I'm in this one (CL), at 0.03. Betting that the mother will test and exceed 2.50 again within the next three months. I believe there's a fighting chance,

Telcos - TM, Axiata and Digi especially - not too solid at the moment. TM-CU is now back at 0.045, making it look attractive again especially with the long expiry date.

@Ooi Teik Bee - Are you the person conducting the courses with ChartNexus? I'm using its desktop software (the free version at the moment) and has found it very useful. Will definitely upgrade to the paid one in the near future, especially after I learn more about TA. I've been receiving its regular emails - the next course is on Nov. 19 at UOA Building in Bangsar (7.30 PM).

There is this other O&G counter that's in a coma for some time already - SILK. Although it's better known for its toll expressway, its O&G division brings in some two-third of its income. I'd say SILK is an interesting 2-in-1. The main problem is its rather heavy debt which servicing eats away a lot of the profits. But this counter is worth watching for signs of coming back to life. Assets-wise it looks better than TH Heavy.

I don't think it's fair to describe YTLP as that. I'd say it's a good company and counter whose time is presently out of sync. But this will change. "When" is the issue.

That's very true. I learned this lesson with YTLP itself last April. Didn't know much about technical analysis at that time and I bought it way too early. Worse, I shouldn't have done so because it was undergoing a downtrend where "cheap" inevitably becomes "cheaper". I had done my homework by researching the fundamentals of this company and it is a good company. However, TA would have helped me buy at a better price and time.

TA isn't 100% perfect or correct all the time, of course. But with counters like YTLP, in retrospect, its up and down trends are very accurately depicted by the charts. I first bought it at 1.77, feeling that it's "a good price when compared to 2.00-plus it previously was at". Basic knowledge of TA would have helped me from doing so - its MACD and RSI clearly showed that definitely wasn't the right time to buy. It then went down to 1.54. The middle of June at 1.63 would have been a good time to buy when the various signals were positive.

This is the lesson - trying to catch something "at its lowest" is a dangerous strategy (although I still do this, depending on the counter and situation). Sometimes we might be lucky; sometimes not. For longer-term investing/trading, I feel it's better to buy when it's going up and likely to continue that way in the near term. We may have to pay a few sen more but consider that as "insurance premium" - a smaller profit is ALWAYS better than a loss.

With YTLP, I will likely buy it again but only when the technical readings turn positive.

These O&G counters are often in the limelight, giving traders the chance to make a few ringgit whenever something or other is announced. This can be quite regular due to the nature of the industry with announcements of this and that contract. They don't have to be massive - just news of being awarded something is often good enough.

I'm really envious of SKPetro - it seems they'd announce something at least once a month. This week it's Perisai. TH Heavy - it's, erm, "the poor man's oil & gas company" so we can't expect too many announcements. But still there should be something, especially when the upgrading of the Pulau Indah plant is completed.

I feel 0.48 is a strong support and it's a good point to come in at with upward resistance at 0.60 or so. A 12-sen range is attractive enough for traders and interest will likely be sustained if it stays above its 100-Day Moving Average of 0.49.

This is another one of those companies that are fundamentally good but whose share prices have been slowly sliding. It was doing well from the middle of June 2012; slowly but steadily going on an uptrend from 1.60. Had felt it had the strength to go back up past 2.00. Unfortunately this halted towards the end of July when it couldn't get past 1.85 and it has gone on a slide ever since with the occasional mild rebounds.

Will have to see whether the support at 1.52 is strong - if it goes below this point, then the slide will likely continue. With so many shares issued, YTLP won't be going anywhere without the active participation of the big funds like EPF and the foreign investors. Have to wait for the volume to increase and the technical readings to improve first before even considering buying this one again.

The price is "attractive" when we compare it to its recent range and level of above 6.00, reached on 13/7/12 and then 6.30 on 17/7. It then sharply retraced to 5.56 (27/7 - dividend ex-date). However, TM went on an upswing again immediately after that, reaching 6.40 on 5/10. So, when you look at this range, its present 5.51 looks `cheap'.

However, when you look at the bigger picture through its one-year chart, there's the worry that TM might be on a downtrend. Although there's the possibility it will rebound next week due to its technically oversold position, the potential gain of just a few sen might not justify the risk of getting caught should the correction continue.

I'm still new with technical analysis so I might have missed the finer points. But from what I see, TM is now below its 20-, 50- and 100-day Moving Averages of 5.84, 6.00 and 5.94 respectively. It had also reached intra-day "lower lows" since 23/10 (6.00); 1/11 (5.92); 8/11 (5.39) and yesterday (5.38). From a technical point of view, that's certainly not encouraging. The next significant support is at 5.30 - it will have to strongly defend this point to build up a new base. Maybe "Wait and see" is the more prudent strategy with TM and its warrants...?

Sudden fall towards the end of the trading session. Forced selling? Now Dialog is at a more attractive price.

The link from KC Loh - Thanks. Various useful information at this blog. I've bookmarked it.
@passerby, TM had seen this kind of sudden slide twice over the past week or so. But it managed to recoup all or most of its earlier losses by the end of the trading day. Let's see how TM goes next week. If it's in a downtrend, then it's better to stay away for the time being and let the process take care of itself first.

pirate - No, unfortunately. It's not one of the counters that I follow so I don't know much about the mother and its CWs. By the way, really annoyed that I didn't get TM-CU at 0.045 when the mother was sliding this morning. Some people managed to get but I was just a little bit late entering the Q. Now it's gone to 0.05/0.055... Not my week. Hopefully next week will be better.

tony, it's because I don't plan to write anything. These just come to mind whenever I read some other comments, and I'd write them there and then. Sometimes (often?) it's not even relevant to the post's title:-)

Then maybe I should stay away for the time being despite it looking so juicy:-P But the -CU at 0.045/0.05... my hands are getting very itchy.

TM has suddenly slipped. Is this a chance to pick up at a reasonable price or is this the classic falling knife? You guys who are into TA - what do the charts say, please?

Scomi as mentioned by @tonylim - I had benefited too, from reading the comments there. Had done some research on it and felt it had potential. As always, when one has to risk money on anything, there were doubts as to whether I should buy... or whether I might do better with some other counter. But after seeing that KC Loh and a few others were also into it, I went in at 0.215. As with SKPetro-CA, I went out too early, selling Scomi well before 0.30. That was yet another successful trade that came about through participation in this forum.

I was first involved with the market since the early 1990's. But I wouldn't consider myself as a veteran because it wasn't continuous. It was only since March this year that I came back; hopefully wiser from the previous experiences and with a better temperament - not the impatient, close-minded and stubborn trader that I was. But even so I still continue to make mistakes - it just goes to show that this will be an ever-continuous life-long learning where one will just have to try and improve himself.

I was also one of those really unlucky chaps who had actually missed the Great Bull Run of late 1992-early 1994. I was actively involved for a couple of years before that, made some losses (not heavy though) from trading and impatience, and got discouraged. And the bull run started just a few weeks after I left! I was tormented to see the counters which I had sold off going up and up - KLK, sold at 3.60 or so going to 24.00... UEM from around that to almost the same! "If only" I had just let things be...

Now there is one GREAT equalizer which the older ones didn't have back then - the internet and the wonderful components and services that it carries. Like online trading and various resources including i3investor which help to level the playing field. I was in Kelantan during the 1990's (in fact well until 2010 before I moved to KL/Selangor) and there was all of one stockbroker - Lee & Kee. Research was ZERO.

Opinions? It was limited to those fellow investors/traders whom you get to know at the brokerage over the months. You might know 10 or so people and that's it. Often, it's the one-eyed man leading the blind... sometimes it's the blind leading the fellow blind Haha! No one knew about things like Moving Average etc. Even if we did, how could we ever get the computing equipment and up-to-date data to utilise technical analysis? Heck, we didn't even have access to most Annual Reports!

I'm really very appreciative of forums like i3investor - especially the people who contribute in posts, comments, charts and links. Even newbies can be of help - I'd look at why they are so excited over some counter and see whether they are really on to something. Now, before I buy, I'd look at the counter's thread just to reassure myself. Sometimes a negative comment about something would make me reevaluate my decision... maybe cancel a buy. That person might not be right but it's always useful to read a different opinion about something.

Maybe sometimes we get a bit too sensitive when someone contradicts and challenges our opinion. Or maybe we should be less aggressive in giving our opinions. Or whatever. But the point is this - we must appreciate the various resources that we already have here and help to protect these, After all, it's to our mutual benefit and advantage. We are just small fries in a cold, hard investing world which can often be cruel. But a forum like this does help... and a lot too. So, even when we feel we "are in the right", rather than create hostilities and tension, often it's better that we just turn the other cheek and ignore the perceived wrong... for everyone's sake, including ours.

@hattorihanzo is right. Calling and putting labels like sifu etc. adds unnecessary pressure on those involved. It's more important that we just share our experiences and give our opinions here - maybe debate this and that - so that we can be more informed make better decisions.

Its CF warrant is my favourite but I don't dare to buy its CWs anymore. The exercise prices are now some way off and I have doubts as to whether we can strike within the time remaining. It might be better to buy the mother which I feel has undergone enough correction.

But that doesn't mean you can't make money with the CWs. After all, it's just a question of momentum created by excitement (and greed). CF at 0.015 - should the mother see a 3 sen rise in a trading session, the CF will easily go to 0.02. If sustained the following day, to 0.03 - that's a 100% gain. But will it reach the ex price of 1.22 on 28/2/13 from its current 0.785... a 44 sen rise? Not impossible but very tough.

There are those who advocate "Buy and Hold" while others favour momentum etc. I favour anything that makes money:-) Buy and hold has its merits, definitely. In fact, often that is what separates those who make profits and those who lose money.

Two people may buy the same counter and at the same price. One guy gets fed up because his counter doesn't perform immediately and sells despite taking a loss (because he wants to use the capital to buy something else). The other just sits still. Often, over time, his counter goes up and he makes a profit because he can wait. The other person - he may or may not make a profit with his new counter/s.

I've had this happen to me before - I did my homework with the necessary research and analysis, and the counters were very good companies. But I was the impatient type and sold just because they were slow to perform. Needless to say, they eventually went up and up and it was heartbreaking to calculate the profit I might have made. *If only* I had waited instead of jumping into this and that counter!

But we must also be flexible and not stubbornly stick to our counters when variables change, insisting on "Buy and hold" right until the bitter end. We may have made the right decision when we first bought but some factor might have changed after that. Like a fundamental change in the company's business. Or the company being in a sector that is undergoing a downturn (plantations, for instance). In this situation, we will have to accept that what we had previously thought were "true" or "correct" may no longer be so. As such, it might be better to cut loss than to continue what might be a very long and fruitless wait.

Open-mindedness, humility, firmness when required and also flexibility - I believe having these will help with our trading and investing.

PureBULL, that is also one of the reasons why I'm attracted to this forum and have continued to do so although I do get disheartened when there are attacks and counterattacks against and amongst some of the participants here... i.e. in wanting to discover those crucial points of the stock market.

Again and again, I've discovered various useful things from the posts and comments here - important news, rumours and speculations; sound fundamental and technical analyses about different counters; new knowledge and information; wisdom etc. And these would come from different people, in different forms and in different posts and threads.

This is the ever-present danger whenever we give opinions: some people might actually think "we know something secret which they don't" and would place real money on these without doing their own research and evaluation. And they would be sore should these not pan out as hoped for.

Actually, sometimes an opinion can be BOTH i.e. wrong AND right! How so? The opinion might not be right over the immediate term of a week or so but would turn out to be outstandingly so over the course of a few months. CP Teh, for instance, had helped me with a decision over SKPetro - I remember him going in at 2.40 a few months ago. I had been considering it, and was encouraged to do so when I saw his post. It didn't work out immediately but I don't blame him for that... because *I* made my own decision.

And I had expanded on his opinions about SKPetro with my own thinking. Instead of the mother, I bought the -CA warrant. I was wrong AND right with this. It was between 0.065-0.085 during that time and one would probably have lost money had he contra. And then it went as high as 0.29 last week!

That's my point here - as Buy & Sell says, our sole objective here is to make money and the posts and comments here can be a big help. But we must accept full responsibility for everything that happens. We might not like some people and their comments but there's an easier and less stressful way to handle this - instead of attacking and counter-attacking, just ignore these and move on. It's much better to use our time and energy on topics that can help achieve what Buy & Sell, PureBULL etc. have stated here rather than on hostilities.

What Shirley says - Yes, that's what I hold on to. This forum is about OPINIONS, and everyone has the right to say what s/he thinks. In fact I'd say it is encouraged. No one knows what the future holds, and this is irregardless of whether one's opinion is based on fundamentals, technical analysis, gut feeling or a combination of these. Or just a wild guess. Sometimes we get it right, sometimes totally wrong. There's no guarantee of anything...and by anyone regardless of how long he has been in the market or/and how knowledgeable he may be. The onus is on each of us to make his own decisions. No matter how things turn out, the sole responsibility lies with us and no one else.

Live and let live - there's a place for everyone at this forum.

Dialog is down today but it has potential. I feel the oil & gas counters will fare well during the window-dressing period next month. SKPetro is already on an upswing while Bumi Armada has recovered from its recent low. Dialog showed encouraging signs of going up last week and I think this will continue after the holiday-interrupted week.

Okay, thanks. I had gotten out of that one last week. Sold at the same price. But looking to get back in later if the situation is favourable. At the moment I'm just watching things.

CPO price is up by RM35 to 2,359. The problem seems specific to Sime. If it's connected to E&O, maybe this is a good time to punt its CWs...? Maybe not because E&O isn't moving.

Sime is sliding. Wonder what's the problem? Is it something to do with the E&O suit?

The positive sentiments remain and it's going up. These fellows with Astro shares and CWs will surely be in a good mood today:-)

You guys who had bought the mother and warrants last Monday & Friday should make some money from this mild rebound. The EPL announcement is definitely positive as is being translated by the slight rise. I'm wondering how big an impetus it will give to the share price. Let's see whether the positive sentiments are sustained after lunch. This is something that's rather expected, i.e. it's just a continuation of what Astro already has. But it would have been a real disaster had it not gotten the broadcasting rights - this one would have seen its price tumbling.

Yeah, I don't expect much action this week. These public holidays interrupt the tempo and momentum. Attention might be on selected penny stocks.

By the way, the government will have to do something about these public holidays for the country's longer-term wellbeing. Some MUST remain as holidays, like Raya, Chinese New Year, Deepavali, Christmas... and the few others like National Day. But most of the rest can be celebrated without having offices and businesses closing down. Will be objected to by many employees, public and private. But you'll have to think about the common and longer-term good and do something about these interruptions.

This crazy counter is at it again. Today it's down, down, down... So unpredictable.

Oh, okay. The one in The Star is probably outdated. Not just for Tatgiap but also some of the others too.

Has this one gone down too much already...? Its NTA is 1.21 and the PE ratio at 0.435 was 14. Par 0.50, market capitalisation only RM44 mil. Heck, should we combine, we can take over this company:-)

FGV-CC Ex. 5.92; 29/3/13; Ratio 6. Phew! That will be tough to reach.

Getting very close to its IPO price. CPO prices aren't so hot either, dropping RM72 today to RM2,243.

The market is so hesitant, not sure which direction to go. Not much volume either. Even the penny stocks look rather subdued. Going to just look until there is clearer direction.

ongtkong - Okay, since you know the risks. But Astro isn't too high up my list at the moment and I'm looking at the telcos to see if the fund managers are coming back in. Their CWs could be worth punting, especially those that have exceeded their exercise prices. Nothing wrong with those that haven't either if their premiums are attractive enough and with reasonable expiry dates. (TM-CU was at 0.05 yesterday but I was hesitant and missed the chance)

Keep in mind the year-end window-dressing period PLUS Chinese New Year. These are the counters which fund managers buy and I'm trying to hitch a ride when they do. At the moment things aren't very clear despite the seeming rebound. If they continue to offload next week, these telcos will become even more attractive.

Astro's IPO may be on the high side but this is a well-known consumer stock and one that pays dividends. That's an attraction to institutions and longer-term investors. I feel many will buy Astro sooner or later - they just want to be reasonably sure that the big selling is over before they do so.

Institutions are like us too in that they'd want to get the best price possible. "Why pay 2.64 now when you might get it lower next week?" Everyone including institutions have this kind of thought. Don't know how low it will go but I don't think it will be lower than 2.50... unless if the general market also undergoes a significant slide.

I don't like to buy anything on Fridays due to the weekend (don't know what might possibly happen in Europe, US etc. during the two days). Then there are those two public holidays next week. I'm going to wait until after these to do anything.

It's a slow day with most of the other counters. Especially the so-called "quality" ones. But some people simply MUST trade because their hands are always itchy. With the market as it is at the moment, attention will be on the speculative counters. These punters are simply itching to jump in and buy anything that moves. If you're lucky, it will be Pasuk.

By the way, this is one of the things that I hate most - "intending" to buy something but didn't... and then it goes up. Darn! What harm would it have done yesterday had I put a Buy order at 0.39 for 10,000? Could have picked up should things not work out immediately. But the fact that I DIDN'T... Sigh!

Actually with a counter like this, praying is probably the best thing to do. People are either waiting to rush in or rush out and you just don't know which. Very entertaining to watch:-)

Actually it had started to fly from late yesterday afternoon. And has continued today. But that doesn't mean it will be up at the end of the day. Fundamental, Technical analysis and charts don't mean anything to Pasuk - it's a punter's counter. Congrats to those who bought yesterday at around 0.40 - I saw the possibility of quick profits but didn't have the guts to buy like you guys.

@tunkuazlan, this is the essence of it all. While FGV has other business ventures, palm oil still forms the major component of revenue. With CPO prices as they are, all plantations will see a significant drop in profits. These counters had seen a remarkable upswing over the past few years. However, the sector is in a down cycle and therefore it shouldn't be too surprising to see the prices of FGV and the others undergoing a correction. It might be more prudent to stay away from this sector until there's a sustained improvement in CPO prices.

Worrying the correction would continue but at the same time getting so attracted to the current price of TM. So what to do now...? One alternative - its warrants. The CU at 0.045, ex price and date of 6.00; 30/9/13. This should get rid of the itching:-)

joncsk, have to ask the guys who are into technical analysis. I hope we can get their interpretations of the charts so that we can make a better decision. No one can deny that these are really high-quality counters that will eventually go back up again and are worth waiting. But I don't want to wait too long. Anyway, with Digi, I feel it's still a bit too high when you compare its fundamentals to that of Axiata and Maxis. However, the more important thing is the trend - since it's not clear enough, I'm going to stay at the sidelines for now.

Kenanga's Alex Lu made the right call about telcos last Monday; especially about TM. http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2012/11/telcos-under-selling-pressure.html It was this post that prevented me from buying either TM or Axiata in the hope of riding a rebound. Now TM has become even more attractive and my hands are really itching to hit the "Buy/F1" button:-)

Institutions and long-term investors will always have telcos as part of their portfolio due to their defensive nature and regular dividends. But the percentage as per capital will vary, increasing and decreasing whenever they feel doing either might suit them.

During the past week, it is obvious some are now locking in profits by liquidating their positions. Many individuals among us had benefited by hitching a ride earlier on and rode the upswing. But those who came in late have been left high and dry, and this includes some institutions too. When we read about "institutions", "foreign funds" etc. we tend to think that they are acting in concert and forget that they are *individual* organizations whose managers are trying to out-perform the others. Just like us, these funds would also lose money at times when they get in at the wrong time.

After the correction, these telco counters have become more attractive. But that doesn't automatically mean they are also a "Buy" at the moment. There will be mild rebounds but what is of prime concern is "the trend" - if they are on a downtrend, it wouldn't be prudent to risk our capital just to make a few sen. We have seen this before where "cheap" becomes "cheaper". These counters need big buyers to go back to their previous level; if they don't come back immediately, these counters will not be going anywhere.

I'm very interested in these counters but am wondering whether now is a good time to buy. Alex Lu's post of last Monday about "Telcos under selling pressure" and his subsequent comments are worth noting:
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2012/11/telcos-under-selling-pressure.html

That's what the fund managers do - the sell AND buy at different times. Even within one organization - EPF for instance - there are different managers with their own portfolios. When one guy's counter goes up, he'll sell to lock in the profit. The following day, his colleague might buy the same thing. Even within the same organization, it's every man for himself ad for his portfolio only. He doesn't care whether his colleagues make a loss.

I've been sitting by the sidelines and not buying anything just yet - AirAsia, Astro etc. But if these two come down to an attractive-enough level, then I'm in again. Have to also consider the coming GE and the knee-jerk reaction it will cause initially when it's about to be announced. Counters like MRCB, UEM Land, Gamuda etc. will likely be affected. But AirAsia and Astro won't be affected too badly.

By the way, the -CW -- at 0.03 it's worth a risk. But must see how the mother performs tomorrow.

If you are the cowboy type who doesn't give two hoots about fundamentals, this counter is worth watching tomorrow. Will it rebound? I certainly don't know. But with a goreng counter like this, anything is possible. Would it really be a surpise should it go to 0.50 or more in the next couple of sessions?

RHB says "Buy", TP 7.15. It might reach this price, but not in the foreseeable future. When fund managers are selling, it's more prudent to let this pass first before attempting to pick up `bargains'. With counters like Axiata, it is their actions that move the price. For us small fries, it's much better to try hitch a ride with them.

This one is sliding fast! It had looked stable earlier on buy suddenly, just like that, it went down. But somehow I'm not really surprised with this kind of (very) speculative counter.

The dividend's ex-date is today and yet it still drops. That means those sellers are forsaking the dividend just to get back their capital (they are either locking in the profit albeit being reduced since they didn't sell earlier, or to cut loss). It stands to reason that there will likely be more selling from tomorrow onwards by those who had ensured their dividend by holding on today. This doesn't look promising. Maybe it's better to wait and see how it goes from tomorrow onwards.