "hit and run"; go against the crowd. That's what I've been doing with the -CF the past few weeks. But you will have to cash out FAST - one sen profit is A LOT and that's the time to exit. If it goes down, then buy again. I'm trying to get it at 0.02 - although the exercise price of 1.22 looks a bit too high, the four months to expiry date gives the punter a fighting chance. Yes, its premium is also high but then this is JCY - with CWs, interest and momentum are more important. And JCY has both.

Yes, both the US and Europe are doing quite well. There might be a spillover effect next Monday. If so, I'll jump in immediately:-)

chelsea168, it could but from what has been happening over past month or so, BSKL seems to be independent of whatever happens in other markets. Last night the US and European markets were okay enough but BSKL is mostly mixed today. Anyway, with the weekend break, the effect will likely dissipate away by Monday.

Shine, it's Affin. It uses the N2N (or something) system which is used by most of the other IBs, I think. I thought all systems would have this...?

@tradersam, Yeah, some very important points as stated by
kcchongnz, richman, super911 etc. about call warrants. It was through this forum that I've learned from people like them... and benefited. Previously, for years, I had totally ignored CWs and had denied myself the opportunity to make profits. It's true that they are risky and will badly burn you when you get into a wrong trade.

But there are ways to increase the odds of success. Among other things, I would look at the premiums - check these in The Edge daily and weekly. Then the volume, of course, because without this, there won't be movement. As with ordinary counters, timing is the key. We can try our best but won't always get it right.

My last `ordeal' was JCY-CF - bought at 0.025 and then saw it closed at 0.015 last Friday. Made my throat go dry HAHA! But I knew it was due to forced selling by some brokers so I paid up and waited. At the same time, had entered a "Good until" Sell at 0.035. Last Monday it rebounded. Those before me changed their price to 0.03, so I was pushed to the top of the Q. And yesterday afternoon, I got my selling price:-) The lesson here is this - if you have done your homework before buying, you must also have the conviction and commitment to be patient and wait... not follow the crowd in cutting loss. Often, they will rebound; provided there is enough time to the expiry date.

For AirAsia - yeah, the -CW is my favourite too. At 0.04, the premium is presently in the teens, which is reasonable. Looking to buy it again but maybe not today. I tend not to on Fridays - don't know what might pop up over the weekend.

Since we don't know what's going to happen in the future (which can be negative OR positive for Scomi's price), one play-safe strategy is to lock in some profits first while keeping the rest. This way you will the best of both worlds - if it were to drop... well, at least you have the consolation of having sold some. Same thing if it goes up - you will still benefit because didn't sell all.

I was at the Damansara Perdana area a few days ago. So pleased to see *MY* properties there. Doesn't matter if I have only a few lots of MK Land; technically I *am* an owner also ya? Heheh! The various completed buildings, ongoing projects... and the vacant prime land. If you'd look at Google Maps http://goo.gl/maps/rGVAj - the satellite view - this is probably the biggest parcel of prime land in KL/PJ.

Yes, I do get exasperated when it keeps slipping back whenever it makes gains the previous day. But when you physically see what you have bought, whose value is verified by the financial accounts, you'd be more forgiving and patient. I feel it's at a bargain and I'll wait for MK Land to reach its proper value. And it's more than 0.45...

Stopped for a breather and to consolidate. The market seems to be moving sideways the past few days. Today's rise in the BSKL index - this is more of the plantation counters rebounding mildly plus Tenaga's significant rise. I'm staying at the sidelines for the moment. But with AirAsia, I'll be jumping in with the warrants again when it moves.

From The Star Alert -- "Plantation Industries Minister Bernard Dompok is proposing to cabinet that CPO export tax be lowered to 8% to 10% from 23%".

Plantations have been beaten down a lot today and the past few sessions. The above could help jumpstart a mild rebound. @richman - am thinking about that one too.

Waa, diam-diam dia naik ye! Have to keep tabs on it because there might be something here.

In this case I've missed out on potential gain. Want to keep the remaining capital unused, waiting for a more clear-cut opportunity. In this kind of market volatility, I believe the chances will come again and again. But good to know that @potenza10 has now made 0.005:-)

We have to separate "government" and "national property" from "BN". If not, EPF and its funds will also be (wrongly) considered as BN. But whatever, companies like this will always be decided by the government of the day, whatever that may be.

Anyway, one thing worth noting is that, regardless of the market's condition, MAS doesn't slide down too much. It goes to just slightly below 1.00 and stops there. Doesn't look attractive right now but all it takes is some news to help spike an upswing. Might be for just a while but that should be enough for a 15 sen or so gain. I believe all the negative analyses of it have already been factored in. Now, if only there's just one bit of something positive...

Good luck! It doesn't take much for it to go to 0.05 or more and I'll be missing out. But I've become hesitant because I still have other CWs and shouldn't over-extend myself.

I'm going to stick to 0.035. Need a safety margin. Have to be cautious and not simply rush in this kind of market. Might not get it at this price but I don't have the nerve to buy at a higher price.

Darn! It's at 0.04 now. Give in to the seller or wait at 0.035?? I'll have to decide fast...

There's more than a fighting chance at 0.035, although there's also the possibility we might have to pick up and wait a bit. But so many lining up to buy at this price. 0.04... a bit risky although it wouldn't matter if the mother were to rebound. Will have to wait and see.

Aiyoo, now I've become hesitant after reading your comments here HAHA! Was/Am thinking about Sime-CR, but talk of falling knives is scaring me off. Have to decide fast - buy now or later...

It's not just the case involving E&O but also due to the weakness in the plantations sector. Other counters like KLK, SOP etc. suffer significant drops too. CPO price has been going south and hit a new low yesterday. But there's a mild rebound today and some analysts say it has been oversold http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/10/3/business/20121003123058&sec=business

But, as we have seen many times in the past, the business environment is only one aspect of it when it comes to the share price. I'm more interested in sentiments - regardless of CPO's current price, plantations are seen as generally stable and dividend-generating. For traders like me, trying to catch the rebound is the key here. The -CR at 0.035, exercise price of RM9.50 and with 5 months left to expiry... as kcchongnz said, it's an exciting punt:-) I'm going to risk it.

@kcchongnz, now you've got me very interested:-)
Following Sime closely for a rebound. But the slide might well continue tomorrow. Nowadays Sime rarely gets in the Top 10 of the most active and an event like this is worth noting and observing. There might be an opportunity here.

Exasperating, isn't it? I'm holding on, forcing myself to be patient. I'd just check on the price twice a day; at noon and the close. From previous experiences, including with TH Heavy (got in at 0.39), there tend to be this kind of frequent spurts of up-down sessions which would shake out the less-patient investors. When it has a solid base of investors with staying power, plus with some new impetus (news of something or other - sale of land, new project etc.), a sustained upswing will begin. The last one saw it going past 0.40. I'm going to just let the market sort itself out.

Not a surprise at all because it has gone up since... what, Thursday? Better for it to shed a few sen and consolidate now so that it can form a sounder base. Can't be too ambitious with this kind of counter which is rather volatile, and hoping it will shoot up straight away.

I think it will. TH Heavy is a much better company than it once was, with a stronger financial footing. Based on the rights prospectus, the management projects 2012 will be a profitable year. But it will take some time before they are really in swing. This will come about after the renovation works at the Pulau Indah fabrication yard. Should it get below 0.50, I will definitely buy again. And I know many people will too. Maybe that's the reason why 0.50 has been such a strong support even when the general market showed weakness.

talk2pkc, hope you had bought Keywest at 0.015? If you, or anyone else did, congratulations!:-) Sometimes it pays to take a very high and seemingly `stupid' risk.

"...go up for sure". A very dangerous assumption, bro, because nothing is. I've got nothing against TH Heavy, that's for sure. In fact, if you look at the earlier comments here, I'm one of its strong believers and supporters with guys like "Ramunia" etc. We were in from since 0.39 and earlier and had bought the rights issue at 0.40. True enough, and fortunately for us, it then went up:-)

This matter of the uplifting of its PN17 status - yes, it might create renewed interest. But don't forget that this is widely known and might have already been factored in. Not saying that it won't go up but just to remind others not to be too exuberant and overly optimistic.

@pathew, don't worry if you had missed this one. Because there will ALWAYS be other opportunities with other counters. The trick is in not buying too early whenever there's a sharp fall.

ongtkong, nothing exceptional comes to mind immediately. Actually, I only have one foot in while the other will run at the slightest hint of trouble in the general market. I'm rather concerned about the developments in Europe - there's the potential the events there would result in a contagion effect. At the very least sentiments at BSKL would be affected. Not to say that one shouldn't buy - just don't go overboard. At the moment I feel our market is a bit expensive and prices should come down *a bit*.

I'm holding a few counters that I feel have the potential. But one would have to hold them for a while. MK Land is one - selling way below its 1.00 par and NTA. But the financial problems of one of its major shareholders, Mr Kasi, is preventing it from an upswing. See the MK Land thread.

Keep your gunpowder dry and wait for `mini-disasters' where quality counters suddenly suffer a sharp drop. These are opportunities.

This one...at least I break even. Went in last week when it looked promising. But then it petered out. Using the capital for something else:-)

sanyobatt, I think this is one lesson that we can learn - when this of opportunity pops up, we will have to force ourselves to be brave enough and buy regardless of the market's general gloom. But this is only for quality stocks, and we should also have enough capital to pick up should they not go up within the contra period.

Over the past few months, similar opportunities have suddenly popped up - besides IJM, AirAsia in its 2.80's was another. Then there was FGV, which went down to almost its IPO. And what about Maxis where there was a sharp fall after Krishnan sold some of his shares; to something like 5.30 or so if I'm not mistaken. It immediately rebounded after that to where it is now. And what about Digi, which went to 4.01 (which I failed to buy, waiting for 3.95)... or SKPetro at 1.93? We might have to wait a bit but with these counters, they inevitably would go up again.

“Never invest in anything that eats or needs painting.” Billy Rose --- Yeah, don't buy and you won't lose... and won't EVER profit from the stockmarket.

Anyway, I'm relieved that it has managed to stay above 3.00. The longer it stays here, the better because this will form a very solid support. When it goes higher, you'll see many people who felt its was "too high" at 2.90 buying when it's at 3.30.

This is encouraging. Regardless of the gloomy predictions of its business, JCY has many followers. Although some have been burnt during the downswing, they are still keeping an eye on its movement. As shown yesterday afternoon, it doesn't take too much for this kind of counter to attract interest again.

Fat Cat, just as much guts as the next guy...probably even less because I'm actually basically timid and cautious:-) But I have a certain percentage of the capital for "high risk" counters, and this is one of them. Forget about its business - with JCY, my thoughts are that it's a speculative counter. That means sentiments and traders' whims play the biggest part, and these can change in an instance. Have to admit these trades cause the heart to thump too HAHA! Came in a bit early with this one, at 0.025. But felt it's worth a risk since there's still reasonable time left to its expiry. Let's see how it goes - if I don't feel good, maybe I'll run away with just a half sen profit.

Good rebound, but darn!...one joker bought only all of 1 lot (100 units) of my -CF at 0.035:-( But at least I'm first in line - had put that "good until" order since last week and I won't budge until I get that price.

@Fat Cat, that's how I see AA too. After all there are other counters that give a better dividend yield, and less risky too. With AA, it's more for capital gains.

With the stock market, one thing that I've learned the hard way is that if one's timespan is just one day ahead, or very short-term, the buys are going to be very risky. Especially if you sit at the trading screen and view the second-by-second transactions - it makes you jittery and impulsive! My successful investments/trades tend to be those that I hold and wait... I'd say three-six months is a reasonable wait if the returns are around 15% or so.

Not just AirAsia - if you have done your homework and feel that a counter has potential, and especially if it's off its one-year high, it's worth buying and to wait for. Just check the price at noon and at the close; not every minute:-)

I am. Besides keeping tabs on development, I will also research on what its future business will be. I think the new management is experienced and smart enough to know that they have to evolve and not simply go about things the usual way.

There is potential in the food business - why does it have to be limited to bread alone?? Companies like Apollo and London Biscuits see to be doing okay enough. It will depend on how the new capital is to be utilised. SB is currently part of my "high risk" portfolio (where it's either strike big or badly burnt) but with the way things are going, I might become a genuine INVESTOR! This will be a first because normally I don't wait too long for any company - one year is VERY long. But I sense potential with this one - the NEW Silver Bird - and I want to be in from the ground floor this time.

Good question. I don't know but what I do know is that it's a very competitive business. Besides these well-known companies, there are many other similar companies at state levels. When I was in Pasir Mas, I'd usually buy bread made by the local companies which is cheaper. SB and similar companies have to compete in the higher-margin market where people in towns and cities don't care too much about price.

But it's not just bread - the other confectionary items are no less important. I don't know how exactly this business works but SB had been profitable previously... until the hanky-panky allegations surfaced. These include how the money from a previous rights issue was used.

I didn't follow SB previously - only came on after the price was in the lower teens, and after hearing about some people accumulating its shares for a long-term scheme. These people have been doing the same over the years with similarly troubled companies. These are the patient type with holding power. There were a few lemons from their investments but they have also made 200-300% gains on capital with some of their counters. I wouldn't recommend newcomers from buying SB though... unless if they are willing to subscribe to the rights issue and can wait. And wait.

Although some people are disappointed it didn't hold onto its highest price, it's nonetheless good because at least it closed above 3.00. Don't set your hopes too high next week, hoping it will go up and up. I believe it *will* go up but it won't be a straight line. Next Monday and Tuesday - just defend the 3.00 support. This will help build up a stronger base at this level. Only then will it have the strength to move to the next level, of above 3.10.

No, no!...I'm not blessing this:-) But I do see your logic and that I'm sure you know the risks here. It will be more of a gamble though because this delisting threat is very real. But at the same time, one cannot totally discount the possibility "something" might happen to create a temporary spike in price - if it goes to just 0.03 (which isn't impossible), you will be laughing.

At the very least, I think you can salvage something later on should in not work out as planned - there are always those high-risk takers who seem willing to buy any counter at 0.005. But this is not for me, thank you very much.

I don't think I'll be adding (although I'm really tempted to at 0.06). My plan is this: hold onto the existing shares and subscribe to the 0.10/per share rights issue (plus get the free warrants). Maybe not fully subscribe but it will be around half of what I'm eligible.

My reasoning and strategy are like this: firstly, selling now will result in some capital loss and I'm not taking that. Besides, when I first bought, I knew this one will have to be for "the longer term" (depends on how one interprets this). Definitely not as a trade.

Secondly, despite this being an `un-sexy' field (unlike oil & gas for instance), I'm quite happy with the current management and I believe they are dedicated to turning SB's fortunes around. From the little that I know after reading the restructure plan, what will come of this after the rights issue, winding down the loss-making and debt-riddled subsidiaries and associate companies will be a new Silver Bird that can start on a fresh note and on a much stronger financial footing.

"Will subscribing to the rights issue mean pouring more money into a hole? What about competition from companies that are (seemingly) stronger like Gardenia, Massimo?" -- There's always the risk. But it's the same with investing in other companies too. This plan and strategy will depend on how its shares will fare after the capital reduction, rights etc. The new shares will have to be above 0.10 - how much higher, we can only speculate and conjecture. No one really knows. As always, it will depend on the market's perception and sentiments at that particular time.

I'm not saying this is the best strategy or plan for current investors. Just sharing with you guys what I think.

Md Raez, Setuju, setuju! And CT too, please. But this one will be more difficult because one movement equals to 50%.

Yeah. And at least the lots seem to be getting smaller. Previously, they would sell at least 500k per day. Wonder why Muamalat chooses to sell this way, in the open market? Can't they find a seller and dispose of these off-market?

These fellows at Muamalat and Mr Kasi really kacau daun. How to sustain an upswing when they keep selling into it?
Disposed 21/09/2012
300,400
Disposed 24/09/2012
170,000

When there's a strong finish at the previous trading session, this tends to happen; of the momentum spilling over. What will happen after this is another story though. But if it manages to close above 3.00, I think this will be the new support line. The ".00" can be either a strong psychological defence OR barrier.

Haha! It did strike 3.00!
Wolverine, what was that we were betting??... Darn, should have put something into it!:-)

No worries. All of this is just in good fun. And besides, no one should make trades based on what others prophesies.

@ueclid, but in real trading (i.e. involves real money), I don't do this:-) Too dangerous to accurately and consistently predict prices in the short-term. And one day is *very* short-term to me. One might get it right but it might result in him being set up for a big fall. Especially when he thinks he's `very smart' and has `a foolproof system'. With trading, I need a reasonable leeway and margin in terms of time.

@wolverine.. Oh, okay, I'm going the other way - it will strike 3.00. At least one of us is going to be right Haha!

And many daring people still buy because there's still the possibility of it spiking a bit sen-wise which will bring in big gains in percentage. It's like those people who buy dead duck warrants at 0.005 - 0.01 will be a 100% gain. With RM1k capital for Keywest, it might be a heavy loss percentage-wise. But ringgit-wise, not so. Not that I'm going to buy:-)

It will strike 3.00 at 09:46:26 today:-)
Regardless of whether it does, I feel having a longer term strategy is better than trying to guess right about its price within such a short period of a few days. For all you know, it might go below 2.90 today, which is not something impossible as we have seen. Not just with AA but also the other counters. Having a timeframe of a few months for things to work out in our favour - I believe this will greatly increase the possibility of success.

As with everyone else, I don't know. BUT if the momentum continues, "tomorrow" is definitely not impossible. After all, what is 5 sen with a counter like this? Heavy institutional buying today, especially in the late afternoon - with these fellows, they tend to continue. Plus they also attract others' attention - institutions, investors and traders. In my opinion, as I had stated some time ago, regardless of Malindo, AirAsia should be between 3.00 - 3.30.